Cardiovascular risk prediction: Basic concepts, current status, and future directions

Circulation

Volumn 121, Issue 15, 2010, Pages 1768-1777

  Lloyd Jones, Donald M ^a  

^a NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATP III RISK ESTIMATOR; CARDIOVASCULAR RISK; CHOLESTEROL BLOOD LEVEL; DISEASE CLASSIFICATION; EUROPEAN SYSTEMATIC CORONARY RISK EVALUATION ALGORITHM; FRAMINGHAM RISK SCORE; HUMAN; HYPERTENSION; PREDICTION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PROSPECTIVE CARDIOVASCULAR MUNSTER MODEL; REVIEW; REYNOLDS RISK SCORE; RISK ASSESSMENT; SCORING SYSTEM;

ALGORITHMS; CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES; HUMANS; MODELS, STATISTICAL; PRACTICE GUIDELINES AS TOPIC; PREDICTIVE VALUE OF TESTS; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK FACTORS;

EID: 77951487868     PISSN: 00097322     EISSN: 15244539     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.109.849166     Document Type: Review

References (71)

1. Third Report of the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) Expert Panel on Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Cholesterol in Adults (Adult Treatment Panel III) Final Report. Circulation 2002 106 3143-3421.
2. McPherson R, Frohlich J, Fodor G, Genest J. Canadian Cardiovascular Society position statement: recommendations for the diagnosis and treatment of dyslipidemia and prevention of cardiovascular disease. Can J Cardiol. 2006;22:913-927.
3. Mosca L, Banka CL, Benjamin EJ, Berra K, Bushnell C, Dolor RJ, Ganiats TG, Gomes AS, Gornik HL, Gracia C, Gulati M, Haan CK, Judelson DR, Keenan N, Kelepouris E, Michos ED, Newby LK, Oparil S, Ouyang P, Oz MC, Petitti D, Pinn VW, Redberg RF, Scott R, Sherif K, Smith SC Jr, Sopko G, Steinhorn RH, Stone NJ, Taubert KA, Todd BA, Urbina E, Wenger NK. Evidence-based guidelines for cardiovascular disease prevention in women: 2007 update. Circulation. 2007;115: 1481-1501. (Pubitemid 46648385)
4. Wood D, De Backer G, Faergeman O, Graham I, Mancia G, Pyorala K. Prevention of coronary heart disease in clinical practice: recommendations of the Second Joint Task Force of European and Other Societies on Coronary Prevention. Atherosclerosis. 1998;140:199-270. (Pubitemid 28535317)
5. Wood D, De Backer G, Faergeman O, Graham I, Mancia G, Pyorala K. Prevention of coronary heart disease in clinical practice: summary of recommendations of the Second Joint Task Force of European and Other Societies on Coronary Prevention. J Hypertens. 1998;16:1407-1414. (Pubitemid 28470487)
6. Matching the intensity of risk factor management with the hazard for coronary disease events: Bethesda Conference 27. J Am Coll Cardiol. 1996;27:957-1047.
7. Report of the National Cholesterol Education Program Expert Panel on Detection, Evaluation and Treatment of High Blood Cholesterol in Adults. Arch Intern Med 1988 148 36-69.
8. The 1980 report of the Joint National Committee on Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure. Arch Intern Med 1980 140 1280-1285.
9. The 1984 report of the Joint National Committee on Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure. Arch Intern Med 1984 144 1045-1057.
10. The 1988 report of the Joint National Committee on Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure. Arch Intern Med 1988 148 1023-1038.
11. Jackson R. Guidelines on preventing cardiovascular disease in clinical practice: absolute risk rules-but raises the question of population screening. BMJ. 2000;320:659-661.
12. Rose G. Environmental health: problems and prospects. J Roy Coll Phys Lond. 1991;25:48-52.
13. Vine DL, Hastings GE. Ischaemic heart disease and cholesterol: absolute risk more informative than relative risk. BMJ. 1994;308:1040-1041.
14. De Backer G, Ambrosioni E, Borch-Johnsen K, Brotons C, Cifkova R, Dallongeville J, Ebrahim S, Faergeman O, Graham I, Mancia G, Cats VM, Orth-Gomer K, Perk J, Pyorala K, Rodicio JL, Sans S, Sansoy V, Sechtem U, Silber S, Thomsen T, Wood D. European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice: Third Joint Task Force of European and Other Societies on Cardiovascular Disease Prevention in Clinical Practice. Atherosclerosis. 2004;173:381-391.
15. Jackson R. Updated New Zealand cardiovascular disease risk-benefit prediction guide. BMJ. 2000;320:709-710.
16. Wilson PW, D'Agostino RB, Levy D, Belanger AM, Silbershatz H, Kannel WB. Prediction of coronary heart disease using risk factor categories. Circulation. 1998;97:1837-1847.
17. D'Agostino RB, Grundy SM, Sullivan LM, Wilson P, for the CHD Risk Prediction Group. Validation of the Framingham coronary heart disease prediction scores: results of a multiple ethnic groups investigation. JAMA. 2001;286:180-187.
18. Conroy RM, Pyorala K, Fitzgerald AP, Sans S, Menotti A, De Backer G, De Bacquer D, Ducimetiere P, Jousilahti P, Keil U, Njolstad I, Oganov RG, Thomsen T, Tunstall-Pedoe H, Tverdal A, Wedel H, Whincup P, Wilhelmsen L, Graham IM. Estimation of ten-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Europe: the SCORE project. Eur Heart J. 2003;24: 987-1003.
19. Assmann G, Cullen P, Schulte H. Simple scoring scheme for calculating the risk of acute coronary events based on the 10-year follow-up of the Prospective Cardiovascular Munster (PROCAM) study. Circulation. 2002;105:310-315.
20. Hippisley-Cox J, Coupland C, Vinogradova Y, Robson J, May M, Brindle P. Derivation and validation of QRISK, a new cardiovascular disease risk score for the United Kingdom: prospective open cohort study. BMJ. 2007;335:136-147.
21. Ridker PM, Buring JE, Rifai N, Cook NR. Development and validation of improved algorithms for the assessment of global cardiovascular risk in women: the Reynolds risk score. JAMA. 2007;297:611-619.
22. Ridker PM, Paynter NP, Rifai N, Gaziano JM, Cook NR. C-reactive protein and parental history improve global cardiovascular risk prediction: the Reynolds risk score for men. Circulation. 2008;118: 2243-2251.
23. D'Agostino RB Sr, Vasan RS, Pencina MJ, Wolf PA, Cobain M, Massaro JM, Kannel WB. General cardiovascular risk profile for use in primary care: the Framingham Heart Study. Circulation. 2008;117:743-753.
24. Grundy SM, Cleeman JI, Merz CNB, Brewer HB Jr, Clark LT, Hun-ninghake DB, Pasternak RC, Smith SC Jr, Stone NJ, for the Coordinating Committee of the National Cholesterol Education Program. Implications of recent clinical trials for the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines. Circulation. 2004;110:227-239.
25. Lloyd-Jones DM, Leip EP, Larson MG, D'Agostino RB, Beiser A, Wilson PW, Wolf PA, Levy D. Prediction of lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease by risk factor burden at 50 years of age. Circulation. 2006;113:791-798.
26. Hosmer DW, Lemeshow S. Applied Logistic Regression. 2nd ed. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons; 2000.
27. Hilden J. The area under the ROC curve and its competitors. Med Decis Making. 1991;11:95-101.
28. Cook NR. Use and misuse of the receiver operating characteristic curve in risk prediction. Circulation. 2007;115:928-935.
29. Pepe MS, Janes H, Longton G, Leisenring W, Newcomb P. Limitations of the odds ratio in gauging the performance of a diagnostic, prognostic, or screening marker. Am J Epidemiol. 2004;159:882-890.
