Estimating the United States demand for influenza antivirals and the effect on severe influenza disease during a potential pandemic

Clinical Infectious Diseases

Volumn 60, Issue , 2015, Pages S30-S41

  O'Hagan, Justin J ^a,b   Wong, Karen K ^a   Campbell, Angela P ^a   Patel, Anita ^c   Swerdlow, David L ^a   Fry, Alicia M ^a   Koonin, Lisa M ^d   Meltzer, Martin I ^e  

^a NATIONAL CENTER FOR IMMUNIZATION AND RESPIRATORY DISEASES   (United States)

^b Ihrc Inc   (United States)

^c Strategic National Stockpile Program   (United States)

^d NATL CENTER FOR INFECTIOUS DISEASES   (United States)

^e NATIONAL CENTER FOR EMERGING AND ZOONOTIC INFECTIOUS DISEASES   (United States)

Author keywords

antivirals; death; hospitalization; influenza; neuraminidase inhibitors

Indexed keywords

ANTIVIRUS AGENT; SIALIDASE INHIBITOR;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; ARTICLE; CHILD; DISEASE SEVERITY; HEALTH BEHAVIOR; HOSPITALIZATION; HUMAN; INFANT; INFLUENZA VIRUS A H7N9; MEDICATION COMPLIANCE; MIDDLE AGED; MORTALITY; NEWBORN; NONHUMAN; PANDEMIC INFLUENZA; PRESCHOOL CHILD; PRESCRIPTION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RISK ASSESSMENT; SCHOOL CHILD; TREATMENT OUTCOME; UNITED STATES; YOUNG ADULT; DISASTER PLANNING; INFECTION CONTROL; INFLUENZA, HUMAN; PANDEMICS; PATHOGENICITY; PROCEDURES; SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION; THEORETICAL MODEL;

ANTIVIRAL AGENTS; COMMUNICABLE DISEASE CONTROL; DISASTER PLANNING; HUMANS; INFLUENZA A VIRUS, H7N9 SUBTYPE; INFLUENZA, HUMAN; MODELS, THEORETICAL; PANDEMICS; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84928962856     PISSN: 10584838     EISSN: 15376591     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/cid/civ084     Document Type: Article

References (63)

