메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 35, Issue 2, 2015, Pages 148-161

Calibration of complex models through bayesian evidence synthesis: A demonstration and tutorial

Author keywords

Markov models; multiparameter evidence synthesis; probabilistic sensitivity analysis; simulation methods

Indexed keywords

ALGORITHM; BAYES THEOREM; COMPUTER SIMULATION; CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDY; DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM; FEMALE; HUMAN; HUMAN PAPILLOMAVIRUS TYPE 16; MARKOV CHAIN; PAPILLOMAVIRUS INFECTIONS; PROBABILITY; REGISTER; STATISTICAL MODEL; UNITED KINGDOM; UTERINE CERVICAL NEOPLASMS; VIROLOGY;

EID: 84921414403     PISSN: 0272989X     EISSN: 1552681X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/0272989X13493143     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (29)

References (46)
  • 1
    • 0037206042 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A rational framework for decision-making by the National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE)
    • Claxton K, Sculpher M, Drummond M. A rational framework for decision-making by the National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE). Lancet. 2002 ; 3600 (9334). 711-15
    • (2002) Lancet , vol.3600 , Issue.9334 , pp. 711-715
    • Claxton, K.1    Sculpher, M.2    Drummond, M.3
  • 2
  • 3
    • 79960522971 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A framework for addressing structural uncertainty in decision models
    • Jackson CH, Bojke L, Thompson SG, Claxton K, Sharples LD. A framework for addressing structural uncertainty in decision models. Med Decis Making. 2011 ; 310 (4). 662-74
    • (2011) Med Decis Making , vol.310 , Issue.4 , pp. 662-674
    • Ch, J.1    Bojke, L.2    Thompson, S.G.3    Claxton, K.4    Sharples, L.D.5
  • 4
    • 41949091355 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Adding a quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine to the UK cervical cancer screening programme: A cost-effectiveness analysis
    • Kulasingam SL, Benard S, Barnabas RV, Largeron N, Myers ER. Adding a quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine to the UK cervical cancer screening programme: a cost-effectiveness analysis. Cost Eff Resour Alloc. 2008 ; 6: 4
    • (2008) Cost Eff Resour Alloc , vol.6 , pp. 4
    • Kulasingam, S.L.1    Benard, S.2    Barnabas, R.V.3    Largeron, N.4    Myers, E.R.5
  • 5
    • 33744473761 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Epidemiology of HPV 16 and cervical cancer in Finland and the potential impact of vaccination: Mathematical modelling analyses
    • Barnabas RV, Laukkanen P, Koskela P, Kontula O, Lehtinen M, Garnett GP. Epidemiology of HPV 16 and cervical cancer in Finland and the potential impact of vaccination: mathematical modelling analyses. PLoS Med. 2006 ; 30 (5). e138
    • (2006) PLoS Med , vol.30 , Issue.5 , pp. 138
    • Barnabas, R.V.1    Laukkanen, P.2    Koskela, P.3    Kontula, O.4    Lehtinen, M.5    Garnett, G.P.6
  • 6
    • 33846242622 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating the long-term impact of a prophylactic human papillomavirus 16/18 vaccine on the burden of cervical cancer in the UK
    • Kohli M, Ferko N, Martin A, et al. Estimating the long-term impact of a prophylactic human papillomavirus 16/18 vaccine on the burden of cervical cancer in the UK. Br J Cancer. 2006 ; 960 (1). 143-50
    • (2006) Br J Cancer , vol.960 , Issue.1 , pp. 143-150
    • Kohli, M.1    Ferko, N.2    Martin, A.3
  • 7
    • 0037108452 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Empirically calibrated model of hepatitis C virus infection in the United States
    • Salomon JA, Weinstein MC, Hammitt JK, Goldie SJ. Empirically calibrated model of hepatitis C virus infection in the United States. Am J Epidemiol. 2002 ; 1560 (8). 761-73
    • (2002) Am J Epidemiol , vol.1560 , Issue.8 , pp. 761-773
    • Salomon, J.A.1    Weinstein, M.C.2    Hammitt, J.K.3    Goldie, S.J.4
  • 8
    • 40949162892 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening with human papillomavirus DNA testing and HPV-16, 18 vaccination
    • Goldhaber-Fiebert JD, Stout NK, Salomon JA, Kuntz KM, Goldie SJ. Cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening with human papillomavirus DNA testing and HPV-16, 18 vaccination. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2008 ; 1000 (5). 308-20
