Application of geographically weighted regression technique in spatial analysis of fatal and injury crashes

Journal of Transportation Engineering

Volumn 140, Issue 8, 2014, Pages

  Pirdavani, Ali ^a,b   Bellemans, Tom ^b   Brijs, Tom ^b   Wets, Geert ^b  

^a RESEARCH FOUNDATION FLANDERS FWO   (Belgium)

^b HASSELT UNIVERSITY   (Belgium)

Author keywords

Collisions; Regression models; Spatial analysis; Traffic accidents; Traffic safety

Indexed keywords

FORECASTING; HIGHWAY ACCIDENTS; MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; TRAFFIC CONTROL;

ACTIVITY-BASED TRANSPORTATION MODELS; COLLISIONS; GENERALIZED LINEAR MODEL; GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION; REGRESSION MODEL; SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES; SPATIAL ANALYSIS; TRAFFIC SAFETY;

SPATIAL VARIABLES MEASUREMENT;

ACCIDENT; COLLISION; INJURY; NUMERICAL MODEL; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SPATIAL ANALYSIS; TRANSPORTATION SAFETY;

BELGIUM; FLANDERS;

EID: 84920282482     PISSN: 0733947X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000680     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. Abdel-Aty, M., Siddiqui, C., and Huang, H. (2011). "Integrating trip and roadway characteristics in managing safety at traffic analysis zones." Transportation Research Board (TRB) 90th Annual Meeting, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC.
2. Aguero-Valverde, J., and Jovanis, P. P. (2006). "Spatial analysis of fatal and injury crashes in Pennsylvania." Accid. Anal. Prev., 38(3), 618-625.
3. Aguero-Valverde, J., and Jovanis, P. P. (2008). "Analysis of road crash frequency with spatial models." Transportation Research Record 2061, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC, 55-63.
4. Amoros, E., Martin, J. L., and Laumon, B. (2003). "Comparison of road crashes incidence and severity between some French counties." Accid. Anal. Prev., 35(4), 537-547.
5. An, M., Casper, C., and Wu, W. (2011). "Using travel demand model and zonal safety planning model for safety benefit estimation in project evaluation." Transportation Research Board (TRB) 90th Annual Meeting, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC.
6. Blainey, S. (2010). "Trip end models of local rail demand in England and Wales." J. Transp. Geogr., 18(1), 153-165.
7. Chen, V. Y.-J., and Yang, T.-C. (2012). "SAS macro programs for geographically weighted generalized linear modeling with spatial point data: Applications to health research." Comput. Meth. Programs Biomed., 107(2), 262-273.
8. Chow, L.-F., Zhao, F., Liu, X., Li, M.-T., and Ubaka, I. (2006). "Transit ridership model based on geographically weighted regression." Transportation Research Record 1972, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC, 105-114.
9. Clark, S. D. (2007). "Estimating local car ownership models." J. Transp.Geogr., 15(3), 184-197.
10. Cottrill, C. D., and Thakuriah, P. (Vonu) (2010). "Evaluating pedestrian crashes in areas with high low-income or minority populations." Accid.Anal. Prev., 42(6), 1718-1728.
11. De Guevara, F. L. D., Washington, S., and Oh, J. (2004). "Forecasting crashes at the planning level: Simultaneous negative binomial crash model applied in Tucson, Arizona." Transportation Research Record 1897, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC, 191-199.
12. Delmelle, E. C., and Thill, J.-C. (2008). "Urban bicyclists: Spatial analysis of adult and youth traffic hazard intensity." Transportation Research Record 2074, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC, 31-39.
13. Du, H., and Mulley, C. (2006). "Relationship between transport accessibility and land value: Local model approach with geographically weighted regression." Transportation Research Record 1977, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC, 197-205.
14. Erdogan, S. (2009). "Explorative spatial analysis of traffic accident statistics and road mortality among the provinces of Turkey." J. Saf. Res., 40(5), 341-351.
15. Flahaut, B. (2004). "Impact of infrastructure and local environment on road unsafety: Logistic modeling with spatial autocorrelation." Accid. Anal.Prev., 36(6), 1055-1066.
16. Flahaut, B., Mouchart, M., Martin, E. S., and Thomas, I. (2003). "The local spatial autocorrelation and the kernel method for identifying black zones: A comparative approach." Accid. Anal. Prev., 35(6), 991-1004.
