Investigating the recent apparent hiatus in surface temperature increases: 1. Construction of two 30-member earth system model ensembles

Journal of Geophysical Research

Volumn 120, Issue 17, 2015, Pages 8575-8596

  Outten, Stephen ^a   Thorne, Peter ^a,b   Bethke, Ingo ^a   Seland, Øyvind ^c  

^a BJERKNES CENTRE FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH   (Norway)

^b NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF IRELAND   (Ireland)

^c NORWEGIAN METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE   (Norway)

Author keywords

Some forcings had large changes but with little net change (max of 0.1 W m 2); Two 30 member ensembles were created to cover period of the hiatus; Two sets of alternative forcings have been applied in NorESM over the hiatus

Indexed keywords

AEROSOL; ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCE; DATA SET; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; EUROPEAN UNION; GLOBAL WARMING; GREENHOUSE GAS; HIATUS; PANEL DATA; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; SOLAR RADIATION; SURFACE TEMPERATURE; TRACE GAS;

NORWAY;

EID: 84943405610     PISSN: 01480227     EISSN: 21562202     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/2015JD023859     Document Type: Article

References (66)

1. Allan, R. P., C. Lui, N. G. Loeb, M. D. Palmer, M. Roberts, D. Smith, and P. L. Vidale (2014), Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985-2012, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5588-5597, doi:10.1002/2014GL060962.
2. Bentsen, M., et al. (2013), The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M-Part 1: Description and basic evaluation, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 5, 2843-2931, doi:10.5194/gmdd-5-2843-2012.
3. Boucher, O., et al. (2013), Clouds and aerosols, in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by T. F. Stocker et al., pp. 571-658, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K., and New York, doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.016.
4. Brown, P. T., W. Li, L. Li, and Y. Ming (2014), Top-of-atmosphere radiative contribution to unforced decadal global temperature variability in climate models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5175-5183, doi:10.1002/2014GL060625.
5. Chen, X., and K. K. Tung (2014), Varying planetary heat sinks led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration, Science, 345, 897-903.
6. Cohen, J. L., J. C. Furtado, M. Barlow, V. A. Alexeev, and J. E. Cherry (2012), Asymmetric seasonal temperature trends, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L04705, doi:10.1029/2011GL050582.
7. Collins, M., et al. (2013), Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility, in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by T. F. Stocker et al., pp. 1029-1136, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K., and New York, doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.024.
8. Cowtan, K., and R. Way (2014), Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends, Q. J. R. Met. Soc., 140, 1935-1944, doi:10.1002/qj.2297.
9. Dessler, A. E., M. R. Schoeberl, T. Wang, S. M. Davis, and K. H. Rosenlof (2013), Stratospheric water vapor feedback, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 110, 18,087-18,091.
10. England, M. H., S. McGregor, P. Spence, G. A. Meehl, A. Timmermann, W. Cai, A. S. Gupta, M. J. McPhaden, A. Purich, and A. Santoso (2014), Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 222-227.
11. Estrada, F., P. Perron, and B. Martínez-López (2013), Statistically derived contributions of diverse human influences to twentieth-century temperature changes, Nat. Geosci., 6, 1050-1055, doi:10.1038/ngeo1999.
12. Fetterer, F., K. Knowles, W. Meier, and M. Savoie (2002), updated daily. Sea Ice Index. 1980 to 2012, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, Colo., doi:10.7265/n5qj7f7w.
13. Flato, G., et al. (2013), Evaluation of Climate Models, in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by T. F. Stocker et al., pp. 741-866, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K., and New York, doi:10.1017/CB09781107415324.020.
14. Fröhlich, C. (2006), Solar irradiance variability since 1978: Revision of the {PMOD} composite during solar cycle 21, Space Sci. Rev., 125, 53-65, doi:10.1007/s11214-006-9046-5.
15. Fröhlich, C., and J. Lean (1998), Cycles and trends in the past two decades and associated climate change uncertainties, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 4377-4380, doi:10.1029/1998GL900157.
16. Fyfe, J., N. P. Gillett, and F. W. Zwiers (2013), Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 767-769.
17. Gent, P. R., et al. (2011), The Community Climate System Model version 4, J. Clim., 24, 4973-4991, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4083.1.
