메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 94, Issue , 2016, Pages 155-166

Seasonal drought predictability in Portugal using statistical–dynamical techniques

Author keywords

Drought index SPI; Long range forecasts; Precipitation forecasting; Predictability; Statistical prediction

Indexed keywords

DECISION MAKING; DROUGHT; STATISTICS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 84929791781     PISSN: 14747065     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2015.04.003     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (15)

References (52)
  • 1
    • 80054830149 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of global precipitation data sets over the Iberian Peninsula
    • Belo-Pereira, M., Dutra, E., Viterbo, P., Evaluation of global precipitation data sets over the Iberian Peninsula. J. Geophys. Res., 116, 2011, D20101, 10.1029/2010JD015481.
    • (2011) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.116 , pp. D20101
    • Belo-Pereira, M.1    Dutra, E.2    Viterbo, P.3
  • 2
    • 0028250159 scopus 로고
    • Predictability of seasonal atmospheric variations
    • Brankovic, C., Palmer, T.N., Ferranti, L., Predictability of seasonal atmospheric variations. J. Clim. 7 (1994), 217–237.
    • (1994) J. Clim. , vol.7 , pp. 217-237
    • Brankovic, C.1    Palmer, T.N.2    Ferranti, L.3
  • 4
    • 78649853176 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Challenges for integrating seasonal climate forecasts in user applications
    • Coelho, C.A.S., Costa, S.M.S., Challenges for integrating seasonal climate forecasts in user applications. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain. 2 (2010), 317–325.
    • (2010) Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain. , vol.2 , pp. 317-325
    • Coelho, C.A.S.1    Costa, S.M.S.2
  • 6
    • 0031284597 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • North Atlantic and European seasonal predictability using an ensemble of multidecadal atmospheric GCM Simulations
    • Davies, J.R., Rowell, D.P., Folland, C.K., North Atlantic and European seasonal predictability using an ensemble of multidecadal atmospheric GCM Simulations. Int. J. Climatol. 17 (1997), 1263–1284.
    • (1997) Int. J. Climatol. , vol.17 , pp. 1263-1284
    • Davies, J.R.1    Rowell, D.P.2    Folland, C.K.3
  • 7
    • 33947320110 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Influence of teleconnection patterns on precipitation variability and on river flow regimes in the Miño River basin (NW Iberian Peninsula)
    • deCastro, M., Lorenzo, N., Taboada, J.J., Sarmiento, M., Alvarez, I., Gomez-Gesteira, M., Influence of teleconnection patterns on precipitation variability and on river flow regimes in the Miño River basin (NW Iberian Peninsula). Climate Res. 32 (2006), 63–73.
    • (2006) Climate Res. , vol.32 , pp. 63-73
    • deCastro, M.1    Lorenzo, N.2    Taboada, J.J.3    Sarmiento, M.4    Alvarez, I.5    Gomez-Gesteira, M.6
  • 8
    • 84981606334 scopus 로고
    • Formulation of Gaussian probability forecasts based on model extended-range integrations
    • Déqué, M., Stroe, R., Formulation of Gaussian probability forecasts based on model extended-range integrations. Tellus 46A (1994), 52–65.
    • (1994) Tellus , vol.46A , pp. 52-65
    • Déqué, M.1    Stroe, R.2
  • 10
    • 0032583290 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation in Spain for the period 1880–1992
    • Esteban-Parra, M.J., Rodrigo, F.C., Castro-Díez, Y., Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation in Spain for the period 1880–1992. Int. J. Climatol. 18 (1998), 1557–1574.
    • (1998) Int. J. Climatol. , vol.18 , pp. 1557-1574
    • Esteban-Parra, M.J.1    Rodrigo, F.C.2    Castro-Díez, Y.3
  • 11
    • 84857298244 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How potentially predictable is the northern European winter climate a season ahead?
    • Folland, C.K., Scaife, A.A., Lindesay, J., Stephenson, D.B., How potentially predictable is the northern European winter climate a season ahead?. Int. J. Climatol. 32 (2012), 801–808.
    • (2012) Int. J. Climatol. , vol.32 , pp. 801-808
    • Folland, C.K.1    Scaife, A.A.2    Lindesay, J.3    Stephenson, D.B.4
  • 13
    • 51449087133 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change projections for the mediterranean region, global planet
    • Giorgi, F., Lionello, P., Climate change projections for the mediterranean region, global planet. Change 63 (2008), 90–104.
