Generating synthetic daily precipitation realizations for seasonal precipitation forecasts

Journal of Hydrologic Engineering

Volumn 19, Issue 1, 2014, Pages 252-264

  Garbrecht, Jurgen D ^a   Zhang, John X ^a  

^a USDA ARS GRAZINGLANDS RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

Daily precipitation model; Precipitation; Precipitation forecast; Synthetic weather; Weather generation

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURE; CLIMATE MODELS; DECISION MAKING; FORECASTING; INFORMATION MANAGEMENT; PRECIPITATION (CHEMICAL); PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY); RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK MANAGEMENT; SOFTWARE TESTING; TIME SERIES; WATER RESOURCES; WEATHER INFORMATION SERVICES;

COOPERATIVE OBSERVER PROGRAMS; DAILY PRECIPITATIONS; NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES; PRECIPITATION FORECAST; SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECAST; SEASONAL PRECIPITATIONS; TRANSITION PROBABILITIES; USDA AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH SERVICE;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

NUMERICAL MODEL; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); SEASONAL VARIATION; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 84929092799     PISSN: 10840699     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000774     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. Baigorria, G. A., Hansen, J. W., Ward, N., Jones, J. W., and O'Brien, J. J. (2008). "Assessing predictability of cotton yields in the southeastern United States based on regional atmospheric circulation and surface temperatures". J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 47(1), 76-91.
2. Chen, J., Brissette, F. P., and Leconte, R. (2010). "A daily stochastic weather generator for preserving low-frequency of climate variability". J. Hydrol., 388(3-4), 480-490.
3. Dubrovsky, M., Buchtele, J., and Zalud, Z. (2004). "High-frequency and low-frequency variability in stochastic daily weather generator and its effect on agricultural and hydrological modelling". Clim. Change, 63(1-2), 145-179.
4. Garbrecht, J. D. (2012). "Random, but uniform please: Requirements for synthetic precipitation generation for computer simulation in agriculture". Appl. Eng. Agric., 28(2), 207-217.
5. Garbrecht, J. D., and Busteed, P. R. (2011). SYNTOR, a synthetic daily weather generator, version 3.5, user manual, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Grazinglands Research Laboratory, GRL 1-11, Washington, DC, (Oct. 1, 2013).
6. Garbrecht, J. D., Schneider, J. M., and Zhang, X. J. (2004). "Downscaling NOAA's seasonal climate forecasts to predict hydrologic response". 84th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, 18th Conf. on Hydrology (CD-ROM), American Meteorological Society, Boston.
7. Garbrecht, J. D., Zhang, X. C., Schneider, J. M., and Steiner, J. L. (2010). "Utility of seasonal climate forecasts in management of winter-wheat grazing". Appl. Eng. Agric., 26(5), 855-866.
8. Haan, C. T., Allen, D. M., and Street, J. O. (1976). "A Markov chain model of daily precipitation". Water Resour. Res., 12(3), 443-449.
9. Hammer, G. L., Nicholls, N., and Mitchell, C. (2000). Applications of seasonal climate forecasting in agriculture and natural ecosystems, Kluver Academic, Dordrecht, Netherlands.
10. Hanson, C. L., Cumming, K. A., Woolhiser, D. A., and Richardson, C. W. (1994). "Microcomputer program for daily weather simulation in the contiguous United States". U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, ARS-114, Washington, DC.
11. Johnson, G. L., Hanson, C. L., Hardegree, S. P., and Ballard, E. B. (1996). "Stochastic weather simulation: Overview and analysis of two commonly used models". J. Appl. Meteorol., 35(10), 1878-1896.
12. Katz, R. W. (1996). "Use of conditional stochastic models to generate climate change scenarios". Clim. Change, 32(3), 237-255.
13. Kilsby, C. G., et al. (2007). "A daily weather generator for use in climate change studies". Environ. Model. Software, 22(12), 1705-1719.
14. Liu, J., Williansm, J. R., Wang, X., and Yang, H. (2009). "Using MODAWEC to generate daily weather data for the EPIC model". Environ. Model. Software, 24(5), 655-664.
