Blind oracles: Intellectuals and war from Kennan to Kissinger

Blind Oracles: Intellectuals and War from Kennan to Kissinger

Volumn , Issue , 2013, Pages 1-241

  Kuklick, Bruce ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA   (United States)

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EID: 84924906370     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
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48. Gentile, Strategic Bombing, quoting Nitze, p. 45
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54. Kaplan, The Wizards of Armageddon, pp. 65-67
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60. Simon, Models of My Life, p. 53
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62. Simon, Administrative Behavior, pp. 32, 56, 65, 74-75
63. Simon, Administrative Behavior, pp. 45-46, 184
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66. Kenneth J. Arrow, Social Choice and Individual Values (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1951), pp. 2-3
67. Arrow, Social Choice, pp. 6, 87
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69. Arrow, Social Choice, pp. 31, 33, 37, 60, 85
70. Arrow, Social Choice, pp. 63, 69, 81
71. Sherry, American Air Power, pp. 234-35
72. Robert Paul Wolff, "Reflections on Game Theory and the Nature of Value," Ethics 72 (1962): 174
73. Elizabeth Anderson, Value in Ethics and Economics (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1993)
74. Daniel Ellsberg, "Theory of the Reluctant Duelist," American Economic Review 46 (1956): 923
75. Hedley Bull, "Strategy Studies and Its Critics," World Politics 20 (1968): 593-605
76. Richard Smoke, "National Security Affairs," Handbook of Political Science, vol. 8 (Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1975), p. 327
77. Smoke and George, "Theory for Policy," p. 388
78. Herbert Goldhamer and Hans Speier, "Some Observations on Political Gaming," World Politics 12 (1959-60): 71-83
79. William T. R. Fox's comment in "Frederick Sherwood Dunn and the American Study of International Relations," reprinted in The American Study of International Relations: Essays by William T. R. Fox (Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1968), p. 54
80. Nathan Leites, The Operational Code of the Politburo (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1951)
81. Charles Wolf Jr., Remembering Nathan Leites: An Appreciation, Recollections of Some Friends, Colleagues, and Students (Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 1988)
82. Hitch, "The Uses of Economics" (RAND paper, November 17, 1960)
83. Trachtenberg, Strategic Thought, pt. 3, vol. 3, p. 215
84. Quade, "Recapitulation," p. 326
85. Quade, "Methods and Procedures," p. 175, in Analysis for Military Decisions
86. Walter J. Boyne, Beyond the Wild Blue: A History of the U.S. Air Force, 1947-1997 (New York: St. Martin's, 1997), p. 28
87. David Mayers, George Kennan and the Dilemma of US Foreign Policy (New York: Oxford University Press, 1988), pp. 51-53, 290-91
88. Anders Stephanson, Kennan and the Art of Foreign Policy (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1989), pp. 150, 181
89. Mayers, Kennan, p. 316
90. Kennan, Memoirs, 1925-1950 (Boston: Little, Brown, 1967), pp. 109-12, 232
91. David C. Engerman, Modernization from the Other Shore: American Intellectuals and the Romance of Russian Development (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2003), pp. 253-71
92. "The Sources of Soviet Conduct," in Foreign Affairs (July 1947)
93. Kennan, American Diplomacy, 1900-1950(Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1951)
94. Kennan, Memoirs, pp. 294, 354-60
95. Stephanson, Art, p. 176
96. Mayers, Kennan, pp. 11, 122, 233-35, 307-16
97. Wilson D. Miscamble, George F. Kennan and the Making of American Foreign Policy, 1947-1950 (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1992), pp. 299-304
98. Miscamble, Kennan, pp. 175, 341-42
99. Mayers, Kennan, pp. 233-35, 307-9
100. David S. McClellan, Dean Acheson: The State Department Years (New York: Dodd, Mead, 1976), pp. 157-59, 415-16
101. "Politics as a Vocation," in From Max Weber, ed. and trans. Hans Gerth and C. Wright Mills (New York: Oxford University Press, 1958), esp. pp. 120-28
102. Kennan, Memoirs, p. 468
103. David Callahan, Dangerous Capabilities: Paul Nitze and the Cold War (New York: HarperCollins, 1990), p. 70
104. Miscamble, Kennan, pp. 36, 343
105. Mayers, Kennan, p. 294
106. Nitze, "My School Days in Hyde Park," Hyde Park History 3 (Winter 2001-2): 3
107. Robert P. Newman, "Ending the War with Japan: Paul Nitze's Early Surrender' Counterfactual," Pacific Historical Review 64 (1995): 167-94
108. Callahan, Dangerous Capabilities
109. Strobe Talbot, Master of the Game: Paul Nitze and the Nuclear Peace (New York: Knopf, 1988), pp. 8-12, 23-31, 62
110. Paul H. Nitze, From Hiroshima to Glasnost: At the Center of Decision: A Memoir (New York: Grove Weidenfield, 1989), pp. ix-xxii, 3-7, 153-59
111. Tension Between Opposites: Reflections on the Theory and Practice of Politics (New York: Charles Scribner's Sons, 1993)
112. "NSC (National Insecurity) 68," in Critical Reflections on the Cold War, ed. Martin Medhurst and H. W. Brands (College Station: Texas A&M University Press, 2000), pp. 55-94
113. Gregg Herken, Counsels of War (New York: Knopf, 1985), p. 75
114. Ernest R. May, ed., American Cold War Strategy: Interpreting NSC-68 (Boston: Bedford-St. Martin's, 1993)
115. Jerald A. Combs, "The Compromise That Never Was: George Kennan, Paul Nitze, and the Issue of Conventional Deterrence in Europe, 1949-1952," Diplomatic History 15 (1991): 361-71
116. Charles A. Appleby, "Eisenhower and Arms Control, 1953-1961," Ph.D. diss., School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, 1987
117. Kaplan, The Wizards of Armageddon, p. 178
