메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 125, Issue 11, 1997, Pages 2969-2983

The impact of dynamical constraints on the selection of initial conditions for ensemble predictions: Low-order perfect model results

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords


EID: 0000884631     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<2969:TIODCO>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (74)

References (45)
  • 1
    • 0029772167 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Selection of initial conditions for ensemble forecasts in a simple perfect model framework
    • Anderson, J. L., 1996a: Selection of initial conditions for ensemble forecasts in a simple perfect model framework. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 22-36.
    • (1996) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.53 , pp. 22-36
    • Anderson, J.L.1
  • 2
    • 0030438938 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A method for producing and evaluting probabilistic forecasts from ensemble model integrations
    • _, 1996b: A method for producing and evaluting probabilistic forecasts from ensemble model integrations. J. Climate. 9, 1518-1530.
    • (1996) J. Climate , vol.9 , pp. 1518-1530
  • 3
    • 0001763354 scopus 로고
    • The relationship between spread and forecast error in extended range forecasts
    • Barker, T. W., 1991: The relationship between spread and forecast error in extended range forecasts. J. Climate. 4, 733-742.
    • (1991) J. Climate , vol.4 , pp. 733-742
    • Barker, T.W.1
  • 4
    • 0027799839 scopus 로고
    • Local skill prediction for the ECMWF model using adjoint techniques
    • Barkmeijer, J., 1993: Local skill prediction for the ECMWF model using adjoint techniques. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 1262-1268.
    • (1993) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.121 , pp. 1262-1268
    • Barkmeijer, J.1
  • 7
    • 0029520273 scopus 로고
    • Optimal perturbation time evolution and senstivity of ensemble prediction to perturbation amplitude
    • Buizza, R., 1995: Optimal perturbation time evolution and senstivity of ensemble prediction to perturbation amplitude. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 121, 1705-1738.
    • (1995) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.121 , pp. 1705-1738
    • Buizza, R.1
  • 8
    • 0029412335 scopus 로고
    • The singular-vector structure of the atmospheric global circulation
    • _, and T. N. Palmer, 1995: The singular-vector structure of the atmospheric global circulation. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1434-1456.
    • (1995) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.52 , pp. 1434-1456
    • Palmer, T.N.1
  • 9
    • 0027835599 scopus 로고
    • Computation of optimal unstable structures for a numerical weather prediction model
    • _, J. Tribbia, F. Molteni, and T. Palmer, 1993: Computation of optimal unstable structures for a numerical weather prediction model. Tellus. 45A, 388-407.
    • (1993) Tellus , vol.45 A , pp. 388-407
    • Tribbia, J.1    Molteni, F.2    Palmer, T.3
  • 10
    • 0027789330 scopus 로고
    • Cluster analysis of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime 500-hPa height field: Spatial patterns
    • Cheng, X., and J. M. Wallace, 1993: Cluster analysis of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime 500-hPa height field: Spatial patterns. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 2674-2696.
    • (1993) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.50 , pp. 2674-2696
    • Cheng, X.1    Wallace, J.M.2
  • 12
    • 0031464889 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Optimal prediction of forecast error covariances through singularvectors
    • Ehrendorfer, M., and J. J. Tribbia, 1997: Optimal prediction of forecast error covariances through singularvectors. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 286-313.
    • (1997) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.54 , pp. 286-313
    • Ehrendorfer, M.1    Tribbia, J.J.2
  • 13
    • 0001609731 scopus 로고
    • Stochastic dynamic prediction
    • Epstein, E. S., 1969: Stochastic dynamic prediction. Tellus, 21, 739-759.
    • (1969) Tellus , vol.21 , pp. 739-759
    • Epstein, E.S.1
  • 14
    • 0027089133 scopus 로고
    • Sensitivity analysis using an adjoint of the PSU-NCAR mesoscale model
    • Errico, R. M., and T. Vukicevic, 1992: Sensitivity analysis using an adjoint of the PSU-NCAR mesoscale model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 1644-1660.
    • (1992) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.120 , pp. 1644-1660
    • Errico, R.M.1    Vukicevic, T.2
  • 15
    • 0027872522 scopus 로고
    • Examination of the accuracy of a tangent linear model
    • _, _, and K. Raeder, 1993: Examination of the accuracy of a tangent linear model. Tellus, 45A, 462-477.
    • (1993) Tellus , vol.45 A , pp. 462-477
    • Raeder, K.1
  • 16
    • 0028193070 scopus 로고
    • Sequential data assimilation with a nonlinear quasigeostrophic model using Monte Carlo methods to forecast error statistics
    • Evensen, G., 1994: Sequential data assimilation with a nonlinear quasigeostrophic model using Monte Carlo methods to forecast error statistics. J. Geophys. Res., 99, 10143-10162.
