Simulation of urban expansion patterns by integrating auto-logistic regression, Markov chain and cellular automata models

Journal of Environmental Planning and Management

Volumn 58, Issue 6, 2015, Pages 1113-1136

  Liu, Yaobin ^a   Dai, Lu ^a   Xiong, Huanhuan ^a  

^a NANCHANG UNIVERSITY   (China)

Author keywords

auto logistic regression; cellular automata; eco risk assessment; Markov chain; urban expansion

Indexed keywords

EID: 84925236100     PISSN: 09640568     EISSN: 13600559     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/09640568.2014.916612     Document Type: Article

References (65)

1. Alberti, M., D. Booth, K. Hill, B. Coburn, C. Avolio, S. Coe, and D. Spirandelli, 2007. “The Impact of Urban Patterns on Aquatic Ecosystems: An Empirical Analysis in Puget Lowland Sub-basins.” Landscape Urban Planning 80: 345–361.
2. Allan, J.D. 2004. “Landscapes and Riverscapes: The Influence of Land Use on Stream Ecosystems.” Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 35: 257–284.
3. Amiri, B.J., and K. Nakane, 2009. “Modeling the Linkage Between River Water Quality and Landscape Metrics in the Chugoku District of Japan.” Water Resources Management 23: 931–956.
4. Augustin, N.H., M.A. Mugglestone, and S.T. Buckland, 1996. “An Autologistic Model for the Spatial Distribution of Wildlife.” Applied Geography 33: 339–347.
5. Bagan, H., and Y. Yamagata, 2012. “Landsat Analysis of Urban Growth: How Tokyo Became the World's Largest Megacity During the Last 40 Years.” Remote Sensing of Environment 127: 210–222.
6. Batty, M., and P. Longley, 1994. Fractal Cities: A Geometry of Form and Function. 1st ed. San Diego, CA: Academic Press.
7. Benito, P.R., J.A. Cuevas, R.B. delaParra, F. Prieto, J.M.G. delBarrio, and M.A. Zavala, 2010. “Land Use Change in a Mediterranean Metropolitan Region and its Periphery: Assessment of Conservation Policies Through CORINE Land Cover Data and Markov Models.” Forest Systems 19: 315–328.
8. Bhatta, B., S. Saraswati, and D. Bandyopadhyay, 2010. “Urban Sprawl Measurement from Remote Sensing Data.” Applied Geography 30: 731–740.
9. Bingham, G., R. Bishop, M. Brody, D. Bromley, E. Clark, W. Cooper, R. Costanza, 1995. “Issues in Ecosystem Valuation: Improving Information for Decision-Making.” Ecological Economics 14 (2): 73–90.
10. Boyd, J. 2008. “Location, Location, Location: The Geography of Ecosystem Services.” Resources 170: 10–15.
11. Cecchini, A., and P. Rizzi, 2001. “Is urban gaming simulation useful?” Simulation and Gaming 32 (4): 507–521.
12. Chang, H., 2008. “Spatial Analysis of Water Quality Trends in the Han River Basin, South Korea.” Water Research 42: 3285–3304.
13. Clancy, D., J.E. Tanner, and S. McWilliam. 2010. “Quantifying Parameter Uncertainty in a Coral Reef Model Using Metropolis-Coupled Markov Chain Monte Carlo.” Ecological Modelling 221: 1337–1347.
14. Costanza, R., R. d’Arge, R. de Groot, S. Farber, M. Grasso, B. Hannon, K. Limburg, 1997. “The Value of the World's Ecosystem Services and Natural Capital.” Nature 387: 253–260.
15. Couclelis, H. 1985. “Cellular Worlds: A Framework for Modeling Micro–Macro Dynamics.” Environment and Planning A 17: 585–596.
16. Couclelis, H. 1997. “From Cellular Automata to Urban Models: New Principles for Model Development and Implementation.” Environment and Planning B: Planning & Design 24: 165–174.
17. Dubovyk, O., R. Sliuzas, and J. Flacke. 2011. “Spatio-temporal Modelling of Informal Settlements Development in Sancaktepe District, Istanbul, Turkey.” ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing 66 (2): 235–246.
18. Galic, N., A. Schmolke, V. Forbes, H. Bavecod, and P.J. van den Brink. 2012. “The Role of Ecological Models in Linking Ecological Risk Assessment to Ecosystem Services in Agroecosystems.” Science of the Total Environment 415: 93–100.
19. Gillham, O. 2002. The Limitless City: A Primer on the Urban Sprawl Debate. Washington, DC: Island Press.
20. Glaeser, E.L., and M.E. Kahn. 2004. “Sprawl and Urban Growth.” In Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, Edition 1, Volume 4, Chapter 56, edited by J.V. Henderson and J.F. Thisse, 2481–2527. Amsterdam: Elsevier.
21. Graham, R.L., C.T. Hunsaker, R.V. O’Neill, and B.L. Jackson. 1991. “Ecological Risk Assessment at the Regional Scale.” Ecological Applications 1 (2): 196–206.