17. Fotheringham, A. S., Brunsdon, C., and Charlton, M. (2002). Geographically weighted regression the analysis of spatially varying relationships, Wiley, West Sussex, England.
18. Geurts, K., Thomas, I., and Wets, G. (2005). "Understanding spatial concentrations of road accidents using frequent item sets." Accid. Anal.Prev., 37(4), 787-799.
19. Guo, F., Wang, X., and Abdel-Aty, M. (2010). "Modeling signalized intersection safety with corridor-level spatial correlations." Accid. Anal.Prev., 42(1), 84-92.
20. Guo, L., Ma, Z., and Zhang, L. (2008). "Comparison of bandwidth selection in application of geographically weighted regression: Acase study." Can. J. For. Res., 38(9), 2526-2534.
21. Hadayeghi, A. (2009). "Use of Advanced techniques to estimate zonal level safety planning models and examine their temporal transferability." Ph.D. thesis, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Univ. of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
22. Hadayeghi, A., Shalaby, A., and Persaud, B. (2003). "Macrolevel accident prediction models for evaluating safety of urban transportation systems." Transportation Research Record 1840, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC, 87-95.
23. Hadayeghi, A., Shalaby, A., and Persaud, B. (2007). "Safety prediction models: Proactive tool for safety evaluation in urban transportation planning applications." Transportation Research Record 2019, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC, 225-236.
24. Hadayeghi, A., Shalaby, A. S., and Persaud, B. N. (2010). "Development of planning level transportation safety tools using geographically weighted Poisson regression." Accid. Anal. Prev., 42(2), 676-688.
25. Huang, H., Abdel-Aty, M., and Darwiche, A. (2010). "County-level crash risk analysis in Florida." Transportation Research Record 2148, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC, 27-37.
26. Janssens, D., Wets, G., Timmermans, H. J. P., and Arentze, T. A. (2007). "Modelling short-term dynamics in activity-travel patterns: Conceptual framework of the FEATHERS model." Proc., 11th World Conf. on Transport Research, Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA.
27. Khan, G., Qin, X., and Noyce, D. (2008). "Spatial analysis of weather crash patterns." J. Transp. Eng., 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(2008)134: 5(191), 191-202.
28. Khondakar, B., Sayed, T., and Lovegrove, G. (2010). "Transferability of community-based collision prediction models for use in road safety planning applications." J. Transp. Eng., 10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000153, 871-880.
29. Kochan, B., Bellemans, T., Janssens, D., and Wets, G. (2008). "Assessing the impact of fuel cost on traffic demand in Flanders using activitybased models." Travel Demand Management (TDM), Vienna, Austria.
30. Kutner, M. H., Nachtsheim, C. J., and Neter, J. (2004). Applied linear regression models, 4th Ed., McGraw-Hill, New York.
31. Kweon, Y., and Lim, I. (2012). "Appropriate regression model types for intersections in safety analyst." J. Transp. Eng., 10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000432, 1250-1258.
32. LaScala, E. A., Gerber, D., and Gruenewald, P. J. (2000). "Demographic and environmental correlates of pedestrian injury collisions: A spatial analysis." Accid. Anal. Prev., 32(5), 651-658.
33. Lee, J., and Wong, D. W. S. (2001). Statistical analysis with ArcView GIS, Wiley, New York.
34. Levine, N., Kim, K. E., and Nitz, L. H. (1995a). "Spatial analysis of Honolulu motor vehicle crashes: I. Spatial patterns." Accid. Anal. Prev., 27(5), 663-674.
35. Levine, N., Kim, K. E., and Nitz, L. H. (1995b). "Spatial analysis of Honolulu motor vehicle crashes: II. Zonal generators." Accid. Anal.Prev., 27(5), 675-685.
36. Li, Z., Lee, S. H., Lee, Y., and Valiou, E. (2011). "Geographically-weighted regression models for improved predictability of urban intersection vehicle crashes." Transportation and Development Institute Congress 2011, ASCE, Reston, VA, 1315-1329.
37. Lord, D., and Mannering, F. (2010). "The statistical analysis of crashfrequency data: A review and assessment of methodological alternatives." Transport. Res. Pol. Pract., 44(5), 291-305.
