Estimating progression rates for human papillomavirus infection from epidemiological data

Medical Decision Making

Volumn 30, Issue 1, 2010, Pages 84-98

  Jit, Mark ^a   Gay, Nigel ^a   Soldan, Kate ^a   Hong Choi, Yoon ^a   Edmunds, William John ^a  

^a PUBLIC HEALTH ENGLAND   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Cervical intraepithelial neoplasms; Markov process; Mathematical model; Papillomavirus infections; Uncertainty.

Indexed keywords

ADULT; ARTICLE; DISEASE COURSE; EARLY DIAGNOSIS; FEMALE; HUMAN; HUMAN PAPILLOMAVIRUS TYPE 16; HUMAN PAPILLOMAVIRUS TYPE 18; ISOLATION AND PURIFICATION; MIDDLE AGED; PAPILLOMAVIRUS INFECTION; PATHOGENICITY; PATHOPHYSIOLOGY; PROBABILITY; UNCERTAINTY; UNITED KINGDOM; UTERINE CERVIX TUMOR;

ADULT; DISEASE PROGRESSION; EARLY DETECTION OF CANCER; ENGLAND; FEMALE; HUMAN PAPILLOMAVIRUS 16; HUMAN PAPILLOMAVIRUS 18; HUMANS; MARKOV CHAINS; MIDDLE AGED; PAPILLOMAVIRUS INFECTIONS; UNCERTAINTY; UTERINE CERVICAL NEOPLASMS; WALES; YOUNG ADULT;