118. Robert R. Bowie and Richard H. Immerman, Waging Peace: How Eisenhower Shaped an Enduring Cold War Strategy (New York: Oxford University Press, 1998), pp. 48, 268n
119. Travis Beal Jacobs, Eisenhower at Columbia (New Brunswick, N.J.: Transaction, 2002)
120. Campbell Craig, Destroying the Village: Eisenhower and Thermonuclear War (New York: Columbia University Press, 1998)
121. David L. Snead, The Gaither Committee, Eisenhower, and the Cold War (Columbus: Ohio State University Press, 1999), p. 80
122. Samuel Wells Jr., "The Origins of Massive Retaliation," Political Science Quarterly 96 (1981): 31-52
123. Bowie and Immerman, Waging Peace, pp. 3, 31, 178, 247
124. Robert Mann's discussion in A Grand Delusion: America's Descent into Vietnam (New York: Basic Books, 2001), pp. 116-17
125. Bowie and Immerman, Waging Peace, pp. 75, 251
126. H.W. Brands, "The Age of Vulnerability: Eisenhower and the National Insecurity State," American Historical Review 94 (1988-89), esp. pp. 965, 985
127. Peter Roman, Eisenhower and the Missile Gap (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1995), p. 71
128. Kissinger, Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy (New York: Harper and Brothers, 1957), pp. 145, 172, 173
129. Marc Trachtenberg, A Constructed Peace: The Making of the European Settlement, 1945-1963 (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1999), pp. 160-65
130. Trachtenberg, A Constructed Peace, pp. 152-54
131. Richard K. Betts, "Should Strategic Studies Survive," World Politics 50 (1997-98): 13-15
132. Barry H. Steiner, Bernard Brodie and the Foundations of American Nuclear Strategy (Lawrence: University Press of Kansas, 1991), pp. 25-26, 196-99, 228-29
133. Earle, "National Defense and Political Science," Political Science Quarterly 15 (1940): 481-95
134. Makers of Modern Strategy: From Machiavelli to Hitler (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1943)
135. Proceedings of the First International Conference on Operational Research (Baltimore: Operations Research Society of America, 1957), esp. pp. 13, 519-20
136. Brodie, "Strategy as a Science," World Politics 1 (1948-49): 473, 475, 478, 484
137. Trachtenberg, Strategic Thought, pt. 2: Brodie from The Absolute Weapon, p. 81
138. "New Techniques ofWar and National Policies," p. 146
139. Strategic Thought, pt. 3, vol. 1: Brodie from "Nuclear Weapons: Strategic or Tactical?" p. 219
140. Strategic Thought, pt. 3, vol. 2:
141. Brodie, C. J. Hitch, and A. W. Marshall, "The Next Ten Years" (RAND study), p. 1
142. Alain C. Enthoven, "Choosing Strategies and Selecting Weapon Systems," in A Modern Design for Defense Decision: A McNamara-Hitch-Enthoven Anthology, ed. Samuel A. Tucker (Washington, D.C.: Industrial College of the Armed Forces, 1966), pp. 134, 138
143. Sidney B. Fay, The Origins of the World War, 2 vols. (New York: Macmillan, 1928, 1930 1956, 1958)
144. Fritz Fischer, Germany's Aims in the First World War (London: Chatto and Windus, 1967)
145. Niall Ferguson, The Pity of War (New York: Basic Books, 1999)
146. Brodie, "Nuclear Weapons," Strategic Thought, pt. 3, vol. 1, p. 228
147. Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision (Palo Alto: Stanford University Press, 1962)
148. "Cuba and Pearl Harbor: Hindsight and Foresight," Foreign Affairs 44 (1965), esp. p. 690
149. Trachtenberg, Strategic Thought, pt. 2: from Absolute Weapon, pp. 76-77
150. "New Techniques," p. 167
151. Strategic Thought, pt. 3, vol. 1, "Nuclear Weapons," pp. 217-29
152. Strategic Thought, pt. 3, vol. 2, "Unlimited Weapons and Limited War," pp. 16-21
153. "Next Ten Years," esp. pp. 16ff, 38-39
154. "Some Strategic Implications of the Nuclear Revolution," pp. 1-20
155. Kaplan, The Wizards of Armageddon, p. 121
156. "Theory and Opposed System Design," in New Approaches to International Relations, ed. Morton Kaplan (New York: St. Martin's, 1968), esp. pp. 19-21
157. Michael Howard, "Brodie, Wohlstetter and American Nuclear Strategy," Survival 34 (1992): 108-12
158. W. V. Quine, The Time of My Life: An Autobiography (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1985), pp. 124, 147, 184, 198, 217
159. Fred Charles Iklé, "The Role of Character and Intellect in Strategy," in On Not Confusing Ourselves: Essays on National Security Strategy in Honor of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter, ed. Andrew W. Marshall et al. (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1991), p. 315
160. David R. Jardini, "Out of the Blue Yonder: The RAND Corporation's Diversification into Social Welfare Research, 1964-68," Ph.D. diss., Department of History, Carnegie Mellon University, 1997, pp. 60-64
161. Trachtenberg, Strategic Thought, "The Basing Study" in pt. 3, vol. 1
162. "Protecting," in pt. 3, vol. 2
163. Edmund Beard, Developing the ICBM: A Study in Bureaucratic Politics (New York: Columbia University Press, 1976), pp. 95-97
164. Jacob Neufeld, The Development of Ballistic Missiles in the United States Air Force, 1945-1960 (Washington, D.C.: Office of Air Force History, 1989), pp. 57-64
165. Kaplan, The Wizards of Armageddon, pp. 106-7
166. Herken, Counsels of War, pp. 96-97
167. Robert J. Leonard, "War as a 'Simple Economic Problem': The Rise of an Economics of Defense," in Economics and National Security: A History of Their Interaction, ed. Crawford Goodwin (Durham, N.C.: Duke University Press, 1991), pp. 276-77
168. Dulles Memo, September 6, 1953, FRUS, 1952-54, vol. 2, National Security Affairs (in two parts), part 1, p. 458
169. Brodie, Strategy in the Missile Age (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1959), p. 250
170. Tammi L. Gutner, The Story of SAIS (Washington, D.C.: SAIS, 1987), pp. 43-44
171. Walter Isaacson, Kissinger: A Biography (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1992), pp. 84-87