18. Gregory, J. M. (2010), Long-term effect of volcanic forcing on ocean heat content, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L22701, doi:10.1029/2010GL045507.
19. Hansen, J., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, and V. Oinas (2000), Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 97, 9875-9880.
20. Hansen, J., et al. (2005), Efficacy of climate forcings, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D18104, doi:10.1029/2005JD005776.
21. Hartmann, D. L., et al. (2013), Observations: Atmosphere and surface, in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by T. F. Stocker et al., pp. 159-254, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K., and New York, doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.008.
22. Hawkins, E., and R. Sutton (2009), The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 1095-1107, doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1.
23. Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane (2009), Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.
24. Hubber, M., and R. Knutti (2014), Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate response in the recent hiatus reconciled, Nat. Geosci, 7, 651-656.
25. Iversen, T., et al. (2013), The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M-Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 389-415.
26. Karl, T., A. Arguez, B. Huang, J. Lawimore, J. McMahon, M. Menne, T. Peterson, R. Vose, and H. Zhang (2015), Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus, Science, doi:10.1126/science.aaa5632.
27. Kaufmann, R., H. Kauppi, M. Mann, and J. Stock (2011), Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998-2008, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 108, 11,790-11,793.
28. Kirkevåg, A., et al. (2013), Aerosol-climate interactions in the Norwegian Earth System Model-NorESM1-M, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 207-244.
29. Kirtman, B., et al. (2013), Near-term climate change: Projections and predictability, in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by T. F. Stocker et al., pp. 953-1028, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K., and New York, doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.023.
30. Klimont, Z., S. J. Smith, and J. Cofala (2013a), The last decade of global anthropogenic sulfur dioxide: 2000-2011 emissions, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 014003, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014003.
31. Klimont, Z., et al. (2013b), ECLIPSE V4a: Global emission data set developed with the GAINS model for the period 2005 to 2050 Key features and principal data sources, IIASA -Eclipse Technical note. [Available at http://eccad.sedoo.fr/eccad_extract_interface/doc/ pdf/ECLIPSE-V4a_info.pdf.]
32. Kosaka, Y., and S. Xie (2013), Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling, Nature, 501, 403-407, doi:10.1038/ nature12534.
33. Krivova, N. A., L. E. A. Vieira, and S. K. Solanki (2010), Reconstruction of solar spectral irradiance since the Maunder minimum, J. Geophys. Res., 115, A12112, doi:10.1029/2010JA015431.
34. Lean, J. (2000), Evolution of the Sun’s spectral irradiance since the Maunder minimum, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 2425-2428, doi:10.1029/ 2000GL000043.
35. Lean, J. L., and D. H. Rind (2009), How will Earth’s surface temperature change in future decades?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15708, doi:10.1029/ 2009GL038932.
36. Marotzke, J., and P. M. Forster (2015), Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends, Nature, 517, 565-570, doi:10.1038/nature14117.
37. Meehl, G. A., J. Arblaster, J. Fasullo, A. Hu, and K. Trenberth (2011), Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surfacetemperature hiatus periods, Nat. Clim. Change, 1, 360364.
38. Meehl, G. A., A. Hu, J. N. Arblaster, J. Fasullo, and K. Trenberth (2013), Externally forced and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, J. Clim., 26, 7298-7310, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-1200548.1.
39. Meehl, G. A., H. Teng, and J. M. Arblaster (2014), Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 898-902.
40. Mori, M., M. Watanabe, H. Shiogama, J. Inoue, and M. Kimoto (2014), Robust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades, Nat. Geosci., 7, 869-873.
41. Morice, C. P., J. J. Kennedy, N. A. Rayner, and P. D. Jones (2012), Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D08101, doi:10.1029/2011JD017187.
42. Murphy, D. M. (2013), Little net clear-sky radiative forcing from recent regional redistribution of aerosols, Nat. Geosci., 6, 258-262.
