Energy and mineral peaks, and a future steady state economy

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Volumn 90, Issue PB, 2015, Pages 587-598

  García Olivares, Antonio ^a   Ballabrera Poy, Joaquim ^a  

^a INSTITUT DE CIÈNCIES DEL MAR   (Spain)

Author keywords

Energy security; Limits to growth; Steady state economy; Sustainable future; US GDP

Indexed keywords

ENERGY SECURITY; FOSSIL FUELS; FUEL ECONOMY; TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING;

GLOBAL ECONOMIES; GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTS; INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES; PRODUCTION FUNCTION; STEADY STATE; SUSTAINABLE FUTURE; TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION; US GDP;

ECONOMICS;

ENERGY MARKET; FOSSIL FUEL; GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT; INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY; INNOVATION; SUSTAINABILITY;

UNITED STATES;

EID: 84922211681     PISSN: 00401625     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.013     Document Type: Article

References (74)

1. White L.A. Energy and the evolution of culture. Am. Anthropol. 1943, 45:335-356.
2. Smil V. World history and energy. Encyclopedia of Energy 2004, vol. 6:549-561. Elsevier, Amsterdam.
3. Cook E. The flow of energy in industrial society. Sci. Am. 1971, 224(3):134-148.
4. IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2010 2010, International Energy Agency, France, http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/content/book/9789264095243-en.
5. IEA World Energy Outlook 2010 2010, International Energy Agency, France, http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weo2010.pdf.
6. Laherrère J. Update on Coal. The Oil Drum http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9583.
7. Heinberg R., Fridley D. The end of cheap coal. Nature 2010, 468:367-369.
8. Bentley R.W. Global oil and gas depletion: an overview. Energy Policy 2002, 30:189-205.
9. Leggett L.M., Ball D.A. The implication for climate change and peak fossil fuel of the continuation of the current trend in wind and solar energy production. Energy Policy 2012, 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.11.022.
10. Fleming D. The Lean Guide to Nuclear Energy: A Life-Cycle in Trouble 2007, The Lean Economy Connection Publications, London.
11. Energy Watch Group Uranium resources and nuclear energy. EWG-Series No 1/2006 2006.
12. Heinberg R. The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Society, 2005 2010, New Society Publishers, Gabriola Island, Canada.
13. The Social Construction of Technological Systems 1989, The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, (See specially the contributions of Callon, Law and Hughes). W.E. Bijker, T.P. Hughes, T. Pinch (Eds.).
14. Odum H., Environment H. Power and Society 1971, Wiley-Interscience, New York.
15. Adams N. Energía y Estructura, Fondo de Cultura Económica, Mexico 1983.
16. García-Olivares A., Ballabrera J., García-Ladona E., Turiel A. A global renewable mix with proven technologies and common materials. Energy Policy 2012, 41:561-574.
17. Ayres R.U., Ayres L.W., Rade I. The Life Cycle of Copper, Its Co-products and By-products 2002, International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), http://pubs.iied.org/pdfs/G00740.pdf.
18. Boulding K.E. The economics of the coming spaceship Earth. Environmental Quality in a Growing Economy 1966, John Hopkins Press, Baltimore. H. Jarret (Ed.).
19. Tintner G., Deutsch E., Rieder R. A production function for Austria emphasizing energy. On the Measurement of Factor Productivities 1974, Vandenhoek & Ruprecht, Göttingen. F.L. Altman, O. Kyn, H.J. Wagener (Eds.).
20. Hudson E.A., Jorgenson D.W. US energy policy and economic growth, 1975-2000. Bell J. Econ. Manag. Sci. 1974, 5:461-514.
21. Kümmel R. The impact of energy on industrial growth. Energy 1982, 7(2):189-203.
22. Kümmel R., Strassl W., Gossner A., Eichhorn W. Technical progress and energy dependent production functions. J. Econ. 1985, 45(3):285-311.
23. Kümmel R. Energy as a factor of production and entropy as a pollution indicator in macroeconomic modelling. Ecol. Econ. 1989, 1:161-180.
