Downscaling monthly forecasts to simulate impacts of climate change on soil erosion and wheat production

Soil Science Society of America Journal

Volumn 68, Issue 4, 2004, Pages 1376-1385

  Zhang, X C ^a   Nearing, M A ^b   Garbrecht, J D ^a   Steiner, J L ^a  

^a USDA ARS GRAZINGLANDS RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

^b AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH SERVICE   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CROPS; HARVESTING; RAIN; SOIL CONSERVATION; WATER CONSERVATION; WEATHER FORECASTING;

SOIL EROSION; TILLAGE;

EROSION;

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CROP YIELD; FORECASTING METHOD; SOIL EROSION;

NORTH AMERICA; OKLAHOMA [UNITED STATES]; UNITED STATES;

TRITICUM; TRITICUM AESTIVUM;

EID: 3142685435     PISSN: 03615995     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2136/sssaj2004.1376     Document Type: Article

References (26)

1. Boardman, J., and D.T. Favis-Mortlock. 1993. Climate change and soil erosion in Britain. Geograph. J. 159:179-183.
2. Favis-Mortlock, D.T., R. Evans, J. Boardman, and T.M. Harris. 1991. Climate change, winter wheat yield, and soil erosion on the English South Downs. Agric. Syst. 37:415-433.
3. Favis-Mortlock, D.T., and M.R. Savabi. 1996. Shifts in rates and spatial distribution of soil erosion and deposition under climate change. p. 529-560. In M.G. Anderson and S.M. Brooks (ed.) Advances in hillslope processes. Wiley, Chichester, UK.
4. Flanagan, D.C., and M.A. Nearing. (ed.) 1995. USDA-Water Erosion Prediction Project: Hillslope Profile and Watershed Model Documentation. NSERL Report No. 10. USDA-ARS Nat. Soil Erosion Research Lab., West Lafayette, IN.
5. Hewitson, B. 2003. Developing perturbations for climate change impact assessments. Trans. Am. Geophys. Union. EOS 84:337-348.
6. Katz, R.W. 1985. Probabilistic Models. p. 261-288. In A.H. Murphy and R.W. Katz (ed.) Probability, Statistics, and Decision Making in the Atmospheric Sciences. Westview.
7. Katz, R.W. 1996. Use of conditional stochastic models to generate climate change scenarios. Clim. Change 32:237-255.
8. IPCC. 2000. The Emissions Scenarios of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Available online at http://www.cru.uea. ac.uk/link/emissions/ sres.html (verified 27 Feb. 2004).
9. IPCC Working Group I. 2001. Climate Change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, New York.
10. Lobell, D.B., and G.P. Asner. 2003. Climate and management contributions to recent trends in U.S. agricultural yields. Science 299: 1032.
11. Mavromatis, T., and P.D. Jones. 1998. Comparison of climate change scenario construction methodologies for impact assessment studies. Agric. For. Meteorol. 91:51-67.
12. Mearns, L.O., C. Rosenzweig, and R. Goldberg. 1997. Mean and variance change in climate scenarios: Methods, agricultural applications, and measures of uncertainty. Clim. Change 35:367-396.
13. Nicks, A.D., and G.A. Gander. 1994. CLIGEN: A weather generator for climate inputs to water resource and other models. p. 3-94. In Proc. 5th Int. Conf. on Computers in Agriculture, 1994. ASAE, St. Joseph, MI.
14. Pruski, F.F., and M.A. Nearing. 2002a. Runoff and soil-loss responses to changes in precipitation: A computer simulation study. J. Soil Water Conserv. 57:7-16.
15. Pruski, F.F. and M.A. Nearing. 2002b. Climate-induced changes in erosion during the 21st century for eight U.S. locations. Water Resour. Res. 38:doi:10.1029/2001WR000493.
16. Richardson, C.W., and D.A. Wright. 1984. WGEN: A model for generating daily weather variables. ARS-8, USDA, ARS, Washington, DC.
17. Rosenzweig, C., and M.L. Parry. 1994. Potential impact of climate change on world food supply. Nature 367:133-137.
18. Savabi, M.R., J.G. Arnold, and A.D. Nicks. 1993. Impact of global climate change on hydrology and soil erosion: A modeling approach. p. 3-18. In Y. Eckstein and A. Zaporozec (ed.) Proc. of industrial and agricultural impact of environmental and climatic change on global and regional hydrology. Water Environment Federation, Alexandria, VA.
19. Semenov, M.A., and J.R. Porter. 1995. Climatic variability and the modeling of crop yields. Agric. For. Meteorol. 73:265-283.
20. SWCS. 2003. Conservation implications of climate change: Soil erosion and runoff from cropland. A report from the Soil and Water Conservation Society. Available online at www.swcs.org/docs/climate %20change-final.pdf (verified 1 Mar. 2004). Soil Water Conserv. Soc., Ankeny, IA.
21. U.S. NAST. 2001. Climate change impacts on the United States: The potential consequences of climate variability and change. Foundation Rep. U.S. Global Change Res. Program, Washington, DC.
22. Wilks, D.S. 1992. Adapting stochastic weather generation algorithms for climate change studies. Clim. Change 22:67-84.
23. Zhang, X.C. 2003. Assessing seasonal climatic impact on water resources and crop production using CLIGEN and WEPP models. Trans. ASAE 46:685-693.
24. Zhang, X.C. 2004. Calibration, refinement, and application of WEPP model for simulating climatic impact on wheat production. Trans. ASAE (In press).
25. Zhang, X.C., and J.D. Garbrecht. 2002. Precipitation retention and soil erosion under varying climate, land use, tillage and cropping systems. J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 38:1241-1253.
26. Zhang, X.C., and J.D. Garbrecht. 2003. Evaluation of CLIGEN precipitation parameters and their implication on WEPP runoff and erosion prediction. Trans. ASAE 46:311-320.