Forbidden Fruit: Counterfactuals and International Relations

Forbidden Fruit: Counterfactuals and International Relations

Volumn , Issue , 2010, Pages 1-335

  Lebow, Richard Ned ^a  

^a NONE

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References (365)

1. Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein, "Back to the Past: Counterfactuals and the Cuban Missile Crisis," in Philip E. Tetlock and Aaron Belkin, eds. Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological and Psychological Perspectives (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996), pp. 119-48.
2. Richard Ned Lebow, "What's So Different about a Counterfactual?" World Politics 52 (July 2000), pp. 550-85, and "Contingency, Catalysts and International System Change," Political Science Quarterly 115 (Winter 2000-2001), pp. 591-616.
3. Philip E. Tetlock and Richard Ned Lebow, "Poking Counterfactual Holes in Covering Laws: Cognitive Styles and Political Learning," American Political Science Review 95 (December 2001), pp. 829-43.
4. Philip E. Tetlock, Richard Ned Lebow, and Geoffrey Parker, eds., Unmaking the West: "What-If" Scenarios that Rewrite World History. (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2006).
5. George Breslauer and Richard Ned Lebow, "Leadership and the End of the Cold War: A Counterfactual Thought Experiment," in Richard K. Herrmann and Richard Ned Lebow, eds., Ending the Cold War (New York: Palgrave-Macmillan, 2003), pp. 161-88.
6. James Joyce, Ulysses (New York: Random House, 1990), p. 25.
7. Ezekiel 28:12-19, for a variant.
8. Richard Ned Lebow, Gardens of Eden (in progress), ch. 1, for a sociological analysis of this and other Golden Age myths.
9. Richard Ned Lebow and Mark Irving Lichbach, Theory and Evidence in Comparative Politics and International Relations (New York: Palgrave, 2007), for a dialog among researchers from different traditions and approaches, all of whom take evidence seriously and recognize the problems their own preferred approach has in its collection and evaluation.
10. King, Keohane, and Verba, Designing Social Inquiry, ignore this important condition and goal of science.
11. See Alan Beyerchen, "Clausewitz, Nonlinearity and the Unpredictability of War," International Security, 17, no. 3 (Winter, 1992), pp. 59-90.
12. Max Horkheimer and Theodor W. Adorno, Dialectic of Enlightenment, trans. John Cumming (New York: Columbia University Press, 2001 [1944]); Joseph S. Nye Jr., Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power (New York: Basic Books, 1990).
13. For one of the first challenges to the conventional wisdom about the war's near inevitability, see Holger Afflerbach and David Stevenson, eds., An Improbable War: The Outbreak of World War I and European Political Culture Before 1914 (New York: Berghahn Books, 2007).
14. On this last point, see the thoughtful essay by Ian Clark, "Democracy in International Society," forthcoming in Millennium.
15. Richard E. Neustadt interview with Maxwell C. Taylor, Washington, D.C., 28 June 1983, in Proceedings of the Hawk's Cay Conference, 5-8 March 1987 (Cambridge: Harvard University Center for Science and International Affairs, Working Paper 89-1, 1989), mimeograph, p. 72.
16. Richard K. Herrmann and Richard Ned Lebow, "Policymakers and the Cold War's End: Micro and Macro Assessments of Contingency," Cold War International History Project Bulletin, no. 12/13 (Fall/Winter 2001), pp. 337-40.
17. Norman Angell, The Great Illusion: A Study of the Relation of Military Power in Nations to Their Economic and Social Advantage (London, Heinemann, 1910); Friedrich von Bernhardi, Deutschland und der nächste Krieg (Germany and the Next War), 2 vols. (Stuttgart: Cotta, 1912).
18. John Herz, International Politics in the Atomic Age (New York: Columbia University Press, 1959), p. 29.
19. Philip E. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment. How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2005), ch. 2, for the consistent failure of point predictions by experts and their general reluctance to acknowledge their failures.
20. Daniel Bell, The End of Ideology: On the Exhaustion of Political Ideas in the 1950s (Glencoe, Ill.: Free Press, 1960); Francis Fukuyama, The End of History and the Last Man (New York: Free Press, 1992).
21. Thomas Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree (New York: Farrar, Strauss and Giroux, 1999).
22. Susan Stokes, "Region, Contingency, and Democratization," in Ian Shapiro and Sonu Bedi, Political Contingency: Studying the Unexpected, the Accidental, and the Unforeseen (New York: New York University Press, 2007), pp. 171-202, makes the case for the contingent nature of democratization.
23. Per Bak and K. Chen, "Self-Organized Criticality," Scientific American 264 (January 1991), pp. 46-53
24. James Gleick, Chaos: Making a New Science (New York: Viking, 1987), for further elaboration.
25. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment, pp. 140-41, makes a similar although somewhat different point, arguing that the hindsight bias and belief-system defenses reinforce our self-images as rational beings.
26. David Hume, An Inquiry Concerning Human Understanding, ed. Tom L. Beauchamp (Oxford: Oxford University Pres, 1999), Part III, Book 2, sect. 9.
27. Martin Heidegger, Being and Time, trans. John MacQuarrie and Edward Robinson (London: SCM Press, 1962 [1927]), 18th Auflage.
28. Max Weber, "Science as a Vocation," in H. H. Gerth and C. Wright Mills, trans. and eds., From Max Weber: Essays in Sociology (London: Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1948), pp. 129-58.
29. Max Weber, "Objectivity" in Social Science and Social Policy," in Edward A. Shils and Henry A. Finch, eds., Max Weber, The Methodology of the Social Sciences (Glencoe, Ill.: Free Press, 1949 [1904]), ch. 2.
30. Richard Thayer, "Anomalies: The January Effect," The Journal of Economic Perspectives 1, no. 1 (Summer 1987), pp. 197-201. A large fraction of the annual gains in this market used to occur in January, but no longer did so the moment the phenomenon was discovered and publicized.
31. Gabriel Almond, "Clouds, Clocks, and the Study of World Politics," World Politics. 29 (1977), pp. 496-522.
32. James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin, "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War," American Political Science Review, 97, no. 1 (2003), pp. 75-90.
33. Philip E. Tetlock, "Close-Call Counterfactuals and Belief System Defenses: I Was Not Almost Wrong but I Was Almost Right," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 75 (1998), pp. 230-42, and Expert Political Judgment, chs. 2 and 5.
34. Hans J. Morgenthau, Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace (New York: Alfred Knopf, 1948); Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1979); John Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: Norton, 2001), are cases in point.
35. General Anatoliy Gribkov, "Operation 'Anadyr,'" Der Spiegel, no. 16, 1992, pp. 152-54; Lebow and Stein, We All Lost the Cold War, pp. 294-95.
36. Richard Ned Lebow, The Tragic Vision of Politics: Ethics, Interests and Orders (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003).
