Dynamics of landscape patterns in an inland river delta of Central Asia based on a cellular automata-Markov model

Regional Environmental Change

Volumn 15, Issue 2, 2015, Pages 277-289

  Luo, Geping ^a   Amuti, Tureniguli ^a,b   Zhu, Lei ^c   Mambetov, Bulkajyr T ^d   Maisupova, Bagila ^d   Zhang, Chi ^a  

^a XINJIANG INSTITUTE OF ECOLOGY AND GEOGRAPHY   (China)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES   (China)

^c XINJIANG AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY   (China)

^d UUUspanov Kazakh Research Institute of Soil Science and Agrichemistry   (Kazakhstan)

Author keywords

Cellular automata Markov model; Ili River delta; Landscape pattern; Remote sensing; Simulation

Indexed keywords

EID: 84939873312     PISSN: 14363798     EISSN: 1436378X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-014-0638-4     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. Abdrasilov SA, Tulebaeva KA (1994) Dynamics of the Ili delta with consideration of fluctuations of the level Lake Balkhash. Hydrotech Constr 28:421–426
2. Abulaiti R (2012) Trends of precipitation over the Ili valley. Gansu Water Resour Hydropower Technol 48(7):1–4 (in Chinese)
3. Anderson JR, Hardy EE, Roach JT, Witmer RE (1976) A land use and land cover classification system for use with remote sensor data. US Geol Surv Prof Pap 964:1–36
4. Baker C, Lawrence R, Montague C, Patten D (2006) Mapping wetlands and riparian areas using Landsat ETM + imagery and decision-tree-based models. Wetlands 26:465–474
5. Boerner REJ, DeMers MN, Simpson JW, Artigas FJ, Silva A, Berns LA (1996) Markov models of inertia and dynamic on two contiguous Ohio landscapes. Geogr Anal 28:56–66
6. Burgi M, Hersperger AM, Schneeberger N (2004) Driving forces of landscape change—current and new directions. Landsc Ecol 19:857–868
7. Caruso G, Rounsevell M, Cojocaru G (2005) Exploring a spatio-dynamic neighbourhood-based model of residential behaviour in the Brussels periurban area. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 19:103–123
8. Chander G, Markham BL, Helder DL (2009) Summary of current radiometric calibration coefficients for Landsat MSS, TM, ETM +, and EO-1 ALI sensors. Remote Sens Environ 113:893–903
9. Donker DK, Hasman A, Van Geijn HP (1993) Interpretation of low kappa values. Int J Biomed Comput 33:55–64
10. Eastman JR (1999) Idrisi 32: user’s guide. Clark University, Worcester
11. Georgescu M, Miguez-Macho G, Steyaert LT, Weaver CP (2009) Climatic effects of 30 years of landscape change over the Greater Phoenix, Arizona, region: 1. Surface energy budget changes. J Geophys Res Atmos 114:1–17
12. Gong P, Niu Z, Cheng X, Zhao K, Zhou D, Guo J, Liang L, Wang X, Li D, Huang H, Wang Y, Wang K, Li W, Wang X, Ying Q, Yang Z, Ye Y, Li Z, Zhuang D, Chi Y, Zhou H, Yan J (2010) China’s wetland change (1990–2000) determined by remote sensing. Sci China Earth Sci 53:1036–1042
13. Guan D, Li H, Inohae T, Su W, Nagaie T, Hokao K (2011) Modeling urban land use change by the integration of cellular automaton and Markov model. Ecol Model 222(20–22):3761–3772
14. Hepinstall JA, Alberti M, Marzluff JM (2008) Predicting land cover change and avian community responses in rapidly urbanizing environments. Lands Ecol 23:1257–1276
15. Houet T, Hubert-Moy L (2006) Modelling and projecting land-use and land-cover changes with a cellular automaton in considering landscape trajectories: an improvement for simulation of plausible future states. EARSeL eProc 5:63–76
16. Hwang C, Kao Y-C, Tangdamrongsub N (2011) Preliminary analysis of lake level and water storage changes over lakes Baikal and Balkhash from satellite altimetry and gravimetry. Terr Atmos Ocean Sci 22:97–108
17. Iacono M, Levinson D, El-Geneidy A, Wasfi R (2012) A Markov chain model of land use change in the twin cities, 1958–2005. http://nexus.umn.edu/Papers/MarkovLU
18. Kamusoko C, Aniya M, Adi B, Manjoro M (2009) Rural sustainability under threat in Zimbabwe-Simulation of future land use/cover changes in the Bindura district based on the Markov-cellular automata model[J]. Appl Geogr 29(3):435–447
19. Kezer K, Matsuyama H (2006) Decrease of river runoff in the Lake Balkhash basin in Central Asia. Hydrol Process 20:1407–1423
20. Kipshakbaev NK, Abdrasilov SA (1994) Effect of economic activity on the hydrologic regime and dynamics of the Ili delta. Hydrotech Constr 28:416–418
21. Lal R, Suleimenov M, Stewart BA, Hansen DO, Doraiswamy P (2007) Climate change and terrestrial carbon sequestration in Central Asia. Taylor & Francis, London
22. Loveland TR, Sohl TL, Stehman SV, Gallant AL, Sayler KL, Napton DE (2002) A strategy for estimating the rates of recent United States land-cover changes. Photogramm Eng Remote Sens 68:1091–1099
