Water vapor-forced greenhouse warming over the Sahara desert and the recent recovery from the Sahelian drought

Journal of Climate

Volumn 28, Issue 1, 2015, Pages 108-123

  Evan, Amato T ^a,b   Flamant, Cyrille ^a   Lavaysse, Christophe ^c   Kocha, Cécile ^a   Saci, Azzedine ^d  

^a SERVICE D AÉRONOMIE DU CNRS   (France)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^c NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

^d Centre Alger Office National de la Météorologie   (Algeria)

Author keywords

Africa; Climate variability; Monsoons; Water vapor

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMICS; BUDGET CONTROL; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELS; DROUGHT; GREENHOUSES; OCEANOGRAPHY; RAIN; RECOVERY;

AFRICA; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; GREENHOUSE WARMING; MONSOONS; STATE OF THE ART; TROPICAL ATLANTIC; VAPOR TEMPERATURE; WEST AFRICAN MONSOON;

WATER VAPOR;

CLIMATE FEEDBACK; CLIMATE MODELING; DROUGHT; GLOBAL WARMING; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; MONSOON; RAINFALL; WATER VAPOR;

SAHARA; SAHEL [SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA];

EID: 84920276735     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00039.1     Document Type: Article

References (48)

1. Biasutti, M., 2013: Forced Sahel rainfall trends in the CMIP5 archive. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 1613-1623, doi:10.1002/ jgrd.50206.
2. Biasutti, M., A. H. Sobel, and S. J. Camargo, 2009: The role of the Sahara low in summertime Sahel rainfall variability and change in the CMIP3 models. J. Climate, 22, 5755-5771, doi:10.1175/ 2009JCLI2969.1.
3. Cassou, C., C. Deser, L. Terray, J. W. Hurrell, and M. Drévillon, 2004: Summer sea surface temperature conditions in the North Atlantic and their impact upon the atmospheric circulation in early winter. J. Climate, 17, 3349-3363, doi:10.1175/ 1520-0442(2004)017,3349:SSSTCI.2.0.CO;2.
4. Chauvin, F., R. Roehrig, and J.-P. Lafore, 2010: Intraseasonal variability of the Saharan heat low and its link withmidlatitudes. J. Climate, 23, 2544-2561, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3093.1.
5. Chiang, J. C. H., and D. J. Vimont, 2004: Analogous Pacific and Atlantic meridional modes of tropical atmosphere-ocean variability. J. Climate, 17, 4143-4158, doi:10.1175/JCLI4953.1.
6. Collins, J. M., 2011: Temperature variability over Africa. J. Climate, 24, 3649-3666, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI3753.1.
7. de Coëtlogon, G., S. Janicot, and A. Lazar, 2010: Intraseasonal variability of the ocean-atmosphere coupling in the Gulf of Guinea during boreal spring and summer. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 426-441, doi:10.1002/qj.554.
8. Dee, D. P., et al 2011: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553-597, doi:10.1002/qj.828.
9. Diatta, S., and A. H. Fink, 2014: Statistical relationship between remote climate indices and West African monsoon variability. Int. J. Climatol., 34, 3348-3367, doi:10.1002/joc.3912.
10. Ellingson, R. G., J. Ellis, and S. Fels, 1991: The intercomparison of radiation codes used in climate models: Long wave results. J. Geophys. Res., 96, 8929-8953, doi:10.1029/90JD01450.
11. Evan, A. T., and S. Mukhopadhyay, 2010: African dust over the northern tropical Atlantic: 1955-2008. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 49, 2213-2229, doi:10.1175/2010JAMC2485.1.
12. Evan, A. T., C. Flamant, S. Fiedler, and O. Doherty, 2014: An analysis of aeolian dust in climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5996- 6001, doi:10.1002/2014GL060545.
13. Folland, C. K., T. N. Palmer, and D. E. Parker, 1986: Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea temperatures, 1901-85. Nature, 320, 602- 607, doi:10.1038/320602a0.
14. Giannini, A., R. Saravanan, and P. Chang, 2003: Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales. Science, 302, 1027-1030, doi:10.1126/science.1089357.
15. Giannini, A., S. Salack, T. Lodoun, A. Ali, A. T. Gaye, and O. Ndiaye, 2013: A unifying view of climate change in the Sahel linking intra-seasonal, interannual and longer time scales. Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 024010, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024010.
16. Harris, I., P. D. Jones, T. J. Osborn, and D. H. Lister, 2014: Updated high-resolution grids ofmonthly climatic observations- The CRU TS3.10 Dataset. Int. J. Climatol., 34, 623-642, doi:10.1002/joc.3711.
17. Hastenrath, S., and L. Heller, 1977: Dynamics of climatic hazards in Northeast Brazil. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 103, 77-92, doi:10.1002/qj.49710343505.
18. Haywood, J. M., R. P. Allan, I. Culverwell, T. Slingo, S. Milton, J. Edwards, and N. Clerbaux, 2005: Can desert dust explain the outgoing longwave radiation anomaly over the Sahara during July 2003? J. Geophys. Res., 110, D05105, doi:10.1029/ 2004JD005232.
19. Held, I. M., T. L. Delworth, J. Lu, K. L. Findell, and T. R. Knutson, 2005: Simulation of Sahel drought in the 20th and 21st centuries. Proc.Natl. Acad. Sci.USA, 102, 17 891-17 896, doi:10.1073/ pnas.0509057102.
20. Huffman, G. J., D. T. Bolvin, and R. F. Adler, 2012: GPCP version 2.2 SG combined precipitation data set. World Data Center for Meteorology, National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, digital media.
21. Janicot, S., A. Harzallah, B. Fontaine, and V. Moron, 1998: West African monsoon dynamics and eastern equatorial Atlantic and Pacific SST anomalies (1970-88). J. Climate, 11, 1874- 1882, doi:10.1175/1520-0442-11.8.1874.