30. Pencina MJ, D'Agostino RB Sr, D'Agostino RB Jr, Vasan RS. Evaluating the added predictive ability of a new marker: from area under the ROC curve to reclassification and beyond. Stat Med. 2008;27:157-172.
31. Pepe MS, Feng Z, Gu JW. Comments on "Evaluating the added predictive ability of a new marker: from area under the ROC curve to reclassifi-cation and beyond" by M.J. Pencina et al. Stat Med. 2008;27:207-212.
32. Melander O, Newton-Cheh C, Almgren P, Hedblad B, Berglund G, Engstrom G, Persson M, Smith JG, Magnusson M, Christensson A, Struck J, Morgenthaler NG, Bergmann A, Pencina MJ, Wang TJ. Novel and conventional biomarkers for prediction of incident cardiovascular events in the community. JAMA. 2009;302:49-57.
33. Hlatky MA, Greenland P, Arnett DK, Ballantyne CM, Criqui MH, Elkind MSV, Go AS, Harrell FE Jr, Hong Y, Howard BV, Howard VJ, Hsue PY, Kramer CM, McConnell JP, Normand S-L, O'Donnell CJ, Smith SC Jr, Wilson PWF. Criteria for evaluation of novel markers of cardiovascular risk: a scientific statement From the American Heart Association. Circulation. 2009;119:2408-2416.
34. Ridker PM, Rifai N, Rose L, Buring JE, Cook NR. Comparison of C-reactive protein and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels in the prediction of first cardiovascular events. N Engl J Med. 2002;347: 1557-1565.
35. Rutter MK, Meigs JB, Sullivan LM, D'Agostino RB Sr, Wilson PWF. C-reactive protein, the metabolic syndrome, and prediction of cardiovascular events in the Framingham Offspring Study. Circulation. 2004;110: 380-385.
36. van der Meer IM, de Maat MPM, Kiliaan AJ, van der Kuip DAM, Hofman A, Witteman JCM. The value of C-reactive protein in cardiovascular risk prediction. Arch Intern Med. 2003;163:1323-1328.
37. Wilson PWF, Nam B-H, Pencina M, D'Agostino RB Sr, Benjamin EJ, O'Donnell CJ. C-Reactive protein and risk of cardiovascular disease in men and women from the Framingham Heart Study. Arch Intern Med. 2005;165:2473-2478.
38. Detrano R, Guerci AD, Carr JJ, Bild DE, Burke G, Folsom AR, Liu K, Shea S, Szklo M, Bluemke DA, O'Leary DH, Tracy R, Watson K, Wong ND, Kronmal RA. Coronary calcium as a predictor of coronary events in four racial or ethnic groups. N Engl J Med. 2008;358:1336-1345.
39. Liu J, Hong Y, D'Agostino RB Sr, Wu Z, Wang W, Sun J, Wilson PWF, Kannel WB, Zhao D. Predictive value for the Chinese population of the Framingham CHD risk assessment tool compared with the Chinese Multi-Provincial Cohort Study. JAMA. 2004;291:2591-2599.
40. Lloyd-Jones DM, Liu K, Tian L, Greenland P. Narrative review: assessment of C-reactive protein in risk prediction for cardiovascular disease. Ann Intern Med. 2006; 145: 35-42.
41. Lloyd-Jones DM, Nam B-H, D'Agostino RB Sr, Levy D, Murabito JM, Wang TJ, Wilson PWF, O'Donnell CJ. Parental cardiovascular disease as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease in middle-aged adults: a prospective study of parents and offspring. JAMA. 2004;291:2204-2211.
42. Folsom AR, Chambless LE, Ballantyne CM, Coresh J, Heiss G, Wu KK, Boerwinkle E, Mosley TH Jr, Sorlie P, Diao G, Sharrett AR. An assessment of incremental coronary risk prediction using c-reactive protein and other novel risk markers: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. Arch Intern Med. 2006;166:1368-1373.