23. Lu D, Weng Q (2007) A survey of image classification methods and techniques for improving classification performance. Int J Remote Sens 28:823–870
24. Luo GP, Yin CY, Chen X, Xu WQ, Lu L (2010) Combining system dynamic model and CLUE-S model to improve land use scenario analyses at regional scale: a case study of Sangong watershed in Xinjiang, China. Ecol Complex 7:198–207
25. Mikhailov VN (2004) The impact of deltas on the mean long-term water river runoff. Water Resour 31:351–356
26. Mondal P, Southworth J (2010) Evaluation of conservation interventions using a cellular automata-Markov model. For Ecol Manag 260(10):1716–1725
27. Myint SW, Wang L (2006) Multicriteria decision approach for land use land cover change using Markov chain analysis and a cellular automata approach. Can J Remote Sens 32:390–404
28. Niu Z, Gong P, Cheng X, Guo J, Wang L, Huang H, Shen S, Wu Y, Wang X, Wang X, Ying Q, Liang L, Zhang L, Wang L, Yao Q, Yang Z, Guo Z, Dai Y (2009) Geographical characteristics of China’s wetlands derived from remotely sensed data. Sci China, Ser D Earth Sci 52:723–738
29. Pontius GR, Malanson J (2005) Comparison of the structure and accuracy of two land change models. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 19:243–265
30. Propastin PA (2008) Simple model for monitoring Balkhash Lake water levels and Ili River discharges: application of remote sensing. Lakes Reserv Res Manag 13:77–81
31. Schneider LC, Pontius RG (2001) Modeling land-use change in the Ipswich watershed, Massachusetts, USA. Agric Ecosyst Environ 85:83–94
32. Shafizadeh MH, Helbich M (2013) Spatiotemporal urbanization processes in the megacity of Mumbai, India: a Markov chains-cellular automata urban growth model. Appl Geogr 40:140–149
33. Sivanpillai R, Latchininsk AV, Driese KL, Kambulin VE (2006) Mapping locust habitats in River Ili Delta, Kazakhstan, using Landsat imagery. Agric Ecosyst Environ 117:128–134
34. Starodubtsev VM, Truskavetskiy SR (2011) Desertification processes in the Ili River delta under anthropogenic pressure. Water Resour 38:253–256
35. Stevens D, Dragicevic S (2007) A GIS-based irregular cellular automata model of land-use change. Environ Plan B Plan Design 34:708–724
36. Stevens D, Dragicevic S, Rothley K (2007) iCity: a GIS-CA modelling tool for urban planning and decision making. Environ Model Softw 22:761–773
37. Sun H, Chen Y, Li W, Li F, Chen Y, Hao X, Yang Y (2010) Variation and abrupt change of climate in Ili River Basin, Xinjiang. J Geogr Sci 20:652–666
38. Tacis Central Asia Action Programme 2006 (2010a) Development and improvement of policy instruments for environmental protection, Republic of Kazakhstan, EuropeAid/127636/C/SER/KZ, Ili-Balkhash LEAP: Task 3 report—hydrology, pp 1–34
39. Tacis Central Asia Action Programme 2006 (2010b) Development and improvement of policy instruments for environmental protection, Republic of Kazakhstan, EuropeAid/127636/C/SER/KZ, Result 3–1: Ili-Balkhash LEAP, pp 1–56
40. Veldkamp A, Lambin EF (2001) Predicting land-use change. Agric Ecosyst Environ 85:1–6
41. Verburg PH, Soepboer W, Limpiada R, Espaldon MVO, Sharifa M, Veldkamp A (2002) Land use change modelling at the regional scale: the CLUE-S model. Environ Manag 30:391–405
42. Verburg PH, de Nijs TCM, van Eck JR, Visser H, de Jong K (2004a) A method to analyse neighbourhood characteristics of land use patterns. Comput Environ Urban Syst 28:667–690
43. Verburg PH, Schot P, Dijst M, Veldkamp A (2004b) Land use change modelling: current practice and research priorities. GeoJournal 61:309–324
44. Verburg PH, Eickhout B, van Meijl H (2008) A multi-scale, multi-model approach for analyzing the future dynamics of European land use. Ann Reg Sci 42:57–77
45. Wang JY, Lu JX (2009) Hydrological and ecological impacts of water resources development in the Ili River Basin. J Nat Resour 24(7):1299–1310 (in Chinese)
46. Weng QH (2002) Land use change analysis in the Zhujiang Delta of China using satellite remote sensing, GIS and stochastic modelling. J Environ Manag 64:273–284
47. White R, Engelen G (2000) High-resolution integrated modelling of the spatial dynamics of urban and regional systems. Comput Environ Urban Syst 24:383–400
48. Xie L, Long A, Mi D, Wang J (2011) Study on ecological water consumption in delta downstream of Ili River. J Glaciol Geocryol 33(6):1330–1340
49. Yeh AGO, Li X (2003) Simulation of development alternatives using neural networks, cellular automata, and GIS for urban planning. Photogramm Eng Remote Sens 69:1043–1052
50. Yeh AGO, Li X (2006) Errors and uncertainties in urban cellular automata. Comput Environ Urban Syst 30:10–28