A study on the asymmetric rapid intensification of Hurricane Earl (2010) using the HWRF system

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Volumn 72, Issue 2, 2015, Pages 531-550

  Chen, Hua ^a,b   Gopalakrishnan, Sundararaman G ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI   (United States)

^b ATLANTIC OCEANOGRAPHIC AND METEOROLOGICAL LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BUDGET CONTROL; ELECTRIC CIRCUIT BREAKERS; HURRICANES; STORMS; SUBSIDENCE;

COOPERATIVE INTERACTIONS; FORECAST VERIFICATIONS; HORIZONTAL ADVECTION; RAPID INTENSIFICATION; SURFACE PRESSURES; TEMPERATURE BUDGET; VERTICAL ALIGNMENT; WEATHER RESEARCH;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

ASYMMETRY; HURRICANE EVENT; STORM; WARMING; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 84923103506     PISSN: 00224928     EISSN: 15200469     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-14-0097.1     Document Type: Article

References (70)

1. Black, P. G., 1983: Ocean temperature changes induced by tropical cyclones. Ph.D. dissertation, The Pennsylvania State University, 278 pp. [Available from The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802.]
2. Byers, H. R., 1944: General Meteorology. McGraw-Hill, 645 pp.
3. Cangialosi, J. P., 2010: Tropical cyclone report: Hurricane Earl, 25 August-4 September 2010. NOAA/NHC Tech. Rep. AL072010, 29 pp. [Available online at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCRAL072010_Earl.pdf.]
4. Cangialosi, J. P., and J. L. Franklin, 2011: 2010 National Hurricane Center forecast verification report. NOAA/NHC Tech. Rep. 77 pp. [Available online at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verification_2010.pdf.]
5. Cangialosi, J. P., and J. L. Franklin, 2012: 2011 Atlantic and eastern North Pacific forecast verification. Proc. 66th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conf., Charleston, SC, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, 23 pp. [Available online at http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc12/Presentations/01b-Session/03-IHC_2012_Verification_(2012)_v2.pdf.]
6. Chen, H., 2012: On the rapid intensification of Hurricane Wilma (2005). Ph.D. dissertation, University of Maryland, 150 pp. [Available from Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD20740.]
7. Chen, H., and D.-L. Zhang, 2013: On the rapid intensification of Hurricane Wilma (2005). Part II: Convective bursts and the upper-level warm core. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 146-162, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-12-062.1.
8. Chen, H., and D.-L. Zhang, J. Carton, and R. Atlas, 2011: On the rapid intensification of Hurricane Wilma (2005). Part I: Model prediction and structural changes. Wea. Forecasting, 26, 885-901, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-11-00001.1.
9. Chen, Q., and J. Fang, 2012: Effects of vertical wind shear on intensity and structure of tropical cyclone. J. Trop. Meteor., 18, 172-186.
10. Corbosiero, K. L., and J. Molinari, 2002: The effects of vertical wind shear on the distribution of convection in tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 2110-2123, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<2110:TEOVWS>2.0.CO;2.
11. Corbosiero, K. L., and J. Molinari, 2003: The relationship between stormmotion, vertical wind shear, and convective asymmetries in tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 366-376, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<0366:TRBSMV>2.0.CO;2.
12. DeMaria, M., and J. Kaplan, 1994: Sea surface temperature and the maximum intensity of Atlantic tropical cyclones. J. Climate, 7, 1324-1334, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<1324:SSTATM>2.0.CO;2.
13. Eastin, M. D., W. M. Gray, and P. G. Black, 2005a: Buoyancy of convective vertical motions in the inner core of intense hurricanes. Part I: General statistics. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 188-208, doi:10.1175/MWR-2848.1.
14. Eastin, M. D., W. M. Gray, and P. G. Black, 2005b: Buoyancy of convective vertical motions in the inner core of intense hurricanes. Part II: Case studies. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 209-227, doi:10.1175/MWR-2849.1.
15. Emanuel, K., 2003: A century of scientific progress: An evaluation. Hurricane! Coping with Disaster: Progress and Challenges since Galveston 1900, R. Simpson, R. Anthes, and M. Garstang, Eds., Amer. Geophys. Union, 177-204, doi:10.1029/SP055p0177.
16. Ferrier, B. S., 1994: A double-moment multiple-phase four-class bulk ice scheme. Part I:Description. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 249-280, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1994)051<0249:ADMMPF>2.0.CO;2.