EID: 75949102203     PISSN: 0272989X     EISSN: 1552681X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/0272989X09336140     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. Danaei G., Vander HS, Lopez AD, Murray CJ, Ezzati M. Causes of cancer in the world: comparative risk assessment of nine behavioural and environmental risk factors. Lancet. 2005 ; 366 (9499). 1784-1793.
2. FUTURE II Study Group. Quadrivalent vaccine against human papillomavirus to prevent high-grade cervical lesions. N Engl J Med. 2007 ; 356 (19). 1915-1927.
3. Harper DM, Franco EL, Wheeler C., et al. Efficacy of a bivalent L1 virus-like particle vaccine in prevention of infection with human papillomavirus types 16 and 18 in young women: a randomised controlled trial. Lancet. 2004 ; 364 (9447). 1757-1765.
4. Kulasingam SL, Myers ER Potential health and economic impact of adding a human papillomavirus vaccine to screening programs. JAMA. 2003 ; 290 (6). 781-789.
5. Jit M., Choi YH, Edmunds WJ Economic evaluation of human papillomavirus vaccination in the United Kingdom. BMJ. 2008 ; 337: a769.
6. Elbasha EH, Dasbach EJ, Insinga RP Model for assessing human papillomavirus vaccination strategies. Emerg Infect Dis. 2007 ; 13 (1). 28-41.
7. Kohli M., Ferko N., Martin A., et al. Estimating the long-term impact of a prophylactic human papillomavirus 16/18 vaccine on the burden of cervical cancer in the UK. Br J Cancer. 2006 ; 96: 143-150.
8. Myers ER, McCrory DC, Nanda K., Bastian L., Matchar DB Mathematical model for the natural history of human papillomavirus infection and cervical carcinogenesis. Am J Epidemiol. 2000 ; 151 (12). 1158-1171.
9. Goldie SJ, Grima D., Kohli M., Wright TC, Weinstein M., Franco E. A comprehensive natural history model of HPV infection and cervical cancer to estimate the clinical impact of a prophylactic HPV-16/18 vaccine. Int J Cancer. 2003 ; 106 (6). 896-904.
10. Canfell K., Barnabas R., Patnick J., Beral V. The predicted effect of changes in cervical screening practice in the UK: results from a modelling study. Br J Cancer. 2004 ; 91 (3). 530-536.
11. Barnabas RV, Laukkanen P., Koskela P., Kontula O., Lehtinen M., Garnett GP Epidemiology of HPV 16 and cervical cancer in Finland and the potential impact of vaccination: mathematical modelling analyses. PLoS Med. 2006 ; 3 (5). e138.
12. Kulasingam SL, Benard S., Barnabas RV, Largeron N., Myers ER Adding a quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine to the UK cervical cancer screening programme: a cost-effectiveness analysis. Cost Eff Resour Alloc. 2008 ; 6 (1). 4.
13. Department of Health Statistical Bulletin. Cervical Screening Programme, England: 2005-06. Available from: http://www.ic.nhs.uk/pubs/csp0506
14. Kitchener HC, Almonte M., Wheeler P., et al. HPV testing in routine cervical screening: cross sectional data from the ARTISTIC trial. Br J Cancer. 2006 ; 95 (1). 56-61.
15. Kim JJ Human papillomavirus vaccination in the UK. BMJ. 2008 ; 337: a842.
16. Sasieni P., Adams J. Changing rates of adenocarcinoma and adenosquamous carcinoma of the cervix in England. Lancet. 2001 ; 357 (9267). 1490-1493.
17. Bagnall H., Pearmain P., Clare J., Lawrence G. A new method for the classification of invasive cervical cancer screening histories. J Med Screen. 2006 ; 13 (3). 137-147.
18. Clifford G., Franceschi S., Diaz M., Munoz N., Villa LL Chapter 3: HPV type-distribution in women with and without cervical neoplastic diseases. Vaccine. 2006 ; 24 (suppl 3). S26-34.
19. Munoz N., Bosch FX, de Sanjose S., et al. Epidemiologic classification of human papillomavirus types associated with cervical cancer. N Engl J Med. 2003 ; 348 (6). 518-527. (Pubitemid 36159887)
20. Redburn JC, Murphy MF Hysterectomy prevalence and adjusted cervical and uterine cancer rates in England and Wales. BJOG. 2001 ; 108 (4). 388-395.
21. Plummer M., Schiffman M., Castle PE, Maucort-Boulch D., Wheeler CM A 2-year prospective study of human papillomavirus persistence among women with a cytological diagnosis of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance or low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion. J Infect Dis. 2007 ; 195 (11). 1582-1589.
22. Health Protection Agency. Trends in anogenital warts and anogenital herpes simplex virus infection in the United Kingdom: 1996 to 2005. CDR Weekly. 2006 ; 16 (48). 30.
23. Jit M., Vyse A., Borrow R., Pebody R., Soldan K., Miller E. Prevalence of human papillomavirus antibodies in young female subjects in England. Br J Cancer. 2007 ; 97 (7). 989-991.