38. Lovegrove, G., Lim, C., and Sayed, T. (2010). "Community-based, macrolevel collision prediction model use with a regional transportation plan." J. Transp. Eng., 10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000081, 120-128.
39. Lovegrove, G., and Sayed, T. (2007). "Macrolevel collision prediction models to enhance traditional reactive road safety improvement programs." Transportation Research Record 2019, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC, 65-73.
40. Lovegrove, G. R. (2005). Community-based, macro-level collision prediction models, Doctoral thesis, Univ. of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
41. Lovegrove, G. R., and Litman, T. (2008). "Using macro-level collision prediction models to evaluate the road safety effects of mobility management strategies: New empirical tools to promote sustainable development." Transportation Research Board (TRB) 87th Annual Meeting, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC.
42. Lovegrove, G. R., and Sayed, T. (2006). "Macro-level collision prediction models for evaluating neighbourhood traffic safety." Can. J. Civ. Eng., 33(5), 609-621.
43. Moons, E., Brijs, T., and Wets, G. (2008). "Identifying hazardous road locations: Hot spots versus hot zones." Int. Conf. on Computational Science and Its Applications (ICCSA), Univ. of Perugia, Perugia, Italy.
44. Naderan, A., and Shahi, J. (2010). "Aggregate crash prediction models: Introducing crash generation concept." Accid. Anal. Prev., 42(1), 339-346.
45. Nakaya, T., Fotheringham, A. S., Brunsdon, C., and Charlton, M. (2005). "Geographically weighted Poisson regression for disease association mapping." Stat. Med., 24(17), 2695-2717.
46. Noland, R. B., and Oh, L. (2004). "The effect of infrastructure and demographic change on traffic-related fatalities and crashes: A case study of Illinois county-level data." Accid. Anal. Prev., 36(4), 525-532.
47. Noland, R. B., and Quddus, M. A. (2004). "A spatially disaggregate analysis of road casualties in England." Accid. Anal. Prev., 36(6), 973-984.
48. Ossenbruggen, P., Linder, E., and Nguyen, B. (2010). "Detecting unsafe roadways with spatial statistics: point patterns and geostatistical models." J. Transp. Eng., 10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000048, 457-464.
49. Páez, A. (2006). "Exploring contextual variations in land use and transport analysis using a probit model with geographical weights." J. Transp.Geogr., 14(3), 167-176.
50. Pirdavani, A., Brijs, T., Bellemans, T., Kochan, B., and Wets, G. (2012). "Application of different exposure measures in development of planning-level zonal crash prediction models." Transportation Research Record 2280, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC, 145-153.
51. Pirdavani, A., Brijs, T., Bellemans, T., Kochan, B., and Wets, G. (2013). "Evaluating the road safety effects of a fuel cost increase measure by means of zonal crash prediction modeling." Accid. Anal. Prev., 50, 186-195.
52. Quddus, M. A. (2008). "Modelling area-wide count outcomes with spatial correlation and heterogeneity: An analysis of London crash data." Accid. Anal. Prev., 40(4), 1486-1497.
53. R Core Team. (2013). R: A language and environment for statistical computing, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
54. Sadia, R., and Polus, A. (2013). "Interchange complexity model and related safety implications." J. Transp. Eng., 10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000516, 458-466.
55. Siddiqui, C., Abdel-Aty, M., and Choi, K. (2012). "Macroscopic spatial analysis of pedestrian and bicycle crashes." Accid. Anal. Prev., 45, 382-391.
56. Wang, C., Quddus, M. A., and Ison, S. G. (2009). "Impact of traffic congestion on road accidents: A spatial analysis of the M25 motorway in England." Accid. Anal. Prev., 41(4), 798-808.
57. Wang, X., and Abdel-Aty, M. (2006). "Temporal and spatial analyses of rear-end crashes at signalized intersections." Accid. Anal. Prev., 38(6), 1137-1150.
58. Wheeler, D., and Tiefelsdorf, M. (2005). "Multicollinearity and correlation among local regression coefficients in geographically weighted regression." J. Geogr. Syst., 7(2), 161-187.
59. Zhao, F., and Park, N. (2004). "Using geographically weighted regression models to estimate annual average daily traffic." Transportation Research Record 1879, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC, 99-107.