15. Nicks, A. D., and Gander, G. A. (1994). "CLIGEN: A weather generator for climate inputs to water resources and other models". Proc. Fifth Int. Conf. on Computers in Agriculture, American Society of Agricultural Engineers, St. Joseph, MI, 903-909.
16. Nicks, A. D., Lane, L. J., and Gander, G. A. (1995). "Weather generator". Chapter 2, USDA-Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP), Hillslope Profile and Watershed Model Documentation, NSERL Rep. #10, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service (USDA-ARS)-National Soil Erosion Research Laboratory, West Lafayette, IN.
17. Ott, R. L., and Longnecker, M. (2001). An introduction to statistical methods and data analysis, 5th Ed., Thomson Learning, Pacific Grove, CA.
18. Parlange, M. B., and Katz, R. W. (2000). "An extended version of the Richardson model for simulating daily weather variables". J. Appl. Meteorol., 39(5), 610-622.
19. Richardson, C. W. (1981). "Stochastic simulation of daily precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation". Water Resour. Res., 17(1), 182-190.
20. Richardson, C. W. (1982). "A comparison of three distributions for the generation of daily rainfall amounts". Statistical Analysis of Rainfall and Runoff, a Part of the Proc. of the Int. Symp. on Rainfall-Runoff Modeling, Water Resources Publications, Littleton, CO.
21. Richardson, C. W. (1985). "Weather simulation for crop management models". Trans. ASAE, 28(5), 1602-1606.
22. Richardson, C. W., and Wright, D. A. (1984). "WGEN: A model for generating daily weather variables". Publication ARS-8, USDA Agricultural Research Service, Temple, TX.
23. Schuol, J., and Abbaspour, K. C. (2007). "Using monthly weather statistics to generate daily data in a SWAT model application to West Africa". Ecol. Model., 201(3-4), 301-311.
24. Soltani, A., and Hoogenboom, G. (2003). "Minimum data requirements for parameter estimation of stochastic weather generators". Clim. Res., 25(2), 109-119.
25. Wallis, T. W. R. (1993). "A comparison between weather simulated within the erosion/productivity impact calculator (EPIC) and observed data". Int. J. Environ. Stud., 45(1), 1-12.
26. Waymire, E., and Gupta, V. K. (1981). "The mathematical structure of rainfall representations 1. A review of the stochastic rainfall models". Water Resour. Res., 17(5), 1261-1272.
27. Wilks, D. A., and Murphy, A. H. (1985). "The value of seasonal precipitation forecasts in a haying/pasturing problem in western Oregon". Month. Weather Rev., 113(10), 1738-1745.
28. Wilks, D. A., and Murphy, A. H. (1986). "A decision-analytic study of the joint value of seasonal precipitation and temperature forecast in choice-of-crop problem". Atmos.-Ocean, 24(4), 353-368.
29. Wilks, D. S. (1989). "Conditioning stochastic daily precipitation models on total monthly precipitation". Water Resour. Res., 25(6), 1429-1439.
30. Wilks, D. S. (1992). "Adapting stochastic weather generation algorithms for climate change studies". Clim. Change, 22(1), 67-84.
31. Wilks, D. S., and Wilby, R. L. (1999). "The weather generation game: A review of stochastic weather models". Progr. Phys. Geog., 23(3), 329-357.
32. Williams, J. R., Jones, C. A., and Dyke, P. T. (1984). "A modeling approach to determining the relationship between erosion and soil productivity". Trans. ASAE, 27(1), 129-144.
33. Woolhiser, D. A., Keefer, T. O., and Redmond, K. T. (1993). "Southern oscillation effects on daily precipitation in the southwestern United States". Water Resour. Res., 29(4), 1287-1295.
34. Woolhiser, D. A., and Roldan, J. (1982). "Stochastic daily precipitation models. 2. A comparison of distribution amounts". Water Resour. Res., 18(5), 1461-1468.
35. Zhang, X. C. (2003). "Assessing seasonal climate impact on water resources and crop production using CLIGEN and WEPP models". Trans. ASAE, 46(3), 685-693.
36. Zhang, X. C., Nearing, M. A., Garbrecht, J. D., and Steiner, J. L. (2004). "Downscaling monthly forecasts to simulate impacts of climate change on soil erosion and wheat production". Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J., 68(4), 1376-1385.