Regime shifts limit the predictability of land-system change

Global Environmental Change

Volumn 28, Issue 1, 2014, Pages 75-83

  Müller, Daniel ^a,b   Sun, Zhanli ^a   Vongvisouk, Thoumthone ^c,d   Pflugmacher, Dirk ^b   Xu, Jianchu ^e   Mertz, Ole ^c  

^a LEIBNIZ INSTITUTE OF AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN TRANSITION ECONOMIES IAMO   (Germany)

^b HUMBOLDT UNIVERSITY   (Germany)

^c UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN   (Denmark)

^d NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF LAOS   (Laos)

^e KUNMING INSTITUTE OF BOTANY   (China)

Author keywords

Deforestation; Land use; Prediction; REDD; Southeast Asia; Sustainability

Indexed keywords

CARBON EMISSION; ECOSYSTEM SERVICE; EMISSION CONTROL; ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT; ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS; GREENHOUSE GAS; LAND USE CHANGE; POLLUTION TAX; CALIBRATION; CLIMATE CONDITIONS; COMMODITY PRICE; DEFORESTATION; EARLY WARNING SYSTEM; FUTURE PROSPECT; POLITICAL CHANGE; PREDICTION; SUSTAINABILITY; THRESHOLD; WILLINGNESS TO PAY;

SOUTHEAST ASIA; CHINA; INDONESIA; LAOS; VIET NAM;

EID: 84922378251     PISSN: 09593780     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.003     Document Type: Article

References (76)

