Chicago's heat island and climate change: Bridging the scales via dynamical downscaling

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Volumn 54, Issue 7, 2015, Pages 1430-1448

  Conry, Patrick ^a   Sharma, Ashish ^b   Potosnak, Mark J ^c   Leo, Laura S ^a   Bensman, Edward ^a   Hellmann, Jessica J ^b   Fernando, Harindra J S ^a  

^a University of Notre Dame   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF NOTRE DAME   (United States)

^c DEPAUL UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; Coupled models; Heat islands; Lake effects

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CHAINS; CLIMATE MODELS; LAKES; SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT; WEATHER FORECASTING;

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT; COMMUNITY ATMOSPHERE MODEL; COUPLED MODELS; GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES; HEAT ISLAND; LAKE EFFECTS; METEOROLOGICAL FORCING; WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING MODELS;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; DOWNSCALING; GLOBAL CLIMATE; HEAT ISLAND; REGIONAL CLIMATE; URBAN CLIMATE;

CHICAGO; ILLINOIS; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84943811885     PISSN: 15588424     EISSN: 15588432     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0241.1     Document Type: Article

References (89)

1. Ali-Toudert, F., and H. Mayer, 2006: Numerical study on the effects of aspect ratio and orientation of an urban street canyon on outdoor thermal comfort in hot and dry climate. Build. Environ., 41, 94-108, doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2005.01.013.
2. Baik, J.-J., S.-B. Park, and J.-J. Kim, 2009: Urban flow and dispersion simulations using a CFD model coupled to a mesoscale model. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 48, 1667-1681, doi:10.1175/2009JAMC2066.1.
3. Bouyer, J., C. Inard, and M. Musy, 2011: Microclimatic coupling as a solution to improve building energy simulation in an urban context. Energy Build., 43, 1549-1559, doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2011.02.010.
4. Brown, M., and Coauthors, 2001: Multiscale modeling of air flow in Salt Lake City and surrounding region. Proc. ASCE Structures Congress 2001, Washington, DC, American Society of Civil Engineers, doi:10.1061/40558(2001)96.
5. Bruse, M., and H. Fleer, 1998: Simulating surface-plant-air interactions inside urban environment with a three dimensional numerical model. Environ. Modell. Software, 13, 373-384, doi:10.1016/S1364-8152(98)00042-5.
6. Chen, F., and Coauthors, 2011: The integrated WRF/urban modelling system: Development, evaluation, and applications to urban environmental problems. Int. J. Climatol., 31, 273-288, doi:10.1002/joc.2158.
7. Chen, F., and Coauthors, 2012: Research priorities in observing and modeling urban weather and climate. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 1725-1728, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00217.1.
8. Chen, Y., and N. H. Wong, 2006: Thermal benefits of city parks. Energy Build., 38, 105-120, doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2005.04.003.
9. Ching, J. K. S., 2013: A perspective on urban canopy layer modeling for weather, climate and air quality applications. Urban Climate, 3, 13-39, doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2013.02.001.
10. Chow, W. T. L., and A. J. Brazel, 2012: Assessing xeriscaping as a sustainable heat island mitigation approach for a desert city. Build. Environ., 47, 170-181, doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2011.07.027.
11. Chow, W. T. L., R. L. Pope, C. A. Martin, and A. J. Brazel, 2011: Observing and modeling the nocturnal park cool island of an arid city: Horizontal and vertical impacts. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 103, 197-211, doi:10.1007/s00704-010-0293-8.
12. Coffee, J. E., J. Parzen, M. Wagstaff, and R. S. Lewis, 2010: Preparing for a changing climate: The Chicago Climate Action Plan's adaptation strategy. J. Great Lakes Res., 36, 115-117, doi:10.1016/j.jglr.2009.11.011.
13. Coirier, W. J., D. M. Fricker, M. Furmanczyk, and S. Kim, 2005: A computational fluid dynamics approach for urban area transport and dispersion modeling. Environ. Fluid Mech., 5, 443-479, doi:10.1007/s10652-005-0299-4.
14. Conry, P., A. Sharma, H. J. S. Fernando, M. Potosnak, L. S. Leo, and J. Hellmann, 2014a: Multi-scale simulations of climatechange influence on Chicago heat island. Proc. Fourth Joint US-European Fluids Engineering Division Summer Meeting, Chicago, IL, American Society of Mechanical Engineers, doi:10.1115/FEDSM2014-21581.
15. Conry, P., A. Sharma, M. Potosnak, J. Hellmann, and H. J. S. Fernando, 2014b: Multi-scale study of Chicago heat island and the impacts of climate change. Proc. 11th Symp. on the Urban Environment, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 3.6. [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/94Annual/webprogram/Paper235996.html.]
16. Crawley, D. B., J. W. Hand, M. Kummert, and B. T. Griffith, 2008: Contrasting the capabilities of building energy performance simulation programs. Build. Environ., 43, 661-673, doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2006.10.027.
17. Dallman, A., S. Di Sabatino, and H. J. S. Fernando, 2013: Flow and turbulence in an industrial/suburban roughness canopy. Environ. Fluid Mech., 13, 279-307, doi:10.1007/s10652-013-9274-7.
18. Dimitrova, R., J. Sini, K. Richards, M. Schatzmann, M. Weeks, E. Perez Garcia, and C. Borrego, 2009: Influence of the thermal effects on the wind field with the urban environment. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 131, 223-243, doi:10.1007/s10546-009-9368-4.
19. DOE, 2013: EnergyPlus engineering reference: The reference to EnergyPlus calculations (in case you want or need to know). U.S. Department of Energy Rep., 1417 pp. [Available online at http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/energyplus/pdfs/engineeringreference.pdf.]
20. Emmanuel, R., and H. J. S. Fernando, 2007: Urban heat islands in humid and arid climates: Role of urban form and thermal properties in Colombo, Sri Lanka and Phoenix, USA. Climate Res., 34, 241-251, doi:10.3354/cr00694.
21. Emmel, M. G., M. O. Abadie, and N. Mendes, 2007: New external convective heat transfer coefficient correlations for isolated low-rise buildings. Energy Build., 39, 335-342, doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2006.08.001.
22. Fangers, P. O., 1970: Thermal Comfort: Analysis and Applications in Environmental Engineering. Danish Technical Press, 244 pp.
23. Fernando, H. J. S., S. M. Lee, J. Anderson, M. Princevac, E. R. Pardyjak, and S. Grossman-Clarke, 2001: Urban fluid mechanics: Air circulation and contaminant dispersion in cities. Environ. Fluid Mech., 1, 107-164, doi:10.1023/A:1011504001479.
24. Fernando, H. J. S., D. Zajic, S. Di Sabatino, R. Dimitrova, B. Hedquist, and A. Dallman, 2010: Flow, turbulence, and pollutant dispersion in urban atmospheres. Phys. Fluids, 22, 051301, doi:10.1063/1.3407662.
25. Fernando, H. J. S., R. Dimitrova, and S. Sentic, 2012: Climate change meets urban environment. National Security and Human Health Implications of Climate Change, H. J. S. Fernando, Z. B. Klaić, and J. L. McCulley, Eds., Springer, 115-134.
26. Frank, T., 2005: Climate change impacts on building heating and cooling energy demand in Switzerland. Energy Build., 37, 1175-1185, doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2005.06.019.
27. Franke, J., A. Hellsten, H. Schlünzen, and B. Carissimo, 2007: Best practice guideline for the CFD simulation of flows in the urban environment. COST Office Rep., 51 pp.
28. Früh, B., and Coauthors, 2011: Estimation of climate-change impacts on the urban heat load using an urban climate model and regional climate projections. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 167-184, doi:10.1175/2010JAMC2377.1.
29. Georgescu, M., P. E. Morefield, B. G. Bierwagen, and C. P. Weaver, 2014: Urban adaptation can roll back warming of emerging megapolitan regions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 2909-2914, doi:10.1073/pnas.1322280111.
30. Gowardhan, A. A., E. R. Pardyjak, I. Senocak, and M. J. Brown, 2011: A CFD-based wind solver for an urban fast response transport and dispersion model. Environ. Fluid Mech., 11, 439-464, doi:10.1007/s10652-011-9211-6.
31. Grimmond, C. S. B., T. S. King, M. Roth, and T. R. Oke, 1998: Aerodynamic roughness of urban areas derived from wind observations. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 89, 1-24, doi:10.1023/A:1001525622213.
32. Grimmond, C. S. B., and Coauthors, 2011: Initial results from phase 2 of the International Urban Energy Balance Model Comparison. Int. J. Climatol., 31, 244-272, doi:10.1002/joc.2227.
