The future water environment - Using scenarios to explore the significant water management challenges in England and Wales to 2050

Science of the Total Environment

Volumn 512-513, Issue , 2015, Pages 381-396

  Henriques, C ^a   Garnett, K ^a   Weatherhead, E K ^a   Lickorish, F A ^a   Forrow, D ^b   Delgado, J ^a  

^a CRANFIELD UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^b ENVIRONMENT AGENCY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

DPSIR framework; EU water framework directive; River basin management; Scenario analysis; Water management

Indexed keywords

CATCHMENTS; CLIMATE CHANGE; COST EFFECTIVENESS; ECONOMICS; ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS; NUTRIENTS; RIVERS; SURFACE WATERS; SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT; WATER; WATER CONSERVATION; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER QUALITY; WATERSHEDS;

DPSIR FRAMEWORKS; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPROVEMENTS; EU-WATER FRAMEWORK DIRECTIVES; LEGISLATIVE REQUIREMENTS; LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITY; MANAGEMENT CHALLENGES; RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT; SCENARIO ANALYSIS;

POTABLE WATER;

DRINKING WATER; NITRATE;

EUROPEAN UNION; RIVER BASIN; STAKEHOLDER; SUSTAINABILITY; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY; WATER MANAGEMENT;

ARTICLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; COMPETITION; ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR; HABITAT; NUTRIENT CONTENT; POLICY; RIVER BASIN; SOCIAL STATUS; STRATEGIC PLANNING; UNITED KINGDOM; WATER ANALYSIS; WATER AVAILABILITY; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER QUALITY; WATER STRUCTURE; ENVIRONMENT; ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; PROCEDURES; STATISTICS AND NUMERICAL DATA; WATER SUPPLY;

ENGLAND; UNITED KINGDOM; WALES;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES; ENGLAND; ENVIRONMENT; ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING; WALES; WATER RESOURCES; WATER SUPPLY;

