메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 42, Issue 7, 2015, Pages 2417-2425

Msultiannual forecasts of Atlantic U.S. tropical cyclone wind damage potential

Author keywords

Atlantic variability; climate forecasting; decadal predictions; hurricanes; sub polar gyre; tropical cyclones

Indexed keywords

FORECASTING; SEA LEVEL; STORMS; TROPICS; WIND POWER;

EID: 84928703117     PISSN: 00948276     EISSN: 19448007     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL063303     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (20)

References (39)
  • 1
    • 34447633042 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Increasing the reliability of reliability diagrams
    • Bröcker, J., and, L. A. Smith, (2007), Increasing the reliability of reliability diagrams, Weather Forecasting, 22 (3), 651-661, doi: 10.1175/WAF993.1.
    • (2007) Weather Forecasting , vol.22 , Issue.3 , pp. 651-661
    • Bröcker, J.1    Smith, L.A.2
  • 2
    • 84899975021 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multi-year prediction skill of Atlantic hurricane activity in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts
    • Caron, L.-P., C. G. Jones, and, F. Doblas-Reyes, (2014), Multi-year prediction skill of Atlantic hurricane activity in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts, Clim. Dyn., 42, 2675-2690, doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1773-1.
    • (2014) Clim. Dyn. , vol.42 , pp. 2675-2690
    • Caron, L.-P.1    Jones, C.G.2    Doblas-Reyes, F.3
  • 3
    • 84928703173 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Large-scale control of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity as a function of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation phase
    • Caron, L.-P., M. Boudreault, and, C. L. Bruyère, (2015), Large-scale control of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity as a function of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation phase, Clim. Dyn., 44, 1801-1821, doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2186-5.
    • (2015) Clim. Dyn. , vol.44 , pp. 1801-1821
    • Caron, L.-P.1    Boudreault, M.2    Bruyère, C.L.3
  • 4
    • 84898631373 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • As the wind blows? Understanding hurricane damages at the local level through a case study analysis
    • Czajkowski, J., and, J. Done, (2014), As the wind blows? Understanding hurricane damages at the local level through a case study analysis, Weather Clim. Soc., 6, 202-217, doi: 10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00024.1.
    • (2014) Weather Clim. Soc. , vol.6 , pp. 202-217
    • Czajkowski, J.1    Done, J.2
  • 5
    • 33645219567 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models - Part 1: Formulation and simulation characteristics
    • Delworth, T. L., et al. (2006), GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models-Part 1: Formulation and simulation characteristics, J. Clim., 19, 643-674, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3629.1.
    • (2006) J. Clim. , vol.19 , pp. 643-674
    • Delworth, T.L.1
  • 7
    • 79960770060 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multi-year predictability of the tropical Atlantic atmosphere driven by the high latitude North Atlantic Ocean
    • L14701, doi: 10.1029/2011GL047949
    • Dunstone, N. J., D. M. Smith, and, R. Eade, (2011), Multi-year predictability of the tropical Atlantic atmosphere driven by the high latitude North Atlantic Ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L14701, doi: 10.1029/2011GL047949.
    • (2011) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.38
    • Dunstone, N.J.1    Smith, D.M.2    Eade, R.3
  • 8
    • 84879751361 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Anthropogenic aerosol forcing of Atlantic tropical storms
    • Dunstone, N. J., D. M. Smith, B. B. B. Booth, L. Hermanson, and, R. Eade, (2013), Anthropogenic aerosol forcing of Atlantic tropical storms, Nat. Geosci., 6 (7), 534-539, doi: 10.1038/ngeo1854.
    • (2013) Nat. Geosci. , vol.6 , Issue.7 , pp. 534-539
    • Dunstone, N.J.1    Smith, D.M.2    Booth, B.B.B.3    Hermanson, L.4    Eade, R.5
  • 9
    • 84867101035 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the assessment of near-surface global temperature and North Atlantic multi-decadal variability in the ENSEMBLES decadal hindcast
