The impact of case diagnosis coverage and diagnosis delays on the effectiveness of antiviral strategies in mitigating pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009

PLoS ONE

Volumn 5, Issue 11, 2010, Pages

  Kelso, Joel K ^a   Halder, Nilimesh ^a   Milne, George J ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA   (Australia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANTIVIRUS AGENT;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGE DISTRIBUTION; AGED; ARTICLE; CHILD; CLINICAL EFFECTIVENESS; CONTROL STRATEGY; CONTROLLED STUDY; DELAYED DIAGNOSIS; DIAGNOSTIC VALUE; DISEASE DURATION; DISEASE SEVERITY; DRUG EFFICACY; HEALTH CARE POLICY; HOUSEHOLD; HUMAN; INCIDENCE; INFANT; INFECTION PREVENTION; INFECTION SENSITIVITY; INFLUENZA A (H1N1); INTERMETHOD COMPARISON; INTERVENTION STUDY; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MULTIPLE CYCLE TREATMENT; PANDEMIC INFLUENZA; POPULATION MODEL; PRESCHOOL CHILD; SCHOOL CHILD; SCHOOL HEALTH SERVICE; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; SYMPTOM; THERAPY DELAY; TREATMENT PLANNING; VIRUS INFECTIVITY; VIRUS SHEDDING; VIRUS TRANSMISSION; ALGORITHM; AUSTRALIA; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; DRUG EFFECT; INFLUENZA; INFLUENZA VIRUS A H1N1; METHODOLOGY; MIDDLE AGED; NEWBORN; OUTCOME ASSESSMENT; PANDEMIC; SEASON; TIME;

ADULT; AGE DISTRIBUTION; AGED; ALGORITHMS; ANTIVIRAL AGENTS; CHILD; CHILD, PRESCHOOL; HUMANS; INCIDENCE; INFANT; INFANT, NEWBORN; INFLUENZA A VIRUS, H1N1 SUBTYPE; INFLUENZA, HUMAN; MIDDLE AGED; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; OUTCOME ASSESSMENT (HEALTH CARE); PANDEMICS; SEASONS; TIME FACTORS; WESTERN AUSTRALIA; YOUNG ADULT;

EID: 78149480519     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0013797     Document Type: Article

References (41)

