Structured decision making as a proactive approach to dealing with sea level rise in Florida

Climatic Change

Volumn 107, Issue 1, 2011, Pages 185-202

  Martin, Julien ^a   Fackler, Paul L ^c   Nichols, James D ^b   Lubow, Bruce C ^d   Eaton, Mitchell J ^b   Runge, Michael C ^b   Stith, Bradley M ^e   Langtimm, Catherine A ^e  

^a Florida Fish and Wildlife Research Institute   (United States)

^b PATUXENT WILDLIFE RESEARCH CENTER   (United States)

^c NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d Department of Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences   (United States)

^e U S GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DECISION MAKERS; DECISION PROCESS; DETRIMENTAL EFFECTS; FLORIDA; FLORIDA MANATEES; MANAGEMENT OBJECTIVES; NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT; NON-STATIONARITIES; NONSTATIONARY; NONSTATIONARY SYSTEMS; NUMERICAL EXAMPLE; PRO-ACTIVE APPROACH; SEA LEVEL RISE; SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY; STATIONARY PROCESS; SYSTEM PROCESS;

DECISION THEORY; NATURAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT; RESOURCE ALLOCATION; SEA LEVEL;

DECISION MAKING;

COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT; DECISION MAKING; ENDANGERED SPECIES; LONG-TERM CHANGE; MARINE MAMMAL; NATURAL RESOURCE; RESOURCE MANAGEMENT; SEA LEVEL CHANGE; SPECIES CONSERVATION; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

FLORIDA [UNITED STATES]; UNITED STATES;

TRICHECHUS MANATUS;