    • (2008) Change , vol.63 , pp. 90-104
    • Giorgi, F.1    Lionello, P.2
  • 14
    • 70749148229 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Drought and vegetation stress monitoring in Portugal using satellite data
    • Gouveia, C., Trigo, R.M., DaCamara, C.C., Drought and vegetation stress monitoring in Portugal using satellite data. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 9 (2009), 185–195, 10.5194/nhess-9-185-2009.
    • (2009) Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. , vol.9 , pp. 185-195
    • Gouveia, C.1    Trigo, R.M.2    DaCamara, C.C.3
  • 15
    • 84869160887 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Drought impacts on vegetation in the pre- and post-fire events over Iberian Peninsula
    • Gouveia, C.M., Bastos, A., Trigo, R.M., DaCamara, C.C., Drought impacts on vegetation in the pre- and post-fire events over Iberian Peninsula. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 12 (2012), 3123–3137.
    • (2012) Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. , vol.12 , pp. 3123-3137
    • Gouveia, C.M.1    Bastos, A.2    Trigo, R.M.3    DaCamara, C.C.4
  • 16
    • 34447617023 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Empirical orthogonal functions and related techniques in atmospheric science: a review
    • Hannachi, A., Jolliffe, I.T., Stephenson, D.B., Empirical orthogonal functions and related techniques in atmospheric science: a review. Int. J. Climatol. 27 (2007), 1119–1152, 10.1002/joc.1499.
    • (2007) Int. J. Climatol. , vol.27 , pp. 1119-1152
    • Hannachi, A.1    Jolliffe, I.T.2    Stephenson, D.B.3
  • 17
    • 0029479274 scopus 로고
    • Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation
    • Hurrel, J.W., Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation. Science 269 (1995), 676–679.
    • (1995) Science , vol.269 , pp. 676-679
    • Hurrel, J.W.1
  • 18
    • 78149438999 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extended-range seasonal hurricane forecasts for the North Atlantic with a hybrid dynamical-statistical model
    • Kim, H., Webster, P.J., Extended-range seasonal hurricane forecasts for the North Atlantic with a hybrid dynamical-statistical model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, 2010, L21705, 10.1029/2010GL044792.
    • (2010) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.37 , pp. L21705
    • Kim, H.1    Webster, P.J.2
  • 19
    • 84869506823 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter
    • Kim, H., Webster, P.J., Curry, J.A., Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter. Clim. Dyn. 39 (2012), 2957–2973.
    • (2012) Clim. Dyn. , vol.39 , pp. 2957-2973
    • Kim, H.1    Webster, P.J.2    Curry, J.A.3
  • 20
  • 21
    • 0001895140 scopus 로고
    • The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales
    • In: on Applied Climatology, American Meteorological Society, pp.
    • McKee, T.B., Doeskin, N.J., Kleist, J., 1993. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Eighth Conf. on Applied Climatology, American Meteorological Society, pp. 179–184.
    • (1993) Eighth Conf , pp. 179-184
    • McKee, T.B.1    Doeskin, N.J.2    Kleist, J.3
  • 22
    • 37249024658 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Drought forecasting using artificial neural networks and time series of drought indices
    • Morid, S., Smakhtin, V., Bagherzadeh, K., Drought forecasting using artificial neural networks and time series of drought indices. Int. J. Climatol. 27 (2007), 2103–2111.
    • (2007) Int. J. Climatol. , vol.27 , pp. 2103-2111
    • Morid, S.1    Smakhtin, V.2    Bagherzadeh, K.3
  • 23
    • 0003612277 scopus 로고
    • Meteorological Drought
    • US Weather Bureau, 45, p. 58.
    • Palmer, W.C., 1965. Meteorological Drought. US Weather Bureau, 45, p. 58.
    • (1965)
    • Palmer, W.C.1
  • 24
    • 84904743851 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical calibration and bridging of ECMWF System4 for forecasting seasonal precipitation over China
    • Peng, Z., Wang, Q.J., Bennet, J.C., Schepen, A., Pappenberger, F., Pokhrel P., Wang, Z., Statistical calibration and bridging of ECMWF System4 for forecasting seasonal precipitation over China. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 2014, 119 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021162.