1. Australian Commonwealth Department of Health and Ageing (2009) Australian Health Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza. Available: http://www.flupandemic.gov.au/internet/panflu/publishing.nsf/Content/ahm ppi-1 Accessed 11th September 2009.
2. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (2009) Pandemic Influenza Plan. Available: http://www.hhs.gov/pandemicflu/plan/ Accessed 11th September 2009.
3. United Kingdom Department of Health (2007) Pandemic flu: A national framework for responding to an influenza pandemic. Available: http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/Publicationsandstatistics/Publications/Publicati onsPolicyAndGuidance/DH_080734 Accessed 11th September 2009.
4. Nicoll A, Coulombier D (2009) Europe's initial experience with pandemic (H1N1) 2009 -mitigation and delaying policies and practices. Euro Surveill 14: pii=19279.
5. Yang Y, Longini IM, Jr., Halloran ME (2006) Design and evaluation of prophylactic interventions using infectious disease incidence data from close contact groups. Appl Statist 55: 317-330.
6. Treanor JJ, Hayden FG, Vrooman PS, Barbarash R, Bettis R, et al. (2000) Efficacy and safety of the oral neuraminidase inhibitor oseltamivir in treating acute influenza: a randomized controlled trial. JAMA 283: 1016-1024.
7. Lee VJ, Chen MI (2007) Effectiveness of neuraminidase inhibitors for preventing staff absenteeism during pandemic influenza. Emerg Infect Dis 13: 449-457.
8. Lee VJ, Phua KH, Chen MI, Chow A, Ma S, et al. (2006) Economics of neuraminidase inhibitor stockpiling for pandemic influenza, Singapore. Emerg Infect Dis 12: 95-102.
9. Ferguson NM, Cummings DAT, Fraser C, Cajka JC, Cooley PC, et al. (2006) Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic. Nature 442: 448-452.
10. Germann TC, Kadau K, Longini IM, Jr., Macken CA (2006) Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States. PNAS 103: 5935-5941.
11. McCaw JM, McVernon J (2007) Prophylaxis or treatment? Optimal use of an antiviral stockpile during an influenza pandemic. Math Biosci 209: 336-360.
12. Arinaminphathy N, McLean AR (2007) Antiviral treatment for the control of pandemic influenza: some logistical constraints. J R Soc Interface 5: 545-553.
13. Halder N, Kelso J, Milne G (2010) Analysis of the effectiveness of interventions used during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. BMC Public Health 10: 168.
14. Fraser C, Christl DA, Cauchemez S, Hanage WP, Van Kerkhove MD, et al. (2009) Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1): early findings. Science 324: 1557-1561.
15. McBryde E, Bergeri I, van Gemert C, Rotty J, Headley E, et al. (2009) Early transmission characteristics of influenza A (H1N1) v in Australia: Victorian state, 16 May-3 June 2009. Euro Surveill 14: pii = 19363.
16. Nishiura H, Castillo-Chavez C, Safan M, Chowell G (2009) Transmission potential of the new influenza A (H1N1) virus and its age-specificity in Japan. Euro Surveill 14: pii = 19227.
17. Nishiura H, Wilson N, Baker M (2009) Estimating the reproduction number of the novel influenza A virus (H1N1) in a Southern Hemisphere setting: preliminary estimate in New Zealand. Journal of the New Zealand Medical Association 122: 73-77.
18. Munayco C, Gomez J, Laguna-Torres V, Arrasco J, Kochel T, et al. (2009) Epidemiological and transmissibility analysis of influenza A (H1N1) v in a southern hemisphere setting: Peru. Euro Surveill 14: pii =19299.
19. ECDC (2009) ECDC Risk Assessment 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic Version 7. Stockholm: European Center for Disease Control.
20. Carrat F, Vergu E, Ferguson NM, Lemaitre M, Cauchemez S, et al. (2008) Time lines of infection and disease in human influenza: a review of volunteer challenge studies. Am J Epidemiol 167: 775-785.
21. Milne GJ, Kelso JK, Kelly HA, Huband ST, McVernon J (2008) A small community model for the transmission of infectious diseases: comparison of school closure as an intervention in individual-based models of an influenza pandemic. PLoS ONE 3: e4005.
22. Kelso JK, Milne GJ, Kelly HA (2009) Simulation suggests that rapid activation of social distancing can arrest epidemic development due to a novel strain of influenza. BMC Public Health 9: 117.
23. Milne G, Kelso J, Kelly H (2010) Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic with pre-pandemic H5N1 vaccines. J R Soc Interface 7: 573-586.
24. Monto A, Koopman J, Longini IMJ (1985) Tecumseh study of illnes. XIII. Influenza infection and disease, 1976-1981. Am J Epidemiol 121: 811-822.
25. Fox JP, Hall CE, Cooney MK, Foy HM (1982) Influenzavirus infections in Seattle families, 1975-1979. Am J Epidemiol 116: 212-227.
26. De Serres G, Rouleau I, Hamelin M-E, Quarch C, Skowronksi D, et al. (2010) Contagious period for pandemic (H1N1) 2009. Emerg Infect Dis 16: 783-788.
27. Moscona A (2005) Neuraminidase inhibitors for influenza. N Engl J Med 353: 1363-1373.
28. Longini I, Halloran M, Nizam A, Yang Y (2004) Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents. Am J Epidemiol 159: 623-633.
29. Miller E, Hoschler K, Hardelid P, Stanford E, Andrews N, et al. (2010) Incidence of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 infection in England: a crosssectional serological study. The Lancet 375: 1100-1108.
30. Baker M, Wilson N, Huang Q, Paine S, Lopez L, et al. (2009) Pandemic influenza A(H1N1)v in New Zealand: the experience from April to August 2009. Euro Surveill 14: pii = 19319.
31. Halder N, Kelso J, Milne G (2010) Developing guidelines for school closure interventions to be used during a future influenza pandemic. BMC Infect Dis 10: 221.
32. Nishiura H, Chowell G, Safan M, Castillo-Chavez C (2010) Pros and cons of estimating the reproduction number from early epidemic growth rate of influenza A(H1N1) 2009. Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling 7.
33. Glass RJ, Glass LM, Beyeler WE, Min HJ (2006) Targeted social distancing design for pandemic influenza. Emerg Infect Dis 12: 1671-1681.
34. Hayden F, Treanor J, Fritz R, Lobo M, Betts R, et al. (1999) Use of the oral neuraminidase inhibitor oseltamivir in experimental human influenza: randomized controlled trials for prevention and treatment. JAMA 282: 1240.
35. Ciofi degli Atti ML, Merler S, Rizzo C, Ajelli M, Massari M, et al. (2008) Mitigation measures for pandemic influenza in Italy: an individual based model considering different scenarios. PLoS ONE 3: 1-11.
36. Ferguson NM, Cummings DAT, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Riley S, et al. (2005) Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature 437: 209-214.
37. Longini IM, Jr., Nizam A, Xu S, Ungchusak K, Hanshaoworakul W, et al. (2005) Containing pandemic influenza at the source. Science 309: 1083-1088.
38. Wu JT, Riley S, Fraser C, Leung GM (2006) Reducing the impact of the next influenza pandemic using household-based public health interventions. PLoS Medicine 3: 1532-1540.
39. Wu JT, Leung GM, Lipsitch M, Cooper BS, Riley S (2009) Hedging against antiviral resistance during the next influenza pandemic using small stockpiles of an alternative chemotherapy. PLoS Medicine 6: e1000085.
40. Chin J, Koh G, Lee D-Y (2009) How necessary is a fast testkit for mitigation of pandemic flu? J R Soc Interface: in press.
41. Smith DW, Speers DJ, Bowman RA (2010) Pandemic influenza testing at the coalface: time for reassessment? Med J Aust 192: 541-542