How to avoid unsustainable side effects of managing climate risk in drylands - The supplementary feeding controversy

Agricultural Systems

Volumn 139, Issue , 2015, Pages 153-165

  Müller, Birgit ^a   Schulze, Jule ^a   Kreuer, David ^a,b   Linstädter, Anja ^c   Frank, Karin ^a  

^a HELMHOLTZ CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH UFZ   (Germany)

^b UNIVERSITY OF LEIPZIG   (Germany)

^c UNIVERSITY OF COLOGNE   (Germany)

Author keywords

Ecological economic simulation model; Livestock grazing; Morocco; Rangelands; Semi arid; Sustainable land use

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; DROUGHT; DRYLAND FARMING; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; FODDER; FOOD SUPPLEMENTATION; LAND USE CHANGE; LONG-TERM CHANGE; PASTORALISM; PASTURE; RANGELAND; RISK ASSESSMENT; SEMIARID REGION; SMALLHOLDER; SUSTAINABILITY;

MOROCCO;

ANIMALIA;

EID: 84939425660     PISSN: 0308521X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2015.07.001     Document Type: Article

References (94)

1. Abdelkader I., Ferchichi A., Chaieb M. Estimation of aboveground biomass of Artemisia herba-alba in Tunisian arid zone. Int. J. Bot. 2008, 4(1):109-112.
2. Ahmed A.G.M., Azeze A., Babiker M., Tsegaye D. Post-drought recovery strategies among the pastoral households in the horn of Africa: a review. Development Research Report Series 2002, 3. OSSREA, Addis Ababa.
3. Akasbi Z., Oldeland J., Dengler J., Finckh M. Social and ecological constraints on decision making by transhumant pastoralists: a case study from the Moroccan Atlas Mountains. J. Mt. Sci. 2012, 9(3):307-321.
4. Akasbi Z., Oldeland J., Dengler J., Finckh M. Volume-biomass functions reveal the effect of browsing on three Moroccan dwarf shrubs. Afr. J. Range Forage Sci. 2012, 29(1):31-36.
5. Aktipis C., Cronk L., de Aguiar R. Risk-pooling and herd survival: an agent-based model of a Maasai gift-giving system. Hum. Ecol. 2011, 39(2):131-140.
6. Les végétaliseurs: Herbier wiki: Armoise herbe blanche (last accessed: 30.09.2014). http://www.les-vegetaliseurs.com/partagez-86-herbierwiki/planche-219-armoiseherbeblanche.html.
7. Bailey D.W., Welling G.R. Modification of cattle grazing distribution with dehydrated molasses supplement. J. Range Manag. 1999, 52(6):575-582.
8. Born K., Fink A.H., Paeth H. Dry and wet periods in the northwestern Maghreb for present day and future climate conditions. Meteorol. Z. 2008, 17:533-551.
9. Bourbouze A. Systèmes d'élevage et production animale dans les steppes du nord de l'Afrique : une relecture de la société pastorale du Maghreb. Sécheresse 2006, 17(1-2):31-39.
10. Breuer I. Livelihood security and mobility in the High Atlas mountains. Globalizing Scapes of Mobility and Insecurity 2007, 165-179. Dr. Ludwig Reichert Verlag, Wiesbaden. J. Gertel, I. Breuer (Eds.).
11. Breuer I., Kreuer D. Market spaces in a globalising periphery: livestock trade, borders, and liberalisation in eastern Morocco. Economic Spaces of Pastoral Production and Commodity Systems: Markets and Livelihoods (Ashgate Economic Geography) 2011, 151-174. Ashgate Publishing Limited. J. Gertel, R. Le Heron (Eds.).
12. Briske D.D., Sayre N.F., Huntsinger L., Fernandez-Gimenez M., Budd B., Derner J.D. Origin, persistence, and resolution of the rotational grazing debate: integrating human dimensions into rangeland research. Rangel. Ecol. Manag. 2011, 64(4):325-334.
13. Carter M.R., Barrett C.B. The economics of poverty traps and persistent poverty: an asset-based approach. J. Dev. Stud. 2006, 42(2):178-199.
14. Chaarani B., Mahi I. Impact of drought on livestock productivity in Morocco, options Méditerranéennes, series A, no. 80 available at:, (last accessed: 30.09.2014). http://om.ciheam.org/om/pdf/a80/00800418.pdf.
15. Chantarat S., Mude A.G., Barrett C.B., Carter M.R. Designing index-based livestock insurance for managing asset risk in northern Kenya. J. Risk Insur. 2013, 80(1):205-237.