    • García-Serrano, J., and, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, (2012), On the assessment of near-surface global temperature and North Atlantic multi-decadal variability in the ENSEMBLES decadal hindcast, Clim. Dyn., 39, 2025-2040, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1413-1.
    • (2012) Clim. Dyn. , vol.39 , pp. 2025-2040
    • García-Serrano, J.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2
  • 10
    • 84925507202 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Added-value from initialization in predictions of Atlantic multi-decadal variability
    • García-Serrano, J., V. Guemas, and, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, (2015), Added-value from initialization in predictions of Atlantic multi-decadal variability, Clim. Dyn., 44, 2539-2555, doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2370-7.
    • (2015) Clim. Dyn. , vol.44 , pp. 2539-2555
    • García-Serrano, J.1    Guemas, V.2    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.3
  • 11
    • 0035919625 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications
    • Goldenberg, S. B., C. W. Landsea, A. M. Mestas-Nunez, and, W. M. Gray, (2001), The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications, Science, 293 (5529), 474-479.
    • (2001) Science , vol.293 , Issue.5529 , pp. 474-479
    • Goldenberg, S.B.1    Landsea, C.W.2    Mestas-Nunez, A.M.3    Gray, W.M.4
  • 12
    • 0034025893 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments
    • Gordon, C., C. Cooper, C. Senior, H. Banks, J. Gregory, T. Johns, J. Mitchell, and, R. Wood, (2000), The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments, Clim. Dyn., 16, 147-168.
    • (2000) Clim. Dyn. , vol.16 , pp. 147-168
    • Gordon, C.1    Cooper, C.2    Senior, C.3    Banks, H.4    Gregory, J.5    Johns, T.6    Mitchell, J.7    Wood, R.8
  • 15
    • 84900676121 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 5 year prediction of the number of hurricanes which make U. S. Landfall
    • edited by J. B. Elsner and T. H. Jagger, Springer, New York, doi: 10.1007/978-0-387-09410-6-5
    • Jewson, S., E. Bellone, S. Khare, T. Laepple, M. Lonfat, A. O. Shay, J. Penzer, and, K. Coughlin, (2009), 5 year prediction of the number of hurricanes which make U. S. landfall, in Hurricanes and Climate Change, edited by, J. B. Elsner, and, T. H. Jagger, pp. 73-99, Springer, New York, doi: 10.1007/978-0-387-09410-6-5.
    • (2009) Hurricanes and Climate Change , pp. 73-99
    • Jewson, S.1    Bellone, E.2    Khare, S.3    Laepple, T.4    Lonfat, M.5    Shay, A.O.6    Penzer, J.7    Coughlin, K.8
  • 16
    • 0029768948 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project
    • Kalnay, E., et al. (1996), The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77 (3), 437-471, doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2.
    • (1996) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.77 , Issue.3 , pp. 437-471
    • Kalnay, E.1
  • 18
    • 53649092172 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multidecadal variability in North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity
    • Klotzbach, P. J., and, W. M. Gray, (2008), Multidecadal variability in North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, J. Clim., 21 (15), 3929-3935, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2162.1.
    • (2008) J. Clim. , vol.21 , Issue.15 , pp. 3929-3935
    • Klotzbach, P.J.1    Gray, W.M.2
  • 19
    • 33845638685 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate impacts of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation
    • L17706, doi: 10.1029/2006GL026242
    • Knight, J. R., C. K. Folland, and, A. A. Scaife, (2006), Climate impacts of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L17706, doi: 10.1029/2006GL026242.
    • (2006) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.33
    • Knight, J.R.1    Folland, C.K.2    Scaife, A.A.3
  • 20
    • 84920667419 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The JRA-55 reanalysis: General specifications and basic characteristics
    • Kobayashi, S., et al. (2015), The JRA-55 reanalysis: General specifications and basic characteristics, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 93, 5-48, doi: 10.2151/jmsj.2015-001.
    • (2015) J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. , vol.93 , pp. 5-48
