Integrated national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to human and ecological values

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment

Volumn 25, Issue 6, 2011, Pages 761-780

  Thompson, Matthew P ^a   Calkin, David E ^a   Finney, Mark A ^a   Ager, Alan A ^b   Gilbertson Day, Julie W ^c  

^a ROCKY MOUNTAIN RESEARCH STATION   (United States)

^b USDA FOREST SERVICE   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF MONTANA   (United States)

Author keywords

Fire simulation; Non market values; Wildfire risk assessment

Indexed keywords

FEDERAL LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES; FIRE SIMULATION; FUELS TREATMENT; GEO-SPATIAL; GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS; HIGH-RISK AREAS; INTENSITY LEVELS; MITIGATION MEASURES; NON-MARKET VALUES; RESEARCH NEEDS; RISK ASSESSMENT TOOL; RISK EVALUATION; RISK-BASED DECISIONS; SOCIAL DIMENSIONS; WILDFIRE RISK ASSESSMENT; WILDFIRE SIMULATION;

COMPUTER SIMULATION; ECOLOGY; FIRES; RATING; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK PERCEPTION; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS;

HEALTH RISKS;

DATA ACQUISITION; DATA MANAGEMENT; DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM; DISASTER MANAGEMENT; INTEGRATED APPROACH; METHODOLOGY; NUMERICAL MODEL; PLANNING METHOD; RISK ASSESSMENT; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS; WILDFIRE;

UNITED STATES;

EID: 79959373756     PISSN: 14363240     EISSN: 14363259     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00477-011-0461-0     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. Ager AA, Finney MA, Kerns BK, Maffei H (2007) Modeling wildfire risk to northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) habitat in Central Oregon, USA. For Ecol Manag 246(1): 45-56.
2. Ager AA, Valliant NM, Finney MA (2010) A comparison of landscape fuel treatment strategies to mitigate wildland fire risk in the urban interface and preserve old forest structure. For Ecol Manag 259(8): 1556-1570.
3. Agumya A, Hunter GJ (1999) A risk-based approach to assessing the 'Fitness for use' of spatial data. URISA J 11(1): 33-44.
4. Anderson DH, Catchpole EA, de Mestre NJ, Parkes T (1982) Modelling the spread of grass fires. J Aust Math Soc B 23: 451-466.
5. Andre JCS, Urban JM, Viegas DX (2006) Forest fire spread models: the local quasi-equilibrium approach. Combust Sci Technol 178(10-12): 2115-2143.
6. Bar Massada A, Radeloff VC, Stewart SI, Hawbaker TJ (2009) Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: a simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin. For Ecol Manag 258: 1990-1999.
7. Black A, Opperman T (2005) Fire effects planning framework: a user's guide. General Technical Report GTR-RMRS-163WWW. Fort Collins, CO.
8. Braun WJ, Jones BL, Lee JSW, Woolford DG, Wotton BM (2010) Forest fire risk assessment: an illustrative example from Ontario, Canada. J Probab Stat 2010, Article ID 823018. doi: 10. 1155/2010/823018.
9. Brillinger DR, Autrey BS, Cattaneo MD (2009) Probabilistic risk modeling at the wildland urban interface: the 2003 Cedar Fire. Environmetrics 20: 607-620.
10. Calkin D, Ager A, Gilbertson-Day J, Scott J, Finney M, Schrader-Patton C, Quigley T, Strittholt J, Kaiden J (2010) Wildland fire risk and hazard: procedures for the first approximation. General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-235. Fort Collins, CO.
11. Calkin DE, Rieck JD, Hyde KD, Kaiden JD (in press) Structure identification in wildland fire decision support. Int J Wildland Fire.
12. Carmel Y, Paz S, Jahashan F, Shoshany M (2009) Assessing fire risk using Monte Carlo simulations of fire spread. For Ecol Manag 257: 370-377.
13. Chuvieco E, Aguado I, Yebra M, Nieto H, Salas J, Martín MP, Vilar L, Martínez J, Martín S, Ibarra P, de la Riva J, Baeza J, Rodríguez F, Molina JR, Herrera MA, Zamora R (2010) Development of a framework for fire risk assessment using remote sensing and geographic information system technologies. Ecol Model 221: 46-58.
14. Department of Interior Geological Survey (2009) The national map LANDFIRE: LANDFIRE national existing vegetation type layer. http://www. landfire. gov/. Retrieved May 5, 2009.
15. Despain DG, Beier P, Tate C, Durtsche BM, Stephens T (2000) Modeling biotic habitat high risk areas. J Sustain For 11(1-2): 89-117.
16. Dickson BG, Prather JW, Xu Y, Hampton HM, Aumack EN, Sisk TD (2006) Mapping the probability of large fire occurrence in northern Arizona, USA. Landscape Ecol 21(5): 747-761.
17. Eroglu H, Çakir G, Sivrikaya F, Akay AE (2010) Using high resolution images and elevation data in classifying erosion risks of bare soil areas in the Hatila Valley Natural Protected Area, Turkey. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 24(5): 699-704.
18. Fairbrother A, Turnley JG (2005) Predicting risks of uncharacteristic wildfires: application of the risk assessment process. For Ecol Manag 211: 28-35.
19. Finney MA (2002) Fire growth using minimum travel time methods. Can J For Res 32(8): 1420-1424.
20. Finney MA (2005) The challenge of quantitative risk analysis for wildland fire. For Ecol Manag 211: 97-108.
21. Finney MA, Grenfell IC, McHugh CW, Stratton RD, Trethewey D, Brittain S (in press) An ensemble method for wildland fire simulation. Environ Model Assess.
22. Finney MA, McHugh CW, Stratton RD, Riley KL (2011) A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess (this issue). doi: 10. 1007/s00477-011-0462-z.
23. Fire Executive Council (2009) Guidance for implementation of Federal Wildland Fire Management Policy.
24. González JR, Kolehmainen O, Pukkala T (2007) Using expert knowledge to model forest stand vulnerability to fire. Comput Electron Agric 55: 107-114.
25. Hessburg PF, Reynolds KM, Keane RE, James KM, Salter RB (2007) Evaluating wildland fire danger and prioritizing vegetation and fuel treatments. For Ecol Manag 247: 1-17.
26. Hirsch KG, Corey PN, Martell DL (1998) Using expert judgment to model initial attack fire crew effectiveness. For Sci 44(4): 539-549.
27. Hirsch KG, Podur JA, Jansen RD, McAlpine RD, Martell DL (2004) Productivity of Ontario initial attack fire crews: results of an expert-judgment elicitation study. Can J For Res 34: 705-715.
28. Hyde K, Jones G, Silverstein R, Stockmann K, Loeffler D (2006) Integrating fuel treatments into comprehensive ecosystem management. In: Andrews PL, Butler BW (comps) Fuels management-how to measure success: conference proceedings, 28-30 March 2006, Portland, OR. Proceedings RMRS-P-41. U. S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins.
29. Jones SD, Garvey MF, Hunter GJ (2004) Where's the fire? Quantifying uncertainty in a wildfire threat model. Int J Wildland Fire 13: 17-25.
30. Kaloudis S, Tocatlidou A, Lorentzos NA, Sideridis AB, Karteris M (2005) Assessing wildfire destruction danger: a decision support system incorporating uncertainty. Ecol Model 181: 25-38.
31. Keane RE, Karau E (2010) Evaluating the ecological benefits of wildfire by integrating fire and ecosystem simulation models. Ecol Model. doi: 10. 1016/j. ecolmodel. 2010. 01. 008.
32. Kochi I, Donovan GH, Champ PA, Loomis JB (2010) The economic cost of adverse health effects from wildfire smoke exposure: a review. Int J Wildland Fire 19(7): 803-817.
33. Konoshima M, Montgomery CA, Albers HJ, Arthur JL (2008) Spatial-endogenous fire risk and efficient fuel management and timber harvest. Land Econ 84(3): 449-468.
34. Loboda TV, Csiszar IA (2007) Assessing the risk of ignition in the Russian Far East within a modeling framework of fire threat. Ecol Appl 17(3): 791-805.
35. Maguire LA, Albright EA (2005) Can behavioral decision theory explain risk-averse fire management decisions? For Ecol Manag 211(1-2): 47-58.
36. Masoudi M, Patwardhan AM, Gore SD (2007) Risk assessment of water erosion for the Qareh Aghaj subbasin, southern Iran. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 21(1): 15-24.
37. Miller C, Parisien MA, Ager AA, Finney MA (2008) Evaluating spatially explicit burn probabilities for strategic fire management planning. Trans Ecol Environ 19: 245-252.
38. Neuenschwander LF, Menakis JP, Miller M, Sampson RN, Hardy C, Averill B, Mask R (2000) Indexing Colorado watersheds to risk of wildfire. J Sustain For 11(1-2): 35-55.
39. Ohlson DW, Berry TM, Gray RW, Blackwell BA, Hawkes BC (2006) Multi-attribute evaluation of landscape-level fuel management to reduce wildfire risk. For Policy Econ 8(8): 824-837.
40. O'Laughlin J (2005) Conceptual model for comparative ecological risk assessment of wildfire effects on fish, with and without hazardous fuel treatment. For Ecol Manag 211: 59-72.
41. Rideout DB, Ziesler PS, Kling R, Loomis JB, Botti SJ (2008) Estimating rates of substitution for protecting values at risk for initial attack planning and budgeting. For Policy Econ 10: 205-219.
42. Rigg HG, Stocker R, Campbell C, Polkowsky B, Woodruff T, Lahm P (2000) A screening method for identifying potential air quality risks from extreme wildfire events. J Sustain For 11(1-2): 119-157.
43. Roloff GJ, Mealey SP, Clay C, Barry J, Yanish C, Neuenschwander L (2005) A process for modeling short- and long-term risk the southern Oregon Cascades. For Ecol Manag 211: 166-190.
44. Saaty TL (1980) The analytic hierarchy process. McGraw-Hill, New York.
45. Southern Sierra Geographic Information Cooperative (2003) Develop a landscape scale framework for interagency wildland fuels management planning. Final SSGIC report to Joint Fire Sciences Program. http://ssgic. cr. usgs. gov/pages/reports. htm. Accessed October 16, 2010.
46. Stockmann KD, Hyde KD, Jones JG, Loeffler DR, Silverstein RP (2010) Integrating fuel treatment into ecosystem management: a proposed project planning process. Int J Wildland Fire 19: 1-12.
47. Syphard AD, Radeloff VC, Keuler NS, Taylor RS, Hawbaker TJ, Stewart SI, Clayton MK (2008) Predicting spatial patterns of fire on a southern California landscape. Int J Wildland Fire 17(5): 602-613.
48. Thompson MP, Calkin DE, Gilbertson-Day JW, Ager AA (2010) Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment. Environ Monit Assess. doi: 10. 1007/s10661-010-1731-x.
49. United States Government Accountability Office (2007) Wildland fire management: better information and a systematic process could improve agencies' approach to allocating fuel reduction funds and selecting projects. GAO-07-1168.
50. Vadrevu KP, Eaturu A, Badarinath KVS (2010) Fire risk evaluation using multicriteria analysis-a case study. Environ Model Assess 166(1-4): 223-239.
51. Venn TJ, Calkin DE (2009) Challenges of socio-economically evaluating wildfire management on non-industrial private and public forestland in the Western United States. Small-Scale For 8: 43-61.
52. Zhijun T, Jiquan Z, Xingpeng L (2009) GIS-based risk assessment of grassland fire disaster in western Jilin province, China. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 23(4): 463-471.