More hurricanes to hit western Europe due to global warming

Geophysical Research Letters

Volumn 40, Issue 9, 2013, Pages 1783-1788

  Haarsma, Reindert J ^a   Hazeleger, Wilco ^a   Severijns, Camiel ^a   De Vries, Hylke ^a   Sterl, Andreas ^a   Bintanja, Richard ^a   Van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan ^a   Van Den Brink, Henk W ^a  

^a ROYAL NETHERLANDS METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE KNMI   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

Climate; Global warming; Hurricanes

Indexed keywords

BREEDING GROUNDS; CLIMATE; GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL; GREENHOUSE WARMING; MODEL SIMULATION; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST); TROPICAL CYCLONE; VERY HIGH RESOLUTION;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE MODELS; COMPUTER SIMULATION; GLOBAL WARMING;

HURRICANES;

BAROCLINIC MOTION; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE MODELING; GLOBAL CLIMATE; GLOBAL WARMING; HURRICANE; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SEASONALITY;

WESTERN EUROPE;

EID: 84879086943     PISSN: 00948276     EISSN: 19448007     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/grl.50360     Document Type: Article

References (24)

1. Bender, M. A., T. R. Knutson, R. E. Tuleya, J. J. Sirutis, G. A. Vecchi, S. T. Garner, and, I. M. Held, (2010), Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming of the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes, Science, 327, 454-458.
2. Bengtsson, L., K. I. Hodges, and, E. Roeckner, (2006), Storm tracks and climate change, J. Clim., 19, 3518-3543.
3. Bengtsson, L., K. I. Hodges, and, N. Keenlyside, (2009), Will extratropical storms intensify in a warmer climate?, J. Clim., 22, 2276-2301.
4. Dorland, C., R. S. J. Tol, and, J. P. Palutikof, (1999), Vulnerability of the Netherlands and Northwest Europe to storm damage under climate change, Clim. Change, 43, 513-535.
5. Gitelman, A. I., J. S. Risbey, R. E. Kass, and, R. D. Rosen, (1997), Trends in the surface meridional temperature gradient, Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 1243-1246.
6. Gray, W. M., and, C. W. Landsea, (1992), African rainfall as a precursor of hurricane-related destruction on the U.S. east coast, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 73, 1352-1364.
7. Hart, R. E., (2003), A cyclone phase space derived from thermal wind and thermal asymmetry, Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 585-616.
8. Hart, R. E., and, J. L. Evans, (2001), A climatology of the extratropical transition of Atlantic tropical cyclones, J. Clim., 14, 546-564.
9. Hazeleger, W., et al. (2010), EC-Earth: A Seamless Earth-System Prediction Approach in Action, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1357-1363.
10. Jones, S. C., et al. (2003), The extra-tropical transition of tropical cyclones: Forecast challenges, current understanding and future directions, Wea. Forecasting, 18, 1052-1092.
11. Knutson, T. R., J. McBride, J. Chan, K. Emanuel, G. Holland, C. Landsea, I. M. Held, J. P. Kossin, A. K. Srivastava, and, M. Sugi, (2010), Tropical cyclones and climate change, Nat. Geosci., 3, 157-163.
12. Lambert, S. J., and, J. C. Fyfe, (2006), Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: Results from the models participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise, Clim. Dyn., 26, 713-728.
13. Leckebusch, G. C., and, U. Ulbrich, (2004), On the relationship between cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change, Global Planet. Change, 44, 181-193.
14. Loptien, U., O. Zolina, S. Gulev, M. Latif, and, V. Soloviov, (2008), Cyclone life cycle characteristics over the Northern Hemisphere in coupled GCMs, Clim. Dyn., 31, 507-532.
15. Lorenz, D. J., and, E. T. DeWeaver, (2007), Tropopause height and zonal wind response to global warming in the IPCC scenario integrations, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D10119, doi: 10.1029/2006JD008087.
16. Murakami, H., et al. (2012), Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity Projected by the New High-Resolution MRI-AGCM, J. Clim., 25, 3237-3260.
17. Rogelj, J., M. Meinshausen, and, R. Knutti, (2012), Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates, Nature Clim. Change, 2, 248-253, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1385.
18. Rossby, C. G., (1948), On the displacement and intensity changes of atmospheric vortices, J. Mar. Res., 7, 175-196.
19. Sterl, A., C. Severijns, H. Dijkstra, W. Hazeleger, G. J. van Oldenborgh, M. van den Broeke, G. Burgers, B. van den Hurk, P. J. van Leeuwen, and, P. van Velthoven, (2008), When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L14703, doi: 10.1029/2008GL034071.
20. Sterl, A., H. van den Brink, H. de Vries, R. J. Haarsma, and, E. van Meijgaard, (2009), An ensemble study of extreme North Sea storm surges in a changing climate, Ocean Sci., 5, 369-378.
21. Ulbrich, U., J. G. Pinto, H. Kupfer, G. C. Leckebusch, T. Spangehl, and, M. Reyers, (2008), Changing Northern Hemisphere storm tracks in an ensemble of IPCC climate change simulations, J. Clim., 21, 1669-1679.
22. van Vuuren, D. P., et al. (2011), The representative concentration pathways: an overview, Clim. Change, 109, 5-31.
23. Wang, C., H. Liu, S.-K. Lee, and, R. Atlas, (2011), Impact of the Atlantic warm pool on United States landfalling hurricanes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L19702, doi: 10.1029/2011GL049265.
24. Zhao, M., and, I. M. Held, (2012), TC-Permitting GCM Simulations of Hurricane Frequency Response to Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Projected for the Late-Twenty-First Century, J. Clim., 25, 2995-3009.