24. Warr B., Ayres R. REXS: a forecasting model for assessing the impact of natural resource consumption and technological change on economic growth. Struct. Chang. Econ. Dyn. 2006, 17:329-378.
25. Atkeson A., Kehoe P. Models of energy use: putty-putty versus putty-clay. Am. Econ. Rev. 1999, 89(4).
26. Ayres R.U., Warr B. The Economic Growth Engine: How Energy and Work Drive Material Prosperity 2009, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK & Northampton, Massachusetts.
27. Ayres R.U., Ayres L.W., Warr B. Useful work and information as drivers of growth. 2002/121/EPS/CMER 2002, (www.insead.edu/facultyresearch/research/doc.cfm?did=1211).
28. Warr B., Ayres R. Useful work and information as drivers of economic growth. Ecol. Econ. 2012, 73:93-102.
29. Kümmel R., Henn J., Lindenberger D. Capital, labor, energy and creativity: modeling innovation diffusion. Struct. Chang. Econ. Dyn. 2002, 13:415-433.
30. Warr B., Ayres R., Eisenmenger N., Krausmann F., Schandl H. Energy use and economic development: a comparative analysis of useful work supply in Austria, Japan, the United Kingdom and the US during 100years of economic growth. Ecol. Econ. 2010, 69:1904-1917.
31. UN Department of Social Affairs World Population to 2300. ST/ESA/SER.A/236, United Nations, New York 2004.
32. King Hubbert M. Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels. Drilling and Production Practice 1956, No. 95. American Petroleum Institute & Shell Development Co. Publication, (See pp 9-11, 21-22).
33. Laherrère Fossil fuels: what future?. The Dialogue International Policy Institute, China Institute of International Studies 2007, (http://hubbertpeak.com/laherrere/Beijing20061009.pdf).
34. García D. A New World Model Including Energy and Climate Change Data. First International Workshop "Mission Earth-Modeling and Simulation for a Sustainable Future" January 2009, AGSME, Zurich, Switzerland, (http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5145).
35. Hall Ch., Powers R., Schoenberg W. Peak oil, EROEI, investments and the economy in an uncertain future. Biofuels, Solar and Wind as Renewable Energy Systems 2008, 109-132. Springer, Berlin. D. Pimentel (Ed.).
36. Ayres R.U. Turning point: the end of exponential growth?. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2006, 73:1188-1203.
37. Ayres R.U., Ayres L.W., Warr B. Exergy, power and work in the US economy, 1900-1998. Energy 2003, 28:219-273.
38. Fleiter T., Eichhammer W., Schleich J. Energy Efficiency in Electric Motor Systems: Technical Potentials and Policy Approaches for Developing Countries 2011, United Nations Industrial Development Organization, Vienna.
39. Rosen M.A., Bulucea C.A. Using exergy to understand and improve the efficiency of electrical power technologies. Entropy 2009, 11:820-835. 10.3390/e11040820.
40. Jacobson M.Z., Delucchi M.A. Providing all global energy with wind, water, and solar power, part I: technologies, energy resources, quantities and areas of infrastructure, and materials. Energy Policy 2011, 39(3):1154-1169.
41. Chapman I. The end of peak oil? Why this topic is still relevant despite recent denials. Energy Policy 2013, 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.05.010.
42. Murray J., King D. Oil's tipping point has passed. Nature 2012, 481:433-435.
43. Rogner H.H. An assessment of world hydrocarbon resources. Annu. Rev. Energy Environ. 1997, 22:217-262.
44. Adelman M.A., Lynch M.C. Fixed view of resource limits creates undue pessimism. Oil Gas J. 1997, 95(14):56-60.
45. Höök M., Sivertsson A., Aleklett K. Validity of the fossil fuel production outlooks in the IPCC emission scenarios. Nat. Resour. Res. 2010, 19(2):63-81.
46. Campbell C.J. Oil Crisis 2005, Multi-Science Publishing Co, Brentwood.
47. Laherrère J. Published figures and political reserves. World Oil January 1994, 33.
48. Ivanhoe L.F., Leckie G.G. Global oil, gas fields, sizes tallied, analyzed. Oil Gas J. 1993, 91(7):87-91.
49. Yergin D. There Will Be Oil. The Wall Street Journal September 17 2011, (Saturday, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904060604576572552998674340.html). Europe edition.
50. Mearns E. Peak Oil-Now or Later? A Response to Daniel Yergin, The Oil Drum http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8391.
