Influence of upper ocean stratification interannual variability on tropical cyclones

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

Volumn 6, Issue 3, 2015, Pages 680-699

  Vincent, Emmanuel M ^a   Emanuel, Kerry A ^a   Lengaigne, Matthieu ^b,c   Vialard, Jérôme ^b   Madec, Gurvan ^b  

^a MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (United States)

^b SORBONNE UNIVERSITÉ   (France)

^c Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology   (India)

Author keywords

ENSO; intense hurricanes; interannual variability; tropical cyclone activity; upper ocean stratification

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATOLOGY; FEEDBACK; HURRICANES; STORMS; TROPICS;

ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT; DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING; ENSO; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; OPERATIONAL FORECASTS; SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE; TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY; UPPER OCEAN;

OCEANOGRAPHY;

AIR-SEA INTERACTION; ANNUAL VARIATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; DOWNSCALING; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; STRATIFICATION; SUBSURFACE FLOW; TROPICAL CYCLONE;

INDIAN OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN;

EID: 84924765717     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19422466     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/2014MS000327     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. Aparna, S. G., J. P. McCreary, D. Shankar, and, P. N. Vinayachandran, (2012), Signatures of Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño-Southern Oscillation events in sea level variations in the Bay of Bengal, J. Geophys. Res., 117, C10012, doi: 10.1029/2012JC008055.
2. Balaguru, K., P. Chang, R. Saravanan, L. R. Leung, Z. Xu, M. Li, and, J.-S. Hsieh, (2012), Ocean barrier layers' effect on tropical cyclone intensification, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 109 (36), 14,343-14,347.
3. Balaguru, K., L. Ruby Leung, and, J.-H. Yoon, (2013), Oceanic control of Northeast Pacific hurricane activity at interannual timescales, Environ. Res. Lett., 8 (4), 044009, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044009.
4. Boulanger, J.-P., and, C. Menkes, (1995), Propagation and reflection of long equatorial waves in the Pacific Ocean during the 1992-1993 El Niño, J. Geophys. Res., 100 (C12), 25,041-25,059, doi: 10.1029/95JC02956.
5. Chiang, J. C., and, D. J. Vimont, (2004), Analogous Pacific and Atlantic meridional modes of tropical atmosphere-ocean variability, J. Clim., 17 (21), 4143-4158.
6. Chu, P.-S., (2004), ENSO and tropical cyclone activity, in Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present, and Potential, pp. 297-332, Columbia Univ. Press, New York.
7. Cione, J. J., and, E. W. Uhlhorn, (2003), Sea surface temperature variability in hurricanes: Implications with respect to intensity change, Mon. Weather Rev., 131 (8), 1783-1796.
8. Deser, C., M. A. Alexander, S.-P. Xie, and, A. S. Phillips, (2010), Sea Surface Temperature Variability: Patterns and mechanisms, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 2 (1), 115-143, doi: 10.1146/annurev-marine-20408-151453.
9. Emanuel, K. A., (1986), An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part I: Steady-state maintenance, J. Atmos. Sci., 43 (6), 585-605.
10. Emanuel, K. A., (1999), Thermodynamic control of hurricane intensity, Nature, 401, 665-669.
11. Emanuel, K. A., (2005), Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years, Nature, 436 (7051), 686-688, doi: 10.1038/nature03906.
12. Emanuel, K. A., (2006), Climate and tropical cyclone activity: A new model downscaling approach, J. Clim., 19 (19), 4797-4802.
13. Emanuel, K. A., C. DesAutels, C. Holloway, and, R. Korty, (2004), Environmental control of tropical cyclone intensity, J. Atmos. Sci., 61 (7), 843-858, doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061 <0843:ECOTCI>2.0.CO;2.
14. Emanuel, K. A., S. Ravela, E. Vivant, and, C. Risi, (2006), A statistical deterministic approach to hurricane risk assessment, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 87 (3), 299-314.