43. Shlipak MG, Fried LF, Cushman M, Manolio TA, Peterson D, Stehman-Breen C, Bleyer A, Newman A, Siscovick D, Psaty B. Cardiovascular mortality risk in chronic kidney disease: comparison of traditional and novel risk factors. JAMA. 2005;293:1737-1745.
44. Wang TJ, Gona P, Larson MG, Tofler GH, Levy D, Newton-Cheh C, Jacques PF, Rifai N, Selhub J, Robins SJ, Benjamin EJ, D'Agostino RB, Vasan RS. Multiple biomarkers for the prediction of first major cardiovascular events and death. N Engl J Med. 2006;355:2631-2639.
45. Zethelius B, Berglund L, Sundstrom J, Ingelsson E, Basu S, Larsson A, Venge P, Arnlov J. Use of multiple biomarkers to improve the prediction of death from cardiovascular causes. N Engl J Med. 2008;358:2107-2116
46. Heart Protection Study Collaborative Group. Statin cost-effectiveness in the United States for people at different vascular risk levels. Circ Car-diovasc Qual Outcomes. 2009;2:65-72.
47. Cost-effectiveness of simvastatin in people at different levels of vascular disease risk: economic analysis of a randomised trial in 20536 individuals. Lancet. 2005;365:1779-1785.
48. Grover SA, Lowensteyn I, Esrey KL, Steinert Y, Joseph L, Abraha-mowicz M. Do doctors accurately assess coronary risk in their patients? Preliminary results of the Coronary Health Assessment Study. BMJ. 1995;310:975-978.
49. Montgomery AA, Fahey T, MacKintosh C, Sharp DJ, Peters TJ. Estimation of cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients in primary care. Br J Gen Pract. 2000;50:127-128.
50. Cavanaugh-Hussey MW, Berry JD, Lloyd-Jones DM. Who exceeds ATP-III risk thresholds? Systematic examination of the effect of varying age and risk factor levels in the ATP-III risk assessment tool. Prev Med. 2008;47:619-623.
51. Marma AK, Lloyd-Jones DM. Systematic examination of the updated Framingham Heart Study general cardiovascular risk profile. Circulation. 2009;120:384-390.
52. Lloyd-Jones DM, Wilson PWF, Larson MG, Beiser A, Leip EP, D'Agostino RB, Levy D. Framingham risk score and prediction of lifetime risk for coronary heart disease. Am J Cardiol. 2004;94:20-24. (Pubitemid 38813447)
53. Naghavi M, Falk E, Hecht HS, Jamieson MJ, Kaul S, Berman D, Fayad Z, Budoff MJ, Rumberger J, Naqvi TZ, Shaw LJ, Faergeman O, Cohn J, Bahr R, Koenig W, Demirovic J, Arking D, Herrera VLM, Badimon J, Goldstein JA, Rudy Y, Airaksinen J, Schwartz RS, Riley WA, Mendes RA, Douglas P, Shah PK. From vulnerable plaque to vulnerable patient, part III: executive summary of the Screening for Heart Attack Prevention and Education (SHAPE) Task Force Report. Am J Cardiol. 2006;98:2-15.
54. ACCF/AHA 2007 Clinical expert consensus document on coronary artery calcium scoring by computed tomography in global cardiovascular risk assessment and in evaluation of patients with chest pain. Circulation. 2007;115:402-426.
55. Grundy SM, Bazzarre T, Cleeman J, D'Agostino RB, Hill M, Houston-Miller N, Kannel WB, Krauss R, Krumholz HM, Lauer RM, Ockene IS, Pasternak RC, Pearson TA, Ridker PM, Wood D. Prevention Conference V: beyond secondary prevention: identifying the high-risk patient for primary prevention: medical office assessment: Writing Group 1. Circulation. 2000; 101:e3-e11.