172. Snead, The Gaither Committee
173. Roman, Eisenhower and the Missile Gap
174. S. M. Amadae, Rationalizing Capitalist Democracy: The Cold War Origins of Rational Choice Liberalism (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2003), esp. pp. 83-132
175. Kaplan, The Wizards of Armageddon, pp. 136-37
176. Jeremi Suri, "America's Solution for a Technological Solution to the Arms Race: The Surprise Attack Conference of 1958 and a Challenge for Eisenhower Revisionists," Diplomatic History 21 (1997): 440-42, 450
177. Trachtenberg, A Constructed Peace, pp. 193-200
178. Robert S. Hopkins III, "An Expanded Understanding of Eisenhower, American Policy and Overflights," Intelligence and National Security 11 (1996): 332-44
179. Roman, Eisenhower and the Missile Gap, pp. 48, 54, 58
180. Kaplan, The Wizards of Armageddon, pp. 142, 150-51
181. Trachtenberg, Strategic Thought, pt. 1, pp. 16, 21
182. James C. Dick's essay "The Strategic Arms Race, 1957-61: Who Opened a Missile Gap?" Journal of Politics 34 (1972): 1062-1110
183. Kissinger, The Necessity for Choice, pp. 15, 35
184. Trachtenberg, Strategic Thought, pt. 3, vol. 3
185. "Delicate Balance," in Trachtenberg, Strategic Thought, pt. 3, vol. 3, p. 1
186. Kaplan, The Wizards of Armageddon, pp. 249-50
187. "Farewell Radio and Television Address to the American People," January 17, 1961, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States: Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1960-61 (Washington, D.C.: USGPO, 1961), pp. 1035-40
188. Hans J. Morgenthau," in Power and Policy in Transition, ed. Vojtech Mastney (Bridgeport, Conn.: Greenwood Press, 1984), p. 2
189. Christoph Frei, Hans J. Morgenthau: An Intellectual Biography (Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press, 2001)
190. Morgenthau's Science: Servant or Master? (New York: New American Library, 1972)
191. Scientific Man (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1946)
192. Politics (New York: Knopf, 1948)
193. Defense (New York: Knopf, 1951)
194. Robert Tucker's "Professor Morgenthau's Theory of Political Realism," American Political Science Review 46 (1952), esp. p. 224
195. Scientific Man, pp. 176-90, 196, 202-3
196. Defense, passim, but esp. pp. 4, 39, 200, 221
197. Defense, p. 4
198. Scientific Man, pp. 71, 108-9
199. Scientific Man, esp. pp. 27-29
200. Scientific Man, pp. 210-13
201. Morgenthau, A New Foreign Policy for the United States (New York: Praeger, 1969), esp. pp. 140-44
202. Scientific Man, pp. 130-31
203. A New Foreign Policy, pp. 154-55
204. Truth and Power: Essays of a Decade, 1960-1970(New York: Praeger, 1970), pp. 16-17
205. Karl Mannheim, Ideology and Utopia: An Introduction to the Sociology of Knowledge, trans. and ed. Louis Wirth and Edward Shils [New York: Harcourt-Brace, 1936], esp. pp. 126-27, 147-57, 162-64, 189-91
206. Scientific Man, pp. 155-67
207. Morgenthau, Science: Servant or Master? pp. 39-44
208. Hans Morgenthau, "Prologue," in Truth and Power, p. 5
209. Scientific Man, pp. 5-10, 202-3
210. Scientific Man, pp. v, 220
211. Defense, pp. 33, 144
212. Scientific Man, p. 221
213. David Baldwin has a good overview of these developments in "Security Studies and the End of the Cold War," World Politics 48 (1996): 119-24
214. Roberta Wohlstetter and Albert Wohlstetter, "The State of Strategic Studies in Europe, September 1963" (November 14, 1963) in Box 20, Neustadt Papers, JFK Library
215. Gutner, The Story of SAIS, pp. 15, 16
216. Alan A. Needell has an exposition in "Project Troy and the Cold War Annexation of the Social Sciences," in Universities and Empire: Money and Politics in the Social Sciences during the Cold War, ed. Christopher Simpson (New York: New Press, 1998), pp. 3-38
217. Bruce Cumings, "Boundary Displacement: Area Studies and International Studies during and after the Cold War," Bulletin of Concerned Asian Scholars: http://csf.edu/bcas/sympos/sycuming.htm
218. Donald L. M. Blackmer, The M. I. T.Center for International Studies: The Founding Years 1951-1969 (Cambridge: MIT Center for International Studies, 2002), p. 225
219. James H. Bready, "SAIS," Johns Hopkins University Magazine, December 1951
220. "Necessary and Sufficient Elements of a General Theory of International Relations" (1959) in Nitze, Paul H. Nitze on Foreign Policy, ed. Kenneth W. Thompson and Steven L. Rearden (Lanham, Md.: University Press of America, 1989), p. 40
221. Nitze, Tension between Opposites, pp. 1-57
222. Gutner, The Story of SAIS, pp. 45-47
223. Robert P. Newman, Owen Lattimore and the "Loss" of China (Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1992)
224. Paulo J. B. Ramos, "The Role of the Yale Institute of International Studies in the Construction of United States National Security Ideology, 1935-1951," Ph.D. diss., Department of Government, University of Manchester, 2003, pp. 132-44, 372-73
225. Inderjeet Parmar, "Edward Meade Earle and the Rise of Realism in the United States Academy," Manchester Papers in Politics (University of Manchester, 2001), pp. 1-24
226. "The Social Sciences at Princeton University," reprinted from Princeton Alumni Weekly, May 4, 1951, 49
227. Betts, "Should Strategic Studies Survive," p. 13
228. Kennan, as reprinted in American Diplomacy, expanded ed. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1984), p. 128
229. George E. Pickett, James G. Roche, and Barry D. Watts, "Net Assessment: A Historical Review," and Paul D. Wolfowitz, "Present Trends and Future Consequences in the Asia-Pacific Region," in Marshall et al., On Not Confusing Ourselves, pp. 159-61, 239-40, respectively
230. In May, American Cold War Strategy, p. 29
231. Kissinger, "Limited War: Nuclear or Conventional?" Daedalus, 1960
232. Trachtenberg, Strategic Thought, pt. 3, vol. 3, p. 817
