Evaluation of ensemble forecast uncertainty using a new proper score: Application to medium-range and seasonal forecasts

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Volumn 141, Issue 687, 2015, Pages 538-549

  Christensen, H M ^a   Moroz, I M ^a   Palmer, T N ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Ensemble forecasting; Error spread score; Forecast verification; Proper scores; Reliability; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC MOVEMENTS; FORECASTING; PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS; RELIABILITY;

DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMS; EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS; FORECAST VERIFICATIONS; PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS; PROPER SCORES; UNCERTAINTY;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; ERROR ANALYSIS; PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT; PREDICTION; RELIABILITY ANALYSIS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 84924455388     PISSN: 00359009     EISSN: 1477870X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/qj.2375     Document Type: Article

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