24. Cubie HA, Plumstead M., Zhang W., de Jesus O., Duncan LA, Stanley MA Presence of antibodies to human papillomavirus virus-like particles (VLPs) in 11-13-year-old schoolgirls. J Med Virol. 1998 ; 56 (3). 210-216.
25. Poljak M., Marin IJ, Seme K., Vince A. Hybrid Capture II HPV test detects at least 15 human papillomavirus genotypes not included in its current high-risk probe cocktail. J Clin Virol. 2002 ; 25 (suppl 3). S89-97.
26. Sargent A., Bailey A., Turner A., Wheeler P., Kitchener HC, Peto J. Genotyping and Confirmatory Testing of HPV Digene Hybrid Capture« 2 (HC2) Positive Cervical Samples. 22nd International Papillomavirus Conference and Clinical Workshop ; April 30 to May 6, 2005 ; Vancouver, Canada.
27. Nanda K., McCrory DC, Myers ER, et al. Accuracy of the Papanicolaou test in screening for and follow-up of cervical cytologic abnormalities: a systematic review. Ann Intern Med. 2000 ; 132 (10). 810-819.
28. Arbyn M., Bergeron C., Klinkhamer P., Martin-Hirsch P., Siebers AG, Bulten J. Liquid compared with conventional cervical cytology: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Obstet Gynecol. 2008 ; 111 (1). 167-177.
29. Martin-Hirsch P., Rash B., Martin A., Standaert B. Management of women with abnormal cervical cytology: treatment patterns and associated costs in England and Wales. BJOG. 2007 ; 114 (4). 408-415.
30. Da Forno PD, Holbrook MR, Nunns D., Shaw PA Long-term follow-up of patients following negative colposcopy: a new gold standard and its implications for cervical screening. Cytopathology. 2003 ; 14 (5). 281-286.
31. Eggington S., Hadwin R., Brennan A., Walker P. Modelling the Impact of Referral Guideline Changes for Mild Dyskaryosis on Colposcopy Services in England. NHSCSP Publication No 24. Sheffield: NHS Cancer Screening Programmes ; 2006.
32. Strander B., Andersson-Ellstrom A., Milsom I., Sparen P. Long term risk of invasive cancer after treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3: population based cohort study. BMJ. 2007 ; 335: 1077.
33. Karnon J., Peters J., Platt J., Chilcott J., McGoogan E., Brewer N. Liquid-based cytology in cervical screening: an updated rapid and systematic review and economic analysis. Health Technol Assess. 2004 ; 8 (20). iii, 1 - iii, 78.
34. Ronco G., Cuzick J., Pierotti P., et al. Accuracy of liquid based versus conventional cytology. Overall results of new technologies for cervical cancer screening: randomised controlled trial. BMJ. 2007 ; 335 (7609). 28.
35. Metropolis N., Rosenbluth AW, Rosenbluth MN, Teller AH Equation of state calculations by fast computing machines. J Chem Phys. 1953 ; 21 (6). 1087-1092.
36. Diaz-Montes TP, Farinola MA, Zahurak ML, Bristow RE, Rosenthal DL Clinical utility of atypical glandular cells (AGC) classification: cytohistologic comparison and relationship to HPV results. Gynecol Oncol. 2007 ; 104 (2). 366-371.
37. Munoz N., Bosch FX, Castellsague X., et al. Against which human papillomavirus types shall we vaccinate and screen? The international perspective. Int J Cancer. 2004 ; 111 (2). 278-285.
38. Insinga RP, Dasbach EJ, Elbasha EH, Liaw KL, Barr E. Incidence and duration of cervical human papillomavirus 6, 11, 16, and 18 infections in young women: an evaluation from multiple analytic perspectives. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2007 ; 16 (4). 709-715.
39. Van de Velde N., Brisson M., Boily MC Modeling human papillomavirus vaccine effectiveness: quantifying the impact of parameter uncertainty. Am J Epidemiol. 2007 ; 165 (7). 762-775.
40. Schiffman M., Castle PE, Jeronimo J., Rodriguez AC, Wacholder S. Human papillomavirus and cervical cancer. Lancet. 2007 ; 370 (9590). 890-907.
41. Castle PE, Schiffman M., Herrero R., et al. A prospective study of age trends in cervical human papillomavirus acquisition and persistence in Guanacaste, Costa Rica. J Infect Dis. 2005 ; 191 (11). 1808-1816.
42. Sanders GD, Taira AV Cost-effectiveness of a potential vaccine for human papillomavirus. Emerg Infect Dis. 2003 ; 9 (1). 37-48.
43. Goldie SJ, Kohli M., Grima D., et al. Projected clinical benefits and cost-effectiveness of a human papillomavirus 16/18 vaccine. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2004 ; 96 (8). 604-615.
44. Kim JJ, Kuntz KM, Stout NK, et al. Multiparameter calibration of a natural history model of cervical cancer. Am J Epidemiol. 2007 ; 166 (2). 137-150.
45. Cassell JA, Mercer CH, Sutcliffe L., et al. Trends in sexually transmitted infections in general practice 1990-2000: population based study using data from the UK general practice research database. BMJ. 2006 ; 332 (7537). 332-334.