Estimating the residency expansion required to avoid projected primary care physician shortages by 2013

Annals of Family Medicine

Volumn 13, Issue 2, 2015, Pages 107-114

  Petterson, Stephen M ^a   Liaw, Winston R ^b   Tran, Carol ^c   Bazemore, Andrew W ^a  

^a Robert Graham Center   (United States)

^b VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Graduate medical education; Health policy; Health services research; Internship and residency

Indexed keywords

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGE; AGED; CHILD; EDUCATION; GENERAL PRACTICE; GENERAL PRACTITIONER; HEALTH CARE POLICY; HEALTH SERVICE; HUMAN; INTERNAL MEDICINE; MANPOWER; MEDICAL EDUCATION; MIDDLE AGED; NEWBORN; PEDIATRICS; PRESCHOOL CHILD; PRIMARY HEALTH CARE; RETIREMENT; STATISTICS AND NUMERICAL DATA; SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION; UNITED STATES; YOUNG ADULT;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGE FACTORS; AGED; CHILD; CHILD, PRESCHOOL; EDUCATION, MEDICAL, GRADUATE; FAMILY PRACTICE; HEALTH POLICY; HEALTH SERVICES NEEDS AND DEMAND; HUMANS; INFANT, NEWBORN; INTERNAL MEDICINE; INTERNSHIP AND RESIDENCY; MIDDLE AGED; PEDIATRICS; PHYSICIANS, PRIMARY CARE; PRIMARY HEALTH CARE; RETIREMENT; UNITED STATES; YOUNG ADULT;