    • (2014) J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. , pp. 119
    • Peng, Z.1    Wang, Q.J.2    Bennet, J.C.3    Schepen, A.4    Pappenberger, F.5    Pokhrel P.6    Wang, Z.7
  • 25
    • 84989770546 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Prévision Atmosphérique à Long-Terme: Un Problème d'Hybridation Statistico-Dynamique
    • Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris Thèse de Doctorat
    • Pires, C., Prévision Atmosphérique à Long-Terme: Un Problème d'Hybridation Statistico-Dynamique. 1996, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, Thèse de Doctorat.
    • (1996)
    • Pires, C.1
  • 26
    • 33847363253 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Non-Gaussianity and asymmetry of the winter monthly precipitation estimation from the NAO
    • Pires, C.A., Perdigão, R.A.P., Non-Gaussianity and asymmetry of the winter monthly precipitation estimation from the NAO. Mon. Wea. Rev. 135 (2007), 430–448.
    • (2007) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.135 , pp. 430-448
    • Pires, C.A.1    Perdigão, R.A.P.2
  • 27
    • 0000297369 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The association between ENSO and winter atmospheric circulation and temperature in the north Atlantic region
    • Pozo-Vázquez, D., Esteban-Parra, M.J., Rodrigo, F.S., Castro-Díez, Y., The association between ENSO and winter atmospheric circulation and temperature in the north Atlantic region. J. Clim. 14 (2001), 3408–3420.
    • (2001) J. Clim. , vol.14 , pp. 3408-3420
    • Pozo-Vázquez, D.1    Esteban-Parra, M.J.2    Rodrigo, F.S.3    Castro-Díez, Y.4
  • 28
    • 84920711365 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • SPI modes of drought spatial and temporal variability in portugal: comparing observations, PT02, and GPCC gridded datasets
    • Raziei, T., Martins, D.S., Bordi, I., Santos, J.F., Portela, M.M., Pereira, L.S., Sutera, A., SPI modes of drought spatial and temporal variability in portugal: comparing observations, PT02, and GPCC gridded datasets. Water Resour. Manage., 2014, 25634 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0690-3.
    • (2014) Water Resour. Manage. , pp. 25634
    • Raziei, T.1    Martins, D.S.2    Bordi, I.3    Santos, J.F.4    Portela, M.M.5    Pereira, L.S.6    Sutera, A.7
  • 29
    • 0031746938 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatial and temporal patterns of annual precipitation variability over the Iberian Peninsula
    • Rodriguez-Puebla, C., Encinas, A.H., Nieto, S., Garmendia, J., Spatial and temporal patterns of annual precipitation variability over the Iberian Peninsula. Int. J. Climatol. 18 (1998), 299–316.
    • (1998) Int. J. Climatol. , vol.18 , pp. 299-316
    • Rodriguez-Puebla, C.1    Encinas, A.H.2    Nieto, S.3    Garmendia, J.4
  • 30
    • 0034862577 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and its relationship to circulation indices
    • Rodríguez-Puebla, C., Encinas, A.H., Sáenz, J., Winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and its relationship to circulation indices. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 5:2 (2001), 233–244.
    • (2001) Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. , vol.5 , Issue.2 , pp. 233-244
    • Rodríguez-Puebla, C.1    Encinas, A.H.2    Sáenz, J.3
  • 31
    • 0032004271 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing potential seasonal predictability with an ensemble of multidecadal GCM simulations
    • Rowell, D.P., Assessing potential seasonal predictability with an ensemble of multidecadal GCM simulations. J. Clim. 11 (1998), 109–119.
    • (1998) J. Clim. , vol.11 , pp. 109-119
    • Rowell, D.P.1
  • 35
  • 37
    • 0028328071 scopus 로고
    • Long-range weather forecasts through numerical and empirical methods
    • Van den Dool, H.M., Long-range weather forecasts through numerical and empirical methods. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans 20 (1994), 247–270.
    • (1994) Dyn. Atmos. Oceans , vol.20 , pp. 247-270
    • Van den Dool, H.M.1
  • 38
    • 0025583575 scopus 로고
    • Frequency dependence in forecast skill
    • Van den Dool, H.M., Saha, S., Frequency dependence in forecast skill. Mon. Weather Rev. 118 (1990), 128–137.
