The perceived risks of local climate change in Queenstown, New Zealand

Current Issues in Tourism

Volumn 18, Issue 10, 2015, Pages 947-965

  Hopkins, Debbie ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OTAGO   (New Zealand)

Author keywords

local climate change; New Zealand; optimistic bias; risk perception; ski industry

Indexed keywords

ANNUAL VARIATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; COGNITION; EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS; ERROR ANALYSIS; PERCEPTION; QUESTIONNAIRE SURVEY; RECREATIONAL ACTIVITY; RISK ASSESSMENT; STAKEHOLDER; VULNERABILITY;

NEW ZEALAND; OTAGO; QUEENSTOWN [OTAGO]; SOUTH ISLAND;

EID: 84940189376     PISSN: 13683500     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/13683500.2013.776022     Document Type: Article

References (104)

1. B.Abegg, U.Konig, R.Burki, & H.Elsasser, (1997). Climate impact assessment and tourism. Erde, 128(2), 105–116.
2. L.R.Allen, P.T.Long, R.R.Perdue, & S.Kieselbach, (1988). The impact of tourism development on residents’ perceptions of community life. Journal of Travel Research, 27(1), 16–21. doi: 10.1177/004728758802700104
3. R.H.Bark, B.G.Colby, & F.Dominguez, (2010). Snow days? Snowmaking adaptation and the future of low latitude, high elevation skiing in Arizona, USA. Climatic Change, 102(3–4), 467–491. doi: 10.1007/s10584-009-9708-x
4. P.Bazeley, & L.Richards, (2000). The Nvivo qualitative project book. London: Sage Publications.
5. J.Behringer, R.Buerki, & J.Fuhrer, (2000). Participatory integrated assessment of adaptation to climate change in Alpine tourism and mountain agriculture. Integrated Assessment, 1(4), 331–338. doi: 10.1023/A:1018940901744
6. K.Bickerstaff, (2004). Risk perception research: Socio-cultural perspectives on the public experience of air pollution. Environment International, 30(6), 827–840. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2003.12.001
7. Bickerstaff, K., Simmons, P., & Pidgeon, N. (2006). Public perceptions of risk, science and governance: Main findings of a qualitative study of six risk cases (Technical Report 06). Norwich: Centre for Environmental Risk.
8. K.Bickerstaff, & G.Walker, (1999). Clearing the smog? Public responses to air-quality information. Local Environment, 4(3), 279–294. doi: 10.1080/13549839908725600
9. K.Bickerstaff, & G.Walker, (2003). The place (s) of matter: Matter out of place–public understandings of air pollution. Progress in Human Geography, 27(1), 45–67. doi: 10.1191/0309132503ph412oa
10. Bicknell, S., & McManus, P. (2006). The canary in the coalmine: Australian ski resorts and their response to climate change. Geographical Research, 44(4), 386–400.
11. P.Biernacki, & D.Waldorf, (1981). Snowball sampling: Problems and techniques of chain referral sampling. Sociological Methods & Research, 10(2), 141–163.
12. K.Blumberg, (2008). Internationalisation in adventure tourism: The mobility of people, products and innovations. In T.Cole & C.M.Hall (Eds.), International business and tourism: Global issues, contemporary interactions (pp. 167–180). Abingdon: Routledge.
13. R.J.Bord, A.Fisher, & R.E.O'Connor, (1998). Public perceptions of global warming: United States and international perspectives. Climate Research, 11, 75–84. doi: 10.3354/cr011075
14. V.Braun, & V.Clarke, (2006). Using thematic analysis in psychology. Qualitative Research in Psychology, 3(2), 77–101. doi: 10.1191/1478088706qp063oa
15. Bray, D., & Shackley, S. (2004). The social simulation of the public perception of weather events and their effect upon the development of belief in anthropogenic climate change (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Working Paper 58), University of East Anglia.
16. S.D.Brody, S.Zahran, A.Vedlitz, & H.Grover, (2008). Examining the relationship between physical vulnerability and public perceptions of global climate change in the United States. Environment and Behavior, 40(1), 72–95. doi: 10.1177/0013916506298800
17. J.Brown, (1989). Introduction: Approaches, tools and perceptions. In J.Brown (Ed.), Environmental threats: Perception, analysis and management (pp. 1–18). London: Belhaven Press.
18. R.Buckley, (2006). World adventure capital. In R.Buckley (Ed.), Adventure tourism (pp. 429–442). Wallingford: CABI.