15. Emanuel, K. A., R. Sundararajan, and, J. Williams, (2008), Hurricanes and global warming: Results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 89 (3), 347-367, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-89-3-347.
16. Ferry, N., et al., (2012), GLORYS2V1 global ocean reanalysis of the Altimetric Era (1993-2009) at meso scale, Mercator Ocean Q. Newsl., 44, 28-39.
17. Gentry, M. S., and, G. M. Lackmann, (2010), Sensitivity of simulated tropical cyclone structure and intensity to horizontal resolution, Mon. Weather Rev., 138 (3), 688-704.
18. Jacob, S. D., and, L. K. Shay, (2003), The role of oceanic mesoscale features on the tropical cyclone-induced mixed layer response: A case study, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 33 (4), 649-676.
19. Jourdain, N. C., P. Marchesiello, C. E. Menkes, J. Lefèvre, E. M. Vincent, M. Lengaigne, and, F. Chauvin, (2011), Mesoscale simulation of tropical cyclones in the South Pacific: Climatology and interannual variability, J. Clim., 24 (1), 3-25, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3559.1.
20. Jourdain, N. C., M. Lengaigne, J. Vialard, G. Madec, C. E. Menkes, E. M. Vincent, S. Jullien, and, B. Barnier, (2013), Observation-based estimates of surface cooling inhibition by heavy rainfall under tropical cyclones, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 43 (1), 205-221, doi: 10.1175/JPO-D-12-085.1.
21. Jourdain, N. C., B. Barnier, N. Ferry, J. Vialard, C. E. Menkes, M. Lengaigne, and, L. Parent, (2014), Tropical cyclones in two atmospheric (re)analyses and their response in two oceanic reanalyses, Ocean Modell., 73 (C), 108-122, doi: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2013.10.007.
22. Kalnay, E., et al., (1996), The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 437-471.
23. Kossin, J. P., and, D. J. Vimont, (2007), A more general framework for understanding Atlantic hurricane variability and trends, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 88 (11), 1767-1781, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-88-11-1767.
24. Lin, I.-I., C.-C. Wu, I.-F. Pun, and, D.-S. Ko, (2008), Upper-ocean thermal structure and the Western North Pacific category 5 typhoons. Part I: Ocean features and the category 5 typhoons' intensification, Mon. Weather Rev., 136 (9), 3288-3306, doi: 10.1175/2008MWR2277.1.
25. Lin, I.-I., P. Black, J. F. Price, C. Y. Yang, S. S. Chen, C. C. Lien, P. Harr, N. H. Chi, C. C. Wu, and, E. A. D'Asaro, (2013), An ocean coupling potential intensity index for tropical cyclones, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1878-1882, doi: 10.1002/grl.50091.
26. Lloyd, I. D., and, G. A. Vecchi, (2011), Observational evidence for oceanic controls on hurricane intensity, J. Clim., 24 (4), 1138-1153, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3763.1.
27. Madec, G., (2008), NEMO ocean engine, in Note du Pôle de Modélisation, vol. 27, 337 pp., Inst. Pierre-Simon Laplace, Paris.
28. Mei, W., C. Pasquero, and, F. Primeau, (2012), The effect of translation speed upon the intensity of tropical cyclones over the tropical ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L07801, doi: 10.1029/2011GL050765.
29. Menkes, C. E., M. Lengaigne, P. Marchesiello, N. C. Jourdain, E. M. Vincent, J. Lefèvre, F. Chauvin, and, J.-F. Royer, (2011), Comparison of tropical cyclogenesis indices on seasonal to interannual timescales, Clim. Dyn., 38 (1-2), 301-321, doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1126-x.
30. Murakami, H., and, B. Wang, (2010), Future change of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks: Projection by a 20-km-mesh global atmospheric model, J. Clim., 23 (10), 2699-2721.
31. Neetu, S., M. Lengaigne, E. M. Vincent, J. Vialard, G. Madec, G. Samson, M. R. Ramesh Kumar, and, F. Durand, (2012), Influence of upper-ocean stratification on tropical cyclone-induced surface cooling in the Bay of Bengal, J. Geophys. Res., 117, C12020, doi: 10.1029/2012JC008433.
32. Pielke, R. A., Jr,., and, C. W. Landsea, (1998), Normalized hurricane damages in the United States: 1925-95, Weather Forecasting, 13 (3), 621-631.