233. Charles O. Jones, "Richard E. Neustadt: Public Servant as Scholar," Annual Review of Political Science (2003): 1-22
234. Richard Neustadt, Presidential Power: The Politics of Leadership (New York: John Wiley, 1960)
235. Neustadt, Presidential Power, pp. 154, 186, 191
236. Neustadt, Presidential Power, pp. 46, 60-61
237. Neustadt, interview, October 8, 2001
238. Neustadt, Presidential Power, pp. ix, 185
239. Neustadt conversations, 1978-79
240. Richard E. Neustadt and Ernest R. May, Thinking in Time: The Use of History for Decision Makers (New York: Free Press, 1986), pp. 232-44
241. Ernest R. May, "Lessons" of the Past: The Use and Misuse of History in American Foreign Policy (New York: Oxford University Press, 1973), quote at p. 190
242. Neustadt and May, Thinking in Time, pp. xiv, xxii, 251
243. Neustadt and May, Thinking in Time, pp. 105, 165
244. Kissinger, Nuclear Weapons, p. 21
245. Jardini's excellent but mistitled "Out of the Blue Yonder," pp. 170-71, 189, 239-40
246. Charles J. Hitch and Roland N. McKean, eds., The Economics of Defense in the Nuclear Age (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1963), p. v
247. Kaplan, The Wizards of Armageddon, p. 251
248. Paul Warnke, Oral History (January 1969), tape 1, p. 3
249. Alain C. Enthoven, Oral History (December 1968), pp. 1-2
250. Enthoven and Henry Rowen, "Defense Planning and Organization," P-1640 (1959)
251. Eugene Burdick and Harvey Wheeler, Fail-Safe (New York: McGraw Hill, 1962)
252. Jack G. Shaheen, ed., Nuclear War Films (Carbondale: Southern Illinois University Press, 1978)
253. Fred Kaplan, "Truth Stranger than 'Strangelove,'" New York Times, October 10, 2004, AR, p. 21
254. Matthew Jones, "'Calling three meetings in five days is foolish-and putting them off for six weeks at a time is just as bad': Organizing the New Frontier's Foreign Policy," Diplomacy and Statecraft 15 (2004): 413-25
255. Stephen Enke, "An Economist Looks at Air Force Logistics," Review of Economics and Statistics 40 (1958): 230-39
256. Henry L. Trewhitt, McNamara (New York: Harper and Row, 1971), pp. 85, 125
257. Trewhitt, McNamara, pp. 110-11
258. Trewhitt, McNamara, pp. 24-25
259. Robert F. Coulam, Illusions of Choice: The F-111 and the Problem of Weapons Acquisition Reform (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1977)
260. Harvey Sapolsky, "The Science and Politics of Defense Analysis," in The Social Sciences Go to Washington, ed. Hamilton Cravens (New Brunswick, N.J.: Rutgers University Press, 2004), esp. pp. 71-73
261. Samuel Huntington, The Common Defense: Strategic Programs in National Politics (New York: Columbia University Press, 1961), p. 146
262. James Roherty, Decisions of Robert S. McNamara: A Study of the Role of the Secretary of Defense (Coral Gables: University of Miami Press, 1970), pp. 101, 151
263. Robert S. McNamara, The Essence of Security: Reflections in Office (New York: Harper and Row, 1968), pp. 103-4, 110, 115-16
264. Roherty, Decisions of McNamara, quoting McNamara, p. 69
265. Frank Gavin, "The Myth of Flexible Response: United States Strategy in Europe during the 1960s," International History Review 23 (2001): 847-75
266. I. B. Holley Jr., "The Evolution of Operations Research. . . ," in Science, Technology, and War: The Proceedings of the Third Military History Symposium, United States Air Force Academy 8-9 May 1969, ed. Monte D. Wright and Lawrence J. Paszek (Washington, D.C.: USGPO, 1969), p. 96
267. Trewhitt, McNamara, p. 281
268. Desmond Ball, Politics and Force Levels: The Strategic Missile Program of the Kennedy Administration (Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1980), esp. p. 211
269. Trachtenberg, A Constructed Peace, especially his summation, pp. 352-402
270. Trachtenberg, A Constructed Peace, pp. 193-200
271. Thompson to State Department, December 13, 1958, FRUS 1958-60, vol. 8, Berlin Crisis 1958-1959, pp. 149-51
272. Trachtenberg, Strategic Thought, pt. 1
273. "Challenge and Response in United States Policy," Foreign Affairs 36 (1957): 33
274. Jan Melissen, "Nuclearizing NATO, 1957-1959: The 'Anglo-Saxons,' Nuclear Sharing and the Fourth Country Problem," Review of International Studies 20 (1994): 253-75
275. Suri, "America's Solution," 440-42
276. Kaplan, The Wizards of Armageddon, pp. 202-3, 337-38
277. Memorandum, Eisenhower and National Security Advisor Gray, December 8, 1958, FRUS, 1958-60, vol. 3, National Security Policy, Arms Control and Disarmament, p. 170
278. Dean Rusk, As I Saw It (New York: Norton, 1990), pp. 265, 341
279. Marc Trachtenberg, "Strategic Thought in America, 1952-1966," in History and Strategy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1991), pp. 26, 32, 34-35
280. William W. Kaufmann, The McNamara Strategy (New York: Harper and Row, 1964)
281. McNamara's proposals-"Remarks at the NATO's Ministers Meeting," May 5, 1962
282. Michigan "Address," June 16, 1962
283. New York "Address," November 18, 1963, are all reprinted in Trachtenberg, Strategic Thought, pt. 1 See esp. pp. 580-81, 586, 591-92, 600
284. Herken, Counsels of War, p. 304
285. Kaplan, The Wizards of Armageddon, pp. 300-319
286. Trachtenberg, History and Strategy, p. 249 n. 37
287. Wohlstetter, "Bishops, Statesmen, and Other Strategists on the Bombing of Innocents," Commentary, June 1983, esp. pp. 25-26
288. The Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (Boston: Little, Brown, 1971)
289. Trachtenberg, A Constructed Peace
290. Rusk-Dobrynin Conversation, August 8, 1962, FRUS 1961-63, vol. 7, Arms Control and Disarmament, pp. 544, 546
291. Robert Weisbrot, Maximum Danger: Kennedy, the Missiles, and the Crisis of American Confidence (Chicago: Ivan R. Dee, 2001)
292. Philip Nash, The Other Missiles of October: Eisenhower, Kennedy, and the Jupiters, 1957-1963 (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1997)