37. Diedre McCloskey, "History, Differential Equations, and the Problem of Narration," History and Theory 30 (1999), pp. 21-36.
38. Friedrich Nietzsche, Beyond Good and Evil, in Walter Kaufmann, ed., The Basic Writings of Nietzsche (New York: Modern Library, 1966), pp. 179-436.
39. Weber, "The Meaning of Ethical Neutrality in the Social Sciences," and " 'Objectivity' in Social Science and Social Policy," in Shils and Henry A. Finch, eds. and trans. The Methodology of the Social Sciences (Glencoe, Ill.: Free Press, 1949).
40. Tracy B. Strong, Thinking without a Banister: Essays on the Aesthetics in Political Thinkers of the Early Twentieth Century (forthcoming), ch.3
41. King, Keohane, and Verba, Designing Social Inquiry, cited earlier, pp. 62-63.
42. Michael P. Colaresi, Karen Rasler, and William N. Thompson, eds. Strategic Rivalries in World Politics: Position, Space and Conflict Escalation (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007).
43. Lebow, A Cultural Theory of International Relations, ch. 8.
44. Richard Ned Lebow, "Contingency, Catalysts and International System Change," Political Science Quarterly 115 (Winter 2000-2001), pp. 591-616.
45. George W. Breslauer and Richard Ned Lebow, "Leadership and the End of the Cold War: A Counterfactual Thought Experiment," in Richard K. Herrmann and Richard Ned Lebow, eds., Ending the Cold War (New York: Palgrave- Macmillan, 2006), pp. 161-88.
46. Philip A. Tetlock and Richard Ned Lebow, "Poking Counterfactual Holes in Covering Laws: Cognitive Styles and Political Learning," American Political Science Review 95 (December 2001), pp. 829-43.
47. Aristotle, Poetics, 1451a38-b11.
48. On the latter view, see Mary Poovey, A History of Modern Face: Problems of Knowledge in the Sciences of Wealth and Society (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1998), p. 15 and ch. 3.
49. Everett Zimmerman, The Boundaries of Fiction: History of the Eighteenth- Century British Novel (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1996).
50. James Longenbach, Modernist Poetics of History: Pound, Eliot, and the Sense of the Past (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1987), ch. 10.
51. Friedrich Nietzsche, The Birth of Tragedy, in Basic Writings of Nietzsche, trans. and ed., Walter Kaufmann (New York: Modern Library, 1962), sections 1 and 3.
52. Lionel Grossman "History and Literature: Reproduction or Signification," in Robert H. Canary and Henry Kozicki, eds., Writing of History: Literary Form and Historical Understanding (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1978), pp. 3-39, on the changing relationship of literature to history.
53. Sinclair Lewis, It Can't Happen Here (Garden City: Doubleday Doran, 1935)
54. Philip Roth, The Plot Against America (Boston: Houghton-Mifflin, 2004).
55. David Hume, An Inquiry Concerning Human Understanding, ed. Tom L. Beauchamp (Oxford University Press, 1999), in Section 3, "Of the Association of Ideas," p.102.
56. Douglas R. Hofstadter, Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Brain (New York: Vintage, 1979), and Metamagical Themas: Questing for the Essence of Mind and Pattern (New York: Basic Books, 1985), p. 232.
57. H. J. Einhorn and R. M. Hogarth, "Judging Probable Cause," Psychological Bulletin 99 (1986), pp. 3-19, on proxy experiments.
58. Philip E. Tetlock and Aaron Belkin, "Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics," in Tetlock and Belkin, Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, pp. 1-38.
59. Philip E. Tetlock and Geoffrey Parker, "Counterfactual Thought Experiments," in Philip E. Tetlock, Richard Ned Lebow, and Geoffrey Parker, Unmaking the West: "What-If"? Scenarios that Remake World History (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2006), pp. 14-46.
60. Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein, "Back to the Past: Counterfactuals and the Cuban Missile Crisis," in Tetlock and Belkin, Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, pp. 119-48, for our dissent.
61. Neal J. Roese and James M. Olson, "Counterfactual Thinking: A Critical Overview," in Roese and Olson, What Might Have Been, pp. 1-56.
62. Nelson Goodman, "The Problem of Counterfactual Conditionals," Journal of Philosophy 44 (1947), pp. 113-28.
63. Brian Skyrms, Causal Necessity (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1980), p. 95-102 on subjective conditionals.
64. New York Times, 27 November 1999, p. A1.
65. Yuen Foong Khong, "Confronting Hitler and Its Consequences," in Tetlock and Aaron Belkin, Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, pp. 95-118.
66. Lebow and Stein, "Back to the Past: Counterfactuals and the Cuban Missile Crisis."
67. Jay M. Winter, The Great War and the British People (London: Macmillan, 1986), 76-83.
68. Victoria Tin-bor Hui, War and State Formation in Ancient China and Early Modern Europe (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005). See also R. Bin Wong, China Transformed: Historical Change and the Limits of the European Experience (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1997).
69. Kenneth Pomeranz, The Great Divergence: Europe, China and the Making of the World Economy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 200) and "Counterfactuals and Industrialization in Europe and China," in Tetlock, Lebow, and Parker, Unmaking the West, pp. 241-76.
70. Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein, We All Lost the Cold War (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994).
71. Mark Elvin, The Pattern of the Chinese Past: A Social and Economic Interpretation (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1973).
72. E. H. Carr, Socialism in One Country, 1924-1926, 3 vols. (New York: Macmillan, 1958-1964), vol. 1, p. 151.
73. John Lukacs, "Counterfactual Is Wrong," Historically Speaking, 7, no. 2 (November-December 2005), and Five Days in London May 1940 (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1999); Richard Ned Lebow, "John Lukacs, Meet Madame Jourdain," Historically Speaking 7, no. 4 (March/April 2006), pp. 50-51.
74. Lebow and Stein, We All Lost the Cold War, ch. 4; Raymond L. Garthoff, Reflections on the Cuban Missile Crisis, rev. ed. (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 1989), for this evidence.
75. Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1976), pp. 17-42, 128-30, 187-91; Irving L. Janis and Leon Mann, Decision Making: A Psychological Analysis of Conflict, Choice, and Commitment (New York: Free Press, 1977), pp. 15, 55-57, 73.
76. G.E.M. Anscombe, "On Brute Facts," Analysis, 18 (1958), pp. 69-72.
77. John R. Searle, The Construction of Social Reality (New York: Free Press, 1995).
78. Donald Davidson and Jaakko Hintikka, eds., Words and Objections: Essays on the work of W. V. Quine (Dordrecht, D. Reidel, 1969).
79. L. Ross, M. R. Lepper, F. Strack, and J. Steinmetz, "Social Explanation and Social Expectation: Effects of Real and Hypothetical Explanations on Subjective Likelihood," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 35 (1977), pp. 817-29.