    • (2008) J Natl Cancer Inst , vol.1000 , Issue.5 , pp. 308-320
    • Goldhaber-Fiebert, J.D.1    Stout, N.K.2    Salomon, J.A.3    Kuntz, K.M.4    Goldie, S.J.5
  • 9
    • 34447622185 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multiparameter calibration of a natural history model of cervical cancer
    • Kim JJ, Kuntz KM, Stout NK, et al. Multiparameter calibration of a natural history model of cervical cancer. Am J Epidemiol. 2007 ; 1660 (2). 137-50
    • (2007) Am J Epidemiol , vol.1660 , Issue.2 , pp. 137-150
    • Kim, J.J.1    Kuntz, K.M.2    Stout, N.K.3
  • 10
    • 49549088827 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Economic evaluation of human papillomavirus vaccination in the United Kingdom
    • Jit M, Choi Y-H, Edmunds WJ. Economic evaluation of human papillomavirus vaccination in the United Kingdom. Br Med J. 2008 ; 337: a769
    • (2008) Br Med J , vol.337 , pp. 769
    • Jit, M.1    Choi, Y.-H.2    Edmunds, W.J.3
  • 11
    • 75949102203 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating progression rates for human papillomavirus infection from epidemiological data
    • Jit M, Gay N, Soldan K, Choi YH, Edmunds WJ. Estimating progression rates for human papillomavirus infection from epidemiological data. Med Decis Making. 2010 ; 300 (1). 84-98
    • (2010) Med Decis Making , vol.300 , Issue.1 , pp. 84-98
    • Jit, M.1    Gay, N.2    Soldan, K.3    Choi, Y.H.4    Edmunds, W.J.5
  • 12
    • 78650192881 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Calibrating models in economic evaluation: A seven-step approach
    • Vanni T, Karnon J, Madan J, et al. Calibrating models in economic evaluation: a seven-step approach. Pharmacoeconomics. 2011 ; 290 (1). 35-49
    • (2011) Pharmacoeconomics , vol.290 , Issue.1 , pp. 35-49
    • Vanni, T.1    Karnon, J.2    Madan, J.3
  • 13
    • 84855890468 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Incorporating calibrated model parameters into sensitivity analyses: Deterministic and probabilistic approaches
    • Taylor DCA, Pawar V, Kruzikas DT, Gilmore KE, Sanon M, Weinstein MC. Incorporating calibrated model parameters into sensitivity analyses: deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Pharmacoeconomics. 2012 ; 300 (2). 119-26
    • (2012) Pharmacoeconomics , vol.300 , Issue.2 , pp. 119-126
    • Taylor, D.C.A.1    Pawar, V.2    Kruzikas, D.T.3    Gilmore, K.E.4    Sanon, M.5    Weinstein, M.C.6
  • 14
    • 78650188893 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Calibrating models in economic evaluation: A comparison of alternative measures of goodness of fit, parameter search strategies and convergence criteria
    • Karnon J, Vanni T. Calibrating models in economic evaluation: a comparison of alternative measures of goodness of fit, parameter search strategies and convergence criteria. Pharmacoeconomics. 2011 ; 290 (1). 51-62
    • (2011) Pharmacoeconomics , vol.290 , Issue.1 , pp. 51-62
    • Karnon, J.1    Vanni, T.2
  • 15
    • 33645089927 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multiparameter evidence synthesis in epidemiology and medical decision-making: Current approaches
    • Ades AE, Sutton AJ. Multiparameter evidence synthesis in epidemiology and medical decision-making: current approaches. J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc. 2006 ; 1690 (1). 5-35
    • (2006) J R Stat Soc ser A Stat Soc , vol.1690 , Issue.1 , pp. 5-35
    • Ades, A.E.1    Sutton, A.J.2
  • 18
    • 1442300946 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comprehensive decision analytical modelling in economic evaluation: A Bayesian approach
    • Cooper NJ, Sutton AJ, Abrams KR, Turner D, Wailoo A. Comprehensive decision analytical modelling in economic evaluation: a Bayesian approach. Health Econ. 2004 ; 130 (3). 203-26
    • (2004) Health Econ , vol.130 , Issue.3 , pp. 203-226
    • Cooper, N.J.1    Sutton, A.J.2    Abrams, K.R.3    Turner, D.4    Wailoo, A.5
  • 19
    • 43949122200 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimates of human immunodeficiency virus prevalence and proportion diagnosed based on Bayesian multiparameter synthesis of surveillance data
    • Goubar A, Ades AE, DeAngelis D, et al. Estimates of human immunodeficiency virus prevalence and proportion diagnosed based on Bayesian multiparameter synthesis of surveillance data. J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc. 2008 ; 1710 (3). 541-80
    • (2008) J R Stat Soc ser A Stat Soc , vol.1710 , Issue.3 , pp. 541-580