    • (1990) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.118 , pp. 128-137
    • Van den Dool, H.M.1    Saha, S.2
  • 39
    • 0000365426 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Long-range atmospheric predictability using space-time principal components
    • Vautard, R., Pires, C., Plaut, G., Long-range atmospheric predictability using space-time principal components. Mon. Weather Rev. 124 (1996), 288–307.
    • (1996) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.124 , pp. 288-307
    • Vautard, R.1    Pires, C.2    Plaut, G.3
  • 40
    • 31544464103 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • El Niño and LA Niña influence on droughts at different timescales in the Iberian Peninsula
    • Vicente-Serrano, S.M., El Niño and LA Niña influence on droughts at different timescales in the Iberian Peninsula. Water Resour. Res., 41, 2005, W12415.
    • (2005) Water Resour. Res. , vol.41 , pp. W12415
    • Vicente-Serrano, S.M.1
  • 41
    • 32144458890 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Differences in spatial patterns of drought on different time scales: an analysis of the Iberian Peninsula
    • Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Differences in spatial patterns of drought on different time scales: an analysis of the Iberian Peninsula. Water Resour. Manage 20 (2006), 37–60, 10.1007/s11269-006-2974-8.
    • (2006) Water Resour. Manage , vol.20 , pp. 37-60
    • Vicente-Serrano, S.M.1
  • 42
    • 33846172329 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluating the impact of drought using remote sensing in a mediterranean, semi-arid region
    • Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Evaluating the impact of drought using remote sensing in a mediterranean, semi-arid region. Nat. Hazards 40 (2007), 173–208, 10.1007/s11069-006-0009-7.
    • (2007) Nat. Hazards , vol.40 , pp. 173-208
    • Vicente-Serrano, S.M.1
  • 43
    • 33749335647 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The influence of atmospheric circulation at different spatial scales on winter drought variability through a semi-arid climatic gradient in Northeast Spain
    • Vicente-Serrano, S.M., López-Moreno, J.I., The influence of atmospheric circulation at different spatial scales on winter drought variability through a semi-arid climatic gradient in Northeast Spain. Int. J. Climatol. 26:11 (2006), 1427–1453.
    • (2006) Int. J. Climatol. , vol.26 , Issue.11 , pp. 1427-1453
    • Vicente-Serrano, S.M.1    López-Moreno, J.I.2
  • 44
    • 77953696347 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index
    • Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Beguería, S., López-Moreno, J.I., A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. J. Climate 23 (2010), 1696–1718.
    • (2010) J. Climate , vol.23 , pp. 1696-1718
    • Vicente-Serrano, S.M.1    Beguería, S.2    López-Moreno, J.I.3
  • 47
    • 84908886674 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evolution of ECMWF sub-seasonal forecast skill scores
    • Vitart, F., Evolution of ECMWF sub-seasonal forecast skill scores. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 2014 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2256.
    • (2014) Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc.
    • Vitart, F.1
  • 49
    • 0003973340 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical Analysis in Climate Research
    • Cambridge University Press Cambridge 484
    • von Storch, H., Zwiers, F.W., Statistical Analysis in Climate Research. 1999, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 484.
    • (1999)
    • von Storch, H.1    Zwiers, F.W.2
  • 50
    • 0003632941 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences
    • second ed. Academic Press Amsterdam
    • Wilks, D.S., Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. second ed., 2006, Academic Press, Amsterdam.
    • (2006)
    • Wilks, D.S.1
  • 51
    • 84897370471 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seamless precipitation prediction skill in the tropics and extratropics from a global model
    • Zhu, H., Wheeler, M.C., Sobel, A.H., Hudson, D., Seamless precipitation prediction skill in the tropics and extratropics from a global model. Mon. Weather Rev. 142 (2014), 1556–1569.
    • (2014) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.142 , pp. 1556-1569
    • Zhu, H.1    Wheeler, M.C.2    Sobel, A.H.3    Hudson, D.4
  • 52
    • 77950405851 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effective number of observations and unbiased estimators of variance for autocorrelated data – an overview
    • Zieba, A., Effective number of observations and unbiased estimators of variance for autocorrelated data – an overview. Metrol. Meas. Syst. 17:1 (2010), 3–16, 10.2478/v10178-010-0001-0.
    • (2010) Metrol. Meas. Syst. , vol.17 , Issue.1 , pp. 3-16
    • Zieba, A.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.