메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 31, Issue 3, 2015, Pages 992-1007

Can we vote with our tweet? On the perennial difficulty of election forecasting with social media

(1)  Huberty, Mark a  

a NONE   (United States)

Author keywords

Elections.; Evaluating forecasts.; Model selection.; Social media; Surveys.

Indexed keywords


EID: 84925356925     PISSN: 01692070     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.08.005     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (67)

References (50)
  • 1
    • 84907020953 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Birds of the same feather tweet together: Bayesian ideal point estimation using Twitter data
    • Barberá, P. (2012). Birds of the same feather tweet together: Bayesian ideal point estimation using Twitter data. APSA 2012 annual meeting paper.
    • (2012) APSA 2012 annual meeting paper
    • Barberá, P.1
  • 2
    • 84954247247 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting and interpolating state-level polling using Twitter textual data
    • Working paper, Northeastern University
    • Beauchamp, N. (2013). Predicting and interpolating state-level polling using Twitter textual data. Working paper, Northeastern University.
    • (2013)
    • Beauchamp, N.1
  • 4
    • 85016073645 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Don't feed the trolls! Managing troublemakers in magazines' online communities
    • Binns A. Don't feed the trolls! Managing troublemakers in magazines' online communities. Journalism Practice 2012, 6(4):547-562.
    • (2012) Journalism Practice , vol.6 , Issue.4 , pp. 547-562
    • Binns, A.1
  • 8
    • 84890018550 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sampling cell phone only households: A comparison of demographic and behavioral characteristics from ABS and cell phone samples
    • Boyle J., Fleeman A., Kennedy C., Lewis F., Weiss A. Sampling cell phone only households: A comparison of demographic and behavioral characteristics from ABS and cell phone samples. Survey Practice 2013, 5(1).
    • (2013) Survey Practice , vol.5 , Issue.1
    • Boyle, J.1    Fleeman, A.2    Kennedy, C.3    Lewis, F.4    Weiss, A.5
  • 9
    • 84904261953 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Do online advertisements increase political candidates' name recognition or favorability? Evidence from randomized field experiments
    • Broockman D.E., Green D.P. Do online advertisements increase political candidates' name recognition or favorability? Evidence from randomized field experiments. Political Behavior 2013, 1-27.
    • (2013) Political Behavior , pp. 1-27
    • Broockman, D.E.1    Green, D.P.2
  • 10
    • 84873655668 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • When Google got flu wrong
    • Butler D. When Google got flu wrong. Nature 2013, 494(7436):155.
    • (2013) Nature , vol.494 , Issue.7436 , pp. 155
    • Butler, D.1
  • 11
    • 84857002657 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Elections and the regression discontinuity design: Lessons from close US House races, 1942-2008
    • Caughey D., Sekhon J.S. Elections and the regression discontinuity design: Lessons from close US House races, 1942-2008. Political Analysis 2011, 19(4):385-408.
    • (2011) Political Analysis , vol.19 , Issue.4 , pp. 385-408
    • Caughey, D.1    Sekhon, J.S.2
  • 12
    • 84862835806 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting the present with Google trends
    • Choi H., Varian H. Predicting the present with Google trends. Economic Record 2012, 88(s1):2-9.
    • (2012) Economic Record , vol.88 , Issue.S1 , pp. 2-9
    • Choi, H.1    Varian, H.2
  • 13
    • 84874101690 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing the cell phone challenge to survey research in 2010
    • Technical report, The Pew Research Center
    • Christian, L., Keeter, S., Purcell, K., & Smith, A. (2010). Assessing the cell phone challenge to survey research in 2010. Technical report, The Pew Research Center.
    • (2010)
    • Christian, L.1    Keeter, S.2    Purcell, K.3    Smith, A.4
  • 16
    • 84888180739 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • More tweets, more votes: Social media as a quantitative indicator of political behavior
    • Working paper, Indiana University