1. World Health Organization. Human infection with influenza A(H7N9) virus in China. Available at: http://www.who.int/csr/don/2013-04-01/en/index.html. Accessed 5 September 2013.
2. World Health Organization. Human infection with avian influenza A H7N9) virus - update. Available at: http://www.who.int/csr/don/2013-08-11/en/index.html. Accessed 5 September 2013.
3. Li Q, Zhou L, Zhou M, et al. Preliminary Report: Epidemiology of the Avian nfluenza A (H7N9) Outbreak in China. N Engl J Med 2014; 370:520-32.
4. Qi X, Qian YH, Bao CJ, et al. Probable person to person transmission of ovel avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in Eastern China, 2013: epidemiological nvestigation. BMJ 2013; 347:f4752.
5. HHS Pandemic Influenza Plan. Available at: http://www.flu.gov/lanning-preparedness/federal/hhspandemicinfluenzaplan.pdf. Accessed September 2013.
6. Public Health Agency of Canada. The Canadian Pandemic Influenza lan for the Health Sector. Available at: http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/cpip-pclcpi/index-eng.php. Accessed 30 August 2013.
7. Iskander J, Strikas RA, Gensheimer KF, Cox NJ, Redd SC. Pandemic influenza lanning, United States, 1978-2008. Emerg Infect Dis 2013; 9:879-85.
8. World Health Organization. Pandemic influenza preparedness and response, HO guidance document. Available at: http://www.who.int/influenza/resources/documents/pandemic-guidance-04-2009/en/index.html. Accessed 19 November 2013.
9. Fiore AE, Fry A, Shay D, Gubareva L, Bresee JS, Uyeki TM. Antiviral gents for the treatment and chemoprophylaxis of influenza-recommendations f the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices ACIP). MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2011; 60:1-24.
10. Management of Influenza in the Southern Hemisphere Trialists Study roup. Randomised trial of efficacy and safety of inhaled zanamivir in reatment of influenza A and B virus infections. Lancet 1998; 352:1877-81.
11. Hayden FG, Osterhaus AD, Treanor JJ, et al. Efficacy and safety of the euraminidase inhibitor zanamivir in the treatment of influenzavirus nfections. GG167 Influenza Study Group. N Engl J Med 1997; 337: 74-80.
12. Hedrick JA, Barzilai A, Behre U, et al. Zanamivir for treatment of symptomatic nfluenza A and B infection in children five to twelve years of ge: a randomized controlled trial. Pediatr Infect Dis J 2000; 19:410-7.
13. Lalezari J, Campion K, Keene O, Silagy C. Zanamivir for the treatment f influenza A and B infection in high-risk patients: a pooled analysis of andomized controlled trials. Arch Intern Med 2001; 161:212-7.
14. Monto AS, Fleming DM, Henry D, et al. Efficacy and safety of the neuraminidase nhibitor zanamivirin the treatment of influenza A and B irus infections. J Infect Dis 1999; 180:254-61.
15. Monto AS, Webster A, Keene O. Randomized, placebo-controlled studies f inhaled zanamivir in the treatment of influenza A and B: pooled fficacy analysis. J Antimicrob Chemother 1999; 44(suppl B):23-9.
16. Nicholson KG, Aoki FY, Osterhaus AD, et al. Efficacy and safety of oseltamivir n treatment of acute influenza: a randomised controlled trial. euraminidase Inhibitor Flu Treatment Investigator Group. Lancet 000; 355:1845-50.
17. Treanor JJ, Hayden FG, Vrooman PS, et al. Efficacy and safety of the ral neuraminidase inhibitor oseltamivir in treating acute influenza: a andomized controlled trial. US Oral Neuraminidase Study Group. AMA 2000; 283:1016-24.
18. Whitley RJ, Hayden FG, Reisinger KS, et al. Oral oseltamivir treatment f influenza in children. Pediatr Infect Dis J 2001; 20:127-33.
19. Hsu J, Santesso N, Mustafa R, et al. Antivirals for treatment of influenza: systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies. Ann Interned 2012; 156:512-24.
20. Muthuri SG, Myles PR, Venkatesan S, Leonardi-Bee J, Nguyen- an-Tam JS. Impact of neuraminidase inhibitor treatment on outcomes f public health importance during the 2009-2010 influenza A(H1N1) andemic: a systematic review and meta-analysis in hospitalized patients. Infect Dis 2013; 207:553-63.
21. Reed C, Biggerstaff M, Finelli L, et al. Novel framework for assessing epidemiologic ffects of influenza epidemics and pandemics. Emerg Infect is 2013; 19:85-91.
22. Meltzer MI, Gambhir M, Atkins CY, Swerdlow DL. Standardizing cenarios to assess the need to respond to an influenza pandemic. lin Infect Dis 2015; 60(suppl 1):S1-8.
23. Foy HM, Cooney MK, Allan I. Longitudinal studies of types A and B nfluenza among Seattle schoolchildren and families, 1968-74. J Infect is 1976; 134:362-9.
24. Welliver R, Monto AS, Carewicz O, et al. Effectiveness of oseltamivir in reventing influenza in household contacts: a randomized controlled rial. JAMA 2001; 285:748-54.
25. Biggerstaff M, Jhung M, Kamimoto L, Balluz L, Finelli L. Self-reported nfluenza-like illness and receipt of influenza antiviral drugs during the 009 pandemic, United States, 2009-2010. Am J Public Health 2012; 02:e21-6.
26. Biggerstaff M, Jhung MA, Reed C, Fry AM, Balluz L, Finelli L. Influenza- ike illness, the time to seek healthcare, and influenza antiviral receipt uring the 2010-11 influenza season-United States. J Infect Dis 2014; 10:535-44.
27. Atkins CY, Patel A, Taylor TH Jr, et al. Estimating effect of antiviral rug use during pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, United States. merg Infect Dis 2011; 17:1591-8.
28. Hernan MA, Lipsitch M. Oseltamivir and risk of lower respiratory tract omplications in patients with flu symptoms: a meta-analysis of eleven andomized clinical trials. Clin Infect Dis 2011; 53:277-9.
29. Adisasmito W, Chan PK, Lee N, et al. Effectiveness of antiviral treatment n human influenza A(H5N1) infections: analysis of a Global Patient egistry. J Infect Dis 2010; 202:1154-60.
30. Lessler J, Reich NG, Brookmeyer R, Perl TM, Nelson KE, Cummings A. Incubation periods of acute respiratory viral infections: a systematic eview. Lancet Infect Dis 2009; 9:291-300.
31. Fry AM, Shay DK, Holman RC, Curns AT, Anderson LJ. Trends in hospitalizations or pneumonia among persons aged 65 years or older in he United States, 1988-2002. JAMA 2005; 294:2712-9.
32. Jackson ML, Neuzil KM, Thompson WW, et al. The burden of community- cquired pneumonia in seniors: results of a population-based tudy. Clin Infect Dis 2004; 39:1642-50.