80. Leften Stavros Stavrianos et al, A Global History of Man (Boston: Allyn and Bacon, 1966).
81. Hui, Rethinking War, State Formation, and System Formation, p. 7.
82. Kwang-chih Chang, Art, Myth and Ritual: The Path to Political Authority in Ancient China, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1983), pp. 128-29.
83. Donald Green and Alan S. Gerber, "Reclaiming the Experimental Tradition in Political Science." In Helen V. Milner and Ira Katznelson, eds., Political Science: The State of the Discipline, 3rd ed. (New York: Norton , 2002), pp. 805-32.
84. Lars-Eric Cederman, "Rerunning History: Counterfactuals Simulation in World Politics," in Tetlock and Belkin, Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, pp. 247-67.
85. George W. Breslauer, "Counterfactuals Reasoning in Western Studies of Soviet Politics and Foreign Relations," in Tetlock and Belkin, Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, pp. 69-94, discusses this literature.
86. Tetlock, Lebow, and Parker, Unmaking the West.
87. Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein, We All Lost the Cold War (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994), for a strong statement of this argument.
88. Paul Johnson, "Glad Bush Is Still Around," Forbes, 5 May 2008. http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2008/0505/027.html.
89. See Yuen Foong Khong, Analogies at War: Korea, Munich, Dien Bien Phu, and the Vietnam Decisions of 1965 (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1992), for a strong statement of the former position with regard to historical analogies.
90. Alessandro Portelli, "Uchronic Dreams: Working-Class Memory and Possible Worlds," in The Death of Luigi Trastulli and Other Stories: Form and Meaning in Oral History (Albany: State University of New York Press, 1991), pp. 99-116.
91. Andrew D. Galinsky, Katie A. Liljenquist, Laura J. Kray, and Neal J. Roese, "Finding Meaning from Mutability," in David R. Mandel, Denis J. Hilton and Patrizia Catellani, The Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking (London: Routledge, 2005), pp. 111-25.
92. Tetlock and Belkin, "Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics," for a discussion of these two kinds of counterfactuals.
93. John Elster, Logic and Society: Contradictions and Possible Worlds (New York: John Wiley, 1978); Geoffrey Hawthorn, Plausible Worlds: Possibility and Understanding in History and the Social Sciences (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1991), pp. 31-60.
94. This is a variant of the counterfactual (Bosnians as bottle-nosed dophins) used Tetlock and Belkin, Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, p. 14, fn. 23.
95. Ludwig Dehio, The Precarious Balance: Four Centuries of the European Power Struggle (New York: Knopf, 1995), argues that competition among many independent units produced "fertile friction" among Greek city-states and in modern Europe.
96. Andrew Marvell, "To His Coy Mistress," Hug MacDonald, ed., Andrew Marvell (London: Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1952), pp. 21-22.
97. Francis Kaplan, ed., Les Pensées de Pascal (Paris: Les Éditions du Cerf, 1982), p. 209.
98. René de Doscinny and Albert de Uderzo, Astérix et Cleopatre (Neuilly-sur- Seine: Dargaud, 1965). Is it a coincidence that this publishing house is located at 12, rue Blaise-Pascal? The Turkish saying was brought to my attention by Prof. Orhan Tekelioglu of Bilkent University.
99. Niall Ferguson, ed. Virtual History: Alternatives and Counterfactuals (New York: Basic Books, 1999) and The Pity of War: Explaining World War I (New York: Basic Books, 1999).
100. Ferguson, ed. Virtual History, pp. 11-12.
101. Max Weber, "Objective Possibility and Adequate Causation in Historical Explanation," in The Methodology of the Social Sciences (Glencoe, Ill.: Free Press of Glencoe, 1949 [1905]), pp. 164-88.
102. P. Nash, "The Use of Counterfactuals in History: A Look at the Literature," SHAFR Newsletter (March 1991), pp. 2-12, offers a similarly restrictive definition.
103. Cederman, "Rerunning History," pp. 253, 255, for this criticism of Mueller.
104. Tetlock, "Distinguishing Frivolous from Serious Counterfactuals," unpublished paper.
105. Parker, The Grand Strategy of Philip II, pp. 281-96.
106. Fearon, "Causes and Counterfactuals in Social Science," in Tetlock and Belkin, Counterfactual Experiments in World Politics, p. 50.
107. Dawes, "Counterfactual Inferences as Instances of Statistical Inferences," in Tetlock and Belkin, Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, pp. 301-8.
108. Edgar Kiser and Margaret Levi, "Using Counterfactuals in Historical Analysis: Theories of Revolution," in Tetlock and Belkin, Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, pp. 187-210.
109. Elster, Logic and Society, pp. 184-85.
110. Weber, "Counterfactuals, Past and Future," pp. 278, 272.
111. Fearon, "Causes and Counterfactuals in Social Science," p. 54.
112. Richard Ned Lebow, "Contingency, Catalysts and International System Change."
113. Weber, "Counterfactuals, Past and Future."
114. Tetlock and Belkin, "Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics," pp. 16-32; Philip Tetlock, "Distinguishing Frivolous from Serious Counterfactuals" Lebow and Stein, "Back to the Past," pp. 146-47.
115. Geoffrey Hawthorn, Possible Worlds: Possibility and Understanding in History and the Social Sciences (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991), pp. 31-60.
116. Robert Fogel, Railroads and American Economic Growth: Essays in Econometric History (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1964).
117. John Elster, Logic and Society: Contradictions and Possible Worlds (New York: Wiley, 1978), pp. 204-8; Tetlock and Belkin, "Counterfactual Thought Experiments," pp. 22-23.
118. Holger H. Herwig, "Hitler Wins in the East but Still Loses World War II," in Tetlock, Lebow, and Parker, Unmaking the West, pp. 323-62, for the many difficulties standing in the way of German victory in World War II.
119. Weber, "Objective Possibility and Adequate Causation in Historical Explanation."
120. Herwig, "Hitler Wins in the East but Still Loses World War II."
121. Lebow, and Parker, Unmaking the West.
122. Carl von Clausewitz, On War, trans. Michael Howard and Peter Parent (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1976), pp. 119-21.
123. Lebow, Cultural Theory of International Relations, ch. 2 for a critical examination of level of analysis.
124. Carlos N. Eire, "Religious Kitsch or Industrial Revolution," Kenneth Pomeranz, "Without Coal? Colonies? Calculus?" Joel Mokyr, "King Kong and Cold Fusion," in Tetlock, Lebow, and Parker, Unmaking the West, pp. 145-67, 241-76, 277-322.
125. Ross Hassig, Aztec Warfare: Imperial Expansion and Political Control (Norman: University of Oklahoma Press, 1988), pp. 236-51.
126. F. H. Hinsley, "The Origins of the First World War," in Keith Wilson, ed., Decisions for War, 1914 (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1995), p. 4.