51. De Castro C., Miguel L.J., Mediavilla M. The role of non conventional oil in the attenuation of peak oil. Energy Policy 2009, 37(5):1825-1833.
52. Wadia C., Alivisatos A.P., Kammen D.M. Materials availability expands the opportunity for large-scale photovoltaics deployment. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2009, 43:2072-2077.
53. Knies G. Global Energy and Climate Security through Solar Power from Deserts. Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation (TREC) in Co-operation with the Club of Rome 2006.
54. Tokimatsu K., Fujino J., Konishi S., Ogawa Y., Yamaji K. Role of nuclear fusion in future energy systems and the environment under future uncertainties. Energy Policy 2003, 31:775-797.
55. Llewellyn C., Ward D. Fusion. Energy Policy 2008, 36:4331-4334.
56. Boswell R. Is gas hydrate energy within reach?. Science 2009, 325:957-958.
57. García-Olivares A., Turiel A. The second half of the fossil fuel age: environmental externalities, net energy and energy security concerns. Fossil Fuels: Sources, Environmental Concerns and Waste Management Practices 2013, Nova Publishing, NY, USA. Kumar (Ed.).
58. Heinberg R. The End of Growth 2011, New Society Publishers, Vancouver.
59. Barnosky A.D., Hadly E.A., Bascompte J., Berlow E.L., Brown J.H., Fortelius M., Getz W.M., Harte J., Hastings A., Marquet P.A., Martinez N.D., Mooers A., Roopnarine P., Vermeij G., Williams J.W., Gillespie R., Kitzes J., Marshall C., Matzke1 N., Mindell D.P., Revilla E., Smith A.B. Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere. Nature 2012, 485:52-58. 10.1038/nature11018.
60. Grantham J. Welcome to dystopia! Entering a long-term and politically dangerous food crisis. GMO quarterly letter to investors, July 2012, (http://www.commodityintelligence.com/images/2012/aug/8th/J-grantham-letter.pdf).
61. Steen I. Phosphorus availability in the 21st century: management of a non-renewable resource. Phosphorus Potassium 1998, 217:25-31.
62. Cordell D., Drangert J.-O., Neset T.S.S. The story of phosphorus: global food security and food for thought. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2009, 19(2):292-305.
63. Bradshaw C.J.A., Giam X., Sodhi N.S. Evaluating the relative environmental impact of countries. PLoS ONE 2010, 5(5):e10440. (www.plosone.org). 10.1371/journal.pone.0010440.
64. Knight D.P. Economic Growth. Population Growth, and Climate Change, Winchester Action on Climate Change and Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability and Feasta 2014, (http://www.feasta.org/2013/08/26/economic-growth-population-growth-and-climate-change/).
65. Kerschner C. Economic de-growth vs. the steady state economy: complements or contradiction. Proceedings of the First International Conference on Economic De-growth for Ecological Sustainability and Social Equity 2008, 125-130. European Society of Ecological Economics, Paris, http://events.it-sudparis.eu/degrowthconference/appel/Degrowth%20Conference%20-%20Proceedings.pdf (April 18-19, 2008). F. Flipo, F. Schneider (Eds.).
66. A. Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, Oxford Clarendon Press, 1776.
67. Malthus T.R. An Essay on the Principle of Population 1993, Oxford University Press, Oxford/New York, (1798).
68. Mill J.S. Principle of Political Economy with some of their Applications to Social Philosophy 1888, Longmans, Green & Co, London.
69. Keynes J.M. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money 1936, Macmillan Cambridge University Press, for Royal Economic Society, Cambridge, MS.
70. Schumpeter J.A. Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy 2003, Taylor and Francis, (1942).
71. Georgescu-Roegen N. The economics of production. Am. Econ. Rev. Pap. Proc. Eight Second Annu. Meet. Am. Econ. Assoc. 1970, 60(2):1-9.
72. Meadows D.H., Randers J., Meadows D.L., Behrens W.W. The Limits to Growth: a Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind 1972, Universe Books, New York.
73. Daly H.E. Steady-state economics: concepts, questions, policies, ecological economics. GAIA 1992, I(6):333-338.
74. Martinez-Alier J. Socially sustainable economic degrowth. Dev. Chang. 2009, 40(6):1099-1119.