메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 28, Issue 16, 2015, Pages 6443-6456

Quantifying the role of internal climate variability in future climate trends

Author keywords

Climate change; Trends

Indexed keywords

ANALYTICAL MODELS; CLIMATE MODELS; CLIMATOLOGY; ERROR STATISTICS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EID: 84942904818     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00830.1     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (155)

References (37)
  • 1
    • 0842334547 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present)
    • Adler, R. F., and Coauthors, 2003: The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present). J. Hydrometeor., 4, 1147-1167, doi:10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:TVGPCP>2.0.CO;2.
    • (2003) J. Hydrometeor. , vol.4 , pp. 1147-1167
    • Adler, R.F.1
  • 2
    • 84928646292 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Detection and attribution of climate change: From global to regional
    • T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press
    • Bindoff, N. L., and Coauthors, 2014: Detection and attribution of climate change: From global to regional. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 867-952. [Available online at http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter10_FINAL.pdf.]
    • (2014) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis , pp. 867-952
    • Bindoff, N.L.1
  • 4
    • 35348998346 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Regional climate projections
    • S. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press
    • Christensen, J. H., and Coauthors, 2007: Regional climate projections. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, S. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 847-940. [Available online at https://www.ipcc-wg1.unibe.ch/publications/wg1-ar4/ar4-wg1-chapter11.pdf.]
    • (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis , pp. 847-940
    • Christensen, J.H.1
  • 5
    • 84928600768 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility
    • T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press
    • Collins, M., and Coauthors, 2013: Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 1029-1136. [Available online at https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter12_FINAL.pdf.]
    • (2013) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis , pp. 1029-1136
    • Collins, M.1
  • 6
    • 84865969055 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate
    • Deser, C., R. Knutti, S. Solomon, and A. S. Phillips, 2012a: Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate. Nat. Climate Change, 2, 775-779, doi:10.1038/nclimate1562.
    • (2012) Nat. Climate Change , vol.2 , pp. 775-779
    • Deser, C.1    Knutti, R.2    Solomon, S.3    Phillips, A.S.4
  • 7
    • 84856237422 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertainty in climate change projections: The role of internal variability
    • Deser, C., A. Phillips, V. Bourdette, and H. Teng, 2012b: Uncertainty in climate change projections: The role of internal variability. Climate Dyn., 38, 527-547, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x.
    • (2012) Climate Dyn. , vol.38 , pp. 527-547
    • Deser, C.1    Phillips, A.2    Bourdette, V.3    Teng, H.4
  • 8
    • 84894636591 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Projecting North American climate over the next 50 years: Uncertainty due to internal variability
    • Deser, C., A. Phillips, M. A. Alexander, and B. V. Smoliak, 2014: Projecting North American climate over the next 50 years: Uncertainty due to internal variability. J. Climate, 27, 2271-2296, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00451.1.
    • (2014) J. Climate , vol.27 , pp. 2271-2296
    • Deser, C.1    Phillips, A.2    Alexander, M.A.3    Smoliak, B.V.4
  • 9
    • 79960953613 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Observational and model evidence of global emergence of permanent, unprecedented heat in the 20th and 21st centuries
    • Diffenbaugh, N. S., and M. Scherer, 2011: Observational and model evidence of global emergence of permanent, unprecedented heat in the 20th and 21st centuries. Climatic Change, 107, 615-624, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0112-y.
    • (2011) Climatic Change , vol.107 , pp. 615-624
    • Diffenbaugh, N.S.1    Scherer, M.2
  • 10
    • 0034670346 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The timescale, power spectra, and climate noise properties of teleconnection patterns
    • Feldstein, S. B., 2000: The timescale, power spectra, and climate noise properties of teleconnection patterns. J. Climate, 13, 4430-4440, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<4430:TTPSAC>2.0.CO;2.
    • (2000) J. Climate , vol.13 , pp. 4430-4440
    • Feldstein, S.B.1
  • 11
    • 70350567345 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Future changes in daily summer temperature variability: Driving processes and role for temperature extremes
    • Fischer, E., and C. Schär, 2009: Future changes in daily summer temperature variability: Driving processes and role for temperature extremes. Climate Dyn., 33, 917-935, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0473-8.