127. Franz Conrad von Hötzendorf, Aus meiner Dienstzeit, 5 vols. (Vienna: Rikola, 1921-25), vol. 1, p. 8.
128. Holger Afflerbach, "Topos of Improbable War Before 1914," in Holger Afflerbach and David Stevenson, eds., An Improbable War: The Outbreak of World War I and European Political Culture before 1914 (New York: Berghahn Books, 2007), pp. 161-82.
129. Roger Chickering, "'War Enthusiasm?' Public Opinion and the Outbreak of War in 1914," in Afflerbach and Stevenson, An Improbable War, 200-212. 7. Sidney B. Fay, The Origins of the World War, 2 vols. (New York: Mac millan, 1928).
130. Fritz Fischer, Germany's Aims in the First World War, trans. Marian Jackson (New York: W. W. Norton, 1967) and War of Illusions: German Policies from 1911 to 1914, trans. Marian Jackson (New York: Norton, 1975).
131. R. H. Tawney, The Agrarian Problem in the Sixteenth Century (London: Longmans, Green, 1912), p. 177.
132. Charles Tilly, ed., The Formation of National States in Western Europe (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1975), pp. 9, 14-15.
133. Alexander Demandt, Der Fall Roms: die Auflosung des romischen Reiches im Urteil der Nachwelt (Munich: Beck, 1984), p. 695, found 210 causes for the fall of Rome in the historical literature since 1600.
134. Paul W. Schroeder, "World War I as Galloping Gertie: A Reply to Joachim Remak," Journal of Modern History 44 (1972), pp. 319-45, reasons: "The fact that so many plausible explanations for the outbreak of war have been advanced over the years indicates on the one hand that it was massively overdetermined."
135. Kurt Riezler, Tagebücher, Aufsatze, Dokumente. Eingeleidet und hrs. Von Karl Dietrich Erdmann (Göttingen: Vandenhoeck and Ruprecht, 1972); Koch, ed., The Origins of the First World War, Introduction.
136. Keir A. Lieber, "The New History of World War I and What It Means for International Relations Theory," International Security 32, no. 2 (Fall 2007), pp. 155-91; Lebow, A Cultural Theory of International Relations, ch. 7.
137. Paul W. Schroeder, "World War I as Galloping Gertie: A Reply to Joachim Remak," Journal of Modern History 44 (September 1972), pp. 319-45, is the most forceful and well-respected statement of this argument.
138. D. C. Lieven, Russia and the Origins of the First World War (New York: St. Martin's, 1983); D. W. Spring, "Russia and the Coming of War," in Evans and Pogge von Strandmann, eds., The Coming of the First World War, 57-86.
139. L.C.F. Turner, Origins of the First World War (New York: Norton, 1970), "The Role of the General Staffs in July 1914," Australian Journal of Politics and History 11 (1965), pp. 305-23; "The Russian Mobilization in 1914," Journal of Contemporary History 3 (1968), pp. 65-88.
140. Luigi Albertini, The Origins of the War of 1914, ed. and trans. Isabella M. Massey (London: Oxford University Press, 1953), vol. 2, p. 6, vol. 3, pp. 523
141. Karl Dietrich Erdmann, "War Guilt 1914 Reconsidered: A Balance of New Research," in Koch, The Origins of the First World War, pp. 343-70; Zechlin, Krieg und Kriegrisiko; Jarausch, The Enigmatic Chancellor, pp. 167, 170.
142. Harry Elmer Barnes, The Genesis of the World War: An Introduction to the Problem of War Guilt (New York: Knopf, 1926); Kaiser, "Germany and the Origins of the First World War" in H. W. Koch, ed., The Origins of the First World War 2nd ed. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1984).
143. Karl Popper, The Logic of Scientific Discovery (New York: Harper, 1968).
144. On this distinction, see Isaiah Berlin, The Hedgehog and the Fox (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1966).
145. Imanuel Geiss, ed., Julikrise und Kriegsausbruch des Ersten Weltkrieges (Munich: 1965), ch 1.
146. Robert Jervis, System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1997).
147. Mombauer, Helmuth von Moltke and the Origins of the First World War, pp. 210-13; Hull, The Entourage of Kaiser Wilhelm II, p. 205; John G. Röhl, Germany without Bismarck (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1967), p. 161; Mombauer, Helmuth von Moltke and the Origins of the First World War, p. 24.
148. Richard Ned Lebow, "Beyond Parsimony: Rethinking Theories of Coercive Bargaining," European Journal of International Relations 4 (March 1998), pp. 31-66.
149. Lebow, Between Peace and War, ch. 2.
150. Remak, "1914-the Third Balkan War."
151. Bridge, From Sadowa to Sarajevo, pp. 334-5.
152. Samuel R. Williamson Jr. to the author, 22 January 1999.
153. Albertini, The Origins of the War of 1914, vol. 2, pp. 129-30; Williamson, Austria-Hungary and the Origins of the First World War, p. 85.
154. Williamson, "Influence, Power, and the Policy Process," and Austria- Hungary and the Origins of the First World War, p. 51.
155. Georg Franz, Erzherzog Franz Ferdinand und die Pläne zur Reform der Habsburger Monarchie (Vienna: G.D.W. Callwey, 1943), p. 107, quotes a similar statement to his wife in 1913.
156. Williamson, "Influence, Power, and the Policy Process," and "The Origins of World War I."
157. Williamson, Austria-Hungary and the Coming of the First World War, p. 434; Stevenson, The First World War and International Politics, 14, believes war much less likely in general if Franz Ferdinand had remained alive and continued to exercise restraint in Vienna.
158. Kronenbitter, Krieg im Frieden, pp. 462-65; Leslie, "Antecedents of Austria- Hungary's War Aims" Williamson, Austria-Hungary, pp. 192-94.
159. József Galántai, Hungary in the First World War (Budapest: Akadémiai Kladó, 1989), pp. 100-18; Vermes, István Tisza, pp. 230-31; Williamson, "Influence, Power, and the Policy Process."
160. Konrad Jarausch, e-mail to the author, 4 January 1999.
161. Mombauer, Helmuth von Moltke and the Origins of the First World War, p. 286. Erich von Falkenhayn wrote in his diary on 29 June 1914 that the chancellor wanted Russia to mobilize first so that it would appear "responsible" for the war to German public opinion.
162. Lebow, Between Peace and War, pp. 133-47.
163. Irving L. Janis and Leon Mann, Decision-Making: A Psychological Analysis of Conflict: Choice and Commitment (New York: Free Press, 1977), pp. 59-60, 205; and Lebow, Between Peace and War, pp. 135-45.
164. Lebow, Between Peace and War, pp. 133-47.
165. Dedijer, The Road to Sarajevo, pp. 10-12, 408-9.
166. Herman Kantorowicz, The Spirit of British Policy and the Myth of the Encirclement of Germany (London, 1932), p. 360; and Imanuel Geiss, German Foreign Policy, 1871-1914 (London: Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1976), p. 126.
167. Rogger, "Russia in 1914"
168. Mayer, "Domestic Causes of the First World War."
169. Zeman, "The Balkans and the Coming of War"
170. Dedijer, The Road to Sarajevo, ch. 7.
171. Ritter, The Sword and the Scepter, vol. 2, p. 196.
172. Dennis E. Showalter, "The Eastern Front and German Military Planning, 1871-1914-Some Observations," East European Quarterly 15 (1981), pp. 163-80.
173. Stig Förster, "Der deutsche Generalstab und die Illusion des kurzen Krieges, 1871-1914: Metakritik eines Mythos," Militärgeschichtliche Mitteilungen 54/1 (1995), pp. 61-95.
174. Marginalia on telegram from Lichnowsky to Jagow, 23 July 1914. Quoted in Geiss, July 1914, p. 171.
175. Marginalia on telegram from Lichnowsky to Jagow, 24 July 1914. Quoted in Geiss, July 1914, p. 184. Italics in original.
176. Quoted in Fischer, War of Illusions, p. 478.
177. Offer, "Going to War in 1914"
178. Ritter, The Schlieffen Plan, p. 92.
179. Hajo Holborn, The Political Collapse of Europe (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1963), for an eloquent statement of this argument.
180. For an early argument to this effect, see Gabriel Almond and Stephen J. Genco, "Clouds, Clocks, and the Study of Politics," World Politics 29 (July 1977), pp. 489-522.
181. Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein, "Understanding the End of the Cold War as a Non-Linear Confluence," in Richard K. Herrmann and Richard Ned Lebow, eds., Ending the Cold War (New York: Palgrave, 2004), pp. 189-218.
182. As do Paul Senese and John A. Vasquez, Steps to War: An Empirical Study (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2008).
183. Charles F. Doran and Wes Parsons, "War and the Cycle of Relative Power," The American Political Science Review 74 (December 1960), pp. 947-65.
184. Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics, pp. 191-92, 197.
185. William Wohlforth, "Realism and the End of the Cold War," International Security, 19, no. 3, (Winter 1994-1995), pp. 91-129; Richard N. Lebow, "The Long Peace, the End of the Cold War, and the Failure of Realism," International Organization 48 (1994), pp. 249-77.
186. Lebow, A Cultural Theory of International Relations, ch. 7, for a fuller discussion.
187. Lebow and Stein, "Understanding the End of the Cold War as a NonLinear Confluence," for discussion.
188. Niklas Luhmann, Die Gesellschaft der Gesellschaft, 2 vols. (Frankfurt am Main: Suhrkamp, 1998), I, ch. 2.
189. Richard Thayer, "Anomalies: The January Effect," The Journal of Economic Perspectives 1, no. 1 (Summer 1987), pp. 197-201.
190. Lebow, A Cultural Theory of International Relations, for general theory of international relations based on this premise.
191. On conjunctional causality, see Charles C. Ragin, The Comparative Method: Moving Beyond Qualitative and Quantitative Strategies (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1987), pp. 25-26.
192. William Wohlforth, "New Evidence on Moscow's Cold War: Ambiguity in Search of Theory," Diplomatic History, 21 (Spring 1997), pp. 229-42, reviews this literature and criticizes realists for explaining ex post facto what none of them predicted ex ante.
193. Steven Weber, "Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process," Security Studies 6 (Summer 1997), p. 196.
194. Norman N. Naimark, The Russians in Germany: A History of the Soviet Zone of Occupation, 1945-1949 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1995).
195. Lucius D. Clay, Decision in Germany (New York: Doubleday, 1950), pp. 365-66.
196. Archie Brown, The Gorbachev Factor (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996), pp. 82-88; Jerry F. Hough, Democratization and Revolution in the USSR, 1985-1991 (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1997), ch. 3.
197. The notion of leadership as a process of "stretching constraints" is taken from Warren Ilchman and Norman University Presshoff, The Political Economy of Change (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1969).
198. George W. Breslauer and Philip Tetlock, eds., Learning in U.S. and Soviet Foreign Policy (Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 1991), passim; Richard Herrmann, "Conclusions: The End of the Cold War-What Have We Learned?" in Lebow and Risse-Kappen, International Relations Theory, pp. 259-84.
199. Louis Hartz, The Liberal Tradition in America (New York: Harcourt, Brace, 1955); Richard Herrmann, Perceptions and Behavior in Soviet Foreign Policy (Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1985).
200. On the distinction between innovative and visionary leadership, Howard Gardner, Leading Minds: An Anatomy of Leadership (New York: Basic Books, 1995), pp. 10-11.
201. Some of these incidents are discussed in Garthoff, The Great Transition, pp. 149-51.
202. Garthoff, The Great Transition pp. 131-36. Georgi Arbatov, The System (New York: Random House, 1992), pp. 276-77.
203. Jack Snyder, Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1991), pp. 246-50.
204. Moskovskaya pravda, 22 February 1985; Leningradskaya pravda, 15 February 1985.
205. Hough, Revolution and Democratization; Anders Aslund, Gorbachev's Struggle for Economic Reform, 2nd ed. (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1991).
206. Schultz, Turmoil and Triumph, chs. 27, 29, 30, and 34; Garthoff, The Great Transition, chs. 5 and 6; Robert M. Gates, From the Shadows (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1996), chs. 18, 19, and 21.
207. Matthew A. Evangelista, "Cooperation Theory and Disarmament Negotiations in the 1950s," World Politics, 41 (July 1990), pp. 502-28.
208. Lebow interview with Mikhail Gorbachev, Moscow, May 1989.
209. See George W. Breslauer, "How Do You Sell a Concessionary Foreign Policy?" Post-Soviet Affairs, 10 (July-September 1994), pp. 277-90.
210. Michael R. Beschloss and Strobe Talbott, At the Highest Levels (Boston: Little, Brown, 1993), pp. 11, 29-30, 452-54. John Miller, Mikhail Gorbachev and the End of Soviet Power (New York: St. Martin, 1993), pp. 54-55. Christian Schmidt-Häuer, Gorbachev (Topsfield, MA: Salem House, 1986), pp. 115-22.
211. Brown, The Gorbachev Factor
212. Arbatov, The System, p. 294.
213. See Garthoff, The Great Transition, chs. 5-10.
214. H. M. Schroder, M. J. Driver, and S. Streufert, Human Information Processing (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1967); and S. Streufer and S. C. Streufert, Behavior in the Complex Environment (New York: Wiley, 1978).
215. Dan Oberdorfer, The Turn: From the Cold War to a New Era: The United States and the Soviet Union, 1983-1990 (New York: Poseidon Press, 1991), p. 299; see also Beschloss and Talbott, At the Highest Levels, p. 132.