17. Foley, G., 1998: A marked upper tropospheric temperature anomaly observed by an aircraft near a thunderstorm over inland western Australia. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 47, 321-326.
18. Frank, W. M., and E. A. Ritchie, 2001: Effects of vertical wind shear on the intensity and structure of numerically simulated hurricanes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2249-2269, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<2249:EOVWSO>2.0.CO;2.
19. Gopalakrishnan, S. G., F. Marks, X. Zhang, J.-W. Bao, K.-S. Yeh, and R. Atlas, 2011: The experimental HWRF system:Astudy on the influence of horizontal resolution on the structure and intensity changes in tropical cyclones using an idealized framework. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 1762-1784, doi:10.1175/2010MWR3535.1.
20. Gopalakrishnan, S. G., and Coauthors, 2012: Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model: 2012 scientific documentation. HWRF Development Testbed Center Tech. Rep. 96 pp. [Available online at: http://www.dtcenter.org/HurrWRF/users/docs/scientific_documents/HWRFScientificDocumentation_v3.4a. pdf.]
21. Gopalakrishnan, S. G., F. Marks, J.A. Zhang, X. Zhang, J.-W. Bao, and V. Tallapragada, 2013: A study of the impacts of vertical diffusion on the structure and intensity of the tropical cyclones using the high-resolution HWRF system. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 524-541, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-11-0340.1.
22. Gray, W. M., 1968: Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms. Mon. Wea. Rev., 96, 669-700, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1968)096<0669:GVOTOO>2.0.CO;2.
23. Guimond, S. R., G. M. Heymsfield, and F. J. Turk, 2010: Multiscale observations of Hurricane Dennis (2005): The effects of hot towers on rapid intensification. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 633-654, doi:10.1175/2009JAS3119.1.
24. Hack, J. J., and W. H. Schubert, 1986: Nonlinear response of atmospheric vortices to heating by organized cumulus convection. J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 1559-1573, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1986)043<1559:NROAVT>2.0.CO;2.
25. Harnos, D. S., and S. W. Nesbitt, 2011: Convective structure in rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones as depicted by passive microwave measurements. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L07805, doi:10.1029/2011GL047010.
26. Hendricks, E. A., M. T. Montgomery, and C. A. Davis, 2004: The role of "vortical" hot towers in the formation of Tropical Cyclone Diana (1984). J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 1209-1232, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<1209:TROVHT>2.0.CO;2.
27. Heymsfield, G. M., J. B. Halverson, J. Simpson, L. Tian, and T. P. Bui, 2001: ER-2 Doppler radar investigations of the eyewall of Hurricane Bonnie during the Convection and Moisture Experiment-3. J. Appl. Meteor., 40, 1310-1330, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(2001)040<1310:EDRIOT>2.0.CO;2.
28. Hong, S.-Y., and H.-L. Pan, 1996: Nonlocal boundary layer vertical diffusion in a Medium-Range Forecast Model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 2322-2339, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124<2322:NBLVDI>2.0.CO;2.
29. Jiang, H., 2012: The relationship between tropical cyclone intensity change and the strength of inner-core convection. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 1164-1176, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-11-00134.1.
30. Jones, S. C., 1995: The evolution of vortices in vertical shear. I:Initially barotropic vortices. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 121, 821-851, doi:10.1002/qj.49712152406.
31. Kaplan, J., and M. DeMaria, 2003: Large-scale characteristics of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 1093-1108, doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018<1093:LCORIT>2.0.CO;2.
32. Kaplan, J., and M. DeMaria, and J. A. Knaff, 2010: A revised tropical cyclone rapid intensification index for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 220-241, doi:10.1175/2009WAF2222280.1.
33. Kieper, M., and H. Jiang, 2012: Predicting tropical cyclone rapid intensification using the 37GHz ring pattern identified from passive microwave measurements. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L13804, doi:10.1029/2012GL052115.