EID: 84924293929     PISSN: 15441709     EISSN: 15441717     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1370/afm.1760     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. Brownlee S. Overtreated. New York, NY: Bloomsbury; 2007.
2. Berwick DM, Hackbarth AD. Eliminating waste in US health care. JAMA. 2012;307(14):1513-1516.
3. Johnson PJ, Ghildayal N, Ward AC, Westgard BC, Boland LL, Hokanson JS. Disparities in potentially avoidable emergency department (ED) care: ED visits for ambulatory care sensitive conditions. Med Care. 2012;50(12):1020-1028.
4. Vats S, Ash AS, Ellis RP. Bending the cost curve? Results from a comprehensive primary care payment pilot. Med Care. 2013;51(11): 964-969.
5. Phillips RL, Pugno PA, Saultz JW, et al. Health is primary: family medicine for America’s health. Ann Fam Med. 2014;12(Suppl_1):S1-S12. http://annfammed.org/content/12/Suppl_1.
6. Colwill JM, Cultice JM, Kruse RL. Will generalist physician supply meet demands of an increasing and aging population? Health Aff (Millwood). 2008;27(3):w232-w241.
7. Dill MJ, Salsberg ES. The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections Through 2025. Washington, DC: Association of American Medical Colleges; 2008.
8. Health Resources and Services Administration Bureau of Health. Professions, & National Center for Health Workforce Analysis. Projecting the Supply and Demand for Primary Care Practitioners Through 2020. 2013. http://bhpr.hrsa.gov/healthworkforce/supplydemand/usworkforce/primarycare/projectingprimarycare.pdf.Accessed May 10, 2014.
9. Petterson SM, Liaw WR, Phillips RL Jr, Rabin DL, Meyers DS, Bazemore AW. Projecting US primary care physician workforce needs: 2010-2025. Ann Fam Med. 2012;10(6):503-509.
10. Health Resources and Services Administration Bureau of Health Professions. Physician Supply and Demand: Projections to 2020. 2006. http://bhpr.hrsa.gov/healthworkforce/supplydemand/medicine/physician2020projections.pdf. Accessed May 10, 2014.
11. Jolly P, Erikson C, Garrison GUS. US graduate medical education and physician specialty choice. Acad Med. 2013;88(4):468-474.
12. Chen C, Petterson S, Phillips RL, Mullan F, Bazemore A, O’Donnell SD. Toward graduate medical education (GME) accountability: measuring the outcomes of GME institutions. Acad Med. 2013;88(9): 1267-1280.
13. Kuo YF, Sharma G, Freeman JL, Goodwin JS. Growth in the care of older patients by hospitalists in the United States. N Engl J Med. 2009;360(11):1102-1112.
14. Reid RJ, Fishman PA, Yu O, et al. Patient-centered medical home demonstration: a prospective, quasi-experimental, before and after evaluation. Am J Manag Care. 2009;15(9):e71-e87.
15. Altschuler J, Margolius D, Bodenheimer T, Grumbach K. Estimating a reasonable patient panel size for primary care physicians with team-based task delegation. Ann Fam Med. 2012;10(5):396-400.
16. Alexander GC, Kurlander J, Wynia MK. Physicians in retainer (“concierge”) practice. A national survey of physician, patient, and practice characteristics. J Gen Intern Med. 2005;20(12):1079-1083.
17. Wu WN, Bliss G, Bliss EB, Green LA. Practice profile. A direct primary care medical home: the Qliance experience. Health Aff (Millwood). 2010;29(5):959-962.
18. Willard-Grace R, Hessler D, Rogers E, Dubé K, Bodenheimer T, Grumbach K. Team structure and culture are associated with lower burnout in primary care. J Am Board Fam Med. 2014;27(2):229-238.
19. Bureau of the Census. Table 2: Projections of the population by selected age groups and sex for the United States: 2010 to 2050 (NP2008-T2). In: Population Division, US Census Bureau. Washington, DC: Population Division, US Census Bureau; 2008.
20. Hofer AN, Abraham JM, Moscovice I. Expansion of coverage under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act and primary care utilization. Milbank Q. 2011;89(1):69-89.
21. Huang ES, Finegold K. Seven million Americans live in areas where demand for primary care may exceed supply by more than 10 percent. Health Aff (Millwood). 2013;32(3):614-621.
22. American Board of Internal Medicine. Resident & fellow workforce data. 2013. http://www.abim.org/about/examInfo/data-workforce. aspx. Accessed Nov 5, 2014.
23. American Board of Pediatrics. Workforce data 2013-2014. https://www.abp.org/abpwebsite/stats/wrkfrc/workforcebook.pdf. AccessedJun 20, 2014.
24. DeRosier A, Lischka TA, Martinez B. Appendix 1: Osteopathic graduate medical education 2014. J Am Osteopath Assoc. 2014;114(4): 299-303.
25. Pete Welch W, Stearns SC, Cuellar AE, Bindman AB. Use of hospitalists by Medicare beneficiaries: a national picture. Medicare Medicaid Res Rev. 2014;4(2):E1-E8.
26. Pisacano NJ. History of the specialty. https://www.theabfm.org/about/history.aspx. Accessed Oct 17, 2014.
27. Macy J Jr. Foundation. Revisiting the medical school educational mission at a time of expansion. 2008. http://macyfoundation.org/docs/macy_pubs/Macy_MedSchoolMission_proceedings_06-09.pdf.Accessed Oct 17, 2014.