    • (2009) Climate Dyn. , vol.33 , pp. 917-935
    • Fischer, E.1    Schär, C.2
  • 13
    • 0032052424 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Wave-driven zonal flow vacillation in the Southern Hemisphere
    • Hartmann, D. L., and F. Lo, 1998: Wave-driven zonal flow vacillation in the Southern Hemisphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 1303-1315, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1998)055<1303:WDZFVI>2.0.CO;2.
    • (1998) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.55 , pp. 1303-1315
    • Hartmann, D.L.1    Lo, F.2
  • 14
    • 70450173156 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions
    • Hawkins, E., and R. Sutton, 2009: The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 1095-1107, doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1.
    • (2009) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.90 , pp. 1095-1107
    • Hawkins, E.1    Sutton, R.2
  • 15
    • 79959592834 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change
    • Hawkins, E., and R. Sutton, 2011: The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change. Climate Dyn., 37, 407-418, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6.
    • (2011) Climate Dyn. , vol.37 , pp. 407-418
    • Hawkins, E.1    Sutton, R.2
  • 16
    • 84855590698 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Time of emergence of climate signals
    • Hawkins, E., and R. Sutton, 2012: Time of emergence of climate signals. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L01702, doi:10.1029/2011GL050087.
    • (2012) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.39
    • Hawkins, E.1    Sutton, R.2
  • 17
    • 33750617761 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming
    • Held, I. M., and B. J. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate, 19, 5686-5699, doi:10.1175/JCLI3990.1.
    • (2006) J. Climate , vol.19 , pp. 5686-5699
    • Held, I.M.1    Soden, B.J.2
  • 18
    • 84905265059 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Summary for policymakers
    • C. B. Field et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press
    • IPCC, 2014: Summary for policymakers. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, C. B. Field et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 1-32. [Available online at http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/ar5_wgII_spm_ en.pdf.]
    • (2014) Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability , pp. 1-32
  • 19
    • 79960101467 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea surface temperature observations measured in situ since 1850: 2. Biases and homogenization
    • Kennedy, J. J., N. A. Rayner, R. O. Smith, D. E. Parker, and M. Saunby, 2011: Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea surface temperature observations measured in situ since 1850: 2. Biases and homogenization. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D14104, doi:10.1029/2010JD015220.
    • (2011) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.116
    • Kennedy, J.J.1    Rayner, N.A.2    Smith, R.O.3    Parker, D.E.4    Saunby, M.5
  • 20
    • 84928617872 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Near-term climate change: Projections and predictability
    • T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press
    • Kirtman, B., and Coauthors, 2014: Near-term climate change: Projections and predictability. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 953-1028. [Available online at https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter11_FINAL.pdf.]
    • (2014) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis , pp. 953-1028
    • Kirtman, B.1
  • 21
    • 84885221470 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multimodel assessment of regional surface temperature trends: CMIP3 and CMIP5 twentieth-century simulations
    • Knutson, T. R., F. Zeng, and A. T. Wittenberg, 2013: Multimodel assessment of regional surface temperature trends: CMIP3 and CMIP5 twentieth-century simulations. J. Climate, 26, 8709-8743, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00567.1.
    • (2013) J. Climate , vol.26 , pp. 8709-8743
    • Knutson, T.R.1    Zeng, F.2    Wittenberg, A.T.3
  • 22
    • 84912096619 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ocean surface temperature variability: Large model-data differences at decadal and longer periods
    • Laepple, T., and P. H. Huybers, 2014: Ocean surface temperature variability: Large model-data differences at decadal and longer periods. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 16 682-16 687, doi:10.1073/pnas.1412077111.
    • (2014) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA , vol.111 , pp. 16 682-16 687
    • Laepple, T.1    Huybers, P.H.2
  • 23
    • 0001138910 scopus 로고
    • The standard error of time-average estimates of climatic means
    • Leith, C. E., 1973: The standard error of time-average estimates of climatic means. J. Appl. Meteor., 12, 1066-1069, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1973)012<1066:TSEOTA>2.0.CO;2.
    • (1973) J. Appl. Meteor. , vol.12 , pp. 1066-1069
    • Leith, C.E.1
  • 24
    • 0017006619 scopus 로고
    • Detection of trends in water quality data from records with dependent observations
    • Lettenmaier, D. P., 1976: Detection of trends in water quality data from records with dependent observations. Water Resour. Res., 12, 1037-1046, doi:10.1029/WR012i005p01037.
    • (1976) Water Resour. Res. , vol.12 , pp. 1037-1046
    • Lettenmaier, D.P.1
  • 25
    • 80053558242 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries
    • Mahlstein, I., R. Knutti, S. Solomon, and R. W. Portmann, 2011: Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries. Environ. Res. Lett., 6, 034009, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034009.
    • (2011) Environ. Res. Lett. , vol.6 , pp. 034009
    • Mahlstein, I.1    Knutti, R.2    Solomon, S.3    Portmann, R.W.4
  • 27
    • 0347765858 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • ENSO-forced variability of the Pacific decadal oscillation
    • Newman, M., G. P. Compo, and M. A. Alexander, 2003: ENSO-forced variability of the Pacific decadal oscillation. J. Climate, 16, 3853-3857, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3853:EVOTPD>2.0.CO;2.
    • (2003) J. Climate , vol.16 , pp. 3853-3857
    • Newman, M.1    Compo, G.P.2    Alexander, M.A.3
  • 28
    • 84893266944 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The CRUTEM4 land-surface air temperature data set: Construction, previous versions and dissemination via Google Earth
    • Osborn, T. J., and P. D. Jones, 2014: The CRUTEM4 land-surface air temperature data set: Construction, previous versions and dissemination via Google Earth. Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 61-68, doi:10.5194/essd-6-61-2014.
    • (2014) Earth Syst. Sci. Data , vol.6 , pp. 61-68
    • Osborn, T.J.1    Jones, P.D.2
  • 29
    • 0033792096 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical significance of trends and trend differences in layer-average atmospheric temperature time series
    • Santer, B. D., T. M. L. Wigley, J. S. Boyle, D. J. Gaffen, J. J. Hnilo, D. Nychka, D. E. Parker, and K. E. Taylor, 2000: Statistical significance of trends and trend differences in layer-average atmospheric temperature time series. J. Geophys. Res., 105, 7337-7356, doi:10.1029/1999JD901105.
    • (2000) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.105 , pp. 7337-7356
    • Santer, B.D.1    Wigley, T.M.L.2    Boyle, J.S.3    Gaffen, D.J.4    Hnilo, J.J.5    Nychka, D.6    Parker, D.E.7    Taylor, K.E.8
  • 30
    • 84961288165 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Physics of changes in synoptic midlatitude temperature variability
    • Schneider, T., T. Bischoff, and H. Plotka, 2015: Physics of changes in synoptic midlatitude temperature variability. J. Climate, 28, 2312-2331, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00632.1.
    • (2015) J. Climate , vol.28 , pp. 2312-2331
    • Schneider, T.1    Bischoff, T.2    Plotka, H.3
  • 31
    • 84903489236 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Arctic amplification decreases temperature variance in northern mid- to high-latitudes
    • Screen, J. A., 2014: Arctic amplification decreases temperature variance in northern mid- to high-latitudes. Nat. Climate Change, 4, 577-582, doi:10.1038/nclimate2268.
    • (2014) Nat. Climate Change , vol.4 , pp. 577-582
    • Screen, J.A.1
  • 33
    • 0029503106 scopus 로고
    • Dynamic contribution to hemispheric mean temperature trends
    • Wallace, J. M., Y. Zhang, and J. A. Renwick, 1995: Dynamic contribution to hemispheric mean temperature trends. Science, 270, 780-783, doi:10.1126/science.270.5237.780.
    • (1995) Science , vol.270 , pp. 780-783
    • Wallace, J.M.1    Zhang, Y.2    Renwick, J.A.3
  • 34
    • 84865966104 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Simulated versus observed patterns of warming over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere continents during the cold season
    • Wallace, J. M., Q. Fu, B. V. Smoliak, P. Lin, and C. M. Johanson, 2012: Simulated versus observed patterns of warming over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere continents during the cold season. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 14 337-14 342, doi:10.1073/pnas.1204875109.
    • (2012) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA , vol.109 , pp. 14 337-14 342
    • Wallace, J.M.1    Fu, Q.2    Smoliak, B.V.3    Lin, P.4    Johanson, C.M.5
  • 35
    • 84896076375 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Attribution of climate change in the presence of internal variability
    • C. P. Chang et al., Eds., World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate, World Scientific, in press
    • Wallace, J. M., C. Deser, B.V. Smoliak, and A. S. Phillips, 2015: Attribution of climate change in the presence of internal variability. Climate Change: Multidecadal and Beyond, C. P. Chang et al., Eds., World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate, Vol. 6, World Scientific, in press.
    • (2015) Climate Change: Multidecadal and Beyond , vol.6
    • Wallace, J.M.1    Deser, C.2    Smoliak, B.V.3    Phillips, A.S.4
  • 37
    • 23644435616 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Madden-Julian oscillation
    • Zhang, C., 2005: Madden-Julian oscillation. Rev. Geophys., 43, RG2003, doi:10.1029/2004RG000158.
    • (2005) Rev. Geophys. , vol.43
    • Zhang, C.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.