    • (1994) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.99 , pp. 10143-10162
    • Evensen, G.1
  • 17
    • 0025680270 scopus 로고
    • Small error dynamics and the predictability of atmospheric flows
    • Farrell, B., 1990: Small error dynamics and the predictability of atmospheric flows. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 2191-2199.
    • (1990) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.47 , pp. 2191-2199
    • Farrell, B.1
  • 18
    • 0014795829 scopus 로고
    • Statistical-dynamical prediction
    • Gleeson, T. A., 1970: Statistical-dynamical prediction. J. Appl. Meteor., 9, 333-344.
    • (1970) J. Appl. Meteor. , vol.9 , pp. 333-344
    • Gleeson, T.A.1
  • 19
    • 0642345830 scopus 로고
    • Medium-range ensembles using both the ECMSF T63 and unitfied models - An initial report
    • Available from U.K. Meteorological Office. London Road. Bracknell, Berkshire RGIZ 2SZ, U.K.
    • Harrison, M. S. J., D. S. Richardson, K. Robertson, and A. Woodcock, 1995: Medium-range ensembles using both the ECMSF T63 and unitfied models - An initial report. UKMO Tech. Rep. 153, 25 pp. [Available from U.K. Meteorological Office. London Road. Bracknell, Berkshire RGIZ 2SZ, U.K.]
    • (1995) UKMO Tech. Rep. 153
    • Harrison, M.S.J.1    Richardson, D.S.2    Robertson, K.3    Woodcock, A.4
  • 21
    • 0027880823 scopus 로고
    • Global and local skill forecasts
    • Houtekamer, P. L., 1993: Global and local skill forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 1834-1846.
    • (1993) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.121 , pp. 1834-1846
    • Houtekamer, P.L.1
  • 22
    • 0001335449 scopus 로고
    • The construction of optimal perturbations
    • _, 1995: The construction of optimal perturbations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 2888-2898.
    • (1995) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.123 , pp. 2888-2898
  • 23
    • 0028586445 scopus 로고
    • Prediction experiments with two-member ensembles
    • _, and J. Derome, 1994: Prediction experiments with two-member ensembles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 2179-2191.
    • (1994) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.122 , pp. 2179-2191
    • Derome, J.1
  • 24
    • 0001400538 scopus 로고
    • Methods for ensemble prediction
    • _, and _, 1995: Methods for ensemble prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 2181-2196.
    • (1995) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.123 , pp. 2181-2196
  • 25
    • 0001209566 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A system simulation approach to ensemble prediction
    • _, L. Lefaivre, J. Derome, H. Ritchie, and H. L. Mitchell, 1996: A system simulation approach to ensemble prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 1225-1242.
    • (1996) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.124 , pp. 1225-1242
    • Lefaivre, L.1    Derome, J.2    Ritchie, H.3    Mitchell, H.L.4
  • 26
    • 0023469647 scopus 로고
    • Forecasting forecast skill
    • Kalnay, E., and A. Dalcher, 1987: Forecasting forecast skill. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 349-356.
    • (1987) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.115 , pp. 349-356
    • Kalnay, E.1    Dalcher, A.2
  • 27
    • 0000630257 scopus 로고
    • Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts
    • Leith, C. E., 1974: Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev.,102, 409-418.
    • (1974) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.102 , pp. 409-418
    • Leith, C.E.1
  • 28
    • 85033303535 scopus 로고
    • Numerical studies on the Lorenz-84 atmosheric model
    • Available from Dept. of Mathematics. Utrecht University. Box 80010, Utrecht 3508 TA, the Netherlands
    • Leonardo, A., 1995: Numerical studies on the Lorenz-84 atmosheric model. Department of Mathematics Tech. Rep., 49 pp. [Available from Dept. of Mathematics. Utrecht University. Box 80010, Utrecht 3508 TA, the Netherlands.]
    • (1995) Department of Mathematics Tech. Rep.
    • Leonardo, A.1
  • 29
    • 84977734669 scopus 로고
    • The statistical structure of short-range forecast errors as determined from radiosonde data. Part II. The covariance of heigher and wind errors
    • Lonnberg, P., and A. Hollingsworth, 1986: The statistical structure of short-range forecast errors as determined from radiosonde data. Part II. The covariance of heigher and wind errors. Tellus. 38A, 137-161.
    • (1986) Tellus , vol.38 A , pp. 137-161
    • Lonnberg, P.1    Hollingsworth, A.2
  • 30
    • 0000241853 scopus 로고
    • Deterministic nonperiodic flow
    • Lorenz, E. N., 1963: Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130-141.
    • (1963) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.20 , pp. 130-141
    • Lorenz, E.N.1
  • 31
    • 0021585272 scopus 로고
    • Irregularity: A fundamental property of the atmosphere
    • _, 1984: Irregularity: A fundamental property of the atmosphere. Tellus. 36A, 98-110.
