Flexibility or irrelevance: ways forward for the ARF

Contemporary Southeast Asia

Volumn 21, Issue 1, 1999, Pages 74-94

  Garofano, John ^a  

^a U S ARMY WAR COLLEGE   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84937323202     PISSN: 0129797X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1355/CS21-1D     Document Type: Article

References (32)

1. * The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.
2. See, for example, Aaron L. Friedberg, “Ripe for Rivalry: Prospects for Peace in a Multipolar Asia,” and Richard K. Betts, “Wealth, Power, and Instability: East Asia and the United States after the Cold War,” International Security 18 (Winter 1993/ 1994): 5–33, 34–77; and Jonathan D. Pollack, “Pacific Insecurity: Emerging Threats to Stability in East Asia”, Harvard International Review (Spring 1996): 8–11.
3. For a general discussion, see Richard A. Falkenrath, Shaping Europe’s Military Order: The Origins and Consequences of the CFE Treaty (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1995); and Catherine McArdle Kelleher, Jane M.O. Sharp, Lawrence Freedman, eds., The Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe: The Politics of Post-Wall Arms Control (Baden-Baden, 1996).
4. See Leif Rosenberger, “The Cultural Challenge for a Concert of Asia,” Contemporary Southeast Asia 18 (September 1996); and James Sperling, “Introduction: A Problem of Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific,” Journal of Asian and African Studies 33, no. 1 (February 1998): 1–19.
5. Shankari Sundararaman, “The ASEAN Regional Forum: Reassessing Multilateral Security in the Asia-Pacific”, Strategic Analysis 22, no. 4 (July 1998): 655–65. (http://www.idsa-india.org/an-jul8-11.html).
6. Amitav Acharya, “Ideas, Identity and Institution-Building: From the ‘ASEAN Way’ to the ‘Asia-Pacific Way’,” Pacific Review 10, no. 3 (1997).
7. Lt.Col Andris Balmaks, The Utility of Non-Official Security Dialogue in the Asia-Pacific in the Post-Cold War (Canberra: Asia-Australia Institute, July 1998), p. 8. See also Paul Evans, “The Dialogue Process on Asia Pacific Security Issues: Inventory of Analysis,” in Studying Asia Pacific Security, edited by Paul M. Evans (University of Toronto, 1994).
8. Balmaks, op. cit., p. 10.
9. Sheldon Simon, “The Limits of Defense and Security Cooperation in Southeast Asia,” Journal of Asian and African Studies 33, no. 1 (February 1998): 62–75; Barry Buzan, “The Post-Cold War Asia-Pacific Order: Conflict or Cooperation?,” in Pacific Cooperation: Building Economic and Security Regimes in the Asia-Pacific Region, edited by Andrew Mack and John Ravenhill (Col.: Westview, 1995); Yong Deng, “The Asianization of East Asian Security and the United States’ Role,” East Asia 16 (Autumn, 1998): 87–110. See the classic, Karl Deutsch, Community and the North Atlantic Area: International Organization in the Light of Historical Experience (Princeton, 1957).
10. Ming Zhang, “The Emerging Asia-Pacific Triangle,” Australian Journal of International Affairs 52, no. 1 (1998): 47–61.
11. Lee Lai To, “ASEAN and the South China Sea Conflicts,” Pacific Review 8, no. 3 (1995): 531–43; and Major M.J. Dugdale, ‘The Spratly Islands: Potential Flashpoint for Conflict in the South China Sea,” Australian Defence Force Journal, no. 125 (July/August 1997).
12. Shee Poon Kim, “The South China Sea in China’s Strategic Thinking,” Contemporary Southeast Asia 19, no. 4 (March 1998): 369–87.
13. Sheldon Simon, The Economic Crisis and ASEAN States’ Security (Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, October 1998), p. 10. Simon adds that “From bases in southern China, even the Su-27 would only be able to loiter about 30 minutes over the Spratly Islands” (p. 11).
14. Robert Ross, “Beijing as a Conservative Power,” Foreign Affairs 76, no. 2 (March/ April 1997): 36–37, cited in ibid.
15. A sophisticated view of changing domestic and international norms is given by Peter J. Katzenstein and Nobuo Okawara, Japan’s National Security: Structures, Norms and Policy Responses in a Changing World, Cornell East Series, Vol. 58 (Ithaca: Cornell, 1993).
16. For an optimistic view of conflict resolution on the Korean nuclear issue, see Leon V. Sigal, Disarming Strangers: Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea (Princeton, 1998).
17. Lee Lai To, op. cit.
18. Simon, The Economic Crisis, pp. 13–14.
19. Simon, The Economic Crisis, p. 14.
20. See, for example, Political Legitimacy in Southeast Asia: The Quest for Moral Authority, edited by Muthiah Alagappa (Stanford University Press, 1995).
21. George W. Downs, David M. Rocke, and Peter N. Barsoon, “Is the Good News about Compliance Good News about Cooperation?” International Cooperation 50 (Summer 1996): 379–406.
22. Peter M. Haas, “Epistemic Communities and International Policy Coordination,” International Organization 46 (Winter, 1992).
23. Thomas Risse-Kappen, ed., Bringing Transnational Relations Back In (New York: Cambridge, 1995).
24. Matthew Evangelista, “Transnational Relations and Security Policy,” International Organization 49 (Winter 1995): 1–38.
25. For exemplary analytical work and practical suggestions, see Bates Gil and J.N. Mak, Arms, Transparency and Security in South-East Asia, SIPRI Research Report No. 13 (Oxford, 1997). See also Ann M. Florini, “A New Role for Transparency,” Contemporary Security Policy 18 (1997): 51–72.
26. See J.N. Mak, “Security Perceptions, Transparency and Confidence-Building: An Analysis of the Malaysia Arms Acquisitions Process” (Paper presented for the UKM-SIPRI Project on Arms Procurement Decision-Making Process: Malaysia,” Bangi, Malaysia, 18 August 1997; Geoffrey Harris, “The Determinants of Defense Expenditure in the ASEAN Region”, Journal of Peace Research 23 (1986): 41–49; Robert E. Looney and P.C. Frederiksen, “The Economic Determinants of Military Expenditure in Selected East Asian Countries,” Contemporary Southeast Asia 11, no. 4 (1990): 265–77; and Andrew L. Ross, “Growth, Debt, and Military Spending in Southeast Asia,” Contemporary Southeast Asia 11, no. 4 (1990): 243–64.
27. Agence France Presse, 24 September 1998.
28. Shaun Narine, “ASEAN and the Management of Regional Security,” Pacific Affairs 71 (Summer 1998): 195–214.
29. Simon, The Economic Crisis; Deepa A. Ollapally, “Arms, Politics, and the Emerging Asian Balance of Power,” Asian Affairs 25, no. 2 (Summer 1998): 104–18; J.N. Mak, “The ASEAN Naval Build-up: Implications for Regional Order”, Pacific Review 8, no. 2 (1995): 303–25.
30. Charles Lipson, “Why are Some International Agreements Informal?” International Organization 45 (Autumn 1991): 495–538.
31. See, for example, Paul Keal, Unspoken Rules and Superpower Dominance (London: Macmillan, 1983).
32. See Simon, “The Limits of Defense and Security Cooperation,” pp. 67–69; Ji Guoxing, “China Versus South China Sea Security,” Security Dialogue 29 (1998): 101–12; and Shee Poon Kim, “The South China Sea in China’s Strategic Thinking,” Contemporary Southeast Asia 19, no. 4 (March 1998): 369–87).