    • DiGrazia, J., McKelvey, K., Bollen, J., & Rojas, F. (2013). More tweets, more votes: Social media as a quantitative indicator of political behavior. Working paper, Indiana University.
    • (2013)
    • DiGrazia, J.1    McKelvey, K.2    Bollen, J.3    Rojas, F.4
  • 17
    • 84870441160 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • I wanted to predict elections with Twitter and all I got was this lousy paper: a balanced survey on election prediction using Twitter data
    • arXiv preprint
    • Gayo-Avello, D. (2012). I wanted to predict elections with Twitter and all I got was this lousy paper: a balanced survey on election prediction using Twitter data. arXiv preprint . arxiv:1204.6441.
    • (2012)
    • Gayo-Avello, D.1
  • 20
    • 84880655688 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Text as data: The promise and pitfalls of automatic content analysis methods for political texts
    • Grimmer J., Stewart B.M. Text as data: The promise and pitfalls of automatic content analysis methods for political texts. Political Analysis 2013, 21(3):267-297.
    • (2013) Political Analysis , vol.21 , Issue.3 , pp. 267-297
    • Grimmer, J.1    Stewart, B.M.2
  • 21
    • 84867936007 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How Target figured out a teen girl was pregnant before her father did
    • Forbes.com, 16 February
    • Hill, K. (2012). How Target figured out a teen girl was pregnant before her father did. Forbes.com, 16 February.
    • (2012)
    • Hill, K.1
  • 22
    • 84888192987 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multi-cycle forecasting of congressional elections with social media
    • In Workshop on politics, elections, and data (PLEAD) 2013
    • Huberty, M. (2013). Multi-cycle forecasting of congressional elections with social media. In Workshop on politics, elections, and data (PLEAD) 2013.
    • (2013)
    • Huberty, M.1
  • 23
    • 84860196341 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Why the Pirate Party won the German election of 2009 or the trouble with predictions: A response to Tumasjan, A., Sprenger, T.O., Sander, P.G., & Welpe, I.M. "Predicting elections with Twitter: What 140 characters reveal about political sentiment"
    • Jungherr A., Jürgens P., Schoen H. Why the Pirate Party won the German election of 2009 or the trouble with predictions: A response to Tumasjan, A., Sprenger, T.O., Sander, P.G., & Welpe, I.M. "Predicting elections with Twitter: What 140 characters reveal about political sentiment". Social Science Computer Review 2012, 30(2):229-234.
    • (2012) Social Science Computer Review , vol.30 , Issue.2 , pp. 229-234
    • Jungherr, A.1    Jürgens, P.2    Schoen, H.3
  • 24
    • 33845779335 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Gauging the impact of growing nonresponse on estimates from a national RDD telephone survey
    • Keeter S., Kennedy C., Dimock M., Best J., Craighill P. Gauging the impact of growing nonresponse on estimates from a national RDD telephone survey. Public Opinion Quarterly 2006, 70(5):759-779.
    • (2006) Public Opinion Quarterly , vol.70 , Issue.5 , pp. 759-779
    • Keeter, S.1    Kennedy, C.2    Dimock, M.3    Best, J.4    Craighill, P.5
  • 25
    • 84867412233 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing the representativeness of public opinion surveys
    • Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. May 15, 2012. Technical report
    • Kohut, A., Keeter, S., Doherty, C., Dimock, M., & Christian, L. (2012). Assessing the representativeness of public opinion surveys. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. May 15, 2012. Technical report.
    • (2012)
    • Kohut, A.1    Keeter, S.2    Doherty, C.3    Dimock, M.4    Christian, L.5
  • 26
    • 0003725885 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Code: And other laws of cyberspace
    • Basic books
    • Lessig, L. (1999). Code: And other laws of cyberspace. Basic books.
    • (1999)
    • Lessig, L.1
  • 27
    • 77958185132 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Online relationship management in a presidential campaign: A case study of the Obama campaign's management of its internet-integrated grassroots effort
    • Levenshus A. Online relationship management in a presidential campaign: A case study of the Obama campaign's management of its internet-integrated grassroots effort. Journal of Public Relations Research 2010, 22(3):313-335.