    • Goubar, A.1    Ades, A.E.2    Deangelis, D.3
  • 20
    • 52649157087 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Conflicting evidence in a Bayesian synthesis of surveillance data to estimate human immunodeficiency virus prevalence
    • Presanis AM, De Angelis D, Spiegelhalter DJ, Seaman S, Goubar A, Ades AE. Conflicting evidence in a Bayesian synthesis of surveillance data to estimate human immunodeficiency virus prevalence. J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc. 2008 ; 1710 (4). 915-37
    • (2008) J R Stat Soc ser A Stat Soc , vol.1710 , Issue.4 , pp. 915-937
    • Presanis, A.M.1    De Angelis, D.2    Spiegelhalter, D.J.3    Seaman, S.4    Goubar, A.5    Ades, A.E.6
  • 21
    • 79960481291 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian calibration of a natural history model with application to a population model for colorectal cancer
    • Whyte S, Walsh C, Chilcott J. Bayesian calibration of a natural history model with application to a population model for colorectal cancer. Med Decis Making. 2011 ; 310 (4). 625-41
    • (2011) Med Decis Making , vol.310 , Issue.4 , pp. 625-641
    • Whyte, S.1    Walsh, C.2    Chilcott, J.3
  • 22
    • 77950432041 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Model-based estimation of viral transmissibility and infection-induced resistance from the age-dependent prevalence of infection for 14 high-risk types of human papillomavirus
    • Bogaards JA, Xiridou M, Coupé VMH, Meijer CJLM, Wallinga J, Berkhof J. Model-based estimation of viral transmissibility and infection-induced resistance from the age-dependent prevalence of infection for 14 high-risk types of human papillomavirus. Am J Epidemiol. 2010 ; 1710 (7). 817
    • (2010) Am J Epidemiol , vol.1710 , Issue.7 , pp. 817
    • Bogaards, J.A.1    Xiridou, M.2    Coupé, V.M.H.3    Cjlm, M.4    Wallinga, J.5    Berkhof, J.6
  • 23
    • 80054831192 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparing bivalent and quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccines: Economic evaluation based on transmission model
    • Jit M, Chapman R, Hughes O, Choi Y-H. Comparing bivalent and quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccines: economic evaluation based on transmission model. Br Med J. 2011 ; 343: d5775
    • (2011) Br Med J , vol.343 , pp. 5775
    • Jit, M.1    Chapman, R.2    Hughes, O.3    Choi, Y.-H.4
  • 24
    • 33745553899 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • HPV testing in routine cervical screening: Cross sectional data from the ARTISTIC trial
    • Kitchener HC, Almonte M, Wheeler P, et al. HPV testing in routine cervical screening: cross sectional data from the ARTISTIC trial. Br J Cancer. 2006 ; 950 (1). 56-61
    • (2006) Br J Cancer , vol.950 , Issue.1 , pp. 56-61
    • Kitchener, H.C.1    Almonte, M.2    Wheeler, P.3
  • 26
    • 0042307623 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic sensitivity analysis for decision trees with multiple branches: Use of the Dirichlet distribution in a Bayesian framework
    • Briggs AH, Ades AE, Price MJ. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis for decision trees with multiple branches: use of the Dirichlet distribution in a Bayesian framework. Med Decis Making. 2003 ; 230 (4). 341-50
    • (2003) Med Decis Making , vol.230 , Issue.4 , pp. 341-350
    • Briggs, A.H.1    Ades, A.E.2    Price, M.J.3
  • 28
    • 69049115282 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Epidemiologic natural history and clinical management of human papillomavirus (HPV) disease: A critical and systematic review of the literature in the development of an HPV dynamic transmission model
    • Insinga RP, Dasbach EJ, Elbasha EH. Epidemiologic natural history and clinical management of human papillomavirus (HPV) disease: a critical and systematic review of the literature in the development of an HPV dynamic transmission model. BMC Infect Dis. 2009 ; 90 (1). 119
    • (2009) BMC Infect Dis , vol.90 , Issue.1 , pp. 119
    • Insinga, R.P.1    Dasbach, E.J.2    Elbasha, E.H.3
  • 30
    • 33646048017 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evidence synthesis, parameter correlation and probabilistic sensitivity analysis
    • Ades AE, Claxton K, Sculpher M. Evidence synthesis, parameter correlation and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Health Econ. 2006 ; 150 (4). 373-81