216. The argument is also made by Fred I. Greenstein, "Ronald Reagan, Mikhail Gorbachev, and the End of the Cold War: What Difference Did They Make?" in Wohlforth, Witnesses to the End of the Cold War, p. 216.
217. Brown, The Gorbachev Factor, pp. 230-31.
218. George W. Breslauer, "Counterfactual Reasoning in Western Studies of Soviet Politics and Foreign Relations," in Tetlock and Belkin, Counterfactual Thought Experiments, pp. 69-94.
219. Robert Fogel, Railroads and American Economic Growth: Essays in Econometric History (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1964); James Fearon, "Counterfactuals and Hypothesis Testing in Political Science," World Politics 43 (April 1991), pp. 474-84.
220. Donald (now Dierdre) N. McCloskey, "History Differential Equations and the Problem of Narration," History and Theory 36, no. 3 (1991), pp. 37-62.
221. Amos Tversky and Craig Fox, "Weighting Risk and Uncertainty," Psychological Review 102, no. 2 (1995), pp. 269-83.
222. Philip E. Tetlock, "Theory-Driven Reasoning about Possible Pasts and Probable Futures: Are We Prisoners of Our Preconceptions?" American Journal of Political Science 43 (April 1999), pp. 335-66.
223. Richard Ned Lebow, The Tragic Vision of Politics: Ethics, Interests and Orders (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003), chs. 3 and 4 on Thucydides' narrative.
224. Herbert A. Simon, The Sciences of the Artificial (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1996).
225. David K. Lewis, Counterfactuals, (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1973).
226. Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1976).
227. Scott Sagan and Kenneth Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate (New York: Norton, 1995).
228. John A. Vasquez, "The Realist Paradigm and Degenerative versus Progressive Research Programs: An Appraisal of Neotraditional Research on Waltz's Balancing Proposition," American Political Science Review 91 (December 1997), pp. 899-912.
229. Mokyr, "King Kong and Cold Fusion."
230. Isaiah Berlin, "The Hedgehog and the Fox," in The Proper Study of Mankind, ed. Isaiah Berlin (New York: Farrar Straus and Giroux, 1997), pp. 436-98.
231. Philip E. Tetlock, "Close-Call Counterfactuals and Belief System Defenses: I Was Not Almost Wrong but I Was Almost Right," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 75, no. 2 (1998), pp. 230-42.
232. Vasquez, "The Realist Paradigm."
233. Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, "Extensional versus Intuitive Reason: The Conjunction Fallacy as Probability Judgment," Psychological Review, 90, no. 4 (1983), pp. 293-315.
234. Tversky and Fox, "Weighting Risk and Uncertainty."
235. Philip E. Tetlock and Geoffrey Parker, "Counterfactual Thought Experiments: Why We Can't Live without Them and How We Must Learn to Live with Them, " in Tetlock, Lebow and Parker, Unmaking the West, pp. 14-46.
236. Tversky and Fox, "Weighting Risk and Uncertainty."
237. Scott Hawkins and Reid Hastie, "Hindsight: Biased Judgment of Past Events after the Outcomes Are Known," Psychological Bulletin 107, no. 21 (1990), pp. 311-27.
238. William H. McNeill, Pursuit of Power: Technology Armed Force and Society since A.D. 1000, (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1982).
239. Stephen Jay Gould, Dinosaur in a Haystack: Reflections in Natural History (New York: Harmony Books, 1995).
240. Tetlock and Parker, "Counterfactual Thought Experiments."
241. E. H. Carr, What Is History? (London: Penguin Books, 1961).
242. Tversky and Fox, "Weighting Risk and Uncertainty."
243. Hawkins and Hastie, "Hindsight: Biased Judgment of Past Events after the Outcomes Are Known."
244. Tetlock and Belkin, Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics.
245. Koehler, "Explanation Imagination and Confidence in Judgment" Tversky and Kahneman, "Extensional versus Intuitive Reason."
246. Tversky and Kahneman, "Extensional versus Intuitive Reason."
247. Koehler, "Explanation Imagination and Confidence in Judgment."
248. This point has subsequently been reiterated by Philip E. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How can We Know? (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2005).
249. L. Ross, M. R. Lepper, F. Strack, and J. Steinmetz, "Social Explanation and Social Expectation: Effects of Real and Hypothetical Explanations on Subjective Likelihood," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 35 (1977), pp. 817-29.
250. Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, "Extensional versus Intuitive Reason: The Conjunction Fallacy as Probability Judgment," Psychological Review, 90, no. 2 (1983), pp. 292-315.
251. Kahneman "Varieties of Counterfactual Thinking."
252. Tversky and Kahneman, "Extensional versus Intuitive Reason; Koehler, "Explanation, Imagination, and Confidence in Judgment," on the effects of vividness.
253. Holger Afflerbach and David Stevenson, eds., An Improbable War? The Outbreak of World War I and European Political Culture Before 1914 (New York: Berghahn, 2007), represents the first serious effort by historians to challenge the inevitability thesis.
254. W.K.C. Guthrie, The Sophists (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1971); Kerferd, The Sophistic Movement (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981).
255. Richard Ned Lebow, Tragic Vision of Politics: Ethics, Interests and Orders (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004), ch. 4.
256. Tversky and Kahneman, "Judgment under Uncertainty," p. 226, and "Extensional versus Intuitive Reason; Koehler, "Explanation, Imagination, and Confidence in Judgment."
257. Richard Ned Lebow, "Unmaking the Holocaust," ongoing and unpublished study.
258. Leon Festinger, A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance (Evanston, Ill.: Row, Peterson, 1957).
259. Shelly Taylor and S. Thompson, "Snaking the Elusive 'Vividness' Effect," Psychological Review, 89 (1982), pp. 155-81.
260. Jolita Kisielius and Brian Sternthal, "Detecting and Explaining Vividness Effects in Attitudinal Judgments." European Journal of Social Psychology, 32 (2002), pp. 577-88.
261. Ann L. McGill and Punan Anand, "The Effect of Vivid Attributes on the Evaluation of Alternatives: The Role of Differential Attention and Cognitive Elaboration," Journal of Consumer Research, 16 (September 1989), pp. 188-96.
262. Thomas Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1970), p. 42. Philip Roth, The Plot Against America (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 2004), p. 114.
263. Sinclair Lewis, It Can't Happen Here (Garden City: Doubleday Doran, 1935); Philip Roth, The Plot Against America (Boston: Houghton-Mifflin, 2004).
264. The Iliad of Homer, trans. Richard Lattimore (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1951), Book Two, lines 135-210; pp. 80-81.
265. Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterfactual_history;Amazon.com, 25 May 2007; Google, 25 May 2007.