22. Janicot, S., S. Trzaska, and I. Poccard, 2001: Summer Sahel-ENSO teleconnection and decadal time scale SST variations. Climate Dyn., 18, 303-320, doi:10.1007/s003820100172.
23. Janowiak, J. E., 1988: An investigation of interannual rainfall variability in Africa. J. Climate, 1, 240-255, doi:10.1175/ 1520-0442(1988)001,0240:AIOIRV.2.0.CO;2.
24. Kanamitsu, M., W. Ebisuzaki, J. Woollen, S.-K. Yang, J. J. Hnilo, M. Fiorino, and G. L. Potter, 2002: NCEP-DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 1631-1643, doi:10.1175/BAMS-83-11-1631.
25. Key, J. R., and A. J. Schweiger, 1998: Tools for atmospheric radiative transfer: Streamer and FluxNet. Comput. Geosci., 24, 443-451, doi:10.1016/S0098-3004(97)00130-1.
26. Lavaysse, C., C. Flamant, S. Janicot, D. J. Parker, J.-P. Lafore, B. Sultan, and J. Pelon, 2009: Seasonal evolution of the West African heat low: A climatological perspective. Climate Dyn., 33, 313-330, doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0553-4.
27. Lavaysse, C., C. Flamant, S. Janicot, 2010: Regional-scale convection patterns during strong and weak phases of the Saharan heat low. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 11, 255-264, doi:10.1002/asl.284.
28. Lavaysse, C., J.-P. Chaboureau, and C. Flamant, 2011: Dust impact on the West African heat low in summertime. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 1227-1240, doi:10.1002/qj.844.
29. Lebel, T., and A. Ali, 2009: Recent trends in the Central and Western Sahel rainfall regime (1990-2007). J. Hydrol., 375, 52-64, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.11.030.
30. Martin, E. R., and C. D. Thorncroft, 2014: The impact of theAMO on the West African monsoon annual cycle. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140, 31-46, doi:10.1002/qj.2107.
31. Martin, E. R., and C. D. Thorncroft, and B. B. Booth, 2014: The multidecadal Atlantic SST- Sahel rainfall teleconnection in CMIP5 simulations. J. Climate, 27, 784-805, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00242.1.
32. Nicholson, S. E., 1994: Desertification. Encyclopedia of Climate and Weather, S. H. Schneider, Ed., Oxford University Press, 239-242.
33. Peyrillé, P., and J.-P. Lafore, 2007: An idealized two-dimensional framework to study the West African monsoon. Part II: Largescale advection and the diurnal cycle. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 2783- 2803, doi:10.1175/JAS4052.1.
34. Pu, B., and K. H. Cook, 2012: Role of the West African westerly jet in Sahel rainfall variations. J. Climate, 25, 2880-2896, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00394.1.
35. Rácz, Z., andR.K. Smith, 1999: The dynamics of heat lows. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 225-252, doi:10.1002/qj.49712555313.
36. Rienecker, M. M., and Coauthors, 2011: MERRA: NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications. J. Climate, 24, 3624-3648, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00015.1.
37. Roehrig, R., F. Chauvin, and J.-P. Lafore, 2011: 10-25-day intraseasonal variability of convection over the Sahel: Arole of the Saharan heat low and midlatitudes. J. Climate, 24, 5863-5878, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI3960.1.
38. Sultan,B., and S. Janicot, 2003: TheWestAfricanmonsoon dynamics. Part II: The "preonset"and "onset"of the summer monsoon. J. Climate, 16, 3407-3427, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016,3407: TWAMDP.2.0.CO;2.
39. Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485-498, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.
40. Thorncroft, C. D., and M. Blackburn, 1999: Maintenance of the African easterly jet. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 763-786, doi:10.1002/qj.49712555502.
41. Thorncroft, C. D., H. Nguyen, C. Zhang, and P. Peyrillé, 2011: Annual cycle of the West African monsoon: Regional circulations and associated water vapour transport. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 129-147, doi:10.1002/qj.728.
42. Tokinaga, H., and S.-P. Xie, 2011: Weakening of the equatorial Atlantic cold tongue over the past six decades. Nat. Geosci., 4, 222-226, doi:10.1038/ngeo1078.
43. Trenberth, K. E., and C. J. Guillemot, 1995: Evaluation of the global atmospheric moisture budget as seen from analyses. J. Climate, 8, 2255-2272, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008,2255: EOTGAM.2.0.CO;2.
44. Vicente-Serrano, S. M., J. I. López-Moreno, L. Gimeno, R. Nieto, E. Morán-Tejeda, J. Lorenzo-Lacruz, S. Beguería, and C. Azorin-Molina, 2011:Amultiscalar global evaluation of the impact of ENSO on droughts. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D20109, doi:10.1029/2011JD016039.
45. Washington, R., et al, 2012: Fennec-The Saharan Climate System. CLIVAR Exchanges, No. 60, International CLIVAR Project Office, Southampton, United Kingdom, 31-32.
46. Xie, P., and P. A. Arkin, 1997: Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2539-2558, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078,2539: GPAYMA.2.0.CO;2.
47. Xue, Y., et al, 2010: Intercomparison and analyses of the climatology of the West African Monsoon in the West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation project (WAMME) first model intercomparison experiment. Climate Dyn., 35, 3-27, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0778-2.
48. Yoshioka, M., N.M. Mahowald, A. J. Conley, W. D. Collins, D.W. Fillmore, C. S. Zender, and D. B. Coleman, 2007: Impact of desert dust radiative forcing on Sahel precipitation: Relative importance of dust compared to sea surface temperature variations, vegