Wildfire risk transmission in the colorado front range, USA

Risk Analysis

Volumn 35, Issue 2, 2015, Pages 226-240

  Haas, Jessica R ^a   Calkin, David E ^a   Thompson, Matthew P ^a  

^a ROCKY MOUNTAIN RESEARCH STATION   (United States)

Author keywords

Exposure analysis; Human populated areas; Randig; Risk transmission; Wildfires

Indexed keywords

ECOSYSTEMS; IGNITION; LOSSES; RISK ASSESSMENT;

COLORADO FRONT RANGE; ECOSYSTEM SERVICES; EXPOSURE ANALYSIS; HUMAN COMMUNITIES; HUMAN POPULATED AREAS; HUMAN POPULATION; RANDIG; WILDFIRES;

FIRES;

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; ECOSYSTEM SERVICE; GLOBAL CHANGE; LANDOWNER; OCCUPATIONAL EXPOSURE; RISK ASSESSMENT; WILDFIRE;

COLORADO; FRONT RANGE; ROCKY MOUNTAINS;

COLORADO; COMPUTER SIMULATION; DISASTER; ECOSYSTEM; FIRE; HUMAN; PREVENTION AND CONTROL; RISK; RISK ASSESSMENT; STATISTICAL MODEL; STATISTICS AND NUMERICAL DATA; WEATHER;

COLORADO; COMPUTER SIMULATION; DISASTERS; ECOSYSTEM; FIRES; HUMANS; MODELS, STATISTICAL; RISK; RISK ASSESSMENT; WEATHER;

EID: 84925233611     PISSN: 02724332     EISSN: 15396924     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/risa.12270     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. Noonan-Wright EK, Oppermann TS, Finney MA, Zimmerman GT, Seli RC, Elenz LM, Calkin DE, Fiedler JR. Developing the US wildland fire decision support system. Journal of Combustion, 2011; 2011:1-14.
2. Ager AA, Vaillant NM, Finney MA, Preisler HK. Analyzing wildfire exposure and source-sink relationships on a fire prone forest landscape. Forest Ecology and Management, 2012; 267:271-283.
3. Scott J, Helmbrecht D, Thompson MP, Calkin DE, Marcill K. Probabilistic assessment of wildfire hazard and municipal watershed exposure. Natural Hazards, 2012; 64(1):707-728.
4. Haas JR, Calkin DE, Thompson MP. A national approach for integrating wildfire simulation modeling into wildland urban interface risk assessments within the United States. Landscape and Urban Planning, 2013; 119:44-53.
5. Scott JH, Thompson MP, Calkin DE. A wildfire risk assessment framework for land and resource management. DoAF Service. Vol. RMRS-GTR-315, Series A wildfire risk assessment framework for land and resource management. Rocky Mountain Research Station, 2013.
6. Thompson MP, Calkin DE. Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: A review. Journal of Environmental Management, 2011; 92(8):1895-1909.
7. Flannigan MD, Krawchuk MA, de Groot WJ, Wotton BM, Gowman LM. Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 2009; 18:483-507.
8. Syphard AD, Radeloff VC, Keeley JE, Hawbaker TJ, Clayton MK, Stewart SI, Hammer RB. Human influence on California fire regimes. Ecological Applications, 2007; 17(5):1388-1402.
9. Keeley J, Fotheringham CJ. Impact of past, present, and future fire regimes on North American mediterranean shrublands. Pp. 218-262 in Veblen T, Baker W, Montenegro G, Swetnam TW (eds). Fire and Climatic Change in Temperate Ecosystems of the Western Americas. New York: Springer-Verlag, 2003.
10. Stephens SL. Forest fire causes and extent on United States Forest Service lands. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 2005; 14(3):213-222.
11. Parks SA, Parisien M-A, Miller C. Spatial bottom-up controls on fire likelihood vary across western North America. Ecosphere, 2012; 3(1):1-12.
12. Bar Massada A, Syphard AD, Hawbaker TJ, Stewart SI, Radeloff VC. Effects of ignition location models on the burn patterns of simulated wildfires. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2011; 26(5):583-592.
13. Yang J, He HS, Shifley SR. Spatial controls of occurrence and spread of wildfires in the Missouri Ozark highlands. Ecological Applications, 2008; 18(5):1212-1225.
14. Carmel Y, Paz S, Jahashan F, Shoshany M. Assessing fire risk using Monte Carlo simulations of fire spread. Forest Ecology and Management, 2009; 257:370-377.
15. Moreira F, Catry FX, Rego F, Bacao F. Size-dependent pattern of wildfire ignitions in Portugal: When do igntions turn into big fires? Landscape Ecology, 2009; 2010(25):1405-1417.
16. Sturtevant BR, Cleland DT. Human and biophysical factors influencing modern fire disturbance in northern Wisconsin. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 2007; 16(4):398-413.
17. Krawchuk MA, Cumming SG, Flannigan MD, Wein RW. Biotic and abiotic regulation of lightning fire initiation in the mixedwood boreal forest. Ecology, 2006; 87(2):458-468.
18. Veblen TT, Kitzberger T, Donnegan J. Climatic and human influences on fire regimes in ponderosa pine forests in the Colorado Front Range. Ecological Applications, 2000; 10(4):1178-1195.
19. Syphard AD, Radeloff VC, Hawbaker TJ, Stewart SI. Conservation threats due to human-caused increases in fire frequency in mediterranean-climate ecosystems. Conservation Biology, 2009; 23(3):758-769.
20. Cardille JA, Lambois M. From the redwood forest to the gulf stream waters: Human signature nearly ubiquitous in representative us landscapes. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2009; 8(3):130-134.
21. Cohen J. The wildland-urban interface fire problem. Fremontia, 2010; 38(2, 3):16-22.
22. Menakis JP, Cohen J. Mapping wildland fire risk to flammable structures for the conterminous United States. In Proceedings of Fire Conference 2000: The First National Congress on Fire Ecology, Prevention, and Management Tallahasse, FL: Tall Timber Research Station, 2003.
23. Carmel Y, Paz S, Jahashan F, Shoshany M. Assessing fire risk using Monte Carlo simulations of fire spread. Forest Ecology and Management, 2009; 257(1):370-377.
24. Tymstra C, Bryce RW, Wotton BM, Taylor SW, Armitage OB. Development and Structure of Prometheus: The Canadian Wildland Fire Growth Simulation Model. Report No.: NOR-X-417. Edmonton, Alberta, Canada: Natural Resources Canada, 2010.
25. Finney MA, McHugh CW, Grenfell IC, Riley KL. A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2011; 25(7):973-1000.
26. Finney M, Grenfell I, McHugh CW, Seli R, Trethewey D, Stratton R, Brittain S. A method for ensemble wildland fire simulation. Environmental Modeling and Assessement, 2011; 16(2):1-15.
27. Calkin DE, Thompson MP, Finney MA, Hyde KD. A real-time risk-assessment tool supporting wildland fire decision-making. Journal of Forestry, 2011; 109(5):274-280.
28. Atkinson D, Chladil M, Janssen V, Lucieer A. Implementation of quantitative bushfire analysis in a GIS environment. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 2010; 19:649-658.
29. Thompson MP, Scott J, Kaiden JD, Gilbertson-Day JW. A polygon-based modeling approach to assess exposure of resources and assets to wildfire. Natural Hazards, 2013; 67(2):627-644.
30. Ager AA, Buonopane M, Reger A, Finney MA. Wildfire exposure analysis on the national forests in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Risk Analysis, 2013; 33(6):1000-1020.
31. Butler BJ. Family forest owners of the United States, 2006. USDA Forest Service. Series Family Forest Owners of the United States, 2006. Newtown Square, PA: Northern Research Station, 2008.
32. Calkin DE, Cohen JD, Finney MA, Thompson MP. How risk management can prevent future wildfire disasters in the wildland-urban interface. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2014; 111(2):746-751.
33. Landscan ORNL. 2008 High Resolution Population Distribution model. in L UT-Battelle (eds). Series Landscan 2008 High Resolution Population Distribution Model. Oak Ridge, TN: 2008.
34. Calkin DE, Ager AA, Gilbertson-Day J. Wildfire Risk and Hazard: Procedures for the First Approximation. Report No.: RMRS-GTR-235. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture. Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 2010.
35. Thompson MP, Calkin DE, Finney MA, Ager AA, Gilbertson-Day JW. Integrated national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to human and ecological values. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2011; 25:761-780.
36. Graham RT. Hayman Fire Case Study: Summary. US Department of Agriculture Forest Service. Series Hayman Fire Case Study: Summary. Fort Collins, CO: Rocky Mountain Research Station, 2003.
37. Theobald DM, Romme WH. Expansion of the US wildland-urban interface. Landscape and Urban Planning, 2007; 83(4):340-354.
38. Graham R, Finney M, McHugh C, Cohen J, Calkin D, Stratton R, Bradshaw L, Nikolov N. Fourmile Canyon Fire Findings. US Department of Agriculture Forest Service. Series Fourmile Canyon Fire Findings. Fort Collins, CO: Rocky Mountain Research Station, 2012.
39. Finney MA. An overview of FlamMap fire modeling capabilities. Pp. 213-220 in Andrews PL, Butler BW (eds). Fuels Management-How to Measure Success: Conference Proceedings. March 28-30, 2006, Portland, OR. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 2006.
40. Finney MA. Fire growth using minimum travel time methods. Candian Journal of Forest Research, 2002; 32(8):1420-1424.
41. Scott J, Reinhardt E. Assessing crown fire potential by linking models of surface and crown fire behavior. P. 59 in US Department of Agriculture Forest Service. Series Assessing Crown Fire Potential by Linking Models of Surface and Crown Fire Behavior. Fort Collins, CO: Rocky Mountain Research Station, 2001.
42. Finney M, Grenfell IC, McHugh CW. Modeling containment of large wildfires using generalized linear mixed-model analysis. Forest Science, 2009; 55(3):249-255.
43. Rollins MG, Frame CK. The landfire prototype project: Nationally consistent and locally relevant geospatial data for wildland fire management. US Department of Agriculture Forest Service. General Technical Report. Series The Landfire Prototype Project: Nationally Consistent and Locally Relevant Geospatial Data for Wildland Fire Management. Fort Collins: Rocky Mountain Research Station, 2006.
44. Ryan KC, Opperman TS. Landfire-A national vegetation/fuels data base for use in fuels treatment, restoration, and suppression planning. Forest Ecology and Management, 2013; 294:208-216.
45. Short K. Spatial wildfire occurrence data for the United States, 1992 - 2011 [fpa_fod_20130422]. in Rocky Mountain Research Station (ed). Series Spatial Wildfire Occurrence Data for the United States, 1992-2011 [fpa_fod_20130422]. Fort Collins, CO: USDA Forest Service; 2013.
46. Berman M, Diggle P. Estimating weighted integrals of the second-order intensity of spatial point patterns. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 1989; 51(1):81-92.
47. Stewart SI, Wilmer B, Hammer RB, Aplet GH, Hawbaker TJ, Miller C, Radeloff VC. Wildland-urban interface maps vary with purpose and context. Journal of Forestry, 2009; 107:78-83.
48. Hogland JS, Anderson NM, Jones JG. Function modeling: Improved raster analysis through delayed reading and function raster datasets. In Proceedings of the 36th Annual Meeting of the Council on Forest Engineering, July 8-10, 2013 Missoula, MT: Council on Forest Engineering. Available at: http://web1.cnre.vt.edu/forestry/cofe/documents/2013/Hogland_Anderson_Jones.pdf.
49. Fischer AP, Kline JD, Ager AA, Charnley S, Olsen KA. Objective and perceived wildfire risk and its influence on private forest landowners' fuel reduction activities in Oregon's (USA) ponderosa pine ecoregion. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 2014; 23(1):143-153.
50. McCaffrey S, Stidham M, Toman E, Shindler B. Outreach programs, peer pressure, and common sense: What motivates homeowners to mitigate wildfire risk? Environmental Management, 2011; 48(3):475-488.
51. Rogers RW. Cognitive and physiological processes in fear appeals and attitude change: A revised theory of protection motivation. Pp. 153-176 in Cacoppo J, Petty R (eds). Social Psychophysiology: A Sourcebook. New York: Guilford Press, 1983.
52. Finney MA. A computational method for optimising fuel treatment locations. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 2007; 16:702-711
53. Yao J, Henderson SB. An empirical model to estimate daily forest fire smoke exposure over a large geographic area using air quality, meteorological, and remote sensing data. Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology, 2014; 24(3):328-335.