33. Guhathakurta, S., and P. Gober, 2010: Residential land use, the urban heat island, and water use in Phoenix: A path analysis. J. Plann. Educ. Res., 30, 40-50, doi:10.1177/0739456X10374187.
34. Gutiérrez, E., J. E. González, R. Bornstein, M. Arend, and A. Martilli, 2013: A new modeling approach to forecast building energy demands during extreme heat events in complex cities. J. Sol. Energy Eng., 135, 040906, doi:10.1115/1.4025510.
35. Hamdi, R., H. Van de Vyver, R. De Troch, and P. Termonia, 2013: Assessment of three dynamical urban climate downscaling methods: Brussels's future urban heat island under an A1B emission scenario. Int. J. Climatol., 34, 978-999, doi:10.1002/joc.3734.
36. Harlan, S. L., A. J. Brazel, L. Prashad, W. L. Stefanov, and L. Larsen, 2006: Neighborhood microclimates and vulnerability to heat stress. Soc. Sci. Med., 63, 2847-2863, doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2006.07.030.
37. Hayhoe, K., J. VanDorn, T. Croley II, N. Schlegal, and D. Wuebbles, 2010: Regional climate change projections for Chicago and the US Great Lakes. J. Great Lakes Res., 36 (Suppl.), 7-21, doi:10.1016/j.jglr.2010.03.012.
38. Hedquist, B. C., and A. J. Brazel, 2014: Seasonal variability of temperatures and outdoor human comfort in Phoenix, Arizona, U.S.A. Build. Environ., 72, 377-388, doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2013.11.018.
39. Janjić, Z. I., 1994: The step-mountain eta model: Further developments of the convection, viscous sublayer, and turbulence closure schemes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 927-945, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<0927:TSMECM>2.0.CO;2.
40. Jendritzky, G., 1990: Regional bio-climatological assessment procedure using mesoscale bioclimate maps as example (in German). Methodik zur räumlichen Bewertung der thermischen Komponente im Bioklima des Menschen: Fortgeschriebenes Klima-Michel-Modell, H. Schirmer et al., Eds., Akademie für Raumforschung und Landesplanung, 7-69.
41. Keeler, J. M., and D. A. R. Kristovich, 2012: Observations of urban heat island influence on lake-breeze frontal movement. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 51, 702-710, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-11-0166.1.
42. Kennedy, C., S. Pincetl, and P. Bunje, 2011: The study of urban metabolism and its applications to urban planning and design. Environ. Pollut., 159, 1965-1973, doi:10.1016/j.envpol.2010.10.022.
43. Kusaka, H., and F. Kimura, 2004: Coupling a single-layer urban canopy model with a simple atmospheric model: Impact of urban heat island simulation for an idealized case. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 82, 67-80, doi:10.2151/jmsj.82.67.
44. Kusaka, H., M. Hara, and Y. Takane, 2012: Urban climate projection by the WRF model at 3-km horizontal grid increment: Dynamical downscaling and predicting heat stress in the 2070's August for Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya metropolises. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 90B, 47-63, doi:10.2151/jmsj.2012-B04.
45. Laird, N. F., D. A. R. Kristovich, X. Liang, R. W. Arritt, and K. Labas, 2001: Lake Michigan lake breezes: Climatology, local forcing, and synoptic environment. J. Appl. Meteor., 40, 409-424, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(2001)040<0409:LMLBCL>2.0.CO;2.
46. Lemonsu, A., and V. Masson, 2002: Simulation of a summer urban breeze over Paris. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 104, 463-490, doi:10.1023/A:1016509614936.
47. Lemonsu, A., R. Kounkou-Arnaud, J. Desplat, J. Salagnac, and V. Masson, 2013: Evolution of the Parisian urban climate under a global changing climate. Climatic Change, 116, 679-692, doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0521-6.
48. Leung, L. R., Y. Kuo, and J. Tribbia, 2006: Research needs and directions of regional climate modeling using WRF and CCSM. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 1747-1751, doi:10.1175/BAMS-87-12-1747.
49. Li, D., and E. Bou-Zeid, 2013: Synergistic interaction between urban heat islands and heat waves: The impact in cities is larger than the sum of its parts. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 52, 2051-2064, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-13-02.1.
50. Li, K., and Coauthors, 2007: Development of a framework for quantifying the environmental impacts of urban development and construction practices. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett., 41, 5130-5136, doi:10.1021/es062481d.