16. Chapin F.S., Carpenter S.R., Kofinas G.P., Folke C., Abel N., Clark W.C., Olsson P., Stafford Smith M., Walker B., Young O.R., Berkes F., Biggs R., Grove J.M., Naylor R.L., Pinkerton E., Steffen W., Swanson F.J. Ecosystem stewardship: sustainability strategies for a rapidly changing planet. Trends Ecol. Evol. 2010, 25(4):241-249.
17. Davies J. Turning the tide: enabling sustainable development for Africa's mobile pastoralists. Nat. Res. Forum 2008, 32(3):175-184.
18. Diaz-Solis H., Kothmann M.M., Grant W.E., De Luna-Villarreal R. Application of a simple ecological sustainability simulator (SESS) as a management tool in the semi-arid rangelands of northeastern Mexico. Agric. Syst. 2006, 88(2-3):514-527.
19. DPA Etude sur l'operationnalisation de la stratégie de développement des parcours et de l'elevage dans l'oriental 2006, Ministere de 'agriculture du developpement rural et de peches maritimes: DPA Bouarfa, Royaume du Maroc.
20. Dressler G., Müller B., Frank K. Mobility - a panacea for pastoralism? An ecological-economic modelling approach. Proceedings of the iEMSs Sixth Biennial Meeting: International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software (iEMSs 2012) 2012, 8. International Environmental Modelling and Software Society, Leipzig, Germany, (July 2012).
21. Duru M., Jouany C., Theau J.P., Granger S., Cruz P. A plant-functional-type approach tailored for stakeholders involved in field studies to predict forage services and plant biodiversity provided by grasslands. Grass Forage Sci. 2015, 70(1):2-18.
22. Erb K.H., Mayer A., Kastner T., Sallet K.-E., Haberl H. The impact of industrial grain fed livestock production on food security: an extended literature review 2012, Compassion in World Farming, The Tubney Charitable Trust and World Society for the Protection of Animals, UK: Vienna, Austria.
23. FAO The State of Food and Agriculture 2009 - Livestock in the Balance 2009, FAO, Rome, (available at: http://www.fao.org/docrep/012/i0680e/i0680e00.htm, last accessed: 30.09.2014).
24. FAO World Livestock 2011 - Livestock in Food Security 2011, FAO, Rome.
25. FAO Livestock and Landscapes available at:, (last accessed:30.09.2014). http://www.fao.org/docrep/018/ar591e/ar591e.pdf.
26. Fraser E.D.G., Dougill A.J., Hubacek K., Quinn C.H., Sendzimir J., Termansen M. Assessing vulnerability to climate change in dryland livelihood systems: conceptual challenges and interdisciplinary solutions. Ecol. Soc. 2011, 16(3):3.
27. Freier K.P., Schneider U.A., Finckh M. Dynamic interactions between vegetation and land use in semi-arid Morocco: using a Markov process for modeling rangelands under climate change. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2011, 140(3-4):462-472.
28. Grimm V., Berger U., Bastiansen F., Eliassen S., Ginot V., Giske J., Goss-Custard J., Grand T., Heinz S., Huse G., Huth A., Jepsen J.U., Jørgensen C., Mooij W.M., Müller B., Pe'er G., Piou C., Railsback S.F., Robbins A.M., Robbins M.M., Rossmanith E., Rüger N., Strand E., Souissi S., Stillman R.A., Vabø R., Visser U., DeAngelis D.L. A standard protocol for describing individual-based and agent-based models. Ecol. Model. 2006, 198(1-2):115-126.
29. Grimm V., Berger U., DeAngelis D.L., Polhill J.G., Giske J., Railsback S.F. The ODD protocol: a review and first update. Ecol. Model. 2010, 221(23):2760-2768.
30. Haile M. Weather patterns, food security and humanitarian response in sub-Saharan Africa. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 2005, 360(1463):2169-2182.
31. Hazell P. Public policy and drought management in agropastoral systems. Property Rights, Risk, and Livestock Development in Africa 2000, International Food Policy Research Institute, International Livestock Research Institute. N. McCarthy, B. Swallow, M. Kirk, P. Hazell (Eds.).
32. Heffernan C., Rushton J. Restocking: a critical evaluation. Nomadic Peoples 2000, 4(1):110-124.
33. Hess K., Holechek J.L. Policy roots of land degradation in the arid region of the United States: an overview. Environ. Monit. Assess. 1995, 37(1-3):123-141.