19. Bürki, R. (2000). Klimaänderung und Anpassungsprozesse im Tourismus – dargestellt am Beispiel des Wintertourismus. Publikation der Ostschweizerischen Geographischen.
20. K.Burningham, & M.O'Brien, (1994). Global environmental values and local contexts of action. Sociology, 28(4), 913–932. doi: 10.1177/0038038594028004007
21. R.Butler, C.M.Hall, & J.Jenkins, (1997). Tourism and recreation in rural areas. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
22. S.Clark, & B.White, (2002). A survey of farmers’ attitudes, management strategies and use of weather and seasonal forecasts for coping with climate variability in the perennial pasture zone of SE Australia. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture, 42, 173–188. doi: 10.1071/EA01030
23. P.J.Cohn, D.R.Williams, & M.S.Carroll, (2008). Wildland-urban interface residents’ views on risk and attribution. In W.E.Martin, C.Raish & B.Kent (Eds.), Wildfire risk: Human perceptions and management implications (pp. 23–43). Washington, DC: Resources for the Future.
24. D.L.Dalgleish, & B.White, (1999–2001). CVAP project M5 – seasonal climate information and farmers‘ risk assessment and decision-making. Canberra: Land & Water Australia.
25. J.Dawson, M.Havitz, & D.Scott, (2011). Behavioral adaptation of alpine skiers to climate change: Examining activity involvement and place loyalty. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 28(4), 388–404. doi: 10.1080/10548408.2011.571573
26. Dawson, J., & Scott, D. (2007). Climate change vulnerability of the Vermont ski tourism industry (USA). Annals of Leisure Research, 10(3/4), 550–572. doi: 10.1080/11745398.2007.9686781
27. J.Dawson, & D.Scott, (2013). Managing for climate change in the alpine ski sector. Tourism Management, 35, 244–254. doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2012.07.009
28. J.Dawson, D.Scott, & G.McBoyle, (2009). Climate change analogue analysis of ski tourism in the northeastern USA. Climate Research, 39(1), 1–9. doi: 10.3354/cr00793
29. G.Dubois, & J.P.Ceron, (2006). Tourism and climate change: Proposals for a research agenda. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 14(4), 399–415. doi: 10.2167/jost539.0
30. P.N.Edwards, (2001). Representing the global atmosphere: Computer models, data and knowledge about climate change. In C.A.Miller & P.N.Edwards (Eds.), Changing the atmosphere: Expert knowledge and environmental governance (pp. 31–65). Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
31. B.B.Fitzharris, (2007). How vulnerable is New Zealand to the impacts of climate change?. New Zealand Geographer, 63(3), 160–168. doi: 10.1111/j.1745-7939.2007.00119.x
32. A.Gannon, (1994). Rural tourism as a factor in rural community economic development for economies in transition. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 2(1–2), 51–60. doi: 10.1080/09669589409510683
33. A.Gorman-Murray, (2010). An Australian feeling for snow: Towards understanding cultural and emotional dimensions of climate change. Cultural Studies Review, 16(1), 60–81. doi: 10.5130/csr.v16i1.1449
34. T.Grothmann, & A.Patt, (2005). Adaptive capacity and human cognition: The process of individual adaptation to climate change. Global Environmental Change, 15(3), 199–213. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2005.01.002
35. T.Grothmann, & F.Reusswig, (2006). People at risk of flooding: Why some residents take precautionary action while others do not. Natural Hazards, 38(1), 101–120. doi: 10.1007/s11069-005-8604-6
36. C.M.Hall, & G.W.Kearsley, (2001). Tourism in New Zealand: An introduction. Melbourne: Oxford University Press.
37. L.C.Hamilton, C.Brown, & B.D.Keim, (2007). Ski areas, weather and climate: Time series models for New England case studies. International Journal of Climatology, 27(15), 2113–2124. doi: 10.1002/joc.1502
38. Hansen, J., Marx, S., & Weber, E. U. (2004). The role of climate perceptions, expectations, and forecasts in farmer decision making: The Argentine Pampas and South Florida (International Research Institute for Climate Predictions Technical Report). New York: Columbia University.