EID: 84921915006     PISSN: 00489697     EISSN: 18791026     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.12.047     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Environmental Futures: The practice of Environmental Scenario Analysis. Development in Integrated Environmental Assessment 2008, vol. 2. Elsevier, The Netherlands, (212 pp.). J. Alcamo (Ed.).
2. Climate Change and Water. Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2008, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, (210 pp.). B.C. Bates, Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu, J.P. Palutikof (Eds.).
3. Böjeson L., Mattias H., Karl-Henrik D., Ekvall T., Göran F. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques. KTH Architecture and the Built Environment 2005, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm.
4. Bouma Visioning workshop. PSI-connect project factsheet Available from. http://www.psiconnect.eu.
5. Bowman G., MacKay B., Masrani S., McKiernan P. Storytelling and the scenario process: understanding success and failure. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2013, 80(4):735-748. 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.04.009.
6. Bradfield R., Wright G., Burt G., Cairns G., Van Der Heijden K. The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning. Futures 2005, 37:795-812.
7. Brown D. Horizon scanning and the business environment - the implications for risk management. BT Technol. J. 2007, 25(1):208-214.
8. CEH Why: monitor upland catchments? (online) Available at, (accessed March 2014). http://www.ceh.ac.uk/sci_programmes/water/documents/watermonitoringsites_leaflet_plynlimon.pdf.
9. Charron D.F., Thomas M.K., Waltner-Toews D., Aramini J.J., Edge T., Kent R.A., Maarouf A.R., Wilson J. Vulnerability of waterborne diseases to climate change in Canada: a review. J. Toxicol. Environ. Health A Curr. Issues 2004, 67(20-22):1667-1677.
10. Chermack T.J. Scenario Planning in Organizations - How to Create, Use, and Assess Scenarios 2011, Berret-Koehler Publishers, (288 pp.).
11. Chinabut S., Somsiri T., Limsuwan C., Lewis S. Problems associated with shellfish farming. Rev. Sci. Tech. Off. Int. Epizoot. 2006, 25(2):627-635.
12. Cooper J., Lombardi R., Boardman D., Carliell-Marquet C. The future distribution and production of global phosphate rock reserves resources. Conserv. Recycl. 2011, 57:78-86.
13. Defra Water for Life: White Paper 2011, TSO, London, (Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/water-for-life, accessed December 2014).
14. Delgado J., Henriques C., Garnett K., Lickorish F., Forrow D., Holman I.P., Rathé A., Shaw H., Prpich G., Weeks J., Pollard S. Delivering sustainable river basin management: plausible future scenarios for water and the water environment to 2030 & 2050. Report B: Full Scenarios 2014, Cranfield University, UK.
15. Dong C., Schoups G., van de Giesen N. Scenario development for water resource planning and management: a review. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2013, 80(4):749-761.
16. Durance P., Godet M. Scenarios building: uses and abuses. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2010, 77:1488-1492.
17. Environment Agency Environment Agency scenarios 2030 (online) Available at, (accessed March 2012). http://cdn.environment-agency.gov.uk/scho0606blem-e-e.pdf.
18. Environment Agency Water for life and livelihoods England's waters: challenges and choices. Summary of significant water management issues - a consultation (online) Available at:, (accessed Feb 2014). https://consult.environment-agency.gov.uk/portal/ho/wfd/water/choices?pointId=s1359025359987#section-s1359025359987.
19. Environment Agency Current and future water availability - addendum. A refresh of the case for change analysis (online) Available at:, (accessed Feb 2014). https://brand.environment-agency.gov.uk/mb/5OHfl.
20. Environment Agency Water for life and livelihoods - managing water for people, business, agriculture and the environment (online) Available at:, (accessed March 2014). https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/297311/LIT_8412_efb268.pdf.
21. Environment Agency (2013d). Water quality in the 2050s: water quality future scenarios. Unpublished. Available on request at. mailto:enquiries@environment-agency.gov.uk.
22. European Environment Agency European waters - assessment of status and pressures. EEA Report No 8/2012 2012, (accessed March 2014).
23. Garnett K., Henriques C., Delgado J., Lickorish F., Forrow D., Holman I.P., Rathé A., Shaw H., Prpich G., Weeks J., Pollard S. Delivering sustainable river basin management: plausible future scenarios for water and the water environment to 2030&2050. Report A: Overview 2014, Cranfield University, UK.
24. Gordon A. Analytical vs. judgement foresight. Futures Analyst Meeting, 20th May London (online) 2008, (Available at: http://www.slideshare.net/adgo/analytical-vs-judgmental-foresight, accessed March 2014).
