Population Risk Prediction Models for Incident Heart Failure: A Systematic Review

Circulation: Heart Failure

Volumn 8, Issue 3, 2015, Pages 438-447

  Echouffo Tcheugui, Justin B ^a   Greene, Stephen J ^b   Papadimitriou, Lampros ^c   Zannad, Faiez ^d   Yancy, Clyde W ^b   Gheorghiade, Mihai ^b   Butler, Javed ^c  

^a EMORY UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c STONY BROOK UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL OF NANCY   (France)

Author keywords

calibration; discrimination; heart failure; prevention

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; EMBASE; EXTERNAL VALIDITY; HEART FAILURE; HUMAN; INFORMATION RETRIEVAL; MEDLINE; OUTCOME ASSESSMENT; POPULATION RISK; PRACTICE GUIDELINE; PRIORITY JOURNAL; QUALITY CONTROL; RISK ASSESSMENT; DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM; HEART DISEASES; INCIDENCE; PREDICTIVE VALUE; PREVALENCE; PROGNOSIS; RISK FACTOR; TIME;

DECISION SUPPORT TECHNIQUES; HEART DISEASES; HUMANS; INCIDENCE; PREDICTIVE VALUE OF TESTS; PREVALENCE; PROGNOSIS; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK FACTORS; TIME FACTORS;

EID: 84938514458     PISSN: 19413289     EISSN: 19413297     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1161/CIRCHEARTFAILURE.114.001896     Document Type: Article

References (42)