22. Guan, D.J., H.F. Li, T. Inohae, W.C. Su, T. Nagaie, and K. Hokao. 2011. “Modeling Urban Land Use Change by the Integration of Cellular Automaton and Markov Model.” Ecological Modelling 222: 3761–3772.
23. Han, J., Y. Hayashi, X. Cao, and H. Imura. 2009. “Application of an Integrated System Dynamics and Cellular Automata Model for Urban Growth Assessment: A Case Study of Shanghai, China.” Landscape and Urban Planning 91: 133–141.
24. He, J., Y. Liu, Y. Yu, W. Tang, W. Xiang, and D. Liu. 2013. “A Counterfactual Scenario Simulation Approach for Assessing the Impact of Farmland Preservation Policies on Urban Sprawl and Food Security in a Major Grain-Producing Area of China.” Applied Geography 37: 127–138.
25. ’s Urban Fringe: Evidence from Point Process Modeling.” Urban Geography 31 (8): 1100–1117.
26. Hu, Z., and C. Lo. 2007. “Modeling Urban Growth in Atlanta Using Logistic Regression.” Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 31, 667–688.
27. Huang, B., L. Zhang, and B. Wu. 2009. “Spatiotemporal Analysis of Rural–Urban Land Conversion.” International Journal of Geographical Information Science 23 (3): 379–398.
28. Jiang, B., and X. Yao, eds. 2010. Geospatial Analysis and Modelling of Urban Structure and Dynamics. Dordrecht: Springer. ISBN 9048185718.
29. Jokar Arsanjani, J., M. Helbich, W. Kainz, and A. Darvishi. 2013. “Integration of Logistic Regression, Markov Chain and Cellular Automata Models to Simulate Urban Expansion: The Case of Tehran.” International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 21: 265–275.
30. Jokar Arsanjani, J., W. Kainz, and A. Mousivand. 2011. “Tracking Dynamic Land-Use Change Using Spatially Explicit Markov Chain Based on Cellular Automata: The Case of Tehran.” International Journal of Image and Data Fusion 2: 329–345.
31. Kamusoko, C., M. Aniya, B. Adi, and M. Manjoro. 2009. “Rural Sustainability Under Threat in Zimbabwe – Simulation of Future Land Use/Cover Changes in the Bindura District Based on the Markov-Cellular Automata Model.” Applied Geography 29: 435–447.
32. King, R.S., M.E. Baker, D.F. Whigham, D.E. Weller, T.E. Jordan, P.F. Kazyak, and M.K. Hurd. 2005. “Spatial Considerations for Linking Watershed Land Cover to Ecological Indicators in Streams.” Ecological Applications 15: 137–153.
33. Koomen, E., J. Stillwell, A. Bakema, and H.J. Scholten, 2007. Modelling Land-Use Change: Progress and Applications. Dordrecht: Springer.
34. Koomen, E., D. Vasco, J.E.C. Dekkers, and P. Rietveld. 2012. “A Utility-Based, Multisector Framework for Local Scale Land-Use Modeling.” Paper presented at the workshop on complexity modeling for urban structure and dynamics for the 15th AGILE International Conference on Geographic Information Science, Avignon, April 24–27.
35. Landis, J.R., and G.G. Koch. 1977. “The Measurement of Observer Agreement for Categorical Data.” Biometrics 33: 159–174.
36. Li, L., Y. Sato, and H. Zhu. 2003. “Simulating Spatial Urban Expansion Based on a Physical Process.” Landscape and Urban Planning 64: 67–76.
37. Lin, Y.P., H.J. Chu, C.F. Wu, and P.H. Verburg. 2011. “Predictive Ability of Logistic Regression, Auto-Logistic Regression and Neural Network Models in Empirical Land-Use Change Modeling – a Case Study.” International Journal of Geographical Information Science 25 (1): 65–87.
38. Longley, P.A. 2002. “Geographical Information Systems: Will Developments in Urban Remote Sensing and GIS Lead to ‘Better’ Urban Geography?” Progress in Human Geography 26 (2): 231–239.
39. Mahiny, A.S., and K.C. Clarke. 2012. “Guiding SLEUTH Land-Use/Land-Cover Change Modeling Using Multicriteria Evaluation: Towards Dynamic Sustainable Land-Use Planning.” Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 39: 925–944.
40. Overmars, K.P., and P.H. Verburg. 2006. “Multilevel Modeling of Land Use from Field to Village Level in the Philippines.” Agricultural Systems 80: 435–456.
41. Patino, J.E., and J.C. Duque. 2013. “A Review of Regional Science Applications of Satellite Remote Sensing in Urban Settings.” Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 37: 1–17.
42. Perez, L., and S. Dragicevic. 2012. “Landscape-Level Simulation of Forest Insect Disturbance: Coupling Swarm Intelligent Agents with GIS-Based Cellular Automata Model.” Ecological Modelling 231: 53–64.
43. Poelmans, L., and A. Van Rompaey. 2009. “Complexity and Performance of Urban Expansion Models.” Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 34 (1): 17–27.
