Adapting environmental management to uncertain but inevitable change

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Volumn 282, Issue 1808, 2015, Pages

  Nicol, Sam ^a   Fuller, Richard A ^b   Iwamura, Takuya ^c   Chadès, Iadine ^a  

^a CSIRO   (Australia)

^b UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND   (Australia)

^c STANFORD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Adaptation; Adaptive management; Climate change; East Asian Australasian flyway; Markov decision process; Migratory birds

Indexed keywords

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT; BIODIVERSITY; DECISION MAKING; ECOLOGICAL APPROACH; ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT; HABITAT SELECTION; MANAGEMENT PRACTICE; MIGRATORY BEHAVIOR; PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT; SPATIAL ANALYSIS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WADER; ADAPTATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; MIGRATORY SPECIES; SEA LEVEL CHANGE;

AVES;

ANIMAL; BIODIVERSITY; CHARADRIIFORMES; CLIMATE CHANGE; DECISION MAKING; ECOSYSTEM; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; PHYSIOLOGY; POPULATION MIGRATION; PROCEDURES; UNCERTAINTY;

ANIMAL MIGRATION; ANIMALS; BIODIVERSITY; CHARADRIIFORMES; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES; DECISION MAKING; ECOSYSTEM; UNCERTAINTY;

AUSTRALIA;

EID: 84929311243     PISSN: 09628452     EISSN: 14712954     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2014.2984     Document Type: Article

References (54)