1. Go AS, Mozaffarian D, Roger VL, Benjamin EJ, Berry JD, Blaha MJ, Dai S, Ford ES, Fox CS, Franco S, Fullerton HJ, Gillespie C, Hailpern SM, Heit JA, Howard VJ, Huffman MD, Judd SE, Kissela BM, Kittner SJ, Lackland DT, Lichtman JH, Lisabeth LD, Mackey RH, Magid DJ, Marcus GM, Marelli A, Matchar DB, McGuire DK, Mohler ER III, Moy CS, Mussolino ME, Neumar RW, Nichol G, Pandey DK, Paynter NP, Reeves MJ, Sorlie PD, Stein J, Towfighi A, Turan TN, Virani SS, Wong ND, Woo D, Turner MB; American Heart Association Statistics Committee and Stroke Statistics Subcommittee. Heart disease and stroke statistics-2014 update: a report from the American Heart Association. Circulation. 2014;129:e28-e292. doi: 10.1161/01. cir.0000441139.02102.80.
2. Heidenreich PA, Albert NM, Allen LA, Bluemke DA, Butler J, Fonarow GC, Ikonomidis JS, Khavjou O, Konstam MA, Maddox TM, Nichol G, Pham M, Pinã IL, Trogdon JG; American Heart Association Advocacy Coordinating Committee; Council on Arteriosclerosis, Thrombosis and Vascular Biology; Council on Cardiovascular Radiology and Intervention; Council on Clinical Cardiology; Council on Epidemiology and Prevention; Stroke Council. Forecasting the impact of heart failure in the United States: a policy statement from the American Heart Association. Circ Heart Fail. 2013;6:606-619. doi: 10.1161/HHF.0b013e318291329a.
3. Levy D, Kenchaiah S, Larson MG, Benjamin EJ, Kupka MJ, Ho KK, Murabito JM, Vasan RS. Long-term trends in the incidence of and survival with heart failure. N Engl J Med. 2002;347:1397-1402. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa020265.
4. Lloyd-Jones DM. Cardiovascular risk prediction: basic concepts, current status, and future directions. Circulation. 2010;121:1768-1777. doi: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.109.849166.
5. Hayden JA, van der Windt DA, Cartwright JL, Côté P, Bombardier C. Assessing bias in studies of prognostic factors. Ann Intern Med. 2013;158:280-286. doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-158-4-201302190-00009.
6. Reilly BM, Evans AT. Translating clinical research into clinical practice: impact of using prediction rules to make decisions. Ann Intern Med. 2006;144:201-209.
7. Yancy CW, Jessup M, Bozkurt B, Butler J, Casey DE Jr, Drazner MH, Fonarow GC, Geraci SA, Horwich T, Januzzi JL, Johnson MR, Kasper EK, Levy WC, Masoudi FA, McBride PE, McMurray JJ, Mitchell JE, Peterson PN, Riegel B, Sam F, Stevenson LW, Tang WH, Tsai EJ, Wilkoff BL. 2013 ACCF/AHA guideline for the management of heart failure: a report of the American College of Cardiology Foundation/American Heart Association Task Force on practice guidelines. Circulation. 2013;128:e240-e327. doi: 10.1161/CIR.0b013e31829e8807.
8. Lindenfeld J, Albert NM, Boehmer JP, Collins SP, Ezekowitz JA, Givertz MM, Katz SD, Klapholz M, Moser DK, Rogers JG, Starling RC, Stevenson WG, Tang WH, Teerlink JR, Walsh MN. HFSA 2010 Comprehensive Heart Failure Practice Guideline. J Card Fail. 2010;16:e1-194.
9. McMurray JJ, Adamopoulos S, Anker SD, Auricchio A, Bohm M, Dickstein K, Falk V, Filippatos G, Fonseca C, Gomez-Sanchez MA, Jaarsma T, Kober L, Lip GY, Maggioni AP, Parkhomenko A, Pieske BM, Popescu BA, Ronnevik PK, Rutten FH, Schwitter J, Seferovic P, Stepinska J, Trindade PT, Voors AA, Zannad F, Zeiher A, Task Force for the D, Treatment of A, Chronic Heart Failure of the European Society of C, Bax JJ, Baumgartner H, Ceconi C, Dean V, Deaton C, Fagard R, Funck-Brentano C, Hasdai D, Hoes A, Kirchhof P, Knuuti J, Kolh P, McDonagh T, Moulin C, Popescu BA, Reiner Z, Sechtem U, Sirnes PA, Tendera M, Torbicki A, Vahanian A, Windecker S, McDonagh T, Sechtem U, Bonet LA, Avraamides P, Ben Lamin HA, Brignole M, Coca A, Cowburn P, Dargie H, Elliott P, Flachskampf FA, Guida GF, Hardman S, Iung B, Merkely B, Mueller C, Nanas JN, Nielsen OW, Orn S, Parissis JT, Ponikowski P. ESC guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of acute and chronic heart failure 2012: The Task Force for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Acute and Chronic Heart Failure 2012 of the European Society of Cardiology. Developed in collaboration with the Heart Failure Association (HFA) of the ESC. Eur J Heart Fail. 2012;14:803-869. doi: 10.1093/eurjhf/hfs105.
10. Kannel WB, D'Agostino RB, Silbershatz H, Belanger AJ, Wilson PW, Levy D. Profile for estimating risk of heart failure. Arch Intern Med. 1999;159:1197-1204.
11. Butler J, Kalogeropoulos A, Georgiopoulou V, Belue R, Rodondi N, Garcia M, Bauer DC, Satterfield S, Smith AL, Vaccarino V, Newman AB, Harris TB, Wilson PW, Kritchevsky SB; Health ABC Study. Incident heart failure prediction in the elderly: the health ABC heart failure score. Circ Heart Fail. 2008;1:125-133. doi: 10.1161/CIRCHEARTFAILURE.108.768457.