44. Pontius Jr., R.G. 2000. “Quantification Error Versus Location Error in the Comparison of Categorical Maps.” Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing 66 (8): 1011–1016.
45. Pontius Jr., R.G., and M. Millones. 2011. “Death to Kappa: Birth of Quantity Disagreement and Allocation Disagreement for Accuracy Assessment.” International Journal of Remote Sensing 32 (15): 4407–4429.
46. Portugali, J., and I. Benenson. 1995. “Artificial Planning Experience by Means of a Heuristic Cell-Space Model: Simulating International Migration in the Urban Process.” Environment and Planning A 27: 1647–1665.
47. Robinson, D.T., D. Murray-Rust, V. Rieser, V. Milicic, and M. Rounsevell. 2012. “Modelling the Impacts of Land System Dynamics on Human Well-Being: Using an Agent-Based Approach to Cope with Data Limitations in Koper, Slovenia.” Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 36 (2): 164–176.
48. Santé, I., A.M. García, D. Miranda, and R. Crecente. 2010. “Cellular Automata Models for the Simulation of Real-World Urban Processes: A Review and Analysis.” Landscape and Urban Planning 96: 108–122.
49. Shafizadeh Moghadam, H., and M. Helbich. 2013. “Spatiotemporal Urbanization Processes in the Megacity of Mumbai, India: A Markov Chains-Cellular Automata Urban Growth Model.” Applied Geography 40: 140–149.
50. Shen, J.X., and X.H. Wang. 2013. “Spatial-Temporal Changes in Ecological Risk of Land Use Before and After Grain-for-Green Policy in Zhengning County, Gansu Province.” Journal of Resources and Ecology 4 (1): 36–42.
51. Shi, Y., X. Sun, X. Zhu, Y. Li, and L. Mei. 2012. “Characterizing Growth Types and Analyzing Growth Density Distribution in Response to Urban Growth Patterns in Peri-urban Areas of Lianyungang City.” Landscape and Urban Planning 105 (4): 425–433.
52. Tayyebi, A., B.C. Pijanowski, and B. Pekin. 2011. “Two Rule-Based Urban Growth Boundary Models Applied to the Tehran Metropolitan Area, Iran.” Applied Geography 31 (3): 908–918.
53. The National Development and Reform Commission of China. 2009. Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone Plan Approved by State Council. http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2009-12-17/045219276633.shtml.
54. Torrens, P.M. 2006. Geosimulation and its Application to Urban Growth Modeling. London: Springer-Verlag.
55. Triantakonstantis, D.P., D.P. Kalivas, and V.J. Kollias. 2013. “Autologistic Regression and Multicriteria Evaluation Models for the Prediction of Forest Expansion.” New Forests 44: 163–181.
56. Vaz, E., P. Nijkamp, M. Painho, and M. Caetano. 2012. “A Multi-scenario Forecast of Urban Change: A Study on Urban Growth in the Algarve.” Landscape and Urban Planning 104: 201–211.
57. Verhagen, P. 2007. Case Studies in Archaeological Predictive Modeling. Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press.
58. Wang, H., S. He, X. Liu, L. Dai, P. Pan, S. Hong, and W. Zhang. 2013. “Simulating Urban Expansion Using a Cloud-based Cellular Automata Model: A Case Study of Jiangxia, Wuhan, China.” Landscape and Urban Planning 110: 99–112.
59. Wang, J., X. Liu, L. Peng, H. Chen, L. Driskell, and X. Zheng. 2012. “Cities Evolution Tree and Applications to Predicting Urban Growth.” Population and Environment 33 (2): 186–201.
60. Wikipedia. 2012. “IDRISI.” San Francisco, CA: Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. Updated 01.02.12; cited 22.02.12. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IDRISI.
61. Xian, G., and G. Crane. 2005. “Assessments of Urban Growth in the Tampa Bay Watershed Using Remote Sensing Data.” Remote Sensing of Environment 97: 203–215.
62. Xian, G., M. Crane, and J. Su. 2007. “An Analysis of Urban Development and its Environmental Impact on the Tampa Bay Watershed.” Journal of Environmental Management 85: 965–976.
63. Xie, W., P. Wang, and H.S. Huang. 2013. “Ecological Risk Assessment of Land Use Change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone, China.” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 10: 328–346.
64. Yang, X. 2012. “An Assessment of Landscape Characteristics Affecting Estuarine Nitrogen Loading in an Urban Watershed.” Journal of Environmental Management 94: 50–60.
65. Yeh, A.G.-O., and X. Li. 2002. “A Cellular Automata Model to Simulate Development Density for Urban Planning.” Environment and Planning B: Planning & Design 29: 431–450.