34. Hirata M., Fujita H., Miyazaki A. Changes in grazing areas and feed resources in a dry area of north-eastern Syria. J. Arid Environ. 1998, 40(3):319-329.
35. Hobbs N.T., Galvin K.A., Stokes C.J., Lackett J.M., Ash A.J., Boone R.B., Reid R.S., Thornton P.K. Fragmentation of rangelands: implications for humans, animals, and landscapes. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2008, 18(4):776-785.
36. Horn B.E., Hart C.R., Paisley S.I. Management of rangeland livestock under drought. Ann. Arid Zone 2003, 41(1):1-24.
37. Illius A.W., O'Connor T.G. On the relevance of nonequilibrium concepts to arid and semiarid grazing systems. Ecol. Appl. 1999, 9(3):798-813.
38. Kreuer D. Land use negotiation in eastern Morocco. Nomadic Peoples 2011, 15(1):54-69.
39. Kuhn A., Heidecke C., Roth A., Goldbach H., Burkhardt J., Linstädter A., Kemmerling B., Gaiser T. Importance of resource management for livelihood security under climate change in southern Morocco. Impacts of Global Change on the Hydrological Cycle in West and Northwest Africa 2010, 566-591. Springer, Berlin. P. Speth, M. Christoph, B. Diekkrüger (Eds.).
40. Lazarev G. L'élevage pastoral dans les Hauts Plateaux de l'Oriental du Maroc: Les Notes d'analyse du CIHEAM, No. 37 available at:, (last accessed: 30.09.2014). http://portail2.reseau-concept.net/Upload/ciheam/fichiers/NAN37.pdf.
41. Le Houerou H.N. Restoration and rehabilitation of arid and semiarid Mediterranean ecosystems in North Africa and West Asia: a review. Arid Soil Res. Rehabil. 2000, 14(1):3-14.
42. Le Houérou H.N. Biogeography of the arid steppeland north of the Sahara. J. Arid Environ. 2001, 48:103-128.
43. Linstädter A., Baumann G. Abiotic and biotic recovery pathways of arid rangelands: lessons from the High Atlas Mountains, Morocco. Catena 2013, 103(0):3-15.
44. Linstädter A., Baumann G., Born K., Diekkrüger B., Fritzsche P., Kirscht H., Klose A. Land use and land cover in Southern Morocco: managing unpredictable resources and extreme events. Impacts of Global Change on the Hydrological Cycle in West and Northwest Africa 2010, 611-632. Springer, Berlin. P. Speth, M. Christoph, B. Diekkrüger (Eds.).
45. Linstädter A., Kemmerling B., Baumann G., Kirscht H. The importance of being reliable - local ecological knowledge and management of forage plants in a dryland pastoral system (Morocco). J. Arid Environ. 2013, 95:30-40.
46. Lorent H., Sonnenschein R., Tsiourlis G.M., Hostert P., Lambin E. Livestock subsidies and rangeland degradation in central Crete. Ecol. Soc. 2009, 14(2):41.
47. Mahdi M. Pastoralism and institutional change in the Oriental, Pastoral Morocco. Globalizing Scapes of Mobility and Insecurity 2007, 93-105. Dr. Ludwig Reichert Verlag, Wiesbaden.
48. Marshall N.A. Understanding social resilience to climate variability in primary enterprises and industries. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2010, 20(1):36-43.
49. Martin R., Müller B., Linstädter A., Frank K. How much climate change can pastoral livelihoods tolerate? Modelling rangeland use and evaluating risk. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2014, 24:183-192.
50. Martin R., Linstädter A., Frank K., Müller B. Livelihood security in face of drought - assessing the vulnerability of pastoral households. Environ. Model Softw. 2015, (in press).
51. Matthews R.B., Gilbert N.G., Roach A., Polhill J.G., Gotts N.M. Agent-based land-use models: a review of applications. Landsc. Ecol. 2007, 22(10):1447-1459.
52. McAllister R.R.J. Livestock mobility in arid and semi-arid Australia: escaping variability in space. Pastor. Res. Policy Pract. 2010, 1(1).
53. McGregor H.V., Dupont L., Stuut J.B., Kuhlmann H. Vegetation change, goats, and religion: a 2000-year history of land use in southern Morocco. Quat. Sci. Rev. 2009, 28(15-16):1434-1448.
54. Megersa B., Markemann A., Angassa A., Ogutu J.O., Piepho H.P., Zar te A.V. Impacts of climate change and variability on cattle production in southern Ethiopia: perceptions and empirical evidence. Agric. Syst. 2014, 130:23-34.