    • (2010) Journal of Public Relations Research , vol.22 , Issue.3 , pp. 313-335
    • Levenshus, A.1
  • 30
    • 84892704954 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Is the sample good enough? Comparing data from Twitter's Streaming API with Twitter's Firehose
    • Morstatter F., Pfeffer J., Liu H., Carley K.M. Is the sample good enough? Comparing data from Twitter's Streaming API with Twitter's Firehose. Proceedings of ICWSM 2013.
    • (2013) Proceedings of ICWSM
    • Morstatter, F.1    Pfeffer, J.2    Liu, H.3    Carley, K.M.4
  • 31
    • 84881262309 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Social influence bias: A randomized experiment
    • Muchnik L., Aral S., Taylor S.J. Social influence bias: A randomized experiment. Science 2013, 341(6146):647-651.
    • (2013) Science , vol.341 , Issue.6146 , pp. 647-651
    • Muchnik, L.1    Aral, S.2    Taylor, S.J.3
  • 37
    • 84888142671 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting the 2011 Dutch senate election results with Twitter
    • Association for Computational Linguistics
    • Sang E.T.K., Bos J. Predicting the 2011 Dutch senate election results with Twitter. Proceedings of the workshop on semantic analysis in social media 2012, 53-60. Association for Computational Linguistics.
    • (2012) Proceedings of the workshop on semantic analysis in social media , pp. 53-60
    • Sang, E.T.K.1    Bos, J.2
  • 38
    • 84887267670 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Inside the secret world of the data crunchers who helped Obama win
    • 7 November
    • Scherer M. Inside the secret world of the data crunchers who helped Obama win. Time 2012, 7 November.
    • (2012) Time
    • Scherer, M.1
  • 39
    • 84872874203 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Agenda-setting, priming, and framing revisited: Another look at cognitive effects of political communication
    • Scheufele D.A. Agenda-setting, priming, and framing revisited: Another look at cognitive effects of political communication. Mass Communication and Society 2000, 3(2-3):297-316.
    • (2000) Mass Communication and Society , vol.3 , Issue.2-3 , pp. 297-316
    • Scheufele, D.A.1
  • 40
    • 33847336903 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Framing, agenda setting, and priming: The evolution of three media effects models
    • Scheufele D.A., Tewksbury D. Framing, agenda setting, and priming: The evolution of three media effects models. Journal of Communication 2007, 57(1):9-20.
    • (2007) Journal of Communication , vol.57 , Issue.1 , pp. 9-20
    • Scheufele, D.A.1    Tewksbury, D.2
  • 42
    • 84875757160 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The cost of racial animus on a black presidential candidate: Using Google search data to find what surveys miss
    • Working paper, Harvard University
    • Stephens-Davidowitz, S. (2013). The cost of racial animus on a black presidential candidate: Using Google search data to find what surveys miss. Working paper, Harvard University.
    • (2013)
    • Stephens-Davidowitz, S.1
  • 45
    • 84876846718 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Facebook: The making of 1 billion users
    • 4 October
    • Vance A. Facebook: The making of 1 billion users. Bloomberg BusinessWeek 2012, 4 October.
    • (2012) Bloomberg BusinessWeek
    • Vance, A.1
  • 46
    • 84991945033 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mail as an alternative to random-digit dial in a survey of young adults
    • Viera L., Medway R.L., Turner S.R., Marsh S.M. Mail as an alternative to random-digit dial in a survey of young adults. Survey Practice 2013, 4(1).
    • (2013) Survey Practice , vol.4 , Issue.1
    • Viera, L.1    Medway, R.L.2    Turner, S.R.3    Marsh, S.M.4
  • 47
    • 78049348541 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • "Yes we can": How online viewership, blog discussion, campaign statements, and mainstream media coverage produced a viral video phenomenon
    • Wallsten K. "Yes we can": How online viewership, blog discussion, campaign statements, and mainstream media coverage produced a viral video phenomenon. Journal of Information Technology and Politics 2010, 7(2-3):163-181.
    • (2010) Journal of Information Technology and Politics , vol.7 , Issue.2-3 , pp. 163-181
    • Wallsten, K.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.