293. James G. Blight and David A. Welch, On the Brink: Americans and Soviets Reexamine the Cuban Missile Crisis (New York: Hill and Wang, 1989), pp. 113ff., 333 n. 5
294. Rusk, As I Saw It, pp. 240-41
295. Zelikow, The Kennedy Tapes: Inside the White House During the Cuban Missile Crisis (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1997), pp. 684, 689-90, 694, 699
296. James G. Blight, The Shattered Crystal Ball: Fear and Learning in the Cuban Missile Crisis (Savage, Md.: Rowman and Littlefield, 1990), esp. p. 145
297. Geir Lundestad, The United States and Western Europe since 1945 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2003), pp. 7-8, 21 n. 26
298. Harriman-Khrushchev Conversation, July 27, 1963, FRUS 1961-63, vol. 7, Arms Control and Disarmament, p. 862
299. Wohlstetter, "Cuba and Pearl Harbor." 15 Schlesinger, One Thousand Days (Boston: Houghton, Mifflin, 1965), p. 841
300. Kaufmann, The McNamara Strategy, pp. 274, 294
301. May and Zelikow, The Kennedy Tapes, back cover blurb
302. Dean Acheson, "Dean Acheson's Version of Robert Kennedy's Version of the Cuban Missile Affair," Esquire, February 1969, pp. 77, 46
303. Sheldon M. Stern, Averting the Final Failure: John F. Kennedy and the Secret Cuban Missile Crisis Meetings (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2003), p. xv
304. May and Zelikow, The Kennedy Tapes, especially the introduction, pp. 1-43
305. Richard M. Pious, in "The Cuban Missile Crisis and the Limits of Crisis Management," Political Science Quarterly 116 (2001): 31-105
306. Bernard Brodie's discussion in "What Price Conventional Capabilities in Europe?" The Reporter, May 23, 1963, p. 32
307. Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966), pp. 96-97
308. Lawrence Legere Memo of White House Staff Meeting, October 31, 1963, FRUS 1961-63, vol. 11, Cuban Missile Crisis and Aftermath, p. 320
309. Blight and Welch, On the Brink, pp. 153, 170, 200ff
310. Blight, The Shattered Crystal Ball, p. 158
311. Blight and Welch, On the Brink, pp. 153, 170, 200ff
312. James G. Blight, David A. Welch, and Bruce J. Allyn, Cuba on the Brink: Castro, the Missile Crisis, and the Soviet Collapse (New York: Pantheon, 1993), pp. 40, 137
313. For an example see Wohlstetter, "Cuba and Pearl Harbor," p. 707
314. Nelson Goodman in Fact, Fiction, and Forecast (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1955)
315. Philip E. Tetlock and Aaron Belkin, eds., Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996)
316. Jonathan Bennett, A Philosophical Guide to Conditionals (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2003), esp. pp. 222-24, 246-51, 302-21
317. Neustadt and May, Thinking in Time, p. 2
318. Richard K. Betts in Nuclear Blackmail and Nuclear Balance (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1987), pp. 109-23
319. Irving L. Janis, Victims of "Groupthink": A Psychological Study of Foreign Policy Decisions and Fiascoes (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1972)
320. Acheson, "Dean Acheson's Version," p. 76
321. Richard E. Neustadt, Report to JFK: The Skybolt Crisis in Perspective (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1999), pp. 36-37, 69, 70, 73, 76, 77, 98
322. David Kaiser, American Tragedy: Kennedy, Johnson, and the Origins of the Vietnam War (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2000)
323. Kai Bird, The Color of Truth: McGeorge Bundy and William Bundy: Brothers in Arms, A Biography (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1998), pp. 261-64
324. Lawrence Freedman, Kennedy's Wars: Berlin, Cuba, Laos, and Vietnam (New York: Oxford University Press, 2000), pp. 367-97
325. Howard Jones, Death of a Generation: How the Assassination of Diem and JFK Prolonged the Vietnam War (New York: Oxford University Press, 2003), esp. pp. 13-48
326. H. R. McMaster, Dereliction of Duty: Lyndon Johnson, Robert McNamara, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Lies That Led to Vietnam (New York: HarperCollins, 1997), p. 297
327. Thomas W. Zeiler, Dean Rusk: Defending the American Mission Abroad (Wilmington, Del.: Scholarly Resources, 2000), pp. 6-11
328. Rusk, As I Saw It, pp. 85, 189, 533, 553, 598, 607-8
329. In this sketch, I have relied on Bird, The Color of Truth, pp. 69, 88-93, 104-9, 118-37
330. Bruce Kuklick, "History as a Way of Learning," American Quarterly 22 (1970): 614-19
331. Robert Ayson, Thomas Schelling and the Nuclear Age: Strategy as Social Science (London: Frank Cass, 2004)
332. Kaplan, The Wizards of Armageddon, pp. 332-33. New York: Frederick A. Praeger, 1965
333. Herken, Counsels of War, p. 119
334. Schelling, Arms and Influence, p. 71
335. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1960), pp. iii-iv, 8-9, 14-15
336. Trachtenberg, Strategic Thought, pt. 3, vol. 1, pp. 161-212, 213-36, 326-49
337. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, pp. 85-86, 108, 116
338. Strategy, pp. 117, 162-63
339. Arms and Influence, p. 9
340. Arms and Influence, pp. 121-22
341. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, p. v
342. Schelling, Arms and Influence, p. 173
343. "Nuclear Strategy in Europe," World Politics 14 (1961-62): 429
344. "Managing the Arms Race" in National Security: Political Military, and Economic Strategies in the Decade Ahead, ed. David M. Abshire and Richard V. Allen (New York: Praeger, 1963), p. 613
345. Schelling, Arms and Influence, pp. 142-43
346. Edwin E. Moïse's careful study, Tonkin Gulf and the Escalation of the Vietnam War (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1996), esp. pp. xi-xiii, 1-30
347. Kaplan, The Wizards of Armageddon, pp. 332-36
348. Schelling, Arms and Influence, pp. 141-51, 170-72
349. Sherry, American Air Power, p. 165