1. Angelsen A. REDD models and baselines. Int. For. Rev. 2008, 10:465-475.
2. Angelsen A., Brockhaus M., Kanninen M., Sills E., Sunderlin W.D., Wertz-Kanounnikoff S., Abdel Nour H.O. Realising REDD+: National Strategy and Policy Options 2009, Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Bogor, Indonesia.
3. Biggs R., Carpenter S.R., Brock W.A. Turning back from the brink: detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2009, 106:826-831.
4. Boserup E. The Conditions of Agricultural Growth 1965, George Allen & Unwin Ltd., London.
5. Brandt J.S., Haynes M.A., Kuemmerle T., Waller D.M., Radeloff V.C. Regime shift on the roof of the world: alpine meadows converting to shrublands in the southern Himalayas. Biol. Conserv. 2013, 158:116-127.
6. Brook B.W., Ellis E.C., Perring M.P., Mackay A.W., Blomqvist L. Does the terrestrial biosphere have planetary tipping points?. Trends Ecol. Evol. 2013, 28:396-401.
7. Carlson K.M., Curran L.M., Ratnasari D., Pittman A.M., Soares-Filho B.S., Asner G.P., Trigg S.N., Gaveau D.A., Lawrence D., Rodrigues H.O. Committed carbon emissions, deforestation, and community land conversion from oil palm plantation expansion in West Kalimantan, Indonesia. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2012, 109:7559-7564.
8. Carpenter S.R., Folke C. Ecology for transformation. Trends Ecol. Evol. 2006, 21:309-315.
9. Chapman E.C. The expansion of rubber in southern Yunnan, China. Geogr. J. 1991, 157:36-44.
10. China Statistical Yearbook Natural Rubber Production 2011, China Statistics Press, Beijing.
11. Clark J.S., Carpenter S.R., Barber M., Collins S., Dobson A., Foley J.A., Lodge D.M., Pascual M., Pielke R., Pizer W., Pringle C., Reid W.V., Rose K.A., Sala O., Schlesinger W.H., Wall D.H., Wear D. Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative. Science 2001, 293:657-660.
12. Crutzen P.J. Geology of mankind. Nature 2002, 415:23.
13. Davidson E.A., de Araujo A.C., Artaxo P., Balch J.K., Brown I.F., Bustamante C., Coe M.M., DeFries M.T., Keller R.S., Longo M., Munger M., Schroeder J.W., Soares-Filho W., Souza B.S., Wofsy C.M.S.C. The Amazon basin in transition. Nature 2012, 481:321-328.
14. Dearing J.A., Braimoh A.K., Reenberg A., Turner B.L., van der Leeuw S. Complex land systems: the need for long time perspectives to assess their future. Ecol. Soc. 2010, 15:21. http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol15/iss24/art21.
15. DeFries R.S., Foley J.A., Asner G.P. Land-use choices: balancing human needs and ecosystem function. Front. Ecol. Environ. 2004, 2:249-257.
16. Deininger K. Challenges posed by the new wave of farmland investment. J. Peasant Stud. 2011, 38:217-247.
17. deMenocal P., Ortiz J., Guilderson T., Adkins J., Sarnthein M., Baker L., Yarusinsky M. Abrupt onset and termination of the African Humid Period: rapid climate responses to gradual insolation forcing. Quat. Sci. Rev. 2000, 19:347-361.
18. Eakin H., DeFries R., Suzi Kerr, Lambin E.F., Liu J., Peter J., Marcotullio, Messerli P., Reenberg A., Rueda X., Swaffield S.R., Wicke B., Zimmerer K. Significance of Telecoupling for Exploration of Land-Use Change 2014, vol. 14. MIT Press, Strüngmann Forum Reports, Cambridge, MA.
19. Easterling D.R., Meehl G.A., Parmesan C., Changnon S.A., Karl T.R., Mearns L.O. Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts. Science 2000, 289:2068-2074.
20. Ellis E.C., Kaplan J.O., Fuller D.Q., Vavrus S., Klein Goldewijk K., Verburg P.H. Used planet: a global history. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2013, 110:7978-7985.
21. Fearnside P., Figueiredo A.R., Bonjour S.M. Amazonian forest loss and the long reach of China's influence. Environ. Dev. Sustain. 2013, 15:325-338.
22. Folke C., Carpenter S., Walker B., Scheffer M., Elmqvist T., Gunderson L., Holling C.S. Regime shifts, resilience, and biodiversity in ecosystem management. Ann. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 2004, 35:557-581.
23. Fox J., Castella J.-C. Expansion of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) in Mainland Southeast Asia: what are the prospects for smallholders?. J. Peasant Stud. 2013, 40:155-170.
24. Ghazoul J., Butler R.A., Mateo-Vega J., Koh L.P. REDD: a reckoning of environment and development implications. Trends Ecol. Evol. 2010, 25:396-402.
25. GLP Science Plan and Implementation Strategy 2005, IGBP Secretariat, Stockholm.
26. Gould S.J., Eldredge N. Punctuated equilibria: the tempo and mode of evolution reconsidered. Paleobiology 1977, 3:115-151.
27. Gunderson L. Ecological resilience - in theory and application. Ann. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 2000, 31:425-439.