33. Williams BG, Gouws E, Boschi-Pinto C, Bryce J, Dye C. Estimates of orld-wide distribution of child deaths from acute respiratory infections. ancet Infect Dis 2002; 2:25-32.
34. Emergency Compounding of an Oral Suspension from Tamiflu Capsules. vailable at: http://www.fda.gov/downloads/Drugs/DrugSafety/InformationbyDrugClass/UCM147992.pdf. Accessed 26 April 2013.
35. Nicholson KG, Abrams KR, Batham S, et al. Randomised controlled trial nd health economic evaluation of the impact of diagnostic testing for nfluenza, respiratory syncytial virus and Streptococcus pneumoniae infection n the management of acute admissions in the elderly and high-risk 8- to 64-year-olds. Health Technol Assess 2014; 18:1-274, vii-viii.
36. Falagas ME, Vouloumanou EK, Baskouta E, Rafailidis PI, Polyzos K, Rello J. Treatment options for 2009 H1N1 influenza: evaluation of the ublished evidence. Int J Antimicrob Agents 2010; 35:421-30.
37. Fielding JE, Bergeri I, Higgins N, et al. The spread of influenza (H1N1)pdm09 in Victorian school children in 2009: implications or revised pandemic planning. PLoS One 2013; 8:e57265.
38. Viasus D, Pano-Pardo JR, Pachon J, et al. Timing of oseltamivir administration nd outcomes in hospitalized adults with pandemic 2009 influenza (H1N1) virus infection. Chest 2011; 140:1025-32.
39. Greer AL, Schanzer D. Using a dynamic model to consider optimal antiviral tockpile size in the face of pandemic influenza uncertainty. PLoS ne 2013; 8:e67253.
40. Carrasco LR, Lee VJ, Chen MI, Matchar DB, Thompson JP, Cook AR. Strategies for antiviral stockpiling for future influenza pandemics: a global pidemic-economic perspective. J R Soc Interface 2011; 8:1307-13.
41. Kelso JK, Halder N, Milne GJ. The impact of case diagnosis coverage and diagnosis delays on the effectiveness of antiviral strategies in mitigating pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009. PLoS One 2010; 5:e13797.
42. Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Fraser C, Cajka JC, Cooley PC, Burke DS. Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic. Nature 2006; 442:448-52.
43. van Genugten ML, Heijnen ML, Jager JC. Pandemic influenza and ealthcare demand in the Netherlands: scenario analysis. Emerg Infect is 2003; 9:531-8.
44. Germann TC, Kadau K, Longini IM Jr, Macken CA. Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2006; 103:5935-40.
45. Dimitrov NB, Goll S, Hupert N, Pourbohloul B, Meyers LA. Optimizing tactics for use of the U.S. antiviral strategic national stockpile for pandemic influenza. PLoS One 2011; 6:e16094.
46. Yang Y, Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr. A Bayesian model for evaluating influenza antiviral efficacy in household studies with asymptomatic infections. Biostatistics 2009; 10:390-403.
47. Muthuri SG, Venkatesan S, Myles PR, et al. Effectiveness of neuraminidase inhibitors in reducing mortality in patients admitted to hospital with influenza A H1N1pdm09 virus infection: a metaanalysis of individual participant data. Lancet Respir Med 2014; 2:395-404.
48. Koonin LM, Hanfling D. Broadening access to medical care during a severe influenza pandemic: the CDC nurse triage line project. Biosecur Bioterror 2013; 11:75-80.
49. North F, Varkey P, Bartel GA, Cox DL, Jensen PL, Stroebel RJ. Can an office practice telephonic response meet the needs of a pandemic? Telemed J E Health 2010; 16:1012-6.
50. Goldstein E, Miller JC, O'Hagan JJ, Lipsitch M. Pre-dispensing of antivirals to high-risk individuals in an influenza pandemic. Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2010; 4:101-12.
51. Saha S, Dean B, Teutsch S, et al. Efficiency of points of dispensing for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccination, Los Angeles County, California, USA, 2009. Emerg Infect Dis 2014; 20:590-5.
52. Black AJ, House T, Keeling MJ, Ross JV. Epidemiological consequences of household-based antiviral prophylaxis for pandemic influenza. J R Soc Interface 2013; 10:20121019.
53. Halloran ME, Ferguson NM, Eubank S, et al. Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2008; 105:4639-44.
54. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Influenza Antiviral Drug Resistance. Available at: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/qa/antiviralresistance.htm. Accessed 18 November 2013.
55. World Health Organization. Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 - update 66. Available at: http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009-09-18/en/index.html. Accessed11 November 2013.
56. Kageyama T, Fujisaki S, Takashita E, et al. Genetic analysis of novel avian A(H7N9) influenza viruses isolated from patients in China, February to April 2013. Euro Surveill 2013; 18:20453.
57. Blasio BF, Iversen BG, Tomba GS. Effect of vaccines and antivirals during the major 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic wave in Norway-and the influence of vaccination timing. PLoS One 2012; 7:e30018.
58. Greer AL. Can informal social distancing interventions minimize demand for antiviral treatment during a severe pandemic? BMC Public Health 2013; 13:669.
59. Halder N, Kelso JK, Milne GJ. Cost-effective strategies for mitigating a future influenza pandemic with H1N1 2009 characteristics. PLoS One 2011; 6:e22087.
60. Kelso JK, Halder N, Postma MJ, Milne GJ. Economic analysis of pandemic influenza mitigation strategies for five pandemic severity categories. BMC Public Health 2013; 13:211.
61. Lee VJ, Lye DC, Wilder-Smith A. Combination strategies for pandemic influenza response - a systematic review of mathematical modeling studies. BMC Med 2009; 7:76.
62. Milne GJ, Halder N, Kelso JK. The cost effectiveness of pandemic influenza interventions: a pandemic severity based analysis. PLoS One 2013; 8:e61504.
63. Department of Health and Human Services & Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Interim Pre-pandemic Planning Guidance: Community Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Mitigation in the United States - Early, Targeted, Layered Use of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions. Available at: http://www.flu.gov/planning-preparedness/community/community-mitigation.pdf. Accessed 26 September 2013.