Experience-based and description-based perceptions of long-term risk: Why global warming does not scare us (yet)

Climatic Change

Volumn 77, Issue 1-2, 2006, Pages 103-120

  Weber, Elke U ^a  

^a Och Spine at New York Presbyterian Hospitals   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CITIZENRIES; STATISTICAL NATURE;

COMPUTER SIMULATION; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK PERCEPTION;

GLOBAL WARMING;

BEHAVIORAL RESPONSE; CLIMATE CHANGE; GLOBAL WARMING; GOVERNMENT; LONG-TERM CHANGE; MANAGEMENT PRACTICE; PERCEPTION; RISK ASSESSMENT; SIMULATION;

EID: 33747644156     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-006-9060-3     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (60)

1. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment: 2004, Impacts of a Warming Arctic. Cambridge University Press.
2. Ainslie, G.: 1975, 'Specious reward: A behavioral theory of impulsiveness and impulse control', Psychol. Bull. 82, 463-496.
3. Berbaum, K. S., et al.: 1991, 'Time course of satisfaction of search', Invest. Radiol. 26, 640-648.
4. Chaiken, S., and Trope, Y.: 1999, Dual-Process Theories in Social Psychology. New York: Guilford.
5. Dake, K.: 1991, 'Orienting dispositions in the perception of risk: An analysis of contemporary worldviews and cultural biases'. J. Cross-Cult. Psychol. 22, 61-82.
6. Damasio, A. R.: 1993, Descartes' Error. New York: Avon Books.
7. Douglas, M.: 1985, Risk Acceptability According to the Social Sciences. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
8. Douglas, M. and Wildavsky, A.: 1982, Risk and Culture: An Essay on the Selection of Technological and Environmental Dangers. Berkeley: University of California Press.
9. Dunlap, R. E. and Saad, L.: 2001, Only One in Four Americans are Anxious about the Environment. Gallup News Service.
10. Epstein, S.: 1994, 'Integration of the cognitive and the psychodynamic unconscious', Am. Psychol. 49, 709-724.
11. Finucane, M. L., Slovic, P., Mertz, C. K., Flynn, J., and Satterfield, T. A.: 2000, 'Gender, race, perceived risk: The "white male" effect', Health Risk and Society 2, 159-172.
12. Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., Lichtenstein, S., Read, S., and Combs, B.: 1978, 'How safe is safe enough? A psychometric study of attitudes towards technological risks and benefits', Policy Sci. 9, 127-152.
13. Flynn, J., Slovic, P., and Mertz, C. K.: 1994, 'Gender, race, and perception of environmental health risks', Risk Anal. 14(6), 1101-1108.
14. Goldstein, W. M. and Weber, E. U.: 1995, 'Content and discontent: Indications and implications of domain specificity in preferential decision making', In: J. R. Busemeyer, R. Hastie, and D. L. Medin (eds.), Decision Making from a Cognitive Perspective. The Psychology of Learning and Motivation, Vol. 32 (pp. 83-136). San Diego: Academic Press.
15. Reprinted in W. M. Goldstein and R. M. Hogarth (eds.), Research on Judgment and Decision Making (pp. 566-617). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1997.
16. Hansen, J. E.: 2004, 'Diffusing the Global Warming Time Bomb', Sci. Am. 290(3), 68-77.
17. Hansen, J., Marx, S., and Weber, E. U.: 2004, The Role of Climate Perceptions, Expectations, and Forecasts in Farmer Decision Making: The Argentine Pampas and South Florida. International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI), Palisades, NY: Technical Report 04-01.
18. Hertwig, R., Barron, G., Weber, E. U., and Erev, I.: 2004, 'Decisions from experience and the effect of rare events', Psychol. Sci. 15, 534-539.
19. Hertwig, R., Barron, G., Weber, E. U., and Erev, I.: 2006, Rare risky prospects: Different when valued through a windowof sampled experiences. In: K. Fiedler and P. Juslin (eds.), Information Sampling as a Key to Understanding Adaptive Cognition in an Uncertain Environment. (pp. 72-91) New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
20. Holtgrave, D. and Weber, E. U.: 1993, 'Dimensions of risk perception for financial and health - and - safety risks', Risk Anal. 13, 553-558.
21. Hsee, C. K. and Rottenstreich: 2004, 'Music, Pandas and Muggers: On the affective psychology of value', J. Exp. Psychol. Gen. 133, 23-30.
22. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: 2001, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P. J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., and Johnson, C. A. (eds.), Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U.K.
23. Kahneman, D., and Tversky, A.: 1979, 'Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk', Econometrica 47, 263-292.
24. Laibson, D.: 1997, 'Golden eggs and hyperbolic discounting', Quart. J. Econ. 112, 443-477.
25. Leiserowitz, A.: 2004, 'Surveying the Impact of "The Day After Tomorrow"', Environment 46, 23-44.
26. Leiserowitz, A. (this volume) Climate change risk perception and policy preferences: The role of affect, imagery, and values. Climatic Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-006-9059-9.
27. Linville, P. W., and Fischer G. W.: 1991, 'Preferences for separating and combining events: A social application of prospect theory and the mental accounting model. J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 60, 5-23.
28. Loewenstein, G. and Elster, J. (eds.): 1992, Choice Over Time. New York: Russell Sage.
29. Loewenstein G. F., Weber, E. U., Hsee, C. K., Welch, E.: 2001, 'Risk as feelings', Psychol. Bull. 127, 267-286.
30. Luce, R. D. and Weber, E. U.: 1986, 'An axiomatic theory of conjoint, expected risk', J. Math. Psychol. 30, 188-205.