    • Kobayashi, S.1
  • 21
    • 34250724711 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A more general framework for understanding Atlantic hurricane variability and trends
    • Kossin, J. P., and, D. J. Vimont, (2007), A more general framework for understanding Atlantic hurricane variability and trends, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 88 (11), 1767-1781, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-88-11-1767.
    • (2007) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.88 , Issue.11 , pp. 1767-1781
    • Kossin, J.P.1    Vimont, D.J.2
  • 22
    • 84884941860 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Atlantic hurricane database uncertainty and presentation of a new database format
    • Landsea, C. W., and, J. L. Franklin, (2013), Atlantic hurricane database uncertainty and presentation of a new database format, Mon. Weather Rev., 141 (10), 3576-3592, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-12-00254.1.
    • (2013) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.141 , Issue.10 , pp. 3576-3592
    • Landsea, C.W.1    Franklin, J.L.2
  • 23
    • 84870049578 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Two tales of initializing decadal climate predictions experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model
    • Matei, D., H. Pohlmann, J. Jungclaus, W. Müller, H. Haak, and, J. Marotzk, (2012), Two tales of initializing decadal climate predictions experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model, J. Clim., 25, 8502-8523, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00633.1.
    • (2012) J. Clim. , vol.25 , pp. 8502-8523
    • Matei, D.1    Pohlmann, H.2    Jungclaus, J.3    Müller, W.4    Haak, H.5    Marotzk, J.6
  • 24
    • 84893858451 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decadal climate predictions: An update from the trenches
    • Meehl, G. A., et al. (2014), Decadal climate predictions: An update from the trenches, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, 243-267, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1.
    • (2014) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.95 , pp. 243-267
    • Meehl, G.A.1
  • 25
    • 80053904283 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300
    • Meinshausen, M., et al. (2011), The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300, Clim. Change, 109 (1-2), 213-241, doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z.
    • (2011) Clim. Change , vol.109 , Issue.12 , pp. 213-241
    • Meinshausen, M.1
  • 26
    • 84906333388 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting a decadal shift in North Atlantic climate variability using the GFDL forecast system
    • Msadek, R., et al. (2014), Predicting a decadal shift in North Atlantic climate variability using the GFDL forecast system, J. Clim., 27 (17), 6472-6496, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00476.1.
    • (2014) J. Clim. , vol.27 , Issue.17 , pp. 6472-6496
    • Msadek, R.1
  • 27
    • 84883160351 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictable climate impacts of the decadal changes in the ocean in the 1990s
    • Robson, J., R. Sutton, and, D. Smith, (2013), Predictable climate impacts of the decadal changes in the ocean in the 1990s, J. Clim., 26 (17), 6329-6339, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00827.1.
    • (2013) J. Clim. , vol.26 , Issue.17 , pp. 6329-6339
    • Robson, J.1    Sutton, R.2    Smith, D.3
  • 28
    • 17844368320 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal prediction of hurricane activity reaching the coast of the United States
    • Saunders, M. A., and, A. S. Lea, (2005), Seasonal prediction of hurricane activity reaching the coast of the United States, Nature, 434 (7036), 1005-1008.
    • (2005) Nature , vol.434 , Issue.7036 , pp. 1005-1008
    • Saunders, M.A.1    Lea, A.S.2
  • 29
    • 78649887315 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Skilful multi-year predictions of Atlantic hurricane frequency
    • Smith, D. M., R. Eade, N. J. Dunstone, D. Fereday, J. M. Murphy, H. Pohlmann, and, A. a. Scaife, (2010), Skilful multi-year predictions of Atlantic hurricane frequency, Nat. Geosci., 3 (12), 846-849, doi: 10.1038/ngeo1004.
    • (2010) Nat. Geosci. , vol.3 , Issue.12 , pp. 846-849
    • Smith, D.M.1    Eade, R.2    Dunstone, N.J.3    Fereday, D.4    Murphy, J.M.5    Pohlmann, H.6
