CO2-induced climate change in northern Europe: CMIP2 versus CMIP3 versus CMIP5

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 45, Issue 7-8, 2015, Pages 1877-1897

  Räisänen, Jouni ^a   Ylhäisi, Jussi S ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HELSINKI   (Finland)

Author keywords

Climate change; CMIP; Energy balance; Northern Europe; Precipitation; Sea level pressure; Temperature; Water balance

Indexed keywords

AIR TEMPERATURE; CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; ENERGY BALANCE; GLOBAL WARMING; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); PRESSURE GRADIENT; SEA LEVEL PRESSURE; WATER BUDGET;

NORTHERN EUROPE;

EID: 84943814418     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2440-x     Document Type: Article

References (43)

1. Arzel O, Fichefet T, Goosse H (2006) Sea ice evolution over the 20th and 21st centuries as simulated by current AOGCMs. Ocean Model 12:401–415
2. Boer GJ, Yu B (2003) Climate sensitivity and response. Clim Dyn 20:415–429
3. Boucher O, Randall D, Artaxo P, Bretherton C, Feingold G, Forster P, Kerminen V-M, Kondo Y, Liao H, Lohmann U, Rasch P, Satheesh SK, Sherwood S, Stevens B, Zhang XY (2013) Clouds and Aerosols. In: Stocker TF et al (eds) Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 571–658
4. Bracegirdle TJ, Stephenson DB (2012) Higher precision estimates of regional polar warming by ensemble regression of climate model projections. Clim Dyn 39:2805–2821
5. Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A, Chen A, Gao X, Held I, Jones R, Kolli RK, Kwon W-T, Laprise R, Magaña Rueda V, Mearns L, Menéndez CG, Räisänen J, Rinke A, Sarr A, Whetton P (2007) Regional climate projections. In: Solomon S et al (eds) Climate Change 2007: the Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 847–940
6. Collins M, Knutti R, Arblaster J, Dufresne J-L, Fichefet T, Friedlingstein P, Gao X, Gutowski WJ, Johns T, Krinner G, Shongwe M, Tebaldi C, Weaver AJ, Wehner M (2013) Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility. In: Stocker TF et al (eds) Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 1029–1136
7. Covey C, AchutaRao KM, Cubasch U, Jones P, Lambert SJ, Mann ME, Phillips TJ, Taylor KE (2003) An overview of results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Global Planet Change 37:103–133
8. Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S, Andrae U, Balmaseda MA, Balsamo G, Bauer P, Bechtold P, Beljaars ACM, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Delsol C, Dragani R, Fuentes M, Geer AJ, Haimberger L, Healy SB, Hersbach H, Hólm EV, Isaksen L, Kållberg P, Köhler M, Matricardi M, McNally AP, Monge-Sanz BM, Morcrette J-J, Park B-K, Peubey C, de Rosnay P, Tavolato C, Thépaut J-N, Vitart F (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart J Roy Meteorol Soc 137:553–597
9. Feichter J, Roeckner E, Lohmann U, Liepert B (2004) Nonlinear aspects of the climate response to greenhouse gas and aerosol Forcing. J Clim 17:2384–2398
10. Flato G, Marotzke J, Abiodun B, Braconnot P, Chou SC, Collins W, Cox P, Driouech F, Emori S, Eyring V, Forest C, Gleckler P, Guilyardi E, Jakob C, Kattsov V, Reason C, Rummukainen M (2013) Evaluation of Climate Models. In: Stocker TF et al (eds) Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 741–866
11. Frieler K, Meinshausen M, Mengel M (2012) A scaling approach to probabilistic assessment of regional climate change. J Climate 25:3117–3144
12. Haarsma RJ, Hazeleger W, Severijns C, de Vries H, Sterl A, Bintanja R, van Oldenborgh GJ, van den Brink HW (2013) More hurricanes to hit western Europe due to global warming. Geophys Res Lett 40:1783–1788
13. Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ, Lister DH (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations—the CRU TS3.10 Dataset. Int J Climatol 34:623–642
14. IPCC (2013) Annex II: Climate System Scenario Tables. In: Stocker TF et al (eds) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, pp. 1395-1445
15. Izumi K, Bartlein PJ, Harrison SP (2014) Energy-balance mechanisms underlying consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2189-2
16. Jylhä K, Tuomenvirta H, Ruosteenoja K (2004) Climate change projections for Finland during the 21st century. Boreal Env Res 9:127–152
17. Karppanen J (2006) Climate change in northern Europe based on AR4 climate models: comparison and analysis. MSc thesis, Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, Helsinki
18. Knutti R, Masson D, Gettelman A (2013) Climate model genealogy: Generation CMIP5 and how we got there. Geophys Res Lett 40:1194–1199
19. Lu J, Cai M (2009) A new framework for isolating individual feedback processes in coupled general circulation climate models. Part I: formulation. Clim Dyn 32:873–885
