An analytical framework for flood water conservation considering forecast uncertainty and acceptable risk

Water Resources Research

Volumn 51, Issue 6, 2015, Pages 4702-4726

  Ding, Wei ^a,b   Zhang, Chi ^a   Peng, Yong ^a   Zeng, Ruijie ^b   Zhou, Huicheng ^a   Cai, Ximing ^b  

^a DALIAN UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (China)

^b University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign   (United States)

Author keywords

acceptable risk; flood control; forecast uncertainty; reservoir operation; residual flood conveyance capacity; water conservation

Indexed keywords

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL EFFECTS; FLOOD CONTROL; FORECASTING; HEAVY WATER; RESERVOIRS (WATER); UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WATER CONSERVATION; WATER LEVELS;

ACCEPTABLE RISK LEVELS; CONVEYANCE CAPACITY; DYNAMIC CONTROLS; FLOOD LIMITED WATER LEVELS; FORECAST UNCERTAINTY; HISTORICAL RECORDS; RESERVOIR INFLOW; RESERVOIR OPERATION;

FLOODS;

FLOOD CONTROL; FLOOD FORECASTING; FLOOD FREQUENCY; FLOW MODELING; INFLOW; RESERVOIR FLOODING; RISK ASSESSMENT; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WATER LEVEL; WATER MANAGEMENT;