33. Price, J. F., (1981), Upper ocean response to a hurricane, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 11 (2), 153-175.
34. Price, J. F., (2009), Metrics of hurricane-ocean interaction: Vertically-integrated or vertically-averaged ocean temperature?, Ocean Sci., 5, 351-368.
35. Reyment, R. A., and, K. G. Jörekog, (1993), Applied Factor Analysis in the Earth Sciences, 2nd ed., Cambridge Univ. Press, London.
36. Saji, N. H., B. N. Goswami, P. N. Vinayachandran, and, T. Yamagata, (1999), A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean, Nature, 401 (6751), 360-363.
37. Schade, L. R., and, K. A. Emanuel, (1999), The ocean's effect on the intensity of tropical cyclones: Results from a simple coupled atmosphere-ocean model, J. Atmos. Sci., 56 (4), 642-651.
38. Tang, B., and, K. Emanuel, (2010), Midlevel ventilation's constraint on tropical cyclone intensity, J. Atmos. Sci., 67 (6), 1817-1830, doi: 10.1175/2010JAS3318.1.
39. Tang, B. H., and, J. D. Neelin, (2004), ENSO influence on Atlantic hurricanes via tropospheric warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L24204, doi: 10.1029/2004GL021072.
40. Tozuka, T., T. Yokoi, and, T. Yamagata, (2010), A modeling study of interannual variations of the Seychelles Dome, J. Geophys. Res., 115, C04005, doi: 10.1029/2009JC005547.
41. Vecchi, G. A., K. L. Swanson, and, B. J. Soden, (2008), Whither hurricane activity, Science, 322 (5902), 687-689.
42. Vialard, J., et al., (2009), Cirene: Air sea interactions in the Seychelles-Chagos thermocline ridge region, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 45-61, doi: 10.1175/2008BAMS2499.1.
43. Vincent, E. M., (2011), Interactions between Tropical Cyclones and the Ocean: Linking event scale processes to climate scale consequences, PhD thesis, Univ. Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, doi: 10.6084/m9.figshare.966608.
44. Vincent, E. M., M. Lengaigne, C. E. Menkes, N. C. Jourdain, P. Marchesiello, and, G. Madec, (2011), Interannual variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone and implications for tropical cyclone genesis, Clim. Dyn., 36 (9-10), 1881-1896, doi: 10.1007/s00382-009-0716-3.
45. Vincent, E. M., M. Lengaigne, G. Madec, J. Vialard, G. Samson, N. C. Jourdain, C. E. Menkes, and, S. Jullien, (2012a), Processes setting the characteristics of sea surface cooling induced by tropical cyclones, J. Geophys. Res., 117, C02020, doi: 10.1029/2011JC007396.
46. Vincent, E. M., M. Lengaigne, J. Vialard, G. Madec, N. C. Jourdain, and, S. Masson, (2012b), Assessing the oceanic control on the amplitude of sea surface cooling induced by tropical cyclones, J. Geophys. Res., 117, C05023, doi: 10.1029/2011JC007705.
47. Wada, A., and, J. C. L. Chan, (2008), Relationship between typhoon activity and upper ocean heat content, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L17603, doi: 10.1029/2008GL035129.
48. Webster, P. J., A. Moore, J. Loschnigg, and, M. Leban, (1999), Coupled dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997-1998, Nature, 401, 356-360.
49. Wentz, F. J., C. Gentemann, D. Smith, and, D. Chelton, (2000), Satellite measurements of sea surface temperature through clouds, Science, 288 (5467), 847-850, doi: 10.1126/science.288.5467.847.
50. Xie, S.-P., H. Annamalai, F. A. Schott, and, J. P. McCreary Jr,. (2002), Structure and mechanisms of south Indian Ocean climate variability, J. Clim., 15 (8), 864-878.
51. Yablonsky, R. M., and, I. Ginis, (2009), Limitation of one-dimensional ocean models for coupled hurricane-Ocean model forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 137 (12), 4410-4419, doi: 10.1175/2009MWR2863.1.
52. Yu, W., B. Xiang, L. Liu, and, N. Liu, (2005), Understanding the origins of interannual thermocline variations in the tropical Indian Ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, 24706, doi: 10.1029/2005GL024327.
53. Zhao, M., I. M. Held, S. J. Lin, and, G. A. Vecchi, (2009), Simulations of global hurricane climatology, interannual variability, and response to global warming using a 50-km resolution GCM, J. Clim., 22 (24), 6653.