Out-of-sample validation for structured expert judgment of Asian carp establishment in Lake Erie

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management

Volumn 10, Issue 4, 2014, Pages 522-528

  Cooke, Roger M ^a,b,c   Wittmann, Marion E ^d   Lodge, David M ^d   Rothlisberger, John D ^e   Rutherford, Edward S ^f   Zhang, Hongyan ^f   Mason, Doran M ^g  

^a RESOURCES FOR THE FUTURE   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF STRATHCLYDE   (United Kingdom)

^c DELFT UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (Netherlands)

^d UNIVERSITY OF NOTRE DAME   (United States)

^e US Forest Service   (United States)

^f UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN   (United States)

^g NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

Asian carp; Classical model; Cross validation; Invasive species; Structured expert judgment

Indexed keywords

ANIMAL; CARP; INTRODUCED SPECIES; LAKE; PROCEDURES; RISK ASSESSMENT; STATISTICAL MODEL; STATISTICS AND NUMERICAL DATA; UNCERTAINTY; VALIDATION STUDY;

ANIMALS; CARPS; INTRODUCED SPECIES; LAKES; MODELS, STATISTICAL; RISK ASSESSMENT; UNCERTAINTY;

EID: 84922536049     PISSN: 15513793     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/ieam.1559     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. [ACRCC] Asian Carp Regional Coordinating Committee. 2012. FY 2012 Asian carp control strategy framework. [cited 2013 February]. Available from: http://www.asiancarp.us/documents/2012Framework.pdf
2. Apostolakis G. 1990. The concept of probability in safety assessments of technological systems. Science 250:1359-1364.
3. Aspinall WP. 2010. A route to more tractable expert advice. Nature 463:294-295.
4. Bamber JL, Aspinall WP. 2013. An expert judgment assessment of future sea 1evel rise from the ice sheets. Nature Clim Change Available from: DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1778
5. Burgman M. 2005. Risk and decisions for conservation and environmental management. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ Press. pp 1-100.
6. Clemen RT. 2008. Comment on Cooke's classical method. Reliab Eng Syst Safe 93:760-765.
7. Cooke RM. 1991. Experts in uncertainty. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ Press.
8. Cooke RM. 2008. Response to comments. Special issue on expert judgment. Reliab Eng Syst Safe 93:775-777.
9. Cooke RM. 2012. Pitfalls of ROAt cross validation comment on effects of overconfidence and dependence on aggregated probability judgments. J Model Manage 7:20-22.
10. Cooke RM. 2014. Validating expert judgments with the classical model in experts and consensus in social science-Critical perspectives from economics, sociology, politics, and philosophy. In: Martini C, Boumans M, editors. Ethical economy-Studies in economic ethics and philosophy. Springer.
11. Cooke RM, Goossens LHJ. 2000. Procedures guide for structured expert judgment in accident consequence modelling. Radiat Prot Dosim 90:303-309.
12. Cooke RM, Goossens LHJ. 2008. TU Delft expert judgment data base. Special issue on expert judgment. Reliab Eng Syst Safe 93:657-674.
13. Eggstaff JW, Mazzuchi TA, Sarkani S. 2013. The effect of the number of seed variables on the performance of Cooke's classical model. Reliab Eng Syst Safe 121:72-82.
14. Evans JS, Wilson A, Tuomisto JT, Tainio M, Cooke RM. 2005. What risk assessment can tell us about the mortality impacts of the Kuwaiti oil fires. Epidemiology 16:S137-S138.
15. Flandoli F, Giorgi E, Aspinall WP, Neri A. 2011. Comparison of a new expert elicitation model with the Classical Model, equal weights and single experts, using a cross-validation technique. Reliab Eng Syst Safe 96:1292-1310.
16. Fuller PL, Nico LG, Williams JD. 1999. Nonindigenous fishes introduced into inland waters of the United States. Special publication 27. Bethesda (MD): American Fisheries Society.
17. Garvey J, Ickes B, Zigler S. 2010. Challenges in merging fisheries research and management: The upper Mississippi River experience. Hydrobiologia 160:125-144.
18. Klugel JU. 2011. Uncertainty analysis and expert judgment in seismic hazard analysis. Pure Appl Geophys 168:27-53.
19. Kolar, CS, Chapman DC, Courtenay WR, Housel CM, Williams JD, Jennings DP. 2007. Bigheaded carps: A biological synopsis and environmental risk assessment. American Fisheries Society Special Publication 33, Bethesda, Maryland.
20. Lenton TM, Held H, Kriegler E, Hall JW, Lucht W, Rahmstorf S, Schellnhuber HJ. 2008. Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105:1786-1793.
21. Lin S-W, Cheng C-H. 2008. "Can Cooke's model sift out better experts and produce well-calibrated aggregated probabilities?" Taiwan Proceedings of the 2008 IEEE IEEM, 8-11 Dec. 2008, p 425-429. Available from: DOI 10.1109/IEEM.2008.4737904
22. Lin S-W, Cheng C-H. 2009. The reliability of aggregated probability judgments obtained through Cooke's classical model. J Model Manage 4:149-161.
23. Martin TG, Burgman MA, Fidler FF, Kuhnert PM, Low-Choy S, McBride M, Mengersen K. 2011. Eliciting expert knowledge in conservation science. Conserv Biol 26:29-38.
24. Morgan MG, Pitelka LF, Shevliakova E. 2001. Elicitation of expert judgments of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems. Clim Change 49:279-307.
25. Qing X. 2002. Risk analysis for real estate investment [PhD thesis]. Delft, the Netherlands: Delft Univ of Technology.
26. Roman HA, Walker KD, Walsh TL, Conner L, Richmond HM, Hubbell BJ, et al. 2008. Expert judgment assessment of the mortality impact of changes in ambient fine particulate matter in the US. Environ Sci Technol 42:2268-2274.
27. Rothlisberger JD, Lodge DM, Cooke RM, Finnoff DC. 2010. Future declines of the binational Laurentian Great Lakes fisheries, the importance of environmental and cultural change. Front Ecol Environ 8:239-244.
28. Rothlisberger JD, Finnoff DC, Cooke RM, Lodge DM. 2012. Ship-borne nonindigenous species diminish Great Lakes ecosystem services. Ecosystems 15:462-476.
29. Teck SJ, Halpern BS, Kappel CV, Micheli F, Selkoe KA, Crain CM, Martone R, Shearer C, Arvai J, Fischhoff B., et al. 2010. Using expert judgment to estimate marine ecosystem vulnerability in the California current. Ecol Appl 20:1402-1416.
30. Tuomisto JT, Wilson A, Cooke RM, Tainio M, Evans JS. 2005. Mortality in Kuwait due to PM from oil fires after the Gulf War. Combining expert elicitation assessments. Epidemiology 16:S74-S75.
31. Van Overbeek FNA. 1999. Financial experts in uncertainty [Masters thesis]. Delft, the Netherlands: Delft Univ of Technology.
32. Wittmann ME, Cooke RM, Rothlisberger JD, Lodge DM. 2014. Using structured expert judgment to assess invasive species prevention: Asian carp and the Mississippi-Great Lakes hydrologic connection. Environ Sci Technol 48:2150-2156.
33. Wittmann ME, Cooke RM, Rothlisberger JD, Rutherford ES, Zhang H, Mason D, Lodge DM. 2014. Use of structured expert judgment to forecast invasions by bighead and silver carp in Lake Erie. Conserv Biol Available from: DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12369