34. Kossin, J., and W. H. Schubert, 2001: Mesovortices, polygonal flow patterns, and rapid pressure falls in hurricane-like vortices. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 2196-2209, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(2001)058<2196:MPFPAR>2.0.CO;2.
35. Liu, Q., N. Surgi, S. Lord, W.-S. Wu, D. Parrish, S. Gopalakrishnan, J. Waldrop, and J. Gamache, 2006: Hurricane initialization in HWRF model. 27th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Monterey, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 8A.2. [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/27Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_108496.htm.]
36. Liu, Y., D.-L. Zhang, and M. K. Yau, 1999: A multiscale numerical study of Hurricane Andrew (1992). Part II: Kinematics and inner-core structures. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 2597-2616, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<2597:AMNSOH>2.0.CO;2.
37. Marks, F. D., 1985: Evolution of the structure of precipitation in Hurricane Allen (1980). Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 909-930, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113<0909:EOTSOP>2.0.CO;2.
38. Merrill, R. T., 1988: Environmental influences on hurricane intensification. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 1678-1687, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045<1678:EIOHI>2.0.CO;2.
39. Molinari, J., and D. Vollaro, 2010: Rapid intensification of a sheared tropical storm. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 3869-3885, doi:10.1175/2010MWR3378.1.
40. Molinari, J., P. Dodge, D. Vollaro, K. L. Corbosiero, and F. Marks, 2006: Mesoscale aspects of the downshear reformation of a tropical cyclone. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 341-354, doi:10.1175/JAS3591.1.
41. Montgomery, M. T., M. E. Nicholls, T. A. Cram, and A. B. Saunders, 2006: A vortical hot tower route to tropical cyclogenesis. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 355-386, doi:10.1175/JAS3604.1.
42. Montgomery, M. T., J. A. Zhang, and R. K. Smith, 2014: An analysis of the observed low-level structure of rapidly intensifying and mature hurricane Earl (2010). Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140, 2132-2146, doi:10.1002/qj.2283.
43. Nguyen, M. C., M. J. Reeder, N. E. Davidson, R. K. Smith, and M. T. Montgomery, 2011: Inner-core vacillation cycles during the intensification of Hurricane Katrina. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 829-844, doi:10.1002/qj.823.
44. Nolan, D. S., Y. Moon, and D. P. Stern, 2007: Tropical cyclone intensification from asymmetric convection: Energetics and efficiency. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 3377-3405, doi:10.1175/JAS3988.1.
45. Reasor, P., and M. D. Eastin, 2012: Rapidly intensifying Hurricane Guillermo (1997). Part II: Resilience in shear. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 425-444, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-11-00080.1.
46. Reasor, P., M. T. Montgomery, and L. D. Grasso, 2004: A new look at the problem of tropical cyclones in vertical shear flow:Vortex resiliency. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 3-22, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<0003:ANLATP>2.0.CO;2.
47. Reasor, P., M. D. Eastin, and J. F. Gamache, 2009: Rapidly intensifying Hurricane Guillermo (1997). Part I: Low-wavenumber structure and evolution. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 603-631, doi:10.1175/2008MWR2487.1.
48. Riemer, M., M. T. Montgomery, and M. E. Nicholls, 2010: A new paradigm for intensity modification of tropical cyclones: Thermodynamic impact of vertical wind shear on the inflow layer. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 3163-3188, doi:10.5194/acp-10-3163-2010.
49. Rodgers, E. B., W. S. Olson, V. M. Karyampudi, and H. F. Pierce, 1998: Satellite-derived latent heating distribution and environmental influences in Hurricane Opal (1995). Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 1229-1247, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<1229:SDLHDA>2.0.CO;2.
50. Rogers, R. F., S. Lorsolo, P. Reasor, J. Gamache, and F. Marks, 2012: Multiscale analysis of tropical cyclone kinematic structure from airborne Doppler radar composites. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 77-99, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-10-05075.1.
51. Rogers, R. F., P. Reasor, and S. Lorsolo, 2013: Airborne Doppler observations of the inner-core structural differences between intensifying and steady-state tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 2970-2991, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00357.1.