350. William E. Simons, "The Vietnam Intervention, 1964-65" (originally a 1969 RAND study) in The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy, ed. Alexander George and William E. Simons, 2nd ed. (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1994), pp. 144-210
351. Neustadt and May, Thinking in Time, pp. 78-88, 305 n. 6;
352. Warnke, Oral History, tape 2 (January 1969), pp. 5-8, LBJ Library
353. Mann's discussion in A Grand Delusion, pp. 453-54
354. Clark Clifford, Counsel to the President: A Memoir (New York: Random House, 1991), pp. 410-11, 418-21
355. Blight and Welch, On the Brink, pp. 106, 155-56, 170, 194
356. McNamara, In Retrospect (New York: Random House, 1995), pp. 323, 332, 338-39
357. David Stigerwald, "The Paradoxes of Kennedy Liberalism," Reviews in American History 28 (2000): 640
358. Lawrence Freedman in his "On the Tiger's Back: The Development of the Concept of Escalation," in Kolkowicz, Logic of Nuclear Terror, pp. 136, 138
359. Based largely on "The Pentagon Papers" (which I discuss in chapter 9)
360. Stephen Peter Rosen, "Vietnam and the American Theory of LimitedWar," International Security 7 (1982): 83-113
361. Henry Kissinger, White House Years (Boston: Little, Brown, 1979), p. 41
362. Michael E. Latham, Modernization as Ideology: American Social Science and "Nation Building" in the Kennedy Era (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 2000)
363. David Engerman et al., eds., Staging Growth: Modernization, Development, and the Global Cold War (Amherst: University of Massachusetts Press, 2003)
364. W. W. Rostow, The Dynamics of Soviet Society (New York: Norton, 1953), p. 81
365. The Diffusion of Power: An Essay in Recent History (New York: Macmillan, 1972), pp. 87-88
366. Rostow, Stages of Economic Growth (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1960), pp. esp. 25-29, 50-51, 131-33, 141-43, 162-64
367. Rostow, The Diffusion of Power, pp. 87-88
368. Bowie and Immerman, Waging Peace, pp. 110-11, 115
369. Roherty, Decisions of McNamara, p. 41
370. FRUS, 1961-63, vol. 8, National Security Policy, p. 55
371. Rostow, Oral History no. 1, p. 13, LBJ Library
372. Freedman, Kennedy's Wars, pp. 317, 338
373. Daniel Ellsberg, Secrets: A Memoir of Vietnam and the Pentagon Papers (New York: Viking, 2002), p. 348
374. Rostow, Oral History, no. 1, pp. 9-10
375. Rostow Memorandum, April 24, 1961, in The Cuban Missile Crisis, 1962: A National Security Archive Documents Reader, ed. Laurence Chang and Peter Kornbluh (New York: New Press, 1998), p. 19
376. Rostow, Oral History, p. 14, JFK Library
377. Pickett, Roche, and Watts, "Net Assessment," pp. 158-85
378. Gene M. Lyons and Louis Morton, Schools for Strategy: Education and Research in National Security Affairs (New York: Praeger, 1965), pp. 146-54
379. The John F. Kennedy School of Government: The First Fifty Years (Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger, 1986), HUE 44.186.42A, Harvard University Archives
380. Richard E. Neustadt, Alliance Politics (New York: Columbia University Press, 1970), p. 7
381. Coulam, Illusions of Choice, pp. xi-xii, 391-93
382. Robert Abt, "Bureaucratic Politics and American Foreign Policy: A Critique," Policy Sciences 4 (1973): 467-90
383. Leroy S. Rouner, Civility (Notre Dame, Ind.: University of Notre Dame Press, 2000)
384. Graham T. Allison and Morton H. Halperin, "Bureaucratic Politics: A Paradigm and some Policy Implications," World Politics 24, Supplement (1972): 40-79
385. "The Use and Abuse of History," which I have used in the pamphlet of that name (Indianapolis: Bobbs-Merrill, 1957), 16 See Richard Moran, Authority and Estrangement: An Essay on Self-Knowledge (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2001), pp. 64-65, 100-101
386. Neustadt and May, Thinking in Time, pp. xviii-xx
387. Neustadt, Alliance Politics, p. 160
388. Neustadt and May, Thinking in Time, quote at p. xi
389. Allison and Halperin, "Bureaucratic Politics," p. 73
390. Stephen Miller's review "International Security at Twenty-Five," International Security 26 (2001-2): 5-6
391. Allison and Zelikow, The Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missle Crisis, 2nd ed. (New York: Longman, 1999)
392. Allison, The Essence of Decision, pp. 278-79, 327-28
393. For example, Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict
394. Allison and Zelikow, The Essence of Decision, pp. 99-108
395. Allison, The Essence of Decision, pp. ix, 251, quote at p. 275
396. Allison and Zelikow, The Essence of Decision, p. 401
397. Bruce Kuklick, A History of Philosophy in America (New York: Oxford University Press, 2001), pp. 269-72
398. Allison, The Essence of Decision, pp. ix, 251, 275
399. Allison and Zelikow, The Essence of Decision, p. 401
400. Adam Yarolinsky, Oral History (1970), p. 27, LBJ Library
401. Hoopes, The Devil and John Foster Dulles (Boston: Little, Brown, 1973), pp. 257, 405
402. The Bitter Heritage: Vietnam and the American Democracy, 1941-1966 (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1967), pp. 31-32
403. Warnke Oral History (1969), Tape 2, pp. 5-8, LBJ Library
404. Smoke, "National Security Affairs," p. 327
405. Deborah Shapley, Promise and Power: The Life and Times of Robert McNamara (Boston: Little, Brown, 1993), pp. 376-77
406. McNamara, In Retrospect: The Tragedy and Lessons of Vietnam, expanded ed. (New York: Vintage, 1996), pp. 254-56
407. Neustadt, Alliance Politics (New York: Columbia University Press, 1970), pp. 150-51
408. Leslie Gelb, "Misreading the Pentagon Papers," op-ed, New York Times, June 29, 2001
409. New York Times, December 30, 1971, p. 10
410. John Prados and Margaret Pratt Porter, eds., Inside the Pentagon Papers (Lawrence: University Press of Kansas, 2004), pp. 12-17
411. Prados and Porter, Inside the Pentagon Papers, pp. 15-23