39. P.Harris, (1996). Sufficient grounds for optimism? The relationship between perceived controllability and optimistic bias. Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology, 15(1), 9–52. doi: 10.1521/jscp.1996.15.1.9
40. J.Hendrikx, & E.Ö.Hreinsson, (2010). The potential impact of climate change on seasonal snow conditions in New Zealand. Christchurch: National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research.
41. J.Hendrikx, & E.Ö.Hreinsson, (2012). The potential impact of climate change on seasonal snow in New Zealand: Part II – industry vulnerability and future snowmaking potential. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 110(4), 619–630. doi: 10.1007/s00704-012-0713-z
42. J.Hendrikx, E.Ö.Hreinsson, M.P.Clark, & A.B.Mullan, (2012). The potential impact of climate change on seasonal snow in New Zealand: Part I – an analysis using 12 GCMs. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 110(4), 607–618. doi: 10.1007/s00704-012-0711-1
43. K.J.Hennessy, B.Fitzharris, B.C.Bates, N.Harvey, M.Howden, & L.Hughes, (2007). Australia and New Zealand. In M.L.Parry, O.F.Canziani, J.P.Palutikof, P.van der Linden & C.E.Hanson (Eds.), Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 507–540). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
44. J.E.S.Higham, (2005). Sport tourism impacts and environments. In J.E.S.Higham (Ed.), Sport tourism destinations (pp. 223–232). Oxford: Elsevier Butterworth-Heinemann.
45. D.Hopkins, J.E.S.Higham, & S.Becken, (2012). Climate change in a regional context: relative vulnerability in the Australasian skier market. Regional Environmental Change. doi: 10.1007/s10113-012-0352-z
46. D.Hopkins, & K.Maclean, (in press). Climate change perceptions and responses in Scotland's ski industry. Tourism Geographies,
47. T.Horlick-Jones, J.Sime, & N.Pidgeon, (2003). The social dynamics of environmental risk perception: Implications for risk communication research and practice. In N.Pidgeon, R.E.Kasperson & P.Slovic (Eds.), The social amplification of risk (pp. 262–285). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
48. G.R.Jennings, (2005). Interviewing: A focus on qualitative techniques. In B.W.Ritchie, P.Burns & C.Palmer (Eds.), Tourism research methods: Integrating theory with practice (pp. 99–117). Wallingford: CABI.
49. J.Kropp, A.Block, F.Reusswig, K.Zickfeld, & H.J.Schellnhuber, (2006). Semiquantitative assessment of regional climate vulnerability: The North-Rhine Westphalia study. Climatic Change, 76(3), 265–290. doi: 10.1007/s10584-005-9037-7
50. E.Lecomte, A.W.Pang, & J.W.Russell, (1998). Ice storm'98. Ottawa: Canada and Institute for Business and Home Safety.
51. A.Leiserowitz, (2005). American risk perceptions: Is climate change dangerous?. Risk Analysis, 25(6), 1433–1442. doi: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00690.x
52. Y.S.Lincoln, & E.G.Guba, (1985). Naturalistic inquiry. Newbury Park, CA: Sage.
53. I.Lorenzoni, S.Nicholson-Cole, & L.Whitmarsh, (2007). Barriers perceived to engaging with climate change among the UK public and their policy implications. Global Environmental Change, 17(3–4), 445–459. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2007.01.004
54. B.Lovelock, (2011). Single worthwhile policy, seeking legitimacy and implementation: Sustainable tourism at the regional destination level, New Zealand. Policy Quarterly, 7(4), 20–26.
55. S.Macgill, (1989). Risk perception and the public: Insights from research around Sellafield. In J.Brown (Ed.), Environmental threats: Perception, analysis and management (pp. 48–66). London: Belhaven.
56. J.Mason, (2002). Qualitative researching. London: Sage Publications.
57. C.Morrison, & C.M.Pickering, (2013). Perceptions of climate change impacts, adaptation and limits to adaption in the Australian Alps: The ski-tourism industry and key stakeholders. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 21(2), 173–191. doi: 10.1080/09669582.2012.681789
58. New Zealand Snowsports Council (2012). Ski area statistics. Wellington: NZSC/SAANZ/NZSIF.
59. New Zealand Tourism Research Institute (2005). The economic significance of the southern lakes ski areas – 2005 winter season. Auckland: Auckland University of Technology.
60. NIWA. (2010). New Zealand snow areas confident they will adapt to any risks from climate change. Retrieved May 16, 2012, from http://www.niwa.co.nz/
61. C.Noy, (2008). Sampling knowledge: The hermeneutics of snowball sampling in qualitative research. International Journal of Social Research Methodology, 11(4), 327–344. doi: 10.1080/13645570701401305
62. K.O'Brien, L.Sygna, & J.E.Haugen, (2004). Vulnerable or resilient? A multi-scale assessment of climate impacts and vulnerability in Norway. Climatic Change, 64(1), 193–225. doi: 10.1023/B:CLIM.0000024668.70143.80
63. R.E.O'Connor, R.J.Bord, & A.Fisher, (1999). Risk perceptions, general environmental beliefs, and willingness to address climate change. Risk Analysis, 19(3), 461–471.
64. R.E.O'Connor, R.J.Bord, B.Yarnal, & N.Wiefek, (2002). Who wants to reduce greenhouse gas emissions?. Social Science Quarterly, 83(1), 1–17. doi: 10.1111/1540-6237.00067
65. U.Olausson, (2009). Global warming – global responsibility? Media frames of collective action and scientific certainty. Public Understanding of Science, 18(4), 421–436. doi: 10.1177/0963662507081242
66. K.O'Reilly, (2005). Ethnographic methods. Abingdon: Routledge.
67. C.Orchiston, (2012a). Seismic risk scenario planning and sustainable tourism management: Christchurch and the Alpine Fault zone, South Island, New Zealand. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 20(1), 59–79. doi: 10.1080/09669582.2011.617827
68. C.Orchiston, (2012b). Tourism business preparedness, resilience and disaster planning in a region of high seismic risk: The case of the Southern Alps, New Zealand. Current Issues in Tourism. doi: 10.1080/13683500.2012.741115
69. N.Oreskes, (2004). The scientific consensus on climate change. Science, 306(5702), 1686–1686. doi: 10.1126/science.1103618
70. D.B.Park, K.W.Lee, H.S.Choi, & Y.Yoon, (2012). Factors influencing social capital in rural tourism communities in South Korea. Tourism Management, 33(6), 1511–1520. doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2012.02.005
71. A.Patt, & C.Gwata, (2002). Effective seasonal climate forecast applications: Examining constraints for subsistence farmers in Zimbabwe. Global Environmental Change, 12(3), 185–195. doi: 10.1016/S0959-3780(02)00013-4
72. M.Q.Patton, (2002). Qualitative research and evaluation methods. London: Sage Publications.
73. C.M.Pickering, (2011). Changes in demand for tourism with climate change: A case study of visitation patterns to six ski resorts in Australia. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 19(6), 767–781. doi: 10.1080/09669582.2010.544741
74. C.M.Pickering, & R.C.Buckley, (2010). Climate response by the ski industry: The shortcomings of snowmaking for Australian resorts. Ambio, 39(6), 430–438. doi: 10.1007/s13280-010-0039-y
75. C.M.Pickering, J.G.Castley, & M.Burtt, (2010). Skiing less often in a warmer world: Attitudes of tourists to climate change in an Australian ski resort. Geographical Research, 48(2), 137–147. doi: 10.1111/j.1745-5871.2009.00614.x
76. N.Pidgeon, (1998). Risk assessment, risk values and the social science programme: Why we do need risk perception research. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 59(1), 5–15. doi: 10.1016/S0951-8320(97)00114-2
77. C.Rixen, M.Teich, C.Lardelli, D.Gallati, M.Pohl, & M.Pütz, (2011). Winter tourism and climate change in the alps: An assessment of resource consumption, snow reliability, and future snowmaking potential. Mountain Research and Development, 31(3), 229–236. doi: 10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-10-00112.1
78. D.Scott, (2006). US ski industry adaptation to climate change: Hard, soft and policy strategies. In S.Gössling & C.M.Hall (Eds.), Tourism and global environmental change: Ecological, social, economic and political interrelationships (pp. 262 Abingdon: Routledge).
79. D.Scott, S.Gössling, & C.M.Hall, (2012a). International tourism and climate change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 3(3), 213–232. doi: 10.1002/wcc.165
80. D.Scott, C.M.Hall, & S.Gössling, (2012b). Tourism and climate change: Impacts, adaptation and mitigation. Abingdon: Routledge.
81. D.Scott, G.McBoyle, & B.Mills, (2003). Climate change and the skiing industry in southern Ontario (Canada): Exploring the importance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation. Climate Research, 23(2), 171–181. doi: 10.3354/cr023171
82. D.Scott, G.McBoyle, A.Minogue, & B.Mills, (2006). Climate change and the sustainability of ski-based tourism in eastern North America: A reassessment. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 14(4), 376–398. doi: 10.2167/jost550.0
83. S.Shackley, & R.Deanwood, (2002). Stakeholder perceptions of climate change impacts at the regional scale: Implications for the effectiveness of regional and local responses. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 45(3), 381–402. doi: 10.1080/09640560220133414
84. M.Siegrist, & H.Gutscher, (2006). Flooding risks: A comparison of lay people's perceptions and expert's assessments in Switzerland. Risk Analysis, 26(4), 971–979. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00792.x
85. R.A.Singleton, Jr., & B.C.Straits, (2010). Approaches to social research (5th ed.). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
86. M.W.Slimak, & T.Dietz, (2006). Personal values, beliefs, and ecological risk perception. Risk Analysis, 26(6), 1689–1705. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00832.x
87. P.Slovic, (1987). Perception of risk. Science, 236(4799), 280–285. doi: 10.1126/science.3563507
88. P.Slovic, (2000). The perception of risk. London: Earthscan Publications.
89. SnowPlanet. (2012, 23 November). 2011 Visitor Numbers. Auckland, New Zealand: SnowPlanet.
90. Statistics New Zealand. (2011). International Visitor Arrivals. International Visitor Survey.
91. Statistics New Zealand. (2013). Quick Stats about Queenstown-Lakes district. Retrieved January 24, 2013, from http://www.stats.govt.nz/Census/2006CensusHomePage/QuickStats/AboutAPlace/SnapShot.aspx?id=2000070&type=ta&ParentID=1000014
92. R.Steiger, J.Dawson, & J.Stotter, (2012). Last chance tourism in alpine regions: Last chance to ski?. In H.Lemelin, J.Dawson & E.J.Stewart (Eds.), Last chance tourism (pp. 42–54). Abingdon: Routledge.
93. R.Steiger, & M.Mayer, (2008). Snowmaking and climate change. Mountain Research and Development, 28(3), 292–298. doi: 10.1659/mrd.0978
94. P.C.Stern, (2000). New environmental theories: Toward a coherent theory of environmentally significant behavior. Journal of Social Issues, 56(3), 407–424. doi: 10.1111/0022-4537.00175
95. K.Tervo, (2008). The operational and regional vulnerability of winter tourism to climate variability and change: The case of the Finnish nature-based tourism entrepreneurs. Scandinavian Journal of Hospitality and Tourism, 8(4), 317–332. doi: 10.1080/15022250802553696
96. W.Unbehaun, U.Pröbstl, & W.Haider, (2008). Trends in winter sport tourism: Challenges for the future. Tourism Review, 63(1), 36–47. doi: 10.1108/16605370810861035
97. E.U.Weber, (2006). Experience-based and description-based perceptions of long-term risk: Why global warming does not scare us (yet). Climatic Change, 77(1), 103–120. doi: 10.1007/s10584-006-9060-3
98. E.U.Weber, (2010). What shapes perceptions of climate change?. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 1(3), 332–342.
99. N.D.Weinstein, (1980). Unrealistic optimism about future life events. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39(5), 806–820. doi: 10.1037/0022-3514.39.5.806
100. N.D.Weinstein, (1984). Why it won't happen to me: Perceptions of risk factors and susceptibility. Health Psychology, 3(5), 431–457. doi: 10.1037/0278-6133.3.5.431
101. N.D.Weinstein, (1989). Optimistic biases about personal risks. Science, 246(4935), 1232–1233. doi: 10.1126/science.2686031
102. L.Whitmarsh, (2008). Are flood victims more concerned about climate change than other people? The role of direct experience in risk perception and behavioural response. Journal of Risk Research, 11(3), 351–374. doi: 10.1080/13669870701552235
103. P.Williams, & P.R.Fidgeon, (2000). Addressing participation constraint: A case study of potential skiers. Tourism Management, 21(4), 379–393. doi: 10.1016/S0261-5177(99)00083-7
104. C.Wolfsegger, S.Gössling, & D.Scott, (2008). Climate change risk appraisal in the Austrian ski industry. Tourism Review International, 12(1), 13–23. doi: 10.3727/154427208785899948