12. Goyal A, Norton CR, Thomas TN, Davis RL, Butler J, Ashok V, Zhao L, Vaccarino V, Wilson PW. Predictors of incident heart failure in a large insured population: a one million person-year follow-up study. Circ Heart Fail. 2010;3:698-705. doi: 10.1161/CIRCHEARTFAILURE.110.938175.
13. Velagaleti RS, Gona P, Larson MG, Wang TJ, Levy D, Benjamin EJ, Selhub J, Jacques PF, Meigs JB, Tofler GH, Vasan RS. Multimarker approach for the prediction of heart failure incidence in the community. Circulation. 2010;122:1700-1706. doi: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.109.929661.
14. deFilippi CR, de Lemos JA, Christenson RH, Gottdiener JS, Kop WJ, Zhan M, Seliger SL. Association of serial measures of cardiac troponin T using a sensitive assay with incident heart failure and cardiovascular mortality in older adults. JAMA. 2010;304:2494-2502. doi: 10.1001/jama.2010.1708.
15. Smith JG, Newton-Cheh C, Almgren P, Struck J, Morgenthaler NG, Bergmann A, Platonov PG, Hedblad B, Engström G, Wang TJ, Melander O. Assessment of conventional cardiovascular risk factors and multiple biomarkers for the prediction of incident heart failure and atrial fibrillation. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2010;56:1712-1719. doi: 10.1016/j. jacc.2010.05.049.
16. Kalogeropoulos A, Georgiopoulou V, Psaty BM, Rodondi N, Smith AL, Harrison DG, Liu Y, Hoffmann U, Bauer DC, Newman AB, Kritchevsky SB, Harris TB, Butler J; Health ABC Study Investigators. Inflammatory markers and incident heart failure risk in older adults: the Health ABC (Health, Aging, and Body Composition) study. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2010;55:2129-2137. doi: 10.1016/j.jacc.2009.12.045.
17. Pfister R, Cairns R, Erdmann E, Schneider CA. A clinical risk score for heart failure in patients with type 2 diabetes and macrovascular disease: an analysis of the PROactive study. Int J Cardiol. 2013;162:112-116. doi: 10.1016/j.ijcard.2011.05.056.
18. Kalogeropoulos AP, Georgiopoulou VV, deFilippi CR, Gottdiener JS, Butler J. Echocardiography, natriuretic peptides, and risk for incident heart failure in older adults: the Cardiovascular Health Study. J Am Coll Cardiol Img. 2012;5:131-140. doi: 10.1016/j.jcmg.2011.11.011.
19. Wang TJ, Wollert KC, Larson MG, Coglianese E, McCabe EL, Cheng S, Ho JE, Fradley MG, Ghorbani A, Xanthakis V, Kempf T, Benjamin EJ, Levy D, Vasan RS, Januzzi JL. Prognostic utility of novel biomarkers of cardiovascular stress: the Framingham Heart Study. Circulation. 2012;126:1596-1604. doi: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.112.129437.
20. Agarwal SK, Chambless LE, Ballantyne CM, Astor B, Bertoni AG, Chang PP, Folsom AR, He M, Hoogeveen RC, Ni H, Quibrera PM, Rosamond WD, Russell SD, Shahar E, Heiss G. Prediction of incident heart failure in general practice: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study. Circ Heart Fail. 2012;5:422-429. doi: 10.1161/CIRCHEARTFAILURE.111.964841.
21. Schnabel RB, Rienstra M, Sullivan LM, Sun JX, Moser CB, Levy D, Pencina MJ, Fontes JD, Magnani JW, McManus DD, Lubitz SA, Tadros TM, Wang TJ, Ellinor PT, Vasan RS, Benjamin EJ. Risk assessment for incident heart failure in individuals with atrial fibrillation. Eur J Heart Fail. 2013;15:843-849. doi: 10.1093/eurjhf/hft041.
22. Wong YW, Thomas L, Sun JL, McMurray JJ, Krum H, Hernandez AF, Rutten GE, Leiter LA, Standl E, Haffner SM, Mazzone T, Martinez FA, Tognoni G, Giles T, Califf RM. Predictors of incident heart failure hospitalizations among patients with impaired glucose tolerance: insight from the Nateglinide And Valsartan in Impaired Glucose Tolerance Outcomes Research study. Circ Heart Fail. 2013;6:203-210. doi: 10.1161/CIRCHEARTFAILURE.112.000086.
23. Wannamethee SG, Welsh P, Whincup PH, Lennon L, Papacosta O, Sattar N. N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide but not copeptin improves prediction of heart failure over other routine clinical risk parameters in older men with and without cardiovascular disease: population-based study. Eur J Heart Fail. 2014;16:25-32. doi: 10.1093/eurjhf/hft124.
24. Kalogeropoulos A, Psaty BM, Vasan RS, Georgiopoulou V, Smith AL, Smith NL, Kritchevsky SB, Wilson PW, Newman AB, Harris TB, Butler J; Cardiovascular Health Study. Validation of the health ABC heart failure model for incident heart failure risk prediction: the Cardiovascular Health Study. Circ Heart Fail. 2010;3:495-502. doi: 10.1161/CIRCHEARTFAILURE.109.904300.
25. deFilippi CR, Christenson RH, Kop WJ, Gottdiener JS, Zhan M, Seliger SL. Left ventricular ejection fraction assessment in older adults: an adjunct to natriuretic peptide testing to identify risk of new-onset heart failure and cardiovascular death J Am Coll Cardiol. 2011;58:1497-1506. doi: 10.1016/j.jacc.2011.06.042.
26. Nambi V, Liu X, Chambless LE, de Lemos JA, Virani SS, Agarwal S, Boerwinkle E, Hoogeveen RC, Aguilar D, Astor BC, Srinivas PR, Deswal A, Mosley TH, Coresh J, Folsom AR, Heiss G, Ballantyne CM. Troponin T and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide: a biomarker approach to predict heart failure risk-the atherosclerosis risk in communities study. Clin Chem. 2013;59:1802-1810. doi: 10.1373/clinchem.2013.203638.
27. Choi EY, Bahrami H, Wu CO, Greenland P, Cushman M, Daniels LB, Almeida AL, Yoneyama K, Opdahl A, Jain A, Criqui MH, Siscovick D, Darwin C, Maisel A, Bluemke DA, Lima JA. N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, left ventricular mass, and incident heart failure: Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Circ Heart Fail. 2012;5:727-734. doi: 10.1161/CIRCHEARTFAILURE.112.968701.
28. Xanthakis V, Larson MG, Wollert KC, Aragam J, Cheng S, Ho J, Coglianese E, Levy D, Colucci WS, Michael Felker G, Benjamin EJ, Januzzi JL, Wang TJ, Vasan RS. Association of novel biomarkers of cardiovascular stress with left ventricular hypertrophy and dysfunction: implications for screening. J Am Heart Assoc. 2013;2:e000399. doi: 10.1161/JAHA.113.000399.
29. Brouwers FP, van Gilst WH, Damman K, van den Berg MP, Gansevoort RT, Bakker SJ, Hillege HL, van Veldhuisen DJ, van der Harst P, de Boer RA. Clinical risk stratification optimizes value of biomarkers to predict new-onset heart failure in a community-based cohort. Circ Heart Fail. 2014;7:723-731. doi: 10.1161/CIRCHEARTFAILURE.114.001185.
30. Gupta S, Berry JD, Ayers CR, Matulevicius SA, Peshock RM, Patel PC, Markham DW, Drazner MH. Association of Health Aging and Body Composition (ABC) Heart Failure score with cardiac structural and functional abnormalities in young individuals. Am Heart J. 2010;159:817-824. doi: 10.1016/j.ahj.2010.02.001.
31. Iacovoni A, De Maria R, Gavazzi A, Grosu A, Fontana A, Guideri S, Gori M, Ferrari P, Filippi A, Rutili MR, Donzelli L, Parolini M, Senni M. Natriuretic peptides and the Framingham risk score for screening of asymptomatic left ventricular systolic dysfunction in high-risk patients in primary care. The DAVID-BERG study. Int J Cardiol. 2013;168:5093-5095. doi: 10.1016/j.ijcard.2013.07.260.
32. Djoussé L, Driver JA, Gaziano JM. Relation between modifiable lifestyle factors and lifetime risk of heart failure. JAMA. 2009;302:394-400. doi: 10.1001/jama.2009.1062.
33. Daniels LB, Maisel AS. Natriuretic peptides. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2007;50:2357-2368. doi: 10.1016/j.jacc.2007.09.021.
34. Vasan RS, Benjamin EJ, Larson MG, Leip EP, Wang TJ, Wilson PW, Levy D. Plasma natriuretic peptides for community screening for left ventricular hypertrophy and systolic dysfunction: the Framingham Heart Study. JAMA. 2002;288:1252-1259.
35. de Lemos JA, McGuire DK, Khera A, Das SR, Murphy SA, Omland T, Drazner MH. Screening the population for left ventricular hypertrophy and left ventricular systolic dysfunction using natriuretic peptides: results from the Dallas Heart Study. Am Heart J. 2009;157:746-753.e2. doi: 10.1016/j.ahj.2008.12.017.
36. Eichler K, Zoller M, Tschudi P, Steurer J. Barriers to apply cardiovascular prediction rules in primary care: a postal survey. BMC Fam Pract. 2007;8:1. doi: 10.1186/1471-2296-8-1.
37. Rocchiccioli JP, McMurray JJ, Dominiczak AF. Biomarkers in heart failure: a clinical review. Heart Fail Rev. 2010;15:251-273. doi: 10.1007/s10741-008-9123-9.
38. van Kimmenade RR, Januzzi JL Jr. Emerging biomarkers in heart failure. Clin Chem. 2012;58:127-138. doi: 10.1373/clinchem.2011.165720.
39. Zannad F, Stough WG, Pitt B, Cleland JG, Adams KF, Geller NL, Torp-Pedersen C, Kirwan BA, Follath F. Heart failure as an endpoint in heart failure and non-heart failure cardiovascular clinical trials: the need for a consensus definition. Eur Heart J. 2008;29:413-421. doi: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehm603.
40. Rosamond WD, Chang PP, Baggett C, Johnson A, Bertoni AG, Shahar E, Deswal A, Heiss G, Chambless LE. Classification of heart failure in the atherosclerosis risk in communities (ARIC) study: a comparison of diagnostic criteria. Circ Heart Fail. 2012;5:152-159. doi: 10.1161/CIRCHEARTFAILURE.111.963199.
41. Ho JE, Gona P, Pencina MJ, Tu JV, Austin PC, Vasan RS, Kannel WB, D'Agostino RB, Lee DS, Levy D. Discriminating clinical features of heart failure with preserved vs. reduced ejection fraction in the community. Eur Heart J. 2012;33:1734-1741. doi: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehs070.
42. Ho JE, Lyass A, Lee DS, Vasan RS, Kannel WB, Larson MG, Levy D. Predictors of new-onset heart failure: differences in preserved versus reduced ejection fraction. Circ Heart Fail. 2013;6:279-286. doi: 10.1161/CIRCHEARTFAILURE.112.972828.