Climate change effects on the worst-case storm surge: A case study of Typhoon Haiyan

Environmental Research Letters

Volumn 10, Issue 6, 2015, Pages

  Takayabu, Izuru ^a   Hibino, Kenshi ^b   Sasaki, Hidetaka ^a   Shiogama, Hideo ^c   Mori, Nobuhito ^d   Shibutani, Yoko ^e   Takemi, Tetsuya ^d  

^a METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Japan)

^b UNIVERSITY OF TSUKUBA   (Japan)

^c NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES   (Japan)

^d KYOTO UNIVERSITY   (Japan)

^e TOTTORI UNIVERSITY   (Japan)

Author keywords

climate change; haiyan; storm surge; typhoon; worst case scenario

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; BALLOONS; CLIMATE MODELS; FLOODS; HURRICANES; OCEANOGRAPHY; STORMS; SURFACE WATERS;

ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGES; CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL PROCESS; ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETER; HAIYAN; JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCIES; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST); STORM SURGES; WORST CASE SCENARIO;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLOUD MICROPHYSICS; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SHALLOW WATER; STORM SURGE; TYPHOON HAIYAN 2013;

EASTERN VISAYAS; LEYTE [(ISL) VISAYAS]; PHILIPPINES; VISAYAS;

EID: 84937468932     PISSN: 17489318     EISSN: 17489326     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064011     Document Type: Article

References (40)