25. Greeuw S.C.H., van Asselt M.B.A., Grosskurth J., Storms C.A.M.H., Rijkens-Klomp N., Rothman D.S., Rotmans J. Cloudy crystal balls: an assessment of recent European and global scenario studies and models. Environmental Issues Series 2000, 17. European Environment Agency, Copenhagen.
26. Haasnoot M., Middelkoop H. A history of futures: a review of scenario use in water policy studies in the Netherlands. Environ. Sci. Pol. 2012, 19-20:108-120.
27. Henriques C., Jeffrey P. Interim synthesis report. Final version of Deliverable No 5.1 of the EC FP7 project PSI-connect. EC Contract No. 226915. March 2012, Cranfield, UK 2012.
28. Henriques C., Delgado J., Garnett K., Lickorish F., Forrow D., Holman I.P., Rathé A., Shaw H., Prpich G., Weeks J., Pollard S. Delivering sustainable river basin management: plausible future scenarios for water and the water environment to 2030 & 2050. Report C: Implications 2014, Cranfield University, UK.
29. Hooda P.S., Edwards A.C., Miller A. A review of water quality concerns in livestock farming areas. Sci. Total Environ. 2000, 250(1-3):143-167.
30. House J.I., Orr H.G., Clark J.M., Gallego-Sala A.V., Freeman C., Prentice I.C., Smith P. Climate change and the British Uplands: evidence for decision-making. Clim. Res. 2010, 45(1):3-12. Introduction. 10.3354/cr00982.
31. Hulme M., Dessai S. Predicting, deciding, learning: can one evaluate the 'success' of national climate scenarios?. Environ. Res. Lett. 2008, 3(4):1-7.
32. Knox J., Daccache A., Weatherhead E.K., Groves S., Hulin A. Assessing climate and land use impacts on water demand for agriculture and opportunities for adaptation (FFG1129). Final Report 2013, Cranfield University.
33. Kristensen P. The DPSIR framework, workshop on a comprehensive/detailed assessment of the vulnerability of water resources to environmental change in Africa using river basin approach 2004, UNEP Headquarters, Nairobi, Kenya.
34. Le Corre K.S., Valsami-Jones E., Hobbs P., Parsons S.A. Phosphorus recovery from wastewater by struvite crystallization: a review. Crit. Rev. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2009, 39(6):433-477. 10.1080/10643380701640573.
35. Lienert J., Monstadt J., Truffer B. Future scenarios for a sustainable water sector: a case study from Switzerland. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2006, 40(2):436-442.
36. Maack J. Scenario analysis: a tool for task managers. Social Development Papers 2001, 36. The World Bank, Washington D.C.
37. Mietzner D., Reger G. Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight. Int. J. Technol. Intell. Plan. 2005, 1(2):220-239.
38. Mounce S.R., Shepherd W., Sailor G., Shucksmith J., Saul A.J. Predicting combined sewer overflows chamber depth using artificial neural networks with rainfall radar data. Water Sci. Technol. J. Int. Assoc. Water Pollut. Res. 2014, 69(6):1326-1333. 10.2166/wst.2014.024.
39. Pillkahn U. Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development 2008, Publicis Corporate Publishing, Germany.
40. Pinto R., de Jonge V.N., Neto J.M., Domingos T., Marques J.C., Patricio J. Towards a DPSIR driven integration of ecological value, water uses and ecosystem services for estuarine systems. Ocean Coast. Manag. 2013, 72(SI):64-79. 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2011.06.016.
41. Puhr C.B., Donoghue D.N.M., Stephen A.B., Tervet D.J., Sinclair C. Regional patterns of streamwater acidity and catchment afforestation in Galloway, SW Scotland. Water Air Soil Pollut. 2000, 120(1-2):47-70.
42. Rasi Nezami S.R., Nazariha M., Moridi A., Baghvand A. Environmentally sound water resources management in catchment level using DPSIR model and scenario analysis. Int. J. Environ. Res. 2013, 7(3):569-580.
43. The Futures Company Socio-economic scenarios for water to 2050: a report for the Environment Agency Available on request at. http://enquiries@environment-agency.gov.uk.
44. The Futures Company Environment Agency: building electricity generation scenarios to identify water demand impacts Available on request at. http://enquiries@environment-agency.gov.uk.
45. Van der Heijden K. Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation 1996, Wiley, New York, (305 pp.).
46. Walmsley J. Framework measuring for sustainable development in catchment systems. J. Environ. Manag. 2002, 29(2):195-206.
47. Wang L., Stuart M.E., Bloomfield J.P., Butcher A.S., Gooddy D.C., McKenzie A.A., Lewis M.A., Williams A.T. Prediction of the arrival of peak nitrate concentrations at the water table at the regional scale in Great Britain. Hydrol. Process. 2011, 26(2):226-239. 10.1002/hyp.8164.
48. WaterStrategyMan Project (n.d.). The WaterStrategyMan DSS: a comprehensive decision support system for the development of sustainable water management strategies (online). Available at: (accessed January 2014). http://environ.chemeng.ntua.gr/wsm/Default.aspx?t=60#Deliverable16.
49. Wright G., Van der Heijden K., Burt G., Bradfield R., Cairns G. Scenario planning interventions in organizations: an analysis of the causes of success and failure. Futures 2008, 40:218-236.