56. Kaplan EL, Meier P. Nonparametric estimation from incomplete observations. J Am Stat Assoc. 1958;53:457-481.
57. Cox DR. Regression models and life tables (with discussions). J R Stat Soc B. 1972;34:187-220.
58. Beiser A, D'Agostino RB, Seshadri S, Sullivan LM, Wolf PA. Computing estimates of incidence, including lifetime risk. Stat Med. 2002;19: 1495-1522.
59. Gaynor JJ, Feuer EJ, Tan CC, Wu DH, Little CR, Straus DJ, Clarkson BD, Brennan MF. On the use of cause-specific failure and conditional failure probabilities. J Am Stat Assoc. 1993;88:402-409.
60. Lloyd-Jones DM, Larson MG, Beiser A, Levy D. Lifetime risk of developing coronary heart disease. Lancet. 1999;353:89-92.
61. Lloyd-Jones DM, Larson MG, Leip EP, Beiser A, D'Agostino RB, Kannel WB, Murabito JM, Vasan RS, Benjamin EJ, Levy D. Lifetime risk for developing congestive heart failure: the Framingham Heart Study. Circulation. 2002;106:3068-3072. (Pubitemid 35440290)
62. Lloyd-Jones DM, Wang TJ, Leip EP, Larson MG, Levy D, Vasan RS, D'Agostino RB, Massaro JM, Beiser A, Wolf PA, Benjamin EJ. Lifetime risk for development of atrial fibrillation: the Framingham Heart Study. Circulation. 2004;110:1042-1046. (Pubitemid 39319000)
63. Lloyd-Jones DM, Wilson PWF, Larson MG, Leip EP, Beiser A, D'Agostino RB, Cleeman JI, Levy D. Lifetime risk for coronary heart disease by cholesterol levels at selected ages. Arch Intern Med. 2003; 163:1966-1972.
64. Mamun AA, Peeters A, Barendregt J, Willekens F, Nusselder W, Bonneux L. Smoking decreases the duration of life lived with and without cardiovascular disease: a life course analysis of the Framingham Heart Study. Eur Heart J. 2004;25:409-415.
65. Bleumink GS, Knetsch AM, Sturkenboom MCJM, Straus SMJM, Hofman A, Deckers JW, Witteman JCM, Stricker BHC. Quantifying the heart failure epidemic: prevalence, incidence rate, lifetime risk and prognosis of heart failure: the Rotterdam Study. Eur Heart J. 2004;25: 1614-1619.
66. Franco OH, Peeters A, Bonneux L, de Laet C. Blood pressure in adulthood and life expectancy with cardiovascular disease in men and women: life course analysis. Hypertension. 2005;46:280-286.
67. Berry JD, Liu K, Folsom AR, Lewis CE, Carr JJ, Polak JF, Shea S, Sidney S, O'Leary DH, Chan C, Lloyd-Jones DM. Prevalence and progression of subclinical atherosclerosis in younger adults with low short-term but high lifetime estimated risk for cardiovascular disease: the CARDIA and MESA studies. Circulation. 2009;119:382-389.
68. Marma AK, Berry JD, Ning H, Persell SD, Lloyd-Jones DM. Distribution of 10-year and lifetime predicted risks for cardiovascular disease in US adults: findings from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003 to 2006. Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes. 2010;3:8-14.
69. Pencina MJ, D'Agostino RB Sr, Larson MG, Massaro JM, Vasan RS. Predicting the 30-year risk of cardiovascular disease: the Framingham Heart Study. Circulation. 2009;119:3078-3084.
70. Effects of a polypill (Polycap) on risk factors in middle-aged individuals without cardiovascular disease (TIPS): a phase II, double-blind, randomised trial. Lancet. 2009;373:1341-1351.
71. Ford ES, Capewell S. Coronary heart disease mortality among young adults in the U.S. from 1980 through 2002: concealed leveling of mortality rates. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2007;50:2128-2132.