412. Jardini, "Out of the Blue Yonder," pp. 281-82, 419-20, 512
413. Prados and Porter, Inside the Pentagon Papers, p. 25
414. George C. Herring, The Secret Diplomacy of the Vietnam War: The Negotiating Volumes of the Pentagon Papers (Austin: University of Texas Press, 1983)
415. John Prados, ed., National Security Archive, U.S. Policy in the Vietnam War, vol. 2, 1969-75 (Alexandria, Va.: Chadwyck-Healey, 2003)
416. George McT. Kahin, "The Pentagon Papers: A Critical Evaluation," American Political Science Review 69 (1975): 676, 680, 684
417. H. Bradford Westerfield, "What Use Are Three Versions of the Pentagon Papers?" (pp. 685-96)
418. Tom Wells, Wild Man: The Life and Times of Daniel Ellsberg (New York: Palgrave, 2001), pp. 313-14
419. Ellsberg, Secrets, p. 243
420. Rusk, As I Saw It, pp. 575-77
421. Noam Chomsky, "The Pentagon Papers as Propaganda and as History," in Senator Mike Gravel Edition, The Pentagon Papers: Critical Essays, vol. 5. , eds. Chomsky and Howard Zinn (Boston: Beacon Press, 1972), pp. 179-101
422. Gravel, vol. 1, pp. 260, 264-65, 333
423. Morton Halperin interview, March 4, 2003
424. Gelb Memo, in United States-Vietnam Relations, 1945-1967, 12 vols. (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Govt. Print. Office, 1971), vol. 1, pp. ix-x
425. Ellsberg, "Theories of Rational Choice Under Uncertainty" (B.A. thesis, 1953), esp. 35-36, 164
426. "The Crude Analysis of Strategic Choices," American Economic Review 51 (1961): 478
427. Ellsberg, "The Theory and Practice of Blackmail," RAND P-3883 (1968), See Peter Schrag, Test of Loyalty: Daniel Ellsberg and the Rituals of Secret Government (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1974), p. 35
428. David Rudenstine, The Day the Presses Stopped: A History of the Pentagon Papers Case (Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1996), pp. 18-29, 33-47
429. Ellsberg, "Introduction," in Papers on the War (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1972), p. 24
430. Rudenstine, Pentagon Papers, p. 33
431. Shrag, Test of Loyalty, p. 41
432. Ellsberg, "The Responsibility of Officials in a Criminal War," in Papers on the War, pp. 308-9
433. Schrag, Test, p. 27
434. Ellsberg, "Introduction," pp. 18-19
435. "The Quagmire Myth and the Stalemate Machine," pp. 43, 49, 100, in Papers on the War
436. Ellsberg, "Quagmire," e.g., pp. 70, 86, 88-89, 92
437. Ellsberg, "Quagmire," pp. 29, 35
438. Gelb and Betts, The Irony of Vietnam: The System Worked (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 1979), pp. 2, 24, 241
439. Rudenstine, Pentagon Papers, p. 121
440. Stephen R. Graubard, Kissinger: Portrait of a Mind (New York: Norton, 1973), p. 119
441. Ralph Blumenfeld et al., Henry Kissinger: The Public and Private Story (New York: New American Library, 1974), p. 86
442. William Bundy, Notes for Book Appearances (ca. 1998), Box 9
443. Kai Bird, The Color of Truth: McGeorge Bundy and William Bundy: Brothers in Arms: A Biography (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1998), p. 142
444. "Kissinger now," quoted in Herken, Counsels of War, p. 99
445. Kissinger, Bird, pp. 143-44
446. Neustadt conversations, 1978-79
447. Isaacson, Kissinger, pp. 79, 100, 114
448. Kissinger, White House Years, pp. 13-14
449. Peter W. Dickson, Kissinger and the Meaning of History (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1978)
450. Jussi Hanhimäki, The Flawed Architect: Henry Kissinger and American Foreign Policy (New York: Oxford University Press, 2004), pp. 5-8
451. "Meaning of History," p. 1
452. "Meaning of History," p. 132
453. "Meaning of History," pp. 198n, 245
454. Carl J. Friedrich, ed., The Philosophy of Kant: Immanuel Kant's Moral and Political Writings (New York: Modern Library, 1949), especially, pp. xl-xlv
455. Friedrich's Inevitable Peace (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1948)
456. "Meaning of History," pp. 4, 234, 285-86, 342, 345
457. "Meaning of History," pp. 6-9, 341
458. Stephen R. Graubard, Kissinger, with its subtitle; but see esp. pp. 1-12
459. "Meaning of History," p. 327
460. Kissinger, A World Restored: The Politics of Conservatism in a Revolutionary Age (New York: Houghton Mifflin, 1957, 1964, 1969), pp. 213, 312-13, 83, 11
461. Kissinger, "The White Revolutionary: Reflections on Bismarck," Daedalus, summer 1968, pp. 888-924
462. Diplomacy (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1994), pp. 294-95, 314, 350, 686
463. Kissinger, World Restored, pp. 312-32
464. "The Policymaker and the Intellectual," The Reporter, March 5, 1959, p. 35
465. Andrew Preston, "The Little State Department: McGeorge Bundy and the National Security Council Staff, 1961-65," Presidential Studies Quarterly 31 (2001): 636-41
466. Kissinger, Nuclear Weapons, pp. 410, 434
467. Henry A. Kissinger, American Foreign Policy, expanded ed. (New York: Norton, 1969, 1974), p. 206
468. Kissinger, American Foreign Policy, p. 156
469. Diplomacy, pp. 421, 733-61
470. Kissinger, American Foreign Policy, p. 214
471. Kissinger, American Foreign Policy, pp. 225-26
472. Kissinger, American Foreign Policy, p. 139
473. Kissinger, "Statement Before the Committee on Foreign Relations . . . 1979" in For the Record: Selected Statements 1977-1980 (Boston: Little, Brown, 1981), p. 192
474. Kissinger, "Statement," For the Record, p. 217
475. Kissinger, Years of Renewal (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1999), p. 248
476. "Footsteps of History" (1980) in For the Record, p. 262
477. Seyom Brown, The Crises of Power: An Interpretation of United States Foreign Policy during the Kissinger Years (New York: Columbia University Press, 1979), pp. 141-53
478. Neustadt conversations, 1978-79
479. Adam Garfinkle, Telltale Hearts: The Origins and Impact of the Vietnam Antiwar Movement (New York: St. Martin's, 1995).