20. Masson D, Knutti R (2011) Climate model genealogy. Geophys Res Lett 38:L08703
21. McAvaney BJ, Covey C, Joussame S, Kattsov V, Kitoh A, Ogana W, Pitman AJ, Weaver AJ, Wood RA, Zhao Z-C (2001) Model Evaluation. In: Houghton JT et al (eds) Climate Change 2001: the Scientific Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 471–525
22. Meehl GA, Boer GJ, Covey C, Latif M, Stouffer RJ (2000) The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Bull Am Meteor Soc 81:313–318
23. Meehl GA, Boer GJ, Stouffer RJ, Dix M, Noda A, Senior CA, Raper SCB, Yap KS (2001) Projections of future climate change. In: Houghton JT et al (eds) Climate Change 2001: the Scientific Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 526–582
24. Meehl GA, Covey C, Delworth T, Latif M, McAvaney B, Mitchell JFB, Stouffer RJ, Taylor KE (2007a) The WCRP CMIP3 Multimodel Dataset: a New Era in Climate Change Research. Bull Am Meteor Soc 88:1383–1394
25. Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins W, Friedlingstein P, Gaye A, Gregory J, Kitoh A, Knutti R, Murphy J, Noda A, Raper S, Watterson I, Weaver A, Zhao Z-C (2007b) Global Climate Projections. In: Solomon S et al (eds) Climate Change 2007: the Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 747–845
26. 2 climate sensitivity and model dependence of the results. Quart J Roy Meteorol Soc 113:293–322
27. Muller GJ, O´Gorman PA (2011) An energetic perspective on the regional response of precipitation to climate change. Nat Clim Change 1:266–271
28. Myhre G, Shindell D, Bréon F-M, Collins W, Fuglestvedt J, Huang J, Koch D, Lamarque J-F, Lee D, Mendoza B, Nakajima T, Robock A, Stephens G, Takemura T, Zhang H (2013) Anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing. In: Stocker TF et al (eds) Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 659–740
29. Nakićenović N, Alcamo J, Davis G, de Vries B, Fenhann J, Gaffin S, Gregory K, Grübler A, Jung TY, Kram T, La Rovere EL, Michaelis L, Mori S, Morita T, Pepper W, Pitcher H, Price L, Raihi K, Roehrl A, Rogner H-H, Sankovski A, Schlesinger M, Shukla P, Smith S, Swart R, van Rooijen S, Victor N, Dadi Z (2000) Emission scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 599 p
30. Qu X, Hall A (2006) Assessing snow albedo feedback in simulated climate change. J Clim 19:2617–2630
31. Räisänen J (1994) A comparison of the results of seven GCM experiments in northern Europe. Geophysica 30:3–30
32. 2-induced climate change in northern Europe: comparison of 12 CMIP2 experiments. Report Meteorology and Climatology No. 87, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 59 pp
33. Räisänen J (2001a) Hiilidioksidin lisääntymisen vaikutus Pohjois-Euroopan ilmastoon globaaleissa ilmastomalleissa (The impact of increasing carbon dioxide on the climate of northern Europe in global climate models; in Finnish with English abstract and figure and table captions). Terra 113:139–151
34. 2-induced climate change in CMIP2 experiments. Quantification of agreement and role of internal variability. J Clim 14:2088–2104
35. Räisänen J (2007) How reliable are climate models? Tellus 59A:2–29
36. 2-induced climate change in Northern Europe. In: Kulmala M, Lintunen A, Kontkanen J (eds) Proceedings of ‘The Center of Excellence in Atmospheric Sciences (CoE ATM)—from Molecular and Biological Processes to the Global Climate’ annual meeting 2014, Finnish Association for Aerosol Research Report Series in Aerosol Science 153: 546–550
37. Randall DA, Wood RA, Bony S, Colman R, Fichefet T, Fyfe J, Kattsov V, Pitman A, Shukla J, Srinivasan J, Stouffer RJ, Sumi A, Taylor KE (2007) Climate models and their evaluation. In: Solomon S et al (eds) Climate Change 2007: the Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 589–662
38. Rienecker MM, Suarez MJ, Gelaro R, Todling R, Bacmeister J, Liu E, Bosilovich MG, Schubert SD, Takacs L, Kim G-K, Bloom S, Chen J, Collins D, Conaty A, da Silva A, Gu W, Joiner J, Koster RD, Lucchesi L, Molod A, Owens T, Pawson S, Pegion P, Redder CR, Reichle R, Robertson FR, Ruddick AG, Sienkiewicz M, Woollen J (2011) MERRA—NASA’s modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications. J Clim 24:3624–3648
39. Soden BJ, Broccoli AJ, Hemler RS (2004) On the use of cloud forcing to estimate cloud feedback. J Clim 17:3661–3665
40. Taylor KE (2001) Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram. J Geophys Res 106D:7183–7192
41. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteor Soc 93:485–498
42. van Vuuren DP, Edmons J, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Thomson A, Hibbard K, Hurtt GC, Kram T, Krey V, Lamarque J-F, Masui T, Meinshausen M, Nakićenović N, Smith SJ, Rose SK (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Change 109:5–31
43. Yin JH (2005) A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate. Geophys Res Lett 32:L18701