55. Müller B., Frank K., Wissel C. Relevance of rest periods in non-equilibrium rangeland systems - a modelling analysis. Agric. Syst. 2007, 92(1-3):295-317.
56. Müller B., Linstädter A., Frank K., Bollig M., Wissel C. Learning from local ecological knowledge: modeling the pastoral-nomadic range management of the Himba, Namibia. Ecol. Appl. 2007, 17(7):1857-1875.
57. Nardone A., Ronchi B., Lacetera N., Ranieri M.S., Bernabucci U. Effects of climate changes on animal production and sustainability of livestock systems. Livest. Sci. 2010, 130(1-3):57-69.
58. Niamir-Fuller M., Turner M.D. A review of recent literature on pastoralism and transhumance in Africa. Managing Mobility in African Rangelands: The Legitimization of Transhumance 1999, 18-46. Intermediate Technology/FAO. M. Niamir-Fuller (Ed.).
59. Nie Z.N., Zollinger R.P., Behrendt R. Impact of deferred grazing and fertilizer on herbage production, soil seed reserve and nutritive value of native pastures in steep hill country of southern Australia. Grass Forage Sci. 2015, 70(3):394-405.
60. Nordblom T.L., Shomo F. Food and Feed Prospects to 2020 in the West Asia/North Africa Region 1995, International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA).
61. Noy-Meir I. Stability of plant-herbivore models and possible applications to savanna. Ecology and Tropical Savannas 1982, 591-609. Springer, Berlin. B. Huntley, B.H. Walker (Eds.).
62. O'Connor T.G. Local extinction in perennial grasslands: a life-history approach. Am. Nat. 1991, 137(6):735-773.
63. Okayasu T., Okuro T., Jamsran U., Takeuchi K. An intrinsic mechanism for the co-existence of different survival strategies within mobile pastoralist communities. Agric. Syst. 2010, 103(4):180-186.
64. Patt A., Suarez P., Gwata C. Effects of seasonal climate forecasts and participatory workshops among subsistence farmers in Zimbabwe. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2005, 102:12623-12628.
65. Pelletier N., Tyedmers P. Forecasting potential global environmental costs of livestock production 2000-2050. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2010, 107(43):18371-18374.
66. Pica-Ciamarra U., Otte J., Martini C. Livestock sector policies and programmes in developing countries - a menu for practitioners 2010, FAO, Rome.
67. Porembski S., Finckh M., Orthmann B. Flora and vegetation. Impacts of Global Change on the Hydrological Cycle in West and Northwest Africa 2010, 66-77. Springer, Berlin. P. Speth, M. Christoph, B. Diekkrüger (Eds.).
68. Quaas M.F., Baumgärtner S. Optimal grazing management rules in semi-arid rangelands with uncertain rainfall. Nat. Resour. Model. 2012, 25(2):364-387.
69. Reynolds C., Crompton L., Mills J. Livestock and climate change impacts in the developing world. Outlook Agric. 2010, 39(4):245-248.
70. Richardson F.D., Hahn B.D., Hoffman M.T. On the dynamics of grazing systems in the semi-arid succulent Karoo: the relevance of equilibrium and non-equilibrium concepts to the sustainability of semi-arid pastoral systems. Ecol. Model. 2005, 187(4):491-512.
71. Rössler M., Kirscht H., Rademacher C., Platt S., Kemmerling B., Linstädter A. Migration and resource management in the Drâa Valley, Southern Morocco. Impacts of Global Change on the Hydrological Cycle in West and Northwest Africa 2010, 634-646. Springer, Berlin. P. Speth, B. Diekkrüger, M. Christoph (Eds.).
72. Rota A., Sperandini S. Emergency Livestock Interventions in Crisis and Post-crisis Situations 2009, IFAD, (avialable at: http://www.ifad.org/lrkm/factsheet/emergency.pdf, last accessed: 30.9.2014).
73. Rounsevell M.D.A., Pedroli B., Erb K.-H., Gramberger M., Busck A.G., Haberl H., Kristensen S., Kuemmerle T., Lavorel S., Lindner M., Lotze-Campen H., Metzger M.J., Murray-Rust D., Popp A., Pérez-Soba M., Reenberg A., Vadineanu A., Verburg P.H., Wolfslehner B. Challenges for land system science. Land Use Policy 2012, 29(4):899-910.
74. Rufino M.C., Thornton P.K., Ng'ang'a S.K., Mutie I., Jones P.G., van Wijk M.T., Herrero M. Transitions in agro-pastoralist systems of East Africa: impacts on food security and poverty. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2013, 179:215-230.