EID: 79958814572     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0085-x     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. Anderson DR (1975) Optimal exploitation strategies for an animal population in a Markovian environment: a theory and an example. Ecology 56: 1281-1297.
2. Bellman R (1957) Dynamic programming. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
3. Burgman M (2005) Risks and decisions for conservation and environmental management. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
4. Clark CW, Mangel M (2001) Dynamic state variable models in ecology. Oxford University Press, New York, NY.
5. Clemen RT, Reilly T (2001) Making hard decisions with decision tools. Duxbury, Pacific Grove, CA.
6. Edwards HH, Pollock KH, Ackerman B, Reynolds J, Powell J (2007) Components of detection probability in manatee aerial surveys during winter. J Wildl Manage 71: 2052-2060.
7. Fish and Wildlife Research Institute (2007) Florida manatee management plan. FWCC, St Petersburg, FL.
8. Fonnesbeck CJ (2005) Solving dynamic wildlife resource optimization problems using reinforcement learning. Nat Resour Model 18: 1-39.
9. Halpern BS, Regan HM, Possingham HP, McCarthy MA (2006) Accounting for uncertainty in marine reserve design. Ecol Lett 9: 2-11.
10. Hartman D (1979) Ecology and behavior of the manatee (Trichechus manatus). In: American society of mammalogists Florida special publication, vol 5, p 153.
11. IPCC (2007) The physical science basis contribution of working group I the fourth assessment report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
12. Johnson FA, Moore CT, Kendall WL, Dubowsky JA, Caithamer DF, Kelley JR, Williams BK (1997) Uncertainty and the management of mallard harvests. J Wildl Manage 61: 202-216.
13. Langtimm CA, Dorazio R, Stith BM, Doyle T (2011) A new aerial survey and hierarchical model to estimate manatee abundance. J Wildl Manage 75: 399-412.
14. Leeper DA, Flannery MS, Kelly MH (2010) Recommended minimum flows for the Homosassa River system. July 12, 2010 Peer-Review Draft for the Southwest Florida Management District. http://www. swfwmd. state. fl. us/projects/mfl/reports/PeerReviewDraftHomosassaRiverMFLsReport2010-07-12. pdf. Accessed 28 November 2010.
15. Lubow BC (1995) SDP: generalized software for solving stochastic dynamic optimization problems. Wildl Soc B 23: 738-742.
16. MacKenzie DI, Nichols JD, Royle JA, Pollock KH, Hines JE, Bailey LL (2006) Occupancy estimation and modeling: inferring patterns and dynamics of species occurrence. Elsevier, San Diego, CA.
17. Martin J, Runge MC, Nichols JD, Lubow BC, Kendall WL (2009) Structured decision making as a conceptual framework to identify thresholds for conservation and management. Ecol Appl 19: 1079-1090.
18. Martin J, Kendall WL, O'Connell AF, Simons TR, Waldstein AH, Smith GW, Schulte SA, Rikard M, Converse SJ, Runge MC (2010) Optimal control of native predators. Biol Conserv 143: 1751-1758.
19. Martin J, Fackler PL, Nichols JD, Lubow BL, Runge, MC, McIntyre CL, Lubow BL, McCluskie MC, Schmutz JA (2011) An adaptive-management framework for optimal control of hiking near Golden Eagle nests in Denali National Park. Conserv Biol 25: 316-323.
20. Maschinski J, Ross MS, Liu H, O'Brien J, von Wettberg EJ, Haskin KE (2011) Sinking ships: conservation options for endemic taxa threatened by sea-level rise. Clim Change. doi: 10. 1007/s10584-011-0083-z.
21. Melbourne BA, Hastings A (2008) Extinction risk depends strongly on factors contributing to stochasticity. Nature 454: 100-103.
22. Milly PCD, Betancourt J, Falkenmark M, Hirsch RM, Kundzewicz ZW, Lettenmaier DP, Stouffer RJ (2008) Stationarity is dead: whither water management? Science 319: 573-574.
23. Miranda MJ, Fackler PL (2002) Applied computational economics and finance. The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
24. Moore AL, Hauser CE, McCarthy, MA (2008) How we value the future affects our desire to learn. Ecol Appl 18: 1061-1069.
25. Nichols JD, Williams BK (2006) Monitoring for conservation. Trends Ecol Evol 21: 668-673.
26. Nichols JD et al (2011) Climate change, uncertainty and natural resource management. J Wildl Manage 75: 6-18.
27. Noss R (2011) Between the devil and the deep blue sea: Florida's unenviable position with respect to sea-level rise. Clim Change (this volume).
28. Park J, Obeysekera J, Irizarry M, Barnes J, Trimble P, Park-Said W (2011) Storm surge projections and implications for water management in South Florida. Clim Change. doi: 10. 1007/s10584-011-0079-8.
29. Parkinson RW, Donoghue JF (2010) Bursting the bubble of doom and adapting to SLR. Shoreline: March issue.
30. Peterman RM, Anderson JL (1999) Decision analysis: a method for taking uncertainties into account in risk-based decision making. Hum Ecol Risk Assess 5: 2431-2446.
31. RECOVER (2005) The RECOVER team's recommendations for interim targets for the comprehensive everglades restoration project. South Florida Water Management District and US Army Corps, West Palm Beach, FL.
32. Rouhani S, Sucsy P, Hall G, Osburn W, Wild M (2005) Analysis of Blue Spring discharge data to determine a minimum flow regime. Prepared for the St. Johns River Water Management District, Palatka, FL. 48 pp. + appendices. http://www. sjrwmd. com/technicalreports/pdfs/SP/SJ2007-SP17. pdf. Accessed 28 November 2010.
33. Stith BM, Reid JP, Langtimm CA, Swain ED, Doyle TJ, Slone DH, Decker JD, Soderqvist LE (2010) Temperature inverted haloclines provide winter warm-water refugia for manatees in southwest Florida. Estuar Coasts. doi: 10. 1007/s12237-010-9286-1.
34. Thrower J (2006) Adaptive management and NEPA: how a nonequilibrium view of ecosystems mandates flexible regulation. Ecol Law Q 33: 871-896.
35. Williams BK (1996) Adaptive optimization and the harvest of biological populations. Math Biosci 136: 1-20.
36. Williams BK, Johnson FA, Wilkins K (1996) Uncertainty and the adaptive management of waterfowl harvests. J Wildl Manage 60: 223-232.
37. Williams BK, Nichols JD, Conroy MJ (2002) Analysis and management of animal populations. Academic, San Diego, CA.
38. Williams BK, Szaro RC, Shapiro CD (2007) Adaptive management: the US department of the interior technical guide. US Department of the Interior, Washington, DC.
39. Yoccoz NG, Nichols JD., Boulinier T (2001) Monitoring biodiversity in space and time: concepts, methods and designs. Trends Ecol Evol 16: 446-453.