28. Haberl H., Mbow C., Deng X., Irwin E.G., Kerr S., Kuemmerle T., Mertz O., Meyfroidt P., Turner I.I.B.L. Finite land resources and competition. Rethinking Global Land Use in an Urban Era 2014, MIT Press, Cambridge. K. Seto, A. Reenberg (Eds.).
29. Holling C.S. Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Ann. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 1973, 4:1-23.
30. Hughes T.P., Carpenter S., Rockström J., Scheffer M., Walker B. Multiscale regime shifts and planetary boundaries. Trends Ecol. Evol. 2013, 28:389-395.
31. Hurni K., Hett C., Heinimann A., Messerli P., Wiesmann U. Dynamics of shifting cultivation landscapes in Northern Lao PDR between 2000 and 2009 based on an analysis of MODIS time series and Landsat images. Hum. Ecol. 2013, 41:21-36.
32. Jacquemard J.C., Jannot C. The changing oil palm sector in Indonesia. 1. Sectorial growth (1849-1996). Plant. Rech. Dev. 1999, 6:309-312.
33. Koh L.P., Wilcove D.S. Cashing in palm oil for conservation. Nature 2007, 448:993-994.
34. Koh L.P., Levang P., Ghazoul J. Designer landscapes for sustainable biofuels. Trends Ecol. Evol. 2009, 24:431-438.
35. Koh L.P., Miettinen J., Liew S.C., Ghazoul J. Remotely sensed evidence of tropical peatland conversion to oil palm. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2011, 108:5127-5132.
36. Lambin E.F. Global land availability: Malthus versus Ricardo. Glob. Food Secur. 2012, 1:83-87.
37. Lambin E.F., Geist H. Land-Use and Land-Cover Change: Local Processes and Global Impacts 2006, Springer, Berlin.
38. Lambin E.F., Meyfroidt P. Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2011, 108:3465-3472.
39. Li H., Ma Y., Aide T.M., Liu W. Past, present and future land-use in Xishuangbanna, China and the implications for carbon dynamics. For. Ecol. Manag. 2008, 255:16-24.
40. Liu J., Dietz T., Carpenter S.R., Alberti M., Folke C., Moran E., Pell A.N., Deadman P., Kratz T., Lubchenco J., Ostrom E., Ouyang Z., Provencher W., Redman C.L., Schneider S.H., Taylor W.W. Complexity of coupled human and natural systems. Science 2007, 317:1513-1516.
41. Liu J., Hull V., Batistella M., DeFries R., Dietz T., Fu F., Hertel T.W., Izaurralde R.C., Lambin E.F., Li S., Martinelli L.A., McConnell W.J., Moran E.F., Naylor R., Ouyang Z., Polenske K.R., Reenberg A., de Miranda Rocha G., Simmons C.S., Verburg P.H., Vitousek P.M., Zhang F., Zhu C. Framing sustainability in a telecoupled world. Ecol. Soc. 2013, 18:26. http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol18/iss22/art26/.
42. Mann C.C. Addicted to rubber. Science 2009, 325:564-566.
43. Mertz O., Egay K., Bruun T., Colding T. The last swiddens of Sarawak, Malaysia. Hum. Ecol. 2013, 41:109-118.
44. Meyfroidt P. Environmental cognitions, land change and social-ecological feedbacks: local case studies of forest transition in Vietnam. Hum. Ecol. 2013, 41:367-392.
45. Meyfroidt P. Environmental cognitions, land change, and social-ecological feedbacks: an overview. J. Land Use Sci. 2013, 8:341-367.
46. Morton D.C., DeFries R.S., Shimabukuro Y.E., Anderson L.O., Arai E., del Bon Espirito-Santo F., Freitas R., Morisette J. Cropland expansion changes deforestation dynamics in the southern Brazilian Amazon. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2006, 103:14637-14641.
47. Müller D., Munroe D.K. Current and future challenges in land-use science. J. Land Use Sci. 2014, 9.
48. Müller D., Zeller M. Land use dynamics in the Central Highlands of Vietnam: a spatial model combining village survey data with satellite imagery interpretation. Agric. Econ. 2002, 27:333-354.
49. Müller D., Suess S., Hoffmann A.A., Buchholz G. The value of satellite-based active fire data for monitoring, reporting and verification of REDD+ in the Lao PDR. Hum. Ecol. 2013, 41:7-20.
50. Netting R.M. Smallholders, Householders: Farm Families and the Ecology of Intensive, Sustainable Agriculture 1993, Stanford University Press, Stanford, CA.
51. Pfaff A., Robalino J., Walker R., Aldrich S., Caldas M., Reis E., Perz S., Bohrer C., Arima E., Laurance W., Kirby K. Road investments, spatial spillovers, and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. J. Reg. Sci. 2007, 47:109-123.
52. Phelps J., Carrasco L.R., Webb E.L., Koh L.P., Pascual U. Agricultural intensification escalates future conservation costs. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2013, 110:7601-7606.
53. Prishchepov A.V., Radeloff V.C., Baumann M., Kuemmerle T., Müller D. Effects of institutional changes on land use: agricultural land abandonment during the transition from state-command to market-driven economies in post-Soviet Eastern Europe. Environ. Res. Lett. 2012, 7:024021.