75. Ruppert J.C., Holm A.M., Miehe S., Muldavin E., Snyman H.A., Wesche K., Linstädter A. Meta-analysis of rain-use efficiency confirms indicative value for degradation and supports non-linear response along precipitation gradients in drylands. J. Veg. Sci. 2012, 23:1035-1050.
76. Ruppert J.C., Harmoney K., Henkin Z., Snyman H.A., Sternberg M., Willms W., Linstädter A. Quantifying drylands' drought resistance and recovery: the importance of drought intensity, dominant life history and grazing regime. Glob. Chang. Biol. 2015, 21(3):1258-1270.
77. Saïdi S., Gintzburger G. A spatial desertification indicator for Mediterranean arid rangelands: a case study in Algeria. Rangel. J. 2013, 35(1):47-62.
78. Schlüter M., McAllister R.R.J., Arlinghaus R., Bunnefeld N., Eisenack K., Hölker F., Milner-Gulland E.J., Müller B., Nicholson E., Quaas M., Stöven M. New horizons for managing the environment: a review of coupled social-ecological systems modeling. Nat. Resour. Model. 2012, 25(1):219-272.
79. Schlüter M., Müller B., Frank K. How to Use Models to Improve Analysis and Governance of Social-Ecological Systems - The Reference Frame MORE (April 05, 2013) Available at SSRN:. http://ssrn.com/abstract=2037723.
80. Schulze J. Risk Measures and Decision Criteria for the Management of Natural Resources Under Uncertainty - Application to an Ecological-Economic Grazing Model 2011, (Diploma Thesis), University of Greifswald, Germany.
81. Seppelt R., Müller F., Schröder B., Volk M. Challenges of simulating complex environmental systems at the landscape scale: a controversial dialogue between two cups of espresso. Ecol. Model. 2009, 220(24):3481-3489.
82. Sietz D., Lüdeke M.K.B., Walther C. Categorisation of typical vulnerability patterns in global drylands. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2011, 21(2):431-440.
83. Simon H.A. Theories of decision-making in economics and behavioral science. Am. Econ. Rev. 1959, 49(3):253-283.
84. Steinfeld H., Gerber P., Wassenaar T., Castel V., Rosales M. Livestock's Long Shadow: Environmental Issues and Options 2006, Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
85. Steinschulte H. The Recovery of Pasture Plants at Four Altitudinal Levels Along the High Atlas Mountains, Morocco (Ms Thesis) 2011, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn, Germany.
86. Teague W.R., Kreuter U.P., Grant W.E., Diaz-Solis H., Kothmann M.M. Economic implications of maintaining rangeland ecosystem health in a semi-arid savanna. Ecol. Econ. 2009, 68(5):1417-1429.
87. Tessema W., Ingenbleek P.M., Trijp H.M. Pastoralism, sustainability, and marketing. A review. Agron. Sustain. Dev. 2014, 34(1):75-92.
88. Thornton P.K. Livestock production: recent trends, future prospects. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 2010, 365(1554):2853-2867.
89. Thornton P.K., van de Steeg J., Notenbaert A., Herrero M. The impacts of climate change on livestock and livestock systems in developing countries: a review of what we know and what we need to know. Agric. Syst. 2009, 101(3):113-127.
90. van de Koppel J., Rietkerk M. Herbivore regulation and irreversible vegetation change in semi-arid grazing systems. Oikos 2000, 90(2):253-260.
91. Vang Rasmussen L., Rasmussen K., Reenberg A., Proud S. A system dynamics approach to land use changes in agro-pastoral systems on the desert margins of Sahel. Agric. Syst. 2012, 107:56-64.
92. Vetter S., Cousins B., Hoffman T. Rangelands at equilibrium and non-equilibrium: recent developments in the debate. J. Arid Environ. 2005, 62(2):321-341.
93. Vetter S., Goqwana W.M., Bond W.J., Trollope W.W. Effects of land tenure, geology and topography on vegetation and soils of two grassland types in South Africa. Afr. J. Range Forage Sci. 2006, 23:13-27.
94. von Wehrden H., Hanspach J., Kaczensky P., Fischer J., Wesche K. Global assessment of the non-equilibrium concept in rangelands. Ecol. Appl. 2012, 22(2):393-399.