1. Parmesan C, Yohe G. 2003 A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421, 37–42. (doi:10.1038/nature01286)
2. Thomas CD et al. 2004 Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427, 145–148. (doi:10.1038/nature02121)
3. Hulme PE. 2005 Adapting to climate change: is there scope for ecological management in the face of a global threat? J. Appl. Ecol. 42, 784–794. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2664.2005.01082.x)
4. Kerr RA. 2011 Time to adapt to a warming world, but where’s the science? Science 334, 1052–1053. (doi:10.1126/science.334.6059.1052)
5. Conroy MJ, Runge MC, Nichols JD, Stodola KW, Cooper RJ. 2011 Conservation in the face of climate change: the roles of alternative models, monitoring, and adaptation in confronting and reducing uncertainty. Biol. Conserv. 144, 1204–1213. (doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2010.10.019)
6. Pidgeon N, Fischhoff B. 2011 The role of social and decision sciences in communicating uncertain climate risks. Nat. Clim. Change 1, 35–41. (doi:10.1038/nclimate1080)
7. Moss RH et al. 2010 The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463, 747–756. (doi:10.1038/nature08823)
8. Dickinson R. 2012 Proceed with planning despite multiple models. Science 335, 539. (doi:10.1126/science.335.6068.539)
9. Ritten JP, Frasier WM, Bastian CT, Gray ST. 2010 Optimal rangeland stocking decisions under stochastic and climate-impacted weather. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 92, 1242–1255. (doi:10.1093/ajae/aaq052)
10. Kerr RA. 2011 Vital details of global warming are eluding forecasters. Science 334, 173–174. (doi:10.1126/science.334.6053.173)
11. Lemos M, Rood R. 2010 Climate projections and their impact on policy and practice. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Clim. Change 1, 670–682. (doi:10.1002/wcc.71)
12. Smith LA, Stern N. 2011 Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 369, 4818–4841. (doi:10.1098/rsta.2011.0149)
13. Walters CJ. 1986 Adaptive management of renewable resources. New York, NY: Macmillan Press.
14. Williams BK. 2011 Resolving structural uncertainty in natural resources management using POMDP approaches. Ecol Model. 222, 1092–1102.(doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.12.015)
15. Fackler P, Pacifici K. 2014 Addressing structural and observational uncertainty in resource management. J. Environ. Manage. 133, 27–36. (doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.11.004)
16. Springborn M, Sanchirico JN. 2013 A density projection approach for non-trivial information dynamics: adaptive management of stochastic natural resources. J. Environ. Econ. Manage. 66, 609–624. (doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2013.07.003)
17. Chades I, Sabbadin R, Carwardine J, Martin TG, Nicol S, Buffet O. 2012 MOMDPs: a solution for modelling adaptive management problems. In Proc. association for the advancement of artificial intelligence (AAAI-12) (eds B Selman, J Hoffman), pp. 267–273. Palo Alto, CA: The AAAI Press.
18. Monahan GE. 1982 Survey of partially observableMarkov decision processes: theory, models and algorithms. Manage. Sci. 28, 1–16. (doi:10.1287/mnsc.28.1.1)
19. Ong SCW, Png SW, Hsu D, Lee S. 2010 Planning under uncertainty for robotic tasks with mixed observability. Int. J. Robot. Res. 29, 1053–1068. (doi:10.1177/0278364910369861)
20. Myers JP et al. 1987 Conservation strategy for migratory species. Am. Sci. 75, 19–26.
21. Murray NJ, Clemens RS, Phinn SR, Possingham HP, Fuller RA. 2014 Tracking the rapid loss of tidal wetlands in the Yellow Sea. Front. Ecol. Environ. 12, 267–272. (doi:10.1890/130260)
22. Murray NJ, Ma Z, Fuller RA. 2015 Tidal flats of the Yellow Sea: a review of ecosystem status and anthropogenic threats. Austral Ecol. (doi:10.1111/aec.12211)
23. Iwamura T, Possingham HP, Chades I, Minton C, Murray NJ, Rogers DI, Treml EA, Fuller RA. 2013 Migratory connectivity magnifies the consequences of habitat loss from sea-level rise for shorebird populations. Proc. R. Soc. B 280, 20130325. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2013.0325)
24. Vermeer M, Rahmstorf S. 2009 Global sea level linked to global temperature. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 21 527–21 532. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0907765106)
25. Pfeffer WT, Harper JT, O’Neel S. 2008 Kinematic constraints on glacier contributions to 21st-century sea-level rise. Science 321, 1340–1343. (doi:10.1126/science.1159099)
26. Church JA, White NJ. 2006 A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L01602. (doi:10.1029/2005GL024826)
27. Nichols JD et al. 2011 Climate change, uncertainty, and natural resource management. J. Wildl. Manage. 75, 6–18. (doi:10.1002/jwmg.33)
28. Martin J, Fackler PL, Nichols JD, Lubow BC, Eaton MJ, Runge MC, Stith BM, Langtimm CA. 2011 Structured decision making as a proactive approach to dealing with sea level rise in Florida. Clim. Change 107, 185–202. (doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0085-x)
29. McDonald-Madden E, Runge M, Possingham H, Martin T. 2011 Optimal timing for managed relocation of species faced with climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 1, 261–265. (doi:10.1038/nclimate1170)
30. Iwamura T. 2012 Spatial conservation prioritisation under global threats. Brisbane, Australia: University of Queensland.
31. Wilson H, Kendall BE, Possingham HP. 2010 Variability in population abundance and the classification of extinction risk. Conserv. Biol. 25, 747–757. (doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01671.x)
32. Williams BK, Szaro RC, Shapiro CD. 2009 Adaptive management: the U.S. department of the interior technical guide. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of the Interior.
33. Williams BK. 2009 Markov decision processes in natural resources management: observability and uncertainty. Ecol. Model. 220, 830–840. (doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.12.023)
34. Poupart P. 2005 Exploiting structure to efficiently solve large scale partially observable Markov decision processes. Toronto, Canada: University of Toronto.
35. Hoey J, St-Aubin R, Hu AJ, Boutilier C. 1999 SPUDD: stochastic planning using decision diagrams. Stockholm, Sweden: Proceedings of Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence.
36. Chades I, Martin TG, Nicol S, Burgman MA, Possingham HP, Buckley YM. 2011 General rules for managing and surveying networks of pests, diseases, and endangered species. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 8323–8328. (doi:10.1073/pnas.1016846108)
37. Astrom KJ. 1965 Optimal control of Markov decision processes with incomplete state estimation. J. Math. Anal. Appl. 10, 174–205. (doi:10.1016/0022-247X(65)90154-X)
38. Iwamura T, Fuller RA, Possingham HP. 2014 Optimal management of a multispecies shorebird flyway under sea-level rise. Conserv. Biol. 28, 1710–1720.(doi:10.1111/cobi.12319)
39. Stocker T, Dahe Q, Plattner G. 2013 Climate change 2013: the physical science basis: technical summary. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
40. Lempert R, Schlesinger M, Bankes S, Andronova N. 2000 The impacts of climate variability on nearterm policy choices and the value of information. Clim. Change 45, 129–161. (doi:10.1023/A:1005697118423)
41. Costello C, Polasky S. 2004 Dynamic reserve site selection. Resour. Energy Econ. 26, 157–174. (doi:10.1016/j.reseneeco.2003.11.005)
42. Katz R. 2002 Techniques for estimating uncertainty in climate change scenarios and impact studies. Clim. Res. 20, 167–185. (doi:10.3354/cr020167)
43. New M, Hulme M. 2000 Representing uncertainty in climate change scenarios: a Monte-Carlo approach. Integr. Assess. 1, 203–213. (doi:10.1023/A:1019144202120)
44. Nicol S, Chadès I. 2012 Which states matter? An application of an intelligent discretization method to solve a continuous POMDP in conservation biology. PLoS ONE 7, e28993. (doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0028993)
45. He F. 2012 Area-based assessment of extinction risk. Ecology 93, 974–980. (doi:10.1890/11-1786.1)
46. MacKinnon J, Verkuil Y, Murray N. 2012 IUCN situtation analysis on East and Southeast Asian intertidal habitats, with particular reference to the Yellow Sea (including the Bohai Sea). Occasional paper of the IUCN Species Survival Commission No. 47. Cambridge, UK: IUCN.
47. May R. 2006 Network structure and the biology of populations. Trends Ecol. Evol. 21, 394–399. (doi:10.1016/j.tree.2006.03.013)
48. Montoya JM, Pimm SL, Sole´ RV. 2006 Ecological networks and their fragility. Nature 442, 259–264. (doi:10.1038/nature04927)
49. Regan TJ, McCarthy MA, Baxter PWJ, Panetta FD, Possingham HP. 2006 Optimal eradication: when to stop looking for an invasive plant. Ecol. Lett. 9, 759–766. (doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2006.00920.x)
50. Regan TJ, Chades I, Possingham HP. 2011 Optimal strategies for managing invasive plants in partially observable systems. J. Appl. Ecol. 48, 76–85. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2664.2010.01915.x)
51. Chades I, McDonald-Madden E, McCarthy MA, Wintle B, Linkie M, Possingham HP. 2008 When to stop managing or surveying cryptic threatened species. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 13 936–13 940. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0805265105)
52. Fahimipour AK, Hein AM. 2014 The dynamics of assembling food webs. Ecol. Lett. 17, 606–613. (doi:10.1111/ele.12264)
53. May RM. 2009 Food-web assembly and collapse: mathematical models and implications for conservation. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 364, 1643–1646. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2008.0280)
54. Dasgupta S, Laplante B, Meisner C, Wheeler D, Yan J. 2009 The impact of sea level rise on developing countries: a comparative analysis. Clim. Change 93, 379–388. (doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9499-5)