Long-range atmospheric predictability using space-time principal components

Monthly Weather Review

Volumn 124, Issue 2, 1996, Pages 288-307

  Vautard, Robert ^a   Pires, Carlos ^a   Plaut, Guy ^b  

^a LABORATOIRE DE MÉTÉOROLOGIE DYNAMIQUE   (France)

^b INSTITUT NON LINÉAIRE DE NICE   (France)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0000365426     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124<0288:LRAPUS>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (62)

1. Barnett, T. P., and R. W. Preisendorfer, 1978: Multifield analog prediction of short-term climate fluctuations using a climate state vector. J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 1771-1787.
2. _, and _, 1987: Origins and levels of monthly and seasonal forecast skill for United States surface air temperatures determined by canonical correlation analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1825-1850.
3. Barnston, A. G., 1992: Correspondence among the correlation, RMSE, and Heidke forecast verification measures. Refinement of the Heidke score. Wea. Forecasting, 7, 699-709.
4. _, 1994: Linear statistical short-term climate predictive skill in the Northern Hemisphere. J. Climate, 7, 1513-1564.
5. _, and R. E. Livezey, 1987: Classification, seasonality, and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1083-1126.
6. _, and C. F. Ropelewski, 1992: Prediction of ENSO episodes using canonical correlation analysis. J. Climate, 5, 1316-1345.
7. Bergen, R. E., and R. P. Harnack, 1982: Long-range temperature prediction using a simple analog approach. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 1083-1099.
8. Blackmon, M. L., 1976: A climatological spectral study of the 500-mb geopotential height of the Northern Hemisphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 33, 1607-1623.
9. Brankovic, C., T. N. Palmer, F. Molteni, S. Tibaldi, and U. Cubasch, 1990: Extended-range predictions with ECMWF models: Time lagged ensemble forecasting. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 116, 867-912.
10. Broomhead, D. S., and G. P. King, 1986: Extracting qualitative dynamics from experimental data. Physica D, 20, 217-236.
11. Cheng, X., and J. M. Wallace, 1993: Cluster analysis of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime 500-hPa height field: Spatial patterns. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 2674-2696.
12. Déqué, M., 1988: 10-day predictability of the Northern Hemisphere winter 500-mb height by the ECMWF operational model. Tellus, 40A, 26-36.
13. _, 1991 : Removing the model systematic error in extended range forecasting. Ann. Geophys., 6, 217-224.
14. _, and J. -F. Royer, 1992: The skill of extended-range extratropical winter dynamical forecasts. J. Climate, 5, 1346-1356.
15. _, _, and R. Stroe, 1994: Formulation of Gaussian probability forecasts based on model extended-range integrations. Tellus, 46A, 52-65.
16. Dickey, J. O., M. Ghil, and S. L. Marcus, 1991: Extratropical aspects of the 30-60 day oscillation in length-of-day and atmospheric angular momentum. J. Geophys. Res., D96, 22 643-22 658.
17. Dole, R M., and N. D. Gordon, 1983: Persistent anomalies of the extratropical Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation: Geographical distribution and regional persistence characteristics. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 1567-1586.
18. Epstein, E. S., 1969: A scoring system for probability forecasts of ranked categories. J. Appl. Meteor., 8, 985-987.
19. Folland, C. K., and A. Woodcock, 1986: Experimental monthly long-range forecasts for the United Kingdom. Part I: Description of the forecasting system. Meteor. Mag., 115, 301-318.
20. _, _, and L. D. Varah, 1986: Experimental monthly longrange forecasts for the United Kingdom. Part III: Skill of monthly forecasts. Meteor. Mag., 115, 377-393.
21. Fraedrich, K., 1986: Estimating the dimensions of weather and climate attractors. J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 419-432.
22. Gandin, L. S , and A. H. Murphy, 1992: Equitable skill scores for categorical forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 361-370.
23. Ghil, M., and K. C. Mo, 1991 : Intraseasonal oscillations in the global atmosphere. Part I: Northern Hemisphere and Tropics. J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 752-779.
24. Kalnay, E. K., and A. Dalcher, 1987: Forecasting forecast skill. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 349-356.
25. Keppenne, C. L. and M. Ghil, 1993: Adaptive filtering and prediction of noisy multivariate signals: An application to subannual varinability in atmospheric angular momentum. Int. J. Bifurcation Chaos. 3, 625-634.
26. Kimoto, M., and M. Ghil, 1993: Multiple flow regimes in the Northern Hemisphere winter. Part II: Sectorial regimes and preferred transitions. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 2645-2673.
27. Lau, K.-M., P.-J. Sheu, and L-S. Kang. 1994: Multiscale low-frequency circulation modes in the global atmosphere. J Atmos. Sci., 51, 1169-1193.
28. Livezey, R. E. 1990: Variability of skill of long-range forecasts and implications for their use and value. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 71, 300-309.
29. , and A. G. Barnston, 1988: An operational multifield analog/ antianalog prediction system for United States seasonal temperatures. I. System design and winter experiments. J. Geophys. Res., 9D, 10953-10974.