266. Michael Chabon, The Yiddish Policeman's Union (Ontario: Harper-Collins, 2007).
267. D. James Kennedy's What If Jesus Had Never Been Born (Nashville: Thomas Nelson, 1997).
268. Erskine Childers, Riddle of the Sands: A Record of Secret Service (Boston: Charles E. Lauriat Company, 1927 [1902]); H. G. Wells, The War in the Air (New York: Macmillan, 1922).
269. Edward Bellamy, Looking Backward, 2000-1887 (Boston: Houghton, Mifflin, 1889); Theodore Herzl, Old-New Land [Altneuland], trans. Lotta Levinson (New York: Bloch, 1960 [1902]); Roth, The Counterlife, p. 151.
270. The articles appeared in the Jewish Daily Bulletin in April-May 1933. Richard R. Lingemann, Sinclair Lewis: Rebel from Main Street (New York: Random House, 2002), 394.
271. Dorothy Parker, I Saw Hitler! (New York: Farrar and Rinehart, 1932), p. 35.
272. Lingemann, Sinclair Lewis, pp. 399-400.
273. Huey P. Long, Every Man a King: An Autobiography of Huey P. Long (New Orleans: National Book Co., 1933).
274. Lingemann, Sinclair Lewis, p. 400.
275. "Utopia, or Uncle Tom's Cabin," Review of It Can't Happen Here, The Nation, 30 October 1935, p. 516; William Plomer, "Fiction," Spectator, 8 November 1935, p. 790.
276. R. L. Duffus, "Free or Fascist," Survey Graphic 29, no. 12 (December 1935), pp. 620-22.
277. Peter Quennell, "New Novels," The New Statesmen and Nation, 10, no. 245, 2 November 1935, pp. 644-45.
278. R. P. Blackmur, "Utopia, or Uncle Tom's Cabin," The Nation, 141, no. 3669, 30 October 1935, p. 516.
279. Common Sense, 9, no. 12 (December 1935), pp. 24-25. Geoffrey Stone, "An Ironical Tract," The Commonweal, 23, no. 4, 22 November 1935, pp. 107-8.
280. Stolberg, "Sinclair Lewis Faces Fascism in the U.S."
281. Vincent, "Social Fiction Notes."
282. Stone, "An Ironical Tract."
283. J. Donald Adams, "American under the Iron Heel, New York Times Book Review, 20 October 1935, p. 1; Duffus, "Free or Fascist."
284. On Tulsa, see http://www.tulsareparations.org/FinalReport.htm, The Final Report of the Oklahoma Commission to Study the Tulsa Race Riot of 1921, compiled by Danny Goble.
285. Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America, trans. and ed. Harvey C. Mansfield and Debra Winthrop (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2000), vol. II.1.2, pp. 409-10; I, 2.2, p. 169; II.1.2, pp. 409-10.
286. Duffus, "Free or Fascist."
287. Duffus, "Free or Fascist" Stone, "An Ironical Tract" Melvin J. Vincent, "Social Fiction Notes," Sociology and Social Research, 20 (1956), p. 297.
288. Justus D. Doenecke, Storm on the Horizon: The Challenge to American Intervention, 1939-1941 (Lanham, Md.: Rowman and Littlefield, 2000); Max Wallace, The American Axis: Henry Ford, Charles Lindbergh and the Rise of the Third Reich (New York: St. Martin's 2003).
289. Philip Roth, "The Story behind The Plot Against America," New York Times, Book Review Section, 19 September 2004, pp. 10-12.
290. "The Plot Again," Jeffrey Brown talks to Philip Roth, Online New Hour, 27 October 2004, http://pbs.org/newshour/bb/entertainment/july-dec04/philip-roth_10-27.html
291. Phil A. Roth, "Goodbye, Columbus," in Goodbye, Columbus and Five Short Stories (New York: Modern Library, 1966 [1959]), p. 58.
292. Philip A. Roth, Operation Shylock (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1993), p. 334.
293. Parrish, "Introduction: Roth at Mid-Career,"
294. Steinberg, "Roth and the Holocaust."
295. Roth, "The Story behind The Plot Against America."
296. Roth, A The Plot Against America, pp. 220.
297. Roth, A The Plot Against America, p. 301.
298. Charles Segal, Tragedy and Civilization: An Interpretation of Sophocles (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1981), p. 48.
299. See the essays in Peter Suedfeld, ed., Light from the Ashes: Social Science Careers of Young Holocaust Refugees and Survivors (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2001).
300. W. G. Sebald, Austerlitz (Munch: Hanser, 2001); Günther Grass, Im Krebs-gang: eine Novelle (Göttingen: Steidl, 2002).
301. Roth, "The Story behind The Plot Against America."
302. Roth, The Plot Against America, p. 362.
303. Roth, "The Story behind The Plot Against America."
304. Michael Gorra, "A Kitchen Table in Newark," The Times, 8 October 2004.
305. David Gates, "It Can't Happen Here," Newsweek 144, issue 12, 20 September 2004, p. 56.
306. Michiko Kakutani, "A Pro-Nazi President, a Family Feeling the Effects," New York Times, 21 September 2004.
307. J. M. Coetzee, "What Philip Knew," New York Review of Books, 18 November 2004.
308. Roth, A The Plot Against America, p. 256.
309. Roy Foster, "No Place for a Jew," Financial Times Weekend Magazine, Book Reviews, p. 30.
310. Paul Berman, "The Plot Against America: What If It Happened Here?" New York Times, Book Review Section, 3 October 2004.
311. Max Watman, "Worse Yet, Real Life," New Criterion, November 2004, pp. 54-60. See also, Schaub, "The Plot Against America."
312. Timothy Parrish, "The Plot Against America," Philip Roth Studies, 1, no. 1 (Spring 2005), pp. 93-101, 111.
313. Clive James, "Fatherland," Atlantic Monthly, November 2004, pp. 143-49.
314. Ross Douthat, "It Didn't Happen Here," Policy Review (February-March 2005), no. 125, pp. 75-78.
315. Adam Mars-Jones, "The Plot Against America," Observer, 17 October 2004.
316. Hana Wirth-Nesher, "Roth's Autobiographical Writings" Michael Steinberg, "Roth and the Holocaust," in Parrish, The Cambridge Companion to Philip Roth, pp. 158-72.
317. Michael Winock, Nationalisme, antisemitisme, fascism en France (Paris: Seuil, 1990); Herman Lebovics, True France: The Wars over Cultural Identity, 1930-1945 (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1992).
318. Max Weber, "Objective Possibility and Adequate Causation in Historical Explanation," in The Methodology of the Social Sciences (Glencoe, Ill.: Free Press, 1949 [1905]), pp. 164-88.