    • (1984) Tellus , vol.36 A , pp. 98-110
  • 32
    • 0001511231 scopus 로고
    • On the nonexistence of a slow manifold
    • _, and V. Krishnamurthy, 1987: On the nonexistence of a slow manifold. J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 2940-2950.
    • (1987) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.44 , pp. 2940-2950
    • Krishnamurthy, V.1
  • 33
    • 0025627444 scopus 로고
    • Regimes in the wintertime circulation over the northern extratropics. II: Consequences for dynamical predictability
    • Molteni, F., and S. Tibaldi. 1990: Regimes in the wintertime circulation over the northern extratropics. II: Consequences for dynamical predictability. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 116, 1263-1288.
    • (1990) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.116 , pp. 1263-1288
    • Molteni, F.1    Tibaldi, S.2
  • 34
    • 0026306117 scopus 로고
    • A real-time scheme for the prediction of forecast skill
    • _, and T. N. Palmer, 1991: A real-time scheme for the prediction of forecast skill. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 1088-1097.
    • (1991) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.119 , pp. 1088-1097
    • Palmer, T.N.1
  • 35
    • 0029753275 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The ECMWF ensemble prediction system Methodology and validation
    • _, R. Buizza, T. N. Palmer. and T. Petroliagis, 1996: The ECMWF ensemble prediction system Methodology and validation. Quart. J. Roy Meteor. Soc., 122, 73-120.
    • (1996) Quart. J. Roy Meteor. Soc. , vol.122 , pp. 73-120
    • Buizza, R.1    Palmer, T.N.2    Petroliagis, T.3
  • 36
    • 0027430506 scopus 로고
    • Ensemble prediction using dynamically-conditioned perturbations
    • Mureau, R., F. Molteni, and T. N. Palmer, 1993: Ensemble prediction using dynamically-conditioned perturbations. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 119, 299-323.
    • (1993) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.119 , pp. 299-323
    • Mureau, R.1    Molteni, F.2    Palmer, T.N.3
  • 37
    • 0027789670 scopus 로고
    • Extended-range atmospheric prediction and the Lorenz model
    • Palmer, T. N., 1993: Extended-range atmospheric prediction and the Lorenz model. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74, 49-66.
    • (1993) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.74 , pp. 49-66
    • Palmer, T.N.1
  • 39
    • 0027040023 scopus 로고
    • The National Meteorological Center's spectral statistical-interpolation analysis system
    • Parrish, D. F., and J. C. Derber, 1992: The National Meteorological Center's spectral statistical-interpolation analysis system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 1747-1763.
    • (1992) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.120 , pp. 1747-1763
    • Parrish, D.F.1    Derber, J.C.2
  • 40
    • 0027705108 scopus 로고
    • Operational ensemble forecasting at NMC: Practical aspects
    • Tracton, S., and E. Kalnay, 1993: Operational ensemble forecasting at NMC: Practical aspects. Wea. Forecasting. 8, 379-398.
    • (1993) Wea. Forecasting. , vol.8 , pp. 379-398
    • Tracton, S.1    Kalnay, E.2
  • 41
    • 0001509508 scopus 로고
    • Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations
    • Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1993: Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74, 2317-2330.
    • (1993) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.74 , pp. 2317-2330
    • Toth, Z.1    Kalnay, E.2
  • 42
    • 5544320754 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • NMC Office Note 407, [Available from NOAA/ NWS/NCEP/EMC, 5200 Auth Road, Camp Springs, MD 20746.]
    • _, and _, 1996: Ensemble forecasting at NMC and the breeding method. NMC Office Note 407, 58 pp. [Available from NOAA/ NWS/NCEP/EMC, 5200 Auth Road, Camp Springs, MD 20746.]
    • (1996) Ensemble Forecasting at NMC and the Breeding Method
  • 43
    • 0026302243 scopus 로고
    • Nonlinear and linear evolution of initial forecast errors
    • Vukicevic, T., 1991: Nonlinear and linear evolution of initial forecast errors. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 1602-1611.
    • (1991) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.119 , pp. 1602-1611
    • Vukicevic, T.1
  • 44
    • 0001505235 scopus 로고
    • Use of an adjoint model for finding triggers for alpine lee cyclogenesis
    • _, and K. Raeder, 1995: Use of an adjoint model for finding triggers for alpine lee cyclogenesis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 800-816.
    • (1995) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.123 , pp. 800-816
    • Raeder, K.1
  • 45
    • 0000050270 scopus 로고
    • Three years of operational prediction of forecast skill at NMC
    • Wobus, R. L., and E. Kalnay, 1995: Three years of operational prediction of forecast skill at NMC. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 2132-2148.
    • (1995) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.123 , pp. 2132-2148
    • Wobus, R.L.1    Kalnay, E.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.