28. Petterson S, Burke M, Phillips R, Teevan B. Accounting for graduate medical education production of primary care physicians and general surgeons: timing of measurement matters. Acad Med. 2011;86(5):605-608.
29. Chen C, Chen F, Mullan F. Teaching health centers: a new paradigm in graduate medical education. Acad Med. 2012;87(12):1752-1756.
30. Patterson DG, Longenecker R, Schmitz D, Phillips RL Jr, Skillman SM, Doescher MP. Rural residency training for family medicine physicians: graduate early-career outcomes, 2008-2012. 2013. http://depts.washington.edu/uwrhrc/uploads/RTT_Grad_Outcomes_PB_2013.pdf. Accessed Jul 11, 2014.
31. Reddy AT, Lazreg SA, Phillips RL Jr, Bazemore AW, Lucan SC. Toward defining and measuring social accountability in graduate medical education: a stakeholder study. J Grad Med Educ. 2013;5(3):439-445.
32. Council on Graduate Medical Education. Twenty-First Report: Improving Value in Graduate Medical Education. Washington, DC: Health Resources and Services Administration; 2013.
33. Institute of Medicine. Graduate Medication Education That Meets the Nation’s Health Needs. Washington, DC: National Academies Press; 2014.
34. H.R. 3590. Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. 2010. https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/111/hr3590/text. Accessed Nov 5, 2014.
35. Phillips RL Jr, Bronnikov S, Petterson S, et al. Case study of a primary care-based accountable care system approach to medical home transformation. J Ambul Care Manage. 2011;34(1):67-77.
36. Blanchfield BB, Heffernan JL, Osgood B, Sheehan RR, Meyer GS. Saving billions of dollars—and physicians’ time—by streamlining billing practices. Health Aff (Millwood). 2010;29(6):1248-1254.
37. Shipman SA, Sinsky CA. Expanding primary care capacity by reducing waste and improving the efficiency of care. Health Aff (Millwood). 2013;32(11):1990-1997.
38. Sinsky CA, Willard-Grace R, Schutzbank AM, Sinsky TA, Margolius D, Bodenheimer T. In search of joy in practice: a report of 23 high-functioning primary care practices. Ann Fam Med. 2013;11(3): 272-278.
39. Watson DE, Slade S, Buske L, Tepper J. Intergenerational differences in workloads among primary care physicians: a ten-year, populationbased study. Health Aff (Millwood). 2006;25(6):1620-1628.
40. Association of American Medical Colleges. 2012 Physician Specialty Data Book. Washington, DC: Association of American Medical Colleges; 2012.
41. Association of American Medical Colleges. 2008 Physician Specialty Data Book. Washington, DC: Association of American Medical Colleges; 2008.
42. Hedden L, Barer ML, Cardiff K, McGrail KM, Law MR, Bourgeault IL. The implications of the feminization of the primary care physician workforce on service supply: a systematic review. Hum Resour Health. 2014;12:32.
43. American College of Physicians. How Is a Shortage of Primary Care Physicians Affecting the Quality and cost of Medical Care? 2008. http://www.acponline.org/advocacy/current_policy_papers/assets/primary_shortage.pdf. Accessed May 10, 2014.
44. Scroggs JA, Griffin LP, Bayerl M, Schulkin J. Obstetriciangynecologists as primary care physicians: the perspectives of health maintenance organization medical directors and obstetriciangynecologists. Obstet Gynecol. 1997;90(2):291-295.
45. Lentz GM, Ayala L, Eckert LO. A comprehensive women’s health care center: are gynecologists offering primary care? Am J Obstet Gynecol. 2006;194(6):1660–1666; discussion 1666–1667.
46. Auerbach DI, Chen PG, Friedberg MW, et al. Nurse-managed health centers and patient-centered medical homes could mitigate expected primary care physician shortage. Health Aff (Millwood). 2013;32(11):1933-1941.
47. Doescher MP, Andrilla CHA, Skillman SM, Morgan P, Kaplan L. The contribution of physicians, physician assistants, and nurse practitioners toward rural primary care: findings from a 13-state survey. Med Care. 2014;52(6):549-556.
48. Hooker RS, McCaig LF. Use of physician assistants and nurse practitioners in primary care, 1995-1999. Health Aff (Millwood). 2001; 20(4):231-238.
49. Petterson SM, Phillips RL Jr, Bazemore AW, Teevan Burke B, Koinis GT. Relying on NPs and PAs does not avoid the need for policy solutions for primary care. Am Fam Physician. 2013;88(4):230.
50. Goolsby MJ. 2004 AANP National Nurse Practitioner Sample Survey, part I: an overview. J Am Acad Nurse Pract. 2005;17(9):337-341.
51. Goolsby MJ. 2009-2010 AANP national nurse practitioner sample survey: an overview. J Am Acad Nurse Pract. 2011;23(5):266-268.
52. Green LA, Dodoo MS, Ruddy G, et al. The physician workforce of the United States: A family medicine perspective. 2004. http://www.graham-center.org/online/etc/medialib/graham/documents/publications/mongraphs-books/2004/rgcmo-physician-workforce.Par.0001.File.tmp/rgcmo-physician-workforce.pdf. Accessed May 14, 2014.
53. Council on Graduate Medical Education. Physician Distribution and Health Care Challenges in Rural and Inner-City Areas. Washington, DC: US Department of Health and Human Services, Health Resources and Services Administration; 1998.