    • (2006) Health Econ , vol.150 , Issue.4 , pp. 373-381
    • Ades, A.E.1    Claxton, K.2    Sculpher, M.3
  • 32
    • 0006407254 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • WinBUGS - A Bayesian modelling framework: Concepts, structure, and extensibility
    • Lunn DJ, Thomas A, Best NG, Spiegelhalter DJ. WinBUGS - a Bayesian modelling framework: concepts, structure, and extensibility. Stat Comput. 2000 ; 100 (4). 325-37
    • (2000) Stat Comput , vol.100 , Issue.4 , pp. 325-337
    • Lunn, D.J.1    Thomas, A.2    Best, N.G.3    Spiegelhalter, D.J.4
  • 35
    • 74049135676 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertainty and validation of health economic decision models
    • Kim LG, Thompson DG. Uncertainty and validation of health economic decision models. Health Econ. 2009 ; 190 (1). 43-55
    • (2009) Health Econ , vol.190 , Issue.1 , pp. 43-55
    • Kim, L.G.1    Thompson, D.G.2
  • 36
    • 84868138320 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Model transparency and validation: A report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force Working Group, part 4
    • Eddy DM, Hollingworth W, Caro JJ, Tsevat J, McDonald KM, Wong JB. Model transparency and validation: a report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force Working Group, part 4. Med Decis Making. 2012 ; 32: 733-43
    • (2012) Med Decis Making , vol.32 , pp. 733-743
    • Eddy, D.M.1    Hollingworth, W.2    Caro, J.J.3    Tsevat, J.4    McDonald, K.M.5    Wong, J.B.6
  • 38
    • 45849088346 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Penalized loss functions for Bayesian model comparison
    • Plummer M. Penalized loss functions for Bayesian model comparison. Biostatistics. 2008 ; 90 (3). 523-39
    • (2008) Biostatistics , vol.90 , Issue.3 , pp. 523-539
    • Plummer, M.1
  • 40
    • 77950543869 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modularization in Bayesian analysis, with emphasis on analysis of computer models
    • Liu F, Bayarri M, Berger J. Modularization in Bayesian analysis, with emphasis on analysis of computer models. Bayesian Anal. 2009 ; 40 (1). 119-50
    • (2009) Bayesian Anal , vol.40 , Issue.1 , pp. 119-150
    • Liu, F.1    Bayarri, M.2    Berger, J.3
  • 41
    • 52649181672 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Research prioritization based on expected value of partial perfect information: A case study on interventions to increase uptake of breast cancer screening
    • Welton NJ, Ades AE, Caldwell DM, Peters TJ. Research prioritization based on expected value of partial perfect information: a case study on interventions to increase uptake of breast cancer screening. J R Stat Soc Ser A. 2008 ; 1710 (4). 807-41
    • (2008) J R Stat Soc ser A , vol.1710 , Issue.4 , pp. 807-841
    • Welton, N.J.1    Ades, A.E.2    Caldwell, D.M.3    Peters, T.J.4
  • 42
    • 3142661757 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Against which human papillomavirus types shall we vaccinate and screen? the international perspective
    • Munoz N, Bosch FX, Castellsague X, et al. Against which human papillomavirus types shall we vaccinate and screen? The international perspective. Int J Cancer. 2004 ; 1110 (2). 278-85
    • (2004) Int J Cancer , vol.1110 , Issue.2 , pp. 278-285
    • Munoz, N.1    Bosch, F.X.2    Castellsague, X.3
  • 43
    • 84921336850 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • London, UK: Office for National Statistics;
    • London, UK: Office for National Statistics ; 2003:
    • (2003)
  • 44
    • 0035063068 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hysterectomy prevalence and adjusted cervical and uterine cancer rates in England and Wales
    • Redburn JC, Murphy MFG. Hysterectomy prevalence and adjusted cervical and uterine cancer rates in England and Wales. BJOG. 2001 ; 1080 (4). 388-95
    • (2001) BJOG , vol.1080 , Issue.4 , pp. 388-395
    • Redburn, J.C.1    Murphy, M.F.G.2
  • 45
    • 0034673956 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Accuracy of the Papanicolaou test in screening for and follow-up of cervical cytologic abnormalities
    • Nanda K, McCrory DC, Myers ER, et al. Accuracy of the Papanicolaou test in screening for and follow-up of cervical cytologic abnormalities. Ann Intern Med. 2000 ; 1320 (10). 810-19
    • (2000) Ann Intern Med , vol.1320 , Issue.10 , pp. 810-819
    • Nanda, K.1    McCrory, D.C.2    Myers, E.R.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.