EID: 84937513604     PISSN: 00431397     EISSN: 19447973     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/2015WR017127     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. Balinski, M. L., and, W. J. Baumol, (1968), The dual in nonlinear programming and its economic interpretation, Rev. Econ. Stud., 35 (3), 237-256.
2. Bazaraa, M. S., H. D. Sherali, and, C. M. Shetty, (2006), Nonlinear Programming: Theory and Algorithms, John Wiley, Hoboken, N. J.
3. Boettle, M., D. Rybski, and, J. P. Kropp, (2013), How changing sea level extremes and protection measures alter coastal flood damages, Water Resour. Res., 49, 1199-1210, doi: 10.1002/wrcr.20108.
4. Chen, J. H., S. L. Guo, Y. Li, P. Liu, and, Y. L. Zhou, (2013), Joint operation and dynamic control of flood limiting water levels for cascade reservoirs, Water Resour. Manage., 27, 749-763, doi: 10.1007/s11269-012-0213-z.
5. Chou, F. N.-F., and, C. W. Wu, (2013), Expected shortage based pre-release strategy for reservoir flood control, J. Hydrol., 497, 1-14, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.05.039.
6. Choudhury, P., (2010), Reservoir flood control operation model incorporating multiple uncontrolled water flows, Lakes Reservoirs Res. Manage., 15, 153-163, doi: 10.1111/j.1440-1770.2010.00431.
7. Chow, V. T., D. R. Maidment, and, L. W. Mays, (1988), Applied Hydrology, pp. 421-423, Tata McGraw-Hill Educ., N. Y.
8. Cloke, H. L., and, F. Pappenberger, (2009), Ensemble flood forecasting: A review, J. Hydrol., 375 (3-4), 613-626, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.005.
9. Croley, T. E., R. Rao, and, N. Kuchibotla, (1979), Multi-objective risks in reservoir operation, Water Resour. Res., 15 (4), 807-814, doi: 10.1029/WR015i004p00807.
10. Datta, B., and, S. J. Burges, (1984), Short-term, single, multiple-purpose reservoir operation-Importance of loss functions and forecast errors, Water Resour. Res., 20 (9), 1167-1176, doi: 10.1029/WR020i009p01167.
11. Datta, B., and, M. H. Houck, (1984), A stochastic optimization model for real-time operation of reservoirs using uncertain forecasts, Water Resour. Res., 20 (8), 1039-1046, doi: 10.1029/WR020i008p01039.
12. Diao, Y. F., and, B. D. Wang, (2011), Scheme optimum selection for dynamic control of reservoir limited water level, Sci. China Technol. Sci., 54 (10), 2605-2610, doi: 10.1007/s11431-011-4555-1.
13. DLUT (1996), Method and Application of Reservoir Flood Control Model With Forecast [in Chinese], Press of Hydraul. and Hydropower of China, Beijing.
14. Draper, A. J., and, J. R. Lund, (2004), Optimal hedging and carryover storage value, J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 130 (1), 83-87, doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2004)130:1(83).
15. Duren, F. K., and, L. R. Beard, (1972), Optimizing flood control allocation for a multipurpose reservoir, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 8, 735-744, doi: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.1972.tb05215.
16. Evin, G., D. Kavetski, M. Thyer, and, G. Kuczera, (2013), Pitfalls and improvements in the joint inference of heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation in hydrological model calibration, Water Resour. Res., 49, 4518-4524, doi: 10.1002/wrcr.20284.
17. Handbook of Nierji Reservoir Operation (2008), [in Chinese], pp. 204-207, Press of Nenjiang Nierji Water and Hydro-Power Co., Qiqihaer, China.
18. Hashimoto, T., J. R. Stedinger, and, D. P. Loucks, (1982), Reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability criteria for water resource system performance evaluation, Water Resour. Res., 18 (1), 4-20, doi: 10.1029/WR018i001p00014.
19. Hsu, N. S., and, C. C. Wei, (2007), A multipurpose reservoir real-time operation model for flood control during typhoon invasion, J. Hydrol., 336 (3), 282-293, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.01.001.
20. Jain, S. K., G. N. Yoganarasimhan, and, S. M. Seth, (1992), A risk-based approach for flood control operation of multipurpose reservoir, Water Resour. Bull., 6 (28), 1037-1042, doi: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.1992.tb04015.x.
21. Krzysztofowicz, R., (1999), Bayesian theory of probabilistic forecasting via deterministic hydrologic model, Water Resour. Res., 35 (9), 2739-2750, doi: 10.1029/1999WR900099.
22. Krzysztofowicz, R., and, L. Duckstein, (1979), Preference criterion for flood control under uncertainty, Water Resour. Res., 15 (3), 513-520, doi: 10.1029/WR015i003p00513.
23. Labadie, J., (2004), Optimal operation of multireservoir systems: State-of-the-art review, J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 130 (2), 93-111, doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)/0733-9496(2004)130:2(93).
24. Li, X., S. L. Guo, P. Liu, and, G. Y. Chen, (2010), Dynamic control of flood limited water level for reservoir operation by considering inflow uncertainty, J. Hydrol., 391 (1), 124-132, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.011.
25. Liu, X. Y., S. L. Guo, P. Liu, L. Chen, and, X. Li, (2011), Deriving optimal refill rules for multi-purpose reservoir operation, Water Resour. Manage., 25 (2), 431-448, doi: 10.1007/s11269-010-9707-8.
26. Loucks, D. P., J. R. Stedinger, and, D. A. Haith, (1981), Water Resource System Planning and Analysis, pp. 559, Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, N. J.
27. Ministry of Water Resources (MWR) (2000), Standard for Hydrological Information and Hydrological Forecasting (SL250-2000) [in Chinese], Standardization Administration of the People's Republic of China (SAC), Beijing.
28. Montanari, A., (2005), Large sample behaviors of the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) in assessing the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff simulations, Water Resour. Res., 41, W08406, doi: 10.1029/2004WR003826.
29. Nasseri, M., A. Ansari, and, B. Zahraie, (2014), Uncertainty assessment of hydrological models with fuzzy extension principle: Evaluation of a new arithmetic operator, Water Resour. Res., 50, 1095-1111, doi: 10.1002/2012WR013382.
30. Ngo, L. L., H. Madsen, and, D. Rosbjerg, (2007), Simulation and optimization modeling approach for operation of the Hoa Binh reservoir, Vietnam, J. Hydrol., 336 (3), 269-281, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.01.003.
31. Ngo, L. L., H. Madsen, D. Rosbjerg, and, C. B. Pedersen, (2008), Implementation and comparison of reservoir operation strategies for the Hoa Binh reservoir, Vietnam using the MIKE 11 model, Water Resour. Manage., 22 (4), 457-472, doi: 10.1007/s11269-007-9172-1.
32. Pianosi, F., and, R. Soncini-Sessa, (2009), Real-time management of a multipurpose water reservoir with a heteroscedastic inflow model, Water Resour. Res., 45, W10430, doi: 10.1029/2008WR007335.
33. Rasmussen, P. F., and, D. Rosbjerg, (1991), Evaluation of risk concepts in partial duration series, Stochastic Hydrol. Hydraul., 5 (1), 1-16, doi: 10.1007/BF01544174.
34. Raso, L., D. Schwanenberg, N. C. van de Giesen, and, P. J. van, Overloop, (2014), Short-term optimal operation of water systems using ensemble forecasts, Adv. Water Resour., 71, 200-208, doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2014.06.009.
35. Saavedra Valeriano, O. C., T. Koike, K. Yang, T. Graf, X. Li, L. Wang, and, X. Han, (2010), Decision support for dam release during floods using a distributed biosphere hydrological model driven by quantitative precipitation forecasts, Water Resour. Res., 46, W10544, doi: 10.1029/2010WR009502.
36. Schoups, G., and, J. A. Vrugt, (2010), A formal likelihood function for parameter and predictive inference of hydrologic models with correlated, heteroscedastic, and non-Gaussian errors, Water Resour. Res., 46, W10531, doi: 10.1029/2009WR008933.
37. Shiau, J. T., (2011), Analytical optimal hedging with explicit incorporation of reservoir release and carryover storage targets, Water Resour. Res., 47, W01515, doi: 10.1029/2010WR009166.
38. Simonovic, S. P., and, D. H. Burn, (1989), An improved methodology for short-term operation of a single multipurpose reservoir, Water Resour. Res., 25 (1), 1-8, doi: 10.1029/WR025i001p00001.
39. Sorooshian, S., and, J. A. Dracup, (1980), Stochastic parameter estimation procedures for hydrologie rainfall-runoff models: Correlated and heteroscedastic error cases, Water Resour. Res., 16 (2), 430-442, doi: 10.1029/WR016i002p00430.
40. Takeuchi, K., (1986), Chance-constrained model for real-time reservoir operation using drought duration curve, Water Resour. Res., 22 (4), 551-558, doi: 10.1029/WR022i004p00551.
41. Unver, O., and, L. Mays, (1990), Model for real-time optimal flood control operation of a reservoir system, Water Resour. Manage., 4 (1), 21-46, doi: 10.1007/BF00429923.
42. US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) (1998), HEC-5: Simulation of Flood Control and Conservation Systems, Hydrol. Eng. Cent., Davis, Calif.
43. Van Steenbergen, N., J. Ronsyn, and, P. Willems, (2012), A non-parametric data-based approach for probabilistic flood forecasting in support of uncertainty communication, Environ Modell Softw, 33, 92-105, doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.01.013.
44. Wang, B. D., and, H. C. Zhou, (2006), Theory, Method and Application of Reservoir Dynamic Control of the Limited Water Level [in Chinese], pp. 1-17, Press of Hydraul. and Hydropower of China, Beijing.
45. Wang, F., L. Wang, H. Zhou, O. C. Saavedra Valeriano, T. Koike, and, W. Li, (2012), Ensemble hydrological prediction-based real-time optimization of a multiobjective reservoir during flood season in a semiarid basin with global numerical weather predictions, Water Resour. Res., 48, W07520, doi: 10.1029/2011WR011366.
46. Wasimi, S. A., and, P. K. Kitanidis, (1983), Real-time forecasting and daily operation of a multireservoir system during floods by linear quadratic Gaussian control, Water Resour. Res., 19 (6), 1511-1522, doi: 10.1029/WR019i006p01511.
47. Wei, C. C., and, N. S. Hsu, (2009), Optimal tree-based release rules for real-time flood control operations on a multipurpose multireservoir system, J. Hydrol., 365 (3), 213-224, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.11.038.
48. Windsor, J. S., (1973), Optimization model for the operation of flood control systems, Water Resour. Res., 9 (5), 1219-1226, doi: 10.1029/WR009i005p01219.
49. Windsor, J. S., (1975), A programing model for the design of multireservoir flood control systems, Water Resour. Res., 11 (1), 30-36, doi: 10.1029/WR011i001p00030.
50. Yeh, W. W. G., (1985), Reservoir management and operations models: A state-of-the-art review, Water Resour. Res., 21 (12), 1797-1818, doi: 10.1029/WR021i012p01797.
51. You, J. Y., and, X. Cai, (2008a). Determining forecast and decision horizons for reservoir operations under hedging policies, Water Resour. Res., 44, W11430, doi: 10.1029/2008WR006978.
52. You, J. Y., and, X. M. Cai, (2008b), Hedging rule for reservoir operations: 1. A theoretical analysis, Water Resour. Res., 44, W01415, doi: 10.1029/2006WR005481.
53. You, J. Y., and, X. M. Cai, (2008c), Hedging rule for reservoir operations: 2. A numerical model, Water Resour. Res., 44, W01416, doi: 10.1029/2006WR005482.
54. Yun, R., and, V. P. Singh, (2008), Multiple duration limited water level and dynamic limited water level for flood control, with implications on water supply, J. Hydrol., 354 (1), 160-170, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.03.003.
55. Zhang, Y. P., G. L. Wang, Y. Peng, and, H. C. Zhou, (2011), Risk analysis of dynamic control of reservoir limited water level by considering flood forecast error, Sci. China Technol. Sci., 54 (7), 1888-1893, doi: 10.1007/s11431-011-4392-2.
56. Zhao, J., X. Cai, and, Z. Wang, (2011a), Optimality conditions for a two-stage reservoir operation problem, Water Resour. Res., 47, W08503, doi: 10.1029/2010WR009971.
57. Zhao, T. T. G., X. M. Cai, and, D. W. Yang, (2011b), Effect of streamflow forecast uncertainty on real-time reservoir operation, Adv. Water. Resour., 34, 495-504, doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2011.01.004.
58. Zhao, T. T. G., J. S. Zhao, J. R. Lund, and, D. W. Yang, (2014), Optimal hedging rules for reservoir flood operation from forecast uncertainties, J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage., 140, 04014041, doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000432.
59. Zhou, Y. L., S. L. Guo, P. Liu, and, X. Chong, (2014), Joint operation and dynamic control of flood limiting water levels for mixed cascade reservoir systems, J. Hydrol., 519, 248-257, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.07.029.