51. Lin, C.-Y., F. Chen, J. C. Huang, W.-C. Chen, Y.-A. Liou, W.-N. Chen, and S.-C. Liu, 2008: Urban heat island effectand its impact on boundary layer development and land-sea circulation over northern Taiwan. Atmos. Environ., 42, 5635-5649, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.03.015.
52. Lindberg, F., B. Holmer, and S. Thorsson, 2008: SOLWEIG 1.0-Modelling spatial variations of 3D radiant fluxes and mean radiant temperature in complex urban settings. Int. J. Biometeor., 52, 697-713, doi:10.1007/s00484-008-0162-7.
53. Liu, Y., and D. J. Harris, 2007: Full-scale measurements of convective coefficient on external surface of a low-rise building in sheltered conditions. Build. Environ., 42, 2718-2736, doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2006.07.013.
54. Ma, J., X. Li, and Y. Zhu, 2012: A simplified method to predict the outdoor thermal environment in residential district. Build. Simul., 5, 157-167, doi:10.1007/s12273-012-0079-2.
55. Maggiotto, G., R. Buccolieri, M. A. Santo, L. S. Leo, and S. Di Sabatino, 2014: Validation of temperature-perturbation and CFD-based modelling for the prediction of the thermal environment: The Lecce (IT) case study. Environ. Modell. Software, 60, 69-83, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.06.001.
56. Manfred, K., and T. Schmidt, 2008: Radiation effects on exterior surfaces. Proc. Eighth Symp. on Building Physics in Nordic Countries, Vol. 2, Copenhagen, Denmark, Technical University of Denmark, 207-212.
57. Martilli, A., A. Clappier, and M. W. Rotach, 2002: An urban surface exchange parameterisation for mesoscale models. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 104, 261-304, doi:10.1023/A:1016099921195.
58. Masson, V., 2000: A physically-based scheme for the urban energy budget in atmospheric models. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 94, 357-397, doi:10.1023/A:1002463829265.
59. Matzarakis, A., F. Rutz, and H. Mayer, 2007: Modelling radiation fluxes in simple and complex environments-Application of the RayMan model. Int. J. Biometeor., 51, 323-334, doi:10.1007/s00484-006-0061-8.
60. Mayer, H., and P. Höppe, 1987: Thermal comfort of man in different urban environments. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 38, 43-49, doi:10.1007/BF00866252.
61. Mian, O. S., J. M. Thom, L. P. Ardigò, M. V. Narici, and A. E. Minetti, 2006: Metabolic cost, mechanical work, and efficiency during walking in young and older men. Acta Physiol., 186, 127-139, doi:10.1111/j.1748-1716.2006.01522.x.
62. Müller, N., W. Kuttler, and A. Barlag, 2014: Counteracting urban climate change: Adaptation measures and their effect on thermal comfort. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 115, 243-257, doi:10.1007/s00704-013-0890-4.
63. Niyogi, D., P. Pyle, M. Lei, S. P. Arya, C. M. Kishtawal, M. Shepherd, F. Chen, and B. Wolfe, 2011: Urban modification of thunderstorms: An observational storm climatology and model case study for the Indianapolis urban region. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 1129-1144, doi:10.1175/2010JAMC1836.1.
64. Ohashi, Y., Y. Kikegawa, T. Ihara, and N. Sugiyam, 2014: Numerical simulations of outdoor heat stress index and heat disorder risk in the 23 wards of Tokyo. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 53, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0127.1.
65. Oke, T. R., 1978: Inadvertent climate modification. Boundary Layer Climates, T. R. Oke, Ed., Methuen and Co., 229-267.
66. Ohashi, Y., 2006: Towards better scientific communication in urban climate. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 84, 179-190, doi:10.1007/s00704-005-0153-0.
67. Oleson, K. W., A. Monaghan, O. Wilhelmi, M. Barlage, N. Brunsell, J. Feddema, L. Hu, and D. F. Steinhoff, 2010: Interactions between urbanization, heat stress, and climate change. Climatic Change, 129, 525-541, doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0936-8.
68. Park, S. Y., H. J. S. Fernando, and S. C. Yoon, 2014: Simulation of flow and turbulence in the Phoenix area using a modified urbanized model. Meteor. Appl., 21, 948-962, doi:10.1002/met.1442.
69. Rosenzweig, C., W. D. Solecki, L. Parshall, M. Chopping, G. Pope, and R. Goldberg, 2005: Characterizing the urban heat island in current and future climates in New Jersey. Environ. Hazards, 6, 51-62, doi:10.1016/j.hazards.2004.12.001.