  • 30
    • 84888065733 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions
    • Smith, D. M., et al. (2013), Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions, Clim. Dyn., 41 (11-12), 2875-2888, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1600-0.
    • (2013) Clim. Dyn. , vol.41 , Issue.1112 , pp. 2875-2888
    • Smith, D.M.1
  • 31
    • 84892460804 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comments on "multiyear predictions of North Atlantic hurricane frequency: Promise and limitations"
    • Smith, D. M., N. J. Dunstone, R. Eade, D. Fereday, L. Hermanson, J. M. Murphy, H. Pohlmann, N. Robinson, and, A. A. Scaife, (2014), Comments on "Multiyear predictions of North Atlantic hurricane frequency: Promise and limitations", J. Clim., 27 (1), 487-489, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00220.1.
    • (2014) J. Clim. , vol.27 , Issue.1 , pp. 487-489
    • Smith, D.M.1    Dunstone, N.J.2    Eade, R.3    Fereday, D.4    Hermanson, L.5    Murphy, J.M.6    Pohlmann, H.7    Robinson, N.8    Scaife, A.A.9
  • 32
    • 45349109008 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006)
    • Smith, T. M., R. W. Reynolds, T. C. Peterson, and, J. Lawrimore, (2008), Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006), J. Clim., 21 (10), 2283-2296, doi: 10.1175/2007JCLI2100.1.
    • (2008) J. Clim. , vol.21 , Issue.10 , pp. 2283-2296
    • Smith, T.M.1    Reynolds, R.W.2    Peterson, T.C.3    Lawrimore, J.4
  • 33
    • 84878975627 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multi-year predictions of North Atlantic hurricane frequency: Promise and limitations
    • Vecchi, G. A., et al. (2013), Multi-year predictions of North Atlantic hurricane frequency: Promise and limitations, J. Clim., 26, 5337-5357, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00464.1.
    • (2013) J. Clim. , vol.26 , pp. 5337-5357
    • Vecchi, G.A.1
  • 34
    • 84856948633 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • North Atlantic Power Dissipation Index (PDI) and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE): Statistical modeling and sensitivity to sea surface temperature changes
    • Villarini, G., and, G. A. Vecchi, (2012), North Atlantic Power Dissipation Index (PDI) and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE): Statistical modeling and sensitivity to sea surface temperature changes, J. Clim., 25 (2), 625-637, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00146.1.
    • (2012) J. Clim. , vol.25 , Issue.2 , pp. 625-637
    • Villarini, G.1    Vecchi, G.A.2
  • 35
    • 34250773508 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Atlantic meridional mode and hurricane activity
    • L07709, doi: 10.1029/2007GL029683
    • Vimont, D. J., and, J. P. Kossin, (2007), The Atlantic meridional mode and hurricane activity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L07709, doi: 10.1029/2007GL029683.
    • (2007) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.34
    • Vimont, D.J.1    Kossin, J.P.2
  • 37
    • 78650547976 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improved climate simulation by MIROC5: Mean states, variability, and climate sensitivity
    • Watanabe, M., et al. (2010), Improved climate simulation by MIROC5: Mean states, variability, and climate sensitivity, J. Clim., 23, 6312-6335, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3679.1.
    • (2010) J. Clim. , vol.23 , pp. 6312-6335
    • Watanabe, M.1
  • 38
    • 84903641333 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dependence of US hurricane economic loss on maximum wind speed and storm size
    • Zhai, A. R., and, J. H. Jiang, (2014), Dependence of US hurricane economic loss on maximum wind speed and storm size, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 064019, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/6/064019.
    • (2014) Environ. Res. Lett. , vol.9 , pp. 064019
    • Zhai, A.R.1    Jiang, J.H.2
  • 39
    • 33845622400 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes
    • L17712, doi: 10.1029/2006GL026267
    • Zhang, R., and, T. L. Delworth, (2006), Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L17712, doi: 10.1029/2006GL026267.
    • (2006) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.33
    • Zhang, R.1    Delworth, T.L.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.