1. Bindoff N L et al 2013 Detection and attribution of climate change: from global to regional Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed T F Stocker, D Qin, G-K Plattner, M Tignor, S K Allen, J Boschung, A Nauels, Y Xia, V Bex and P M Midgley (Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press)
2. Buizza R and Palmer T N 1995 The singular-vector structure of the atmospheric global circulation J. Atmos. Sci. 52 1434-56
3. Christidis N and Stott P A 2014 Change in the odds of warm years and seasons due to anthropogenic influence on the climate J. Climate 27 2607-21
4. Church J and White N 2011 Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st century Surv. Geophys. 32 1-18
5. DiNezio P N, Vecchi G A and Clement A C 2013 Detectability of changes in the Walker circulation in response to global warming J. Clim. 26 4038-48
6. Dvorak V F 1975 Tropical cyclone intensity analysis and forecasting from satellite imagery from satellite imagery Mon. Wea. Rev. 103 420-30
7. Emanuel K A 1986 An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones: I. Steady-state maintenance J. Atmos. Sci. 43 585-604
8. Emanuel K A 2005 Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years Nature 436 686-8
9. Gentry M S and Lackmann G M 2010 Sensitivity of simulated tropical cyclone structure and intensity to horizontal resolution Mon. Wea. Rev. 138 688-704
10. Gray W M 1975 Tropical cyclone genesis in the Western North Pacific Envpredrschfac Technical Paper No 16-75 66 p
11. Hansen G, Auffhammer M and Solow A R 2014 On the attribution of a single event to climate change J. Climate 27 8297-301
12. IPCC, Climate Change 2013 The physical science basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press) 1535 p
13. Kain J S and Fritsch J M 1990 A one-dimensional entraining/detraining plume model and its application in convective parameterization J. Atmos. Sci. 47 2784-802
14. Kain J S and Fritsch J M 1993 Convective parameterization for mesoscale models: the Kain-Fritcsh scheme The Representation of Cumulus Convection in Numerical Models ed K A Emanuel and D J Raymond (Boston, MA: American Meteorological Society) 246 p
15. Kanada S, Nakano M, Wada A and Kato T 2012 Effect of PBL schemes on the development of intense tropical cyclones using a cloud resolving model J. Gophys. Res. 117 D3
16. Kim S-Y, Yasuda T and Mase H 2008 Numerical analysis of effects of tidal variations on storm surges and waves Appl. Ocean Res. 30 311-22
17. Knutson T R and Tuleya R E 2004 Impact of CO2-induced warming on simulated Hurricane intensity and precipitation: Sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective parameterization J. Clim. 17 3477-95
18. Lin I-I, Pun I-F and Lien C-C 2014 'Category-6' supertyphoon Haiyan in global warming hiatus: contribution from subsurface ocean warming Geophys. Res. Lett. 41 8547-53
19. Lin N, Emanuel K, Oppenheimer M and Vanmarcke E 2012 Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change Nat. Clim. Change 2 462-7
20. Mori N, Kato M, Kim S, Mase H, Shibutani Y, Takemi T, Tsuboki K and Yasuda T 2014 Local amplification of storm surge by Super Typhoon Haiyan in Leyte Gulf, Geo Research Letters 41 5106-13
21. Otto F E L, Massey N, van Oldenborgh G J, Jones R G and Allen M R 2012 Reconciling two approaches to attribution of the 2010 Russian heat wave Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L04702
22. Pall P, Aina T, Stone D A, Stott P A, Nozawa T, Hilberts A G J, Lohman D and Allen M R 2011 Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000 Nature 470 380-4
23. Rayner N A, Parker D E, Holton E B, Folland C K, Alexander L V, Rowell D P, Kent E C and Kaplan A 2003 Global analysis of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century J. Geophys. Res. 108 4407
24. Saito K, Kuroda T, Kunii M and Kohno N 2010 Numerical simulation of Myanmar cyclone Nargis and the associated storm surge: II. Ensemble prediction J. Met. Soc. Japan 88 547-70
25. Saito K 2011 Comparison of initial perturbation methods for the mesoscale ensemble prediction system of the meteorological research institute for the WWRP Bsijing 2008 Olympics research and development project (B08RDB) Tellus 63A 445-67
26. Sakai R 2009 The one-week ensemble prediction system at JMA Annual Report of Numerical Prediction Division, JMA 55 117-25 (in Japanese)
27. Sasaki H, Murata A, Hanafusa M, Oh'izumi M and Kurihara K 2011 Reproducibility of present climate in a non-hydrostatic regional climate model nested within an atmosphere general circulation model SOLA 7 173-6
28. Schiermeier Q 2013 Did climate change cause Typhoon Haiyan? Nature
29. Shiogama H, Watanabe M, Imada Y, Mori M, Kamae Y, Ishii M and Kimoto M 2014 Attribution of the June-July 2013 heat wave in the southwestern United States SOLA 10 122-6
30. Sweet W, Sweet W., Zerbas C., Gill S. and Park J. 2013 Hurricane Sandy inundation probabilities today and tomorrow [in Explaining extreme events of 2012 from a climate perspective] Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 94 S17-20
31. Skamarock W C, Klemp J B, Dudhia J, Gill D O, Barker D M, Duda M G, Huang X-Y, Wang W and Powers J G 2 2008 A description of the advaned research WRF version 3 NCAR Teck. Note 475 113 National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colo. (2008)
32. Tajima T et al 2014 Initial report of JSCE joint survey on the storm surge disaster caused by Typhoon Haiyan Coastal Eng. J. 56 1450006
33. Tang B and Emanuel K 2010 Midlevel ventilation constraint on tropical cyclone intensity J. Atmos. Sci. 67 1817-30
34. Tang B and Emanuel K 2012 A ventilation index for tropical cyclones Bull. Atmes. Met. Soc. 92 1901-12
35. Tokinaga H, Xie S-P, Desar C, Kosaka Y and Okumura Y M 2012 Slowdown of the Walker circulation driven by tropical Indo-Pacific warming Nature 491 439-43
36. Vincent E M, Emanuel K A, Lengaigne M, Vialard J and Madec G 2014 Influence of upper ocean stratification interannual variability on tropical cyclones J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 6 680-99
37. Watanabe M et al 2010 Improved climate simulation by MIROC5: mean states, variability, and climate sensitivity J. Climate 23 6312-35
38. Weatherford C L and Gray W M 1988 Typhoon structure as revealed by aircraft reconnaissance: II. Structural variability Mon. Wea. Rev. 116 1044-56
39. Wolski P, Stone D, Tadross M, Wehner M and Hewitson B 2014 Attribution of floods in the Okavango basin, Southern Africa J. Hydrology 511 350-8
40. Woodworth P L, White N J, Jevrejeva S, Holgate S J, Church J A and Gehrels W R 2008 Evidence for the accelerations of sea level on multi-decade and century timescales Int. J. Climatol. 29 777-89