54. Rockström J., Steffen W., Noone K., Persson A., Chapin F.S., Lambin E.F., Lenton T.M., Scheffer M., Folke C., Schellnhuber H.J., Nykvist B., de Wit C.A., Hughes T., van der Leeuw S., Rodhe H., Sorlin S., Snyder P.K., Costanza R., Svedin U., Falkenmark M., Karlberg L., Corell R.W., Fabry V.J., Hansen J., Walker B., Liverman D., Richardson K., Crutzen P., Foley J.A. A safe operating space for humanity. Nature 2009, 461:472-475.
55. Rudel T. Defensive Environmentalists and the Dynamics of Global Reform 2013, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.
56. Scheffer M. Critical Transitions in Nature and Society 2009, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
57. Scheffer M., Carpenter S., Foley J.A., Folke C., Walker B. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 2001, 413:591-596.
58. Sikor T. The allocation of forestry land in Vietnam: did it cause the expansion of forests in the northwest?. For. Policy Econ. 2001, 2:1-11.
59. Smith P., Gregory P.J., van Vuuren D., Obersteiner M., Havlík P., Rounsevell M., Woods J., Stehfest E., Bellarby J. Competition for land. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B: Biol. Sci. 2010, 365:2941-2957.
60. Soares-Filho B., Alencar A., Nepstad D., Cerqueira G., Vera Diaz M.d.C., Rivero S., Solórzano L., Voll E. Simulating the response of land-cover changes to road paving and governance along a major Amazon highway: the SantaremCuiaba corridor. Glob. Chang. Biol. 2004, 10:745-764.
61. Thibault K.M., Brown J.H. Impact of an extreme climatic event on community assembly. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2008, 105:3410-3415.
62. Tiffen M., Mortimore M. Malthus controverted: the role of capital and technology in growth and environment recovery in Kenya. World Dev. 1994, 22:997-1010.
63. Turner I.I.B.L., Lambin E.F., Reenberg A. The emergence of land change science for global environmental change and sustainability. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2007, 104:20666-20671.
64. Turner I.I.B.L., Janetos A.C., Verburg P.H., Murray A.T. Land system architecture: using land systems to adapt and mitigate global environmental change. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2013, 23:395-397.
65. van Vliet N., Mertz O., Heinimann A., Langanke T., Pascual U., Schmook B., Adams C., Schmidt-Vogt D., Messerli P., Leisz S., Castella J.-C., Jørgensen L., Birch-Thomsen T., Hett C., Bech-Bruun T., Ickowitz A., Vu K.C., Yasuyuki K., Fox J., Padoch C., Dressler W., Ziegler A.D. Trends, drivers and impacts of changes in swidden cultivation in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers: a global assessment. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2012, 22:418-429.
66. Veldkamp A., Lambin E.F. Predicting land-use change. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2001, 85:1-6.
67. Verburg P.H., Mertz O., Erb K.-H., Haberl H., Wu W. Land system change and food security: towards multi-scale land system solutions. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain. 2013, 5:494-502.
68. Vongvisouk T., Mertz O., Thongmanivong S., Heinimann A., Phanvilay K. Shifting cultivation stability and change: contrasting pathways of land use and livelihood change in Laos. Appl. Geograp. 2014, 46:1-10.
69. Walker B., Hollin C.S., Carpenter S.R., Kinzig A. Resilience, adaptability and transformability in social-ecological systems. Ecol. Soc. 2004, 9:5. http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol9/iss2/art5/.
70. World Bank Global Economic Monitor 2013, World Bank, Washington, DC.
71. Xu J. The political, social, and ecological transformation of a landscape. Mount. Res. Dev. 2006, 26:254-262.
72. Xu J., Fox J., Vogler J., Yongshou Z., Lixin Y., Jie Q., Leisz S. Land-use and land-cover change and farmer vulnerability in Xishuangbanna Prefecture in Southwestern China. Environ. Manage. 2005, 36:404-413.
73. Xu J., Grumbine R.E., Beckschäfer P. Landscape transformation through the use of ecological and socioeconomic indicators in Xishuangbanna, Southwest China, Mekong Region. Ecol. Indic. 2014, 36:749-756.
74. Yu H., Luedeling E., Xu J. Winter and spring warming result in delayed spring phenology on the Tibetan Plateau. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2010, 107:22151-22156.
75. Ziegler A.D., Fox J.M., Xu J. The rubber juggernaut. Science 2009, 324:1024-1025.
76. Zomer R.J., Trabucco A., Wang M., Lang R., Chen H., Metzger M.J., Smajgl A., Beckschäfer P., Xu J. Environmental stratification to model climate change impacts on biodiversity and rubber production in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan, China. Biol. Conserv. 2014, 170:264-273.