43. Myhre, G., et al. (2013), Anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing, in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by T. F. Stocker et al., pp. 659-740, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K., and New York, doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.018.
44. Neely, R. R., et al. (2013), Recent anthropogenic increases in SO2 from Asia have minimal impact on stratospheric aerosol, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 999-1004, doi:10.1002/grl.50263.
45. Outten, S., and I. Esau (2012), A link between Arctic sea ice and recent cooling trends over Eurasia, Clim. Change, 110, 1069-1075.
46. Petoukhov, V., and V. Semenov (2010), A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D21111, doi:10.1029/2009JD013568.
47. Planton, S. (Ed.) (2013), IPCC, 2013: Annex III: Glossary, in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by T. F. Stocker et al., pp. 1447-1466, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K., and New York, doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.031.
48. Prinn, R. G., et al. (2000), A history of chemically and radiatively important gases in air deduced from ALE/GAGE/AGAGE, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 17,751-17,792, doi:10.1029/2000JD900141.
49. Rhein, M., et al. (2013), Observations: Ocean, in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by T. F. Stocker et al., pp. 255-316, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K., and New York, doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.010.
50. Ridley, D. A., et al. (2014), Total volcanic stratospheric aerosol optical depths and implications for global climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 7763-7769, doi:10.1002/2014GL061541.
51. Risbey, J. S., S. Lawandowsky, C. Langlais, D. P. Monselesan, T. J. O’Kane, and N. Oreskes (2014), Well-established global surface warming in climate model projections selected for ENSO phase, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 835-840.
52. Santer, B. D., et al. (2014), Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature, Nat. Geosci., 7, 185-189.
53. Sato, M., J. E. Hansen, M. P. McCormick, and J. B. Pollack (1993), Stratospheric aerosol optical depth, 1850-1990, J. Geophys. Res., 98, 22,987-22,994, doi:10.1029/93JD02553.
54. Schmidt, G. A., D. T. Shindell, and K. Tsigaridis (2014), Reconciling warming trends, Nat. Geosci., 7, 158-160.
55. Sexton, D. M. H., H. Grubb, K. P. Shine, and C. K. Follard (2003), Design and analysis of climate model experiments for the efficient estimation of anthropogenic signals, J. Clim., 16, 1320-1336.
56. Shindel, D. T. (2014), Inhomogeneous forcing and transient climate sensitivity, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 274-277, doi:10.1038/nclimate2136.
57. Solomon, S., K. H. Rosenlof, R. W. Portmann, J. S. Daniel, S. M. Davis, T. J. Sanford, and G. Plattner (2010), Contributions of stratospheric water vapor to decadal changes in the rate of global warming, Science, 327, 1219-1223.
58. Solomon, S., J. S. Daniel, R. R. Neely III, J.-P. Vernier, E. G. Dutton, and L. W. Thomason (2011), The persistently variable “Background” stratospheric aerosol layer and global climate change, Science, 333, 866-870.
59. Stevens, B. (2015), Rethinking the lower bound on aerosol radiative forcing, J. Clim., 28, 4794-4819, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00656.1.
60. Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl (2012), An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485-498, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.
61. Thorne, P., S. Outten, I. Bethke, and Ø. Seland (2015), Investigating the recent apparent hiatus in surface temperature increase: 2. Comparison of model ensembles to observational estimates, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, doi:10.1002/2014JD022805.
62. Tsutsumi, Y., K. Mori, T. Hirahara, M. Ikegami, and T. J. Conway (2009), Technical report of global analysis method for major greenhouse gases by the World Data Center for greenhouse gases, GAW Rep., 184.
63. UNEP Ozone Secretariat (1987), The Montreal protocol on substances that deplete the ozone layer. [Available at http://ozone.unep.org/Publications/mp_final_act/Montreal_Protocol_Final_Act_1987-E.pdf.] (last accessed October 2014).
64. Urban, J., S. Lossow, G. Stiller, and W. Read (2014), Another drop in water vapor, Eos Trans. AGU, 95, 245-246, doi:10.1002/2014EO270001.
65. Wang, Y. M., J. Lean, and N. R. Sheeley (2005), Modeling the Sun’s magnetic field and irradiance since 1713, Astrophys. J., 625, 522-538.
66. Watanabe, M., H. Shiogama, H. Tatebe, M. Hayashi, M. Ishii, and M. Kimoto (2014), Contribution of natural decadal variability to global warming acceleration and hiatus, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 893-897.