52. Rogers, R. F., P. Reasor, and J. A. Zhang, 2015: Multiscale structure and evolution of Hurricane Earl (2010) during rapid intensification. Mon. Wea. Rev., doi:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00175.1, in press.
53. Schubert, W. H., and J. J. Hack, 1982: Inertial stability and tropical cyclone development. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 1687-1697, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1982)039<1687:ISATCD>2.0.CO;2.
54. Shay, L. K., G. J. Goni, and P. G. Black, 2000: Effects of a warm oceanic feature on Hurricane Opal. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 1366-1383, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<1366:EOAWOF>2.0.CO;2.
55. Sitkowski, M., and G. M. Barnes, 2009: Low-level thermodynamic, kinematic, and reflectivity fields of Hurricane Guillermo (1997) during rapid intensification. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 645-663, doi:10.1175/2008MWR2531.1.
56. Smith, R. K., 1980: Tropical cyclone eye dynamics. J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 1227-1232, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1980)037<1227:TCED>2.0.CO;2.
57. Steranka, J., E. B. Rodgers, and R. C. Gentry, 1986: The relationship between satellite-measured convective bursts and tropical cyclone intensification. Mon. Wea. Rev., 114, 1539-1546, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1986)114<1539:TRBSMC>2.0.CO;2.
58. Stern, D. P., and F. Zhang, 2013a: How does the eye warm? Part I:A potential temperature budget analysis of an idealized tropical cyclone. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 73-90, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-11-0329.1.
59. Stern, D. P., and F. Zhang, 2013b: How does the eye warm? Part II: Sensitivity to vertical wind shear and a trajectory analysis. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 1849-1873, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-12-0258.1.
60. Tallapragada, V., C. Kieu, Y. Kwon, S. Trahan, Q. Liu, Z. Zhang, and I.-H. Kwon, 2014: Evaluation of storm structure from the operational HWRF during 2012 implementation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 4308-4325, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00010.1.
61. Tang, B., and K. Emanuel, 2010: Midlevel ventilation's constraint on tropical cyclone intensity. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 1817-1830, doi:10.1175/2010JAS3318.1.
62. Van Sang, N., R. K. Smith, and M. T. Montgomery, 2008: Tropical-cyclone intensification and predictability in three dimensions. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 563-582, doi:10.1002/qj.235.
63. Velden, C. S., and W. L. Smith, 1983: Monitoring tropical cyclone evolution with NOAA satellite microwave observations. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 22, 714-724, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1983)022<0714:MTCEWN>2.0.CO;2.
64. Vigh, J. L., and W. H. Schubert, 2009: Rapid development of the tropical cyclone warm core. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 3335-3350, doi:10.1175/2009JAS3092.1.
65. Willoughby, H. E., 1998: Tropical cyclone eye thermodynamics. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 3053-3067, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<3053:TCET>2.0.CO;2.
66. Willoughby, H. E., J. A. Clos, and M. G. Shoreibah, 1982: Concentric eye walls, secondarywindmaxima, and the evolution of the hurricane vortex. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 395-411, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1982)039<0395:CEWSWM>2.0.CO;2.
67. Yablonsky, R. M., and I. Ginis, 2008: Improving the ocean initialization of coupled hurricane-ocean models using featurebased data assimilation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 2592-2607, doi:10.1175/2007MWR2166.1.
68. Zhang, D.-L., and H. Chen, 2012: Importance of the upperlevel warm core in the rapid intensification of a tropical cyclone. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L02806, doi:10.1029/2011GL050578.
69. Zhang, F., and D. Tao, 2013: Effects of vertical wind shear on the predictability of tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 975-983, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-12-0133.1.
70. Zhang, J. A., R. Rogers, P. Reasor, E. W. Uhlhorn, and F. D. Marks, 2013: Asymmetric hurricane boundary layer structure from dropsonde composites in relation to the environmental vertical wind shear. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 3968-3984, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00335.1.