30. Lorenz, E. N., 1969: Atmospheric predictability as revealed from naturally occurring analogs. J. Atmos. Sci., 26, 636-646.
31. _, 1984: Irregularity: A Fundamental property of the atmosphere. Tellus, 36A, 98-110.
32. Maryon, R. H., and A. M. Storey, 1985: A multivariate statistical model for forecasting anomalies of half-monthly mean surface pressure. J. Climatol, 5, 561-578.
33. Michelangeli, P.-A., R. Vautard, and B. Legras, 1995: Weather regimes: Recurrence and quasi-stationarity. J Atmos. Sci., 52, 1137-1256.
34. Milton, S. F., and D. F. Richardson, 1991: 30-day dynamical forecasts at the UK Meteorological Office. Proc. of ECMWF Workshop on New Developments in Predictability, Shinfield Park, Reading, UK, European Centre tor Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, 205-245.
35. Miyakoda, K., J. Sirutis, and J. Ploshay. 1986: One-month forecast experiments-without anomaly boundary forcing. Mon. Wea. Rev., 114, 2363-2401.
36. Molteni, F., and T. N. Palmer, 1992: Predictability and finite-time instability of the Northern winter circulation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 119, 269-298.
37. , S. Tibaldi, and T. N. Palmer, 1990: Regimes in the wintertime circulation over the Northern extratropics. Part I: Observational evidence. Quart J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 116, 31-67.
38. _, L. Ferranti, T. N. Palmer, and P. Viterbo, 1993: A dynamical interpretation of the global response to equatorial Pacific SST anomalies. J. Climate, 6, 777-795.
39. Namias, J., 1959: Recent seasonal interaction between the North Pacific waters and the overlying atmospheric circulation. J. Geophys. Res., 64, 631-646.
40. Palmer, T. N., 1993: Extended-range atmospheric prediction and the Lorenz model. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74, 49-65.
41. _, and Z. Sun, 1985: A modelling and observational study of the relationship between sea surface temperatures in the north west Atlantic and the atmosphere general circulation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 111, 947-975.
42. _, and D. L. T. Anderson, 1994: The prospects for seasonal forecasting-a review paper. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 120, 755-794.
43. Plaut, G., and R. Vautard, 1994: Spells of low-frequency oscillations and weather regimes in the Northern Hemisphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 210-236.
44. Preisendorfer, R. W., 1988: Principal Component Analysis in Meteorology and Oceanography. Elsevier, 425 pp.
45. _, C. D. Mobley, and T. P. Barnett, 1988: The principal discriminant method of prediction: Theory and evaluation. J. Geophys. Res., 93D, 10815-10830.
46. Shukla, J., 1981: Predictability of time averages. Part I: Dynamical predictability of monthly means. Problems and Prospects in Long and Medium Range Weather Forecasting. D. M. Burridge and E. Källen, Eds., Springer-Verlag, 109-154.
47. Strong, C., F.-F. Jin, and M. Ghil, 1995: Intraseasonal oscillations in a barotropic model with annual cycle, and their predictability. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 2627-2642.
48. Takens, F., 1981: Detecting strange attractors in turbulence. Dynamical Systems and Turbulence. D. A. Rand and L.-S. Young, Eds., Springer, 366-381.
49. Tracton, M. S., K. Mo. W. Chen, E. Kalnay, R. Kistler, and G. White. 1989: Dynamical extended-range forecasts (DERF) at the National Meteorological Center. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 1604-1635.
50. Tukey, J., 1958: Bias and confidence in not-quite large samples. Ann. Math. Stal., 29, 614.
51. Van den Dool, H. M., 1987: A source of artificial skill in forecasts based on analogs and anti-analogs. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 26, 1278-1281.
52. _, 1994a: Long-range weather forecasts through numerical and empirical methods. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 20, 247-270.
53. _, 1994b: Searching for analogues, how long must we wait? Tellus, 46A, 314-324.
54. _, and S. Saha, 1990: Frequency dependence in forecast skill. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118, 128-137.
55. _, and Z. Toth, 1991: Why do forecasts "near normal" often fail? Wea. Forecasting, 6, 76-85.
56. Vautard, R., 1990: Multiple weather regimes over the North Atlantic: Analysis of precursors and successors. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118, 2056-2081.
57. _, and M. Ghil, 1989: Singular spectrum analysis in nonlinear dynamics with applications to paleoclimatic time series, Physica D, 35, 395-424.
58. _, and G. Plaut, 1991: Low-frequency oscillations and weather regimes in the Northern Hemisphere. Proc. ECMWF Workshop on New Developments in Predictability, Reading, UK, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
59. _, P. Yiou, and M. Ghil, 1992: Singular spectrum analysis: A toolkit for short, noisy chaotic signals. Physica D, 35, 395-424.
60. Wallace, J. M., and D. S. Gutzler, 1981: Teleconnection in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 784-812.
61. Ward, M. N., and C. K. Folland, 1991: Prediction of seasonal rainfall in the North Nordeste of Brazil using eigenvectors of sea-surface temperature. Int. J. Climatol. 11, 711-743.
62. Weickman, K. M., G. R. Lussky, and J. E. Kutzbach. 1985: intraseasonal (30-60 day) fluctuations of outgoing longwave radiation and 250-mb streamfunction during Northern winter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 941-961.