319. Ken Tucker interviews Philip Roth, "Philip Roth Makes History," Entertainment Weekly, 1 October 2004, p. 42.
320. Roth, "The Story behind The Plot Against America."
321. Holger Herwig, "Hitler Wins in the East but Germany Still Loses World War II," in Philip E. Tetlock, Richard Ned Lebow, and Geoffrey Parker, Unmaking the West: "What-If" Scenarios that Rewrite World History, pp. 323-62.
322. Susan Berman, Introduction to Alessandro Manzoni, On the Historical Novel, trans., and ed. Sandra Berman (Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press, 1984).
323. Wirth-Nesher, "Roth's Autobiographical Writings."
324. G.E.M. Ansombe, "On Brute Facts," Analysis, 18 (1958), pp. 69-72. John R. Searle, The Construction of Social Reality (New York: Free Press, 1995).
325. Hayden V. White, The Content of the Form: Narrative Discourse and Historical Representation (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1987).
326. Richard Ned Lebow, The Tragic Vision of Politics: Ethics, Orders and Interests (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004), ch. 4.
327. Sigmund Freud, "Delusions and Dreams in Jensen's Gradiva," in The Standard Edition of the Complete Psychological Works of Sigmund Freud (London: Hogarth Press, 1907), vol. IX, p. 8.
328. Montesquieu, Charles de Secondat, Considérations sur les causes de la grandeur des Romains et de leur décadence, trans. David Lowenthal (New York: Free Press, 1965), ch. 18.
329. Richard Ned Lebow, "Beyond Parsimony: Rethinking Theories of Coercive Bargaining," European Journal of International Relations 4, no. 1 (1998), pp. 31-66.
330. Richard Ned Lebow, A Cultural Theory of International Relations (Cam-bridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008).
331. Richard Ned Lebow, Between Peace and War: The Nature of International Crisis (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1981).
332. Hein E. Goemans, War and Punishment: The Causes of War Termination and the First World War (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2000), for the strongest argument about why a negotiated peace was unlikely.
333. Interviews with Indian and South Korean officials, Washington, D.C., Columbus, Ohio, Beijing, China, January 1999, March 2001, September 2007.
334. Gabriel A. Almond and Stephen J. Genco, "Clouds, Clocks and the Study of Politics," World Politics, 29, no. 4. (1977), pp. 489-522, for an early but still powerful argument to this effect.
335. Milja Kurki, Causation in International Relations: Reclaiming Causal Analysis (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008).
336. Richard Ned Lebow, Between Peace and War: The Nature of International Crisis (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1981), chs. 7 and 9 for these conditions and relevant cases.
337. Richard Ned Lebow, A Cultural Theory of International Relations (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008), ch. 7.
338. Matthew L. Wald and Kenneth Chang, "Minneapolis Bridge Had Passed Inspection," New York Times, 22 May 2008.
339. Holger H. Herwig, The First World War: Germany and Austria-Hungary 1914-1918 (London: Arnold, 1997), pp. 312-17.
340. Michael R. Beschloss and Strobe Talbot, At the Highest Levels: The Inside Story of the End of the Cold War (Boston: Little, Brown, 1993), pp. 13-17, 19-21, 45-46.
341. The term is from G. L. Wells, B. R. Taylor, and J. W. Turtle, "The Undoing of Scenarios," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 53 (1987), pp. 421-30.
342. H.L.A. Hart and A. M. Honoré, Causation in Law, 2nd ed. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1985), on unfolding chains.
343. Bernstein, Lebow, Stein and Weber, "Social Science as Case-Based Diagnostics."
344. Arnold Davidson, "Carlo Ginzburg and the Renewal of Historiography," in James Chandler, Arnold I. Davidson, and Harry Harootunian, eds. Questions of Evidence: Proof, Practice and Persuasion across the Disciplines (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1994), pp. 304-20.
345. Chaim Perelman and L. Olbrechts-Tyteca, The New Rhetoric: A Treatise on Argumentation, tr. John Wilkinson and Purcell Weaver (Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame Press, 1968).
346. John Zinman, Reliable Knowledge: An Exploration for the Grounds of Belief in Science (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1978).
347. Paul Ricoeur, Time and Narrative, trans. and ed. Kathleen McLaughlin and David Pellauer, 3 vols. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1984-88), vol. I, pp. 352-54.
348. Barbara Herrnstein Smith, On the Margins of Discourse: The Relations of Literature to Language (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1978), pp. x-xi, 10-11.
349. G.E.M. Ansombe, "On Brute Facts," Analysis, 18 (1958), pp. 69-73; John R. Searle, The Construction of Social Reality (New York: Free Press, 1995).
350. John Locke, An Essay concerning Human Understanding, ed. A. S. PringlePattison (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1924), Book II; Hume, An Inquiry Concerning Human Understanding, part II, 2-3.
351. Susan E. Fiske and Shelley Taylor, Social Cognition (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1991), for a good overview.
352. John R. Searle, Expression and Meaning: Studies in the Theory of Speech Acts (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979), p. 65.
353. Philip E. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2005).
354. Richard Ned Lebow, "British Historians and Irish History," Eire-Ireland 8 (December 1973), 3-38.
355. Thierry Meyssan, The Big Lie (London: Carnot, 2002).
356. Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein, "Reagan and the Russians," Atlantic Monthly 273 (February 1994), pp. 35-37; Richard K. Herrmann, "Learning from the Cold War," in Richard K. Herrmann and Richard Ned Lebow, eds., Ending the Cold War (New York: Palgrave-Macmillan, 2004), pp. 219-38.
357. JFK (1991), directed by Oliver Stone. DeLillo, Libra.
358. Gerd Krumeich, "Die Dolchstoss-Legende," in Etienne Francois and Hagen Schulze, eds., Deutsche Erinnerungsorte (Munich: Beck, 2000), pp. 585-99; Bernd Seiler, "'Dolchstoss' und 'Dolchstosslegende,'" Zeitschrift für Deutsche Sprache 22 (1966), pp. 1-20.
359. Bertrand Russell, "On Denoting," in Farhang Zabeeh, E. D. Klemke, and Arthur Jacobsen, eds., Readings in Semantics (Urbana: University of Illinois Press, 1974 [1905]), pp. 143-58.
360. Gottlob Frege, "Über Begriff und Gegenstand," Vierteljahrsschrift für Wissenschaftliche Philosophie 16 (1892), pp. 192-205, reprinted in Peter Geach and Max Black, eds., Translations from the Philosophical Writings of Gottlob Frege, 3rd ed. (Oxford: Blackwell, 1980), pp. 42-55.
361. Donald (Dierdre) McCloskey, The Rhetoric of Economics (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1985).
362. Lubomír Doležel, Heterocosmica: Fiction and Possible Worlds (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1998), pp. x, 33-37.
363. James Frey, A Thousand Little Pieces (New York: Anchor, 2005).
364. Rigoberta Menchu, An Autobiography (New York: Verso, 1998).
365. Thomas Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1970), p. 42.