70. Salamanca, F., A. Krpo, A. Martilli, and A. Clappier, 2010: A new building energy model coupled with urban canopy parameterization for urban climate simulations-Part I. Formulation, verification, and sensitivity analysis of the model. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 99, 331-344, doi:10.1007/s00704-009-0142-9.
71. Salamanca, F., A. Martilli, M. Tewari, and F. Chen, 2011: A study of the urban boundary layer using different urban parameterizations and high-resolution urban canopy parameters with WRF. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 1107-1128, doi:10.1175/2010JAMC2538.1.
72. Salamanca, F., A. Martilli, and C. Yagüe, 2012: A numerical study of the urban heat island over Madrid during the DESIREX (2008) campaign with WRF and an evaluation of simple mitigation strategies. Int. J. Climatol., 32, 2372-2386, doi:10.1002/joc.3398.
73. Sharma, A., H. J. S. Fernando, J. Hellmann, and F. Chen, 2014: Sensitivity of WRF model to urban parameterizations, with applications to Chicago metropolitan urban heat island. Proc. Fourth Joint US-European Fluids Engineering Division Summer Meeting, Chicago, IL, American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 10 pp., doi:10.1115/FEDSM2014-21292.
74. Smith, B. B., 2001: Development of a lake breeze forecast methodology for northern Michigan. Natl. Wea. Bull., 25 (3, 4), 47-52.
75. Smith, K. R., and P. J. Roebber, 2011: Green roof mitigation potential for a proxy future climate scenario in Chicago, Illinois. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 507-522, doi:10.1175/2010JAMC2337.1.
76. Solomon, S., and Coauthors, Eds., 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, 1007 pp.
77. Stocker, T. F., and Coauthors, Eds., 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, 950 pp.
78. Stone, B., J. Vargo, and D. Habeeb, 2012: Managing climate change in cities: Will climate action plans work? Landscape Urban Plann., 107, 263-271, doi:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2012.05.014.
79. Taha, H., 1999: Modifying a mesoscale meteorological model to better incorporate urban heat storage: A bulk-parameterization approach. J. Appl. Meteor., 38, 466-473, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1999)038<0466:MAMMMT>2.0.CO;2.
80. Tewari, M., H. Kusaka, F. Chen, W. J. Coirier, S. Kim, A. A. Wyszogrodzki, and T. T. Warner, 2010: Impact of coupling a microscale computational fluid dynamics model with a mesoscale model on urban contaminant transport and dispersion. Atmos. Res., 96, 656-664, doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.01.006.
81. Thorsson, S., M. Lindqvist, and S. Lindqvist, 2004: Thermal bioclimatic conditions and patterns of behavior in an urban park in Göteborg, Sweden. Int. J. Biometeor., 48, 149-156, doi:10.1007/s00484-003-0189-8.
82. Thorsson, S., F. Lindberg, J. Björklund, B. Holmer, and D. Rayner, 2011: Potential changes in outdoor thermal comfort conditions in Gothenburg, Sweden due to climate change: The influence of urban geometry. Int. J. Climatol., 31, 324-335, doi:10.1002/joc.2231.
83. Vos, P. E. J., B. Maiheu, J. Vankerkom, and S. Janssen, 2013: Improving local air quality in cities: To tree or not to tree?Environ. Pollut., 183, 113-122, doi:10.1016/j.envpol.2012.10.021.
84. Wang, Y., L. R. Leung, J. L. McGregor, D. Lee, W. Wang, Y. Ding, and F. Kimura, 2004: Regional climate modeling: Progress, challenges, and prospects. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 82, 1599-1628, doi:10.2151/jmsj.82.1599.
85. Wilby, R. L., 2003: Past and projected trends in London's urban heat island. Weather, 58, 251-260, doi:10.1256/wea.183.02.
86. Wilks, D. S., 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. 2nd ed. Academic Press, 464 pp.
87. Willmott, C. J., 1982: Some comments on the evaluation of model performance. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 63, 1309-1313, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1982)063<1309:SCOTEO>2.0.CO;2.
88. Willmott, C. J., S. M. Robeson, and K. Matsuura, 2012: A refined index of model performance. Int. J. Climatol., 32, 2088-2094, doi:10.1002/joc.2419.
89. Zajic, D., H. J. S. Fernando, M. J. Brown, and E. R. Pardyjak, 2014: On flows in simulated urban canopies. Environ. Fluid Mech., 15, 275-303, doi:10.1007/s10652-013-9311-6.