480. William Bundy, A Tangled Web: The Making of Foreign Policy in the Nixon Presidency (New York: Hill and Wang, 1998)
481. Jeffrey Kimball, Nixon's Vietnam War (Lawrence: University Press of Kansas, 1998)
482. Christopher Hitchens, The Trial of Henry Kissinger (New York: Verso, 2001)
483. Larry Berman, No Peace, No Honor: Nixon, Kissinger, and Betrayal in Vietnam (New York: Free Press, 2001)
484. Jussi Hanhimäki's "Selling the Decent Interval: Kissinger, Triangular Diplomacy, and the End of the Vietnam War, 1971-73," Diplomacy and Statecraft 14 (2003): 159-94
485. Berman, No Peace, No Honor, pp. 186-88
486. Jeffrey Kimball's The Vietnam War Files: Uncovering the Secret History of Nixon-Era Strategy (Lawrence: University Press of Kansas, 2004)
487. Bundy, Web, p. 302
488. Shawcross, Sideshow, p. 396, and repeated on pp. 443-44
489. Also Bundy, Web, pp. 368-71
490. Kimball, Nixon's Vietnam, pp. 331, 333
491. Isaacson, Kissinger, pp. 161, 313, 484-86
492. Hanhimäki, Flawed Architect, pp. 230ff., 284
493. Pierre Asselin, A Bitter Peace:Washington, Hanoi, and the Making of the Paris Agreement (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 2002)
494. Kimball, Nixon's Vietnam, p. 239
495. Shawcross, Sideshow, p. 396
496. Bundy, Web, p. 302
497. Kimball, Nixon's Vietnam, pp. 370-71
498. Kimball, Nixon's Vietnam, pp. 370-71
499. Bundy et al., "Nuclear Weapons and the Atlantic Alliance," Foreign Affairs 61 (1982): 53-68
500. Bundy, "To Cap the Volcano," Foreign Affairs 48 (1969): 11
501. A large section of Danger and Survival: Choices about the Bomb in the First Fifty Years (New York: Random House, 1988) bears careful reading: see pp. 339-457
502. Paul Hendrickson, The Living and the Dead: Robert McNamara and Five Lives of a Lost War (New York: Knopf, 1996)
503. McMaster, Dereliction of Duty
504. Shapley, Promise and Power
505. Trewhitt, McNamara
506. Stephen Twing, Myths, Models and U.S. Foreign Policy: The Cultural Shaping of Three Cold Warriors (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner, 1998)
507. McNamara tells his interviewer this in Errol Morris's film The Fog of War (2004)
508. This portrait of McNamara is drawn from the early pages of In Retrospect, esp. pp. 4, 11, 12, 17, 252-54
509. McNamara Oral History, no. 1 (1975), p. 6, LBJ Library;
510. Shapley, Promise and Power, pp. vii-xvi, 614-15
511. The Fog of War also supports my picture
512. Halberstam, The Best and the Brightest (New York: Random House, 1972), p. 237
513. In Retrospect gives some sense of this on pp. xxii, 216-17, 258, 313
514. "Roundtable Review," Diplomatic History 20 (1996), quote at p. 466
515. Adam Yarmolinsky's Oral History (1980), p. 18, LBJ Library
516. In Retrospect, p. 355
517. Cited from In Retrospect, pp. 422-23
518. In Retrospect, pp. xvi, 237-38
519. In Retrospect, pp. xvii, 277
520. Jones, Death of a Generation, pp. 365-68
521. Blight and Welch, On the Brink, pp. 244, 247, 257
522. McNamara and James G. Blight, Wilson's Ghost: Reducing the Risk of Conflict, Killing, and Catastrophe in the 21st Century (New York: Public Affairs, 2001), pp. 73-75
523. Argument without End, pp. 6, 376, 392
524. Argument without End, pp. 22, 26, 38, 379
525. Quoted in George McT. Kahin, "The Pentagon Papers: A Critical Evaluation," American Political Science Review 69 (1975): 683n
526. In Retrospect, pp. 106-7
527. In Retrospect, pp. 184, 187
528. In Retrospect, pp. 222-23
529. In Retrospect, pp. 260-63
530. Argument without End, p. 383
531. Argument without End, pp. 376-77, 381
532. Argument without End, quotes, in order: pp. 47, 85, 139, 23-24
533. Argument without End, esp. pp. 220-21, 253-56, quote at p. 255
534. Argument without End, p. 56
535. Argument without End, p. 22
536. Argument without End, pp. 6, 374
537. John P. McCormick, Carl Schmitt's Critique of Liberalism: Against Politics as Technology (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997)
538. Bundy, "Reconsiderations: Vietnam, Watergate, and Presidential Powers," Foreign Affairs 58 (1979): 397
539. G. L. S. Shackle, Uncertainty in Economics and Other Reflections (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1955), p. 9
540. David M. Barrett, Uncertain Warriors: Lyndon Johnson and His Vietnam Advisors (Lawrence: University Press of Kansas, 1993), usefully distinguishes between the rational and the wise, pp. 190-94
541. Franklin, The Autobiography and Other Writings (New York: Penguin, 1986), p. 39
542. Latham, Modernization as Ideology, esp. pp. 1-29
543. "Domino Theory" in Encyclopedia of the Vietnam War, ed. Spencer C Tucker (New York: Oxford University Press, 1998), pp. 104-5
544. Jardini, "Out of the Blue Yonder," pp. 281-82, 419-20
545. From Makers of Nuclear Strategy, ed. John Baylis and John Garrett (New York: St. Martin's, 1991): their introduction, p. 9
546. Lawrence Freedman, "Henry Kissinger," p. 98
547. Phil Williams, "Thomas Schelling," pp. 120, 133
548. Ken Booth, "Bernard Brodie," p. 55
549. Miscamble, Kennan, pp. 175, 341-42
550. Mayers, Kennan, pp. 233-35, 307-9
551. McLellan, Dean Acheson, pp. 157-59, 415-16
552. David Engerman, "Rethinking Cold War Universities: Some Recent Histories," Journal of Cold War Studies 5 (2003): 80-95
553. Dorothy Ross, The Origins of American Social Science (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1991)