31. McClure, S. M., Laibson, D. I., Loewenstein, G., and Cohen, J.D.: 2004, 'Separate neural systems value immediate and delayed monetary rewards', Science 306, 503-507.
32. Mischel, W., Grusec, J., and Masters, J. C.: 1969, 'Effects of expected delay time on the subjective value of rewards and punishments', J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 11, 363-373.
33. O'Connor, R. E., Bord, R. J., and Fisher, A.: 1998, 'The curious impact of knowledge about climate change on risk perceptions and willingness to sacrifice', Risk Dec. Policy 3(2), 145-155.
34. O'Connor, R. E., Bord, R. J., and Fisher, A.: 1999, 'Risk perceptions, general environmental beliefs, and willingness to address climate change', Risk Anal. 19, 461-471.
35. O'Donoghue, T. and Rabin, M.: 1999, 'Doing It Now or Later', Am. Econ. Rev. 89, 103-124.
36. Palmer, C. G. S.: 1996, 'Risk perception: An empirical study of the relationship between world view and the risk construct', Risk Anal. 16, 717-723.
37. Payne, J. W., Bettman, J. R., and Johnson, E. J.: 1993, The Adaptive Decision Maker. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
38. Peters, E. and Slovic, P.: 1996, 'The role of affect and worldview as orienting dispositions in the perception and acceptance of nuclear power', J. Appl. Soc. Psychol. 26, 1427-1453.
39. Peters, E. and Slovic, P.: 2000, 'The springs of action: Affective and analytical information processing in choice', Pers. Soc. Psychol. Bull. 26, 1465-1475.
40. Rottenstreich, Y. and Hsee, C. K.: 2001, 'Money, kisses, and electric shocks: An affective psychology of risk', Psychol. Sci. 12, 185-190
41. Sethi-Iyengar, S., Huberman, G., and Jiang, W.: 2004, 'How much choice is too much? Contributions to 401(k) retirement plans. In O. S. Mitchell and S. P. Utkus (Eds.), Pension Design and Structure: New Lessons from Behavioral Finance. Part I. Research on Decision-Making Under Uncertainty 83-96, Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
42. Sinaceur, M. and Heath, C.: 2004, 'Emotional and deliberative reactions to a public crisis: Mad Cow Disease in France', Psychol. Sci. in press.
43. Sloman, S. A.: 1996, 'The empirical case for two systems of reasoning', Psychol. Bull. 119(1), 3-22.
44. Slovic, P.: 1987, 'Perception of risk', Science 236, 280-285.
45. Slovic, P.: 1995, 'The construction of preference', Am. Psychol. 50, 364-371.
46. Slovic, P.: 1997, Trust, emotion, sex, politics, and science: Surveying the risk-assessment battlefield. In: M. Bazerman, D. Messick, A. Tenbrunsel, and K. Wade-Benzoni (eds.), Psychological Perspectives to Environmental and Ethical Issues in Management (pp. 277-313) San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass.
47. Slovic, P.: 1999, 'Trust, emotion, sex, politics, and science: Surveying the risk-assessment battlefield', Risk Anal. 19(4), 689-701.
48. Slovic, P., Finucane, M., Peters, E., and MacGregor, D. G.: 2002b, 'Rational actors or rational fools: Implications of the affect heuristic for behavioral economics', J. Socio-Econ. 31(4), 329-342.
49. Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., and Lichtenstein, S.: 1986, The psychometric study of risk perception. In: V. T. Covello, J. Menkes, and J. Mumpower (eds.), Risk Evaluation and Management. New York, NY: Plenum Press.
50. Sunstein, C. (this volume), 'Precautions against what? The availability heuristic, global warming, and cross-cultural risk perceptions', Climatic Change.
51. Trope, Y., and Liberman, N.: 2003, 'Temporal construal', Psychol. Rev. 110, 403-421.
52. Tversky, A., and Kahneman, D.: 1992, 'Advances in prospect theory, cumulative representation of uncertainty', Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 5, 297-323.
53. Weber, E. U.: 1997, Perception and expectation of climate change: Precondition for economic and technological adaptation. In: Max Bazerman, David Messick, Ann. Tenbrunsel, and Kimberley Wade-Benzoni (eds.), Psychological Perspectives to Environmental and Ethical Issues in Management (pp. 314-341), San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass.
54. Weber, E. U.: 2001a, 'Personality and risk taking. In N. J. Smelser and P. B. Baltes (Eds.), International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences (pp. 11274-11276), Oxford, UK: Elsevier Science Limited.
55. Weber, E. U.: 2001b, Decision and choice: Risk, empirical studies. In N. J. Smelser and P. B. Baltes (Eds.), International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences (pp. 13347-1335 1), Oxford, UK: Elsevier Science Limited.
56. Weber, E. U., Blais, A.-R., and Betz, N.: 2002, 'A domain-specific risk-attitude scale: Measuring risk perceptions and risk behaviors', J. Behav. Dec. Mak. 15, 263-290.
57. Weber, E. U. and Johnson, E. J.: 2006, Constructing preferences from memory. In: Lichtenstein, S., and Slovic, P.: (eds.), The Construction of Preference. New York NY: Cambridge University Press.
58. Weber, E. U., Johnson, E. J., Milch, K., Chang, H., Brodscholl, J., and Goldstein, D.: 2006, Asymmetries in discounting in intertemporal choice: A query theory account. Working Paper, Center for the Decision Sciences, Columbia University.
59. Weber, E. U., Shafir, S., and Blais, A.-R.: 2004, 'Predicting risk-sensitivity in humans and lower animals: Risk as variance or coefficient of variation', Psychol. Rev. 111, 430-445.
60. Yechiam, E., Barron, G., and Erev. I.: 2004, 'The role of personal experience in contributing to different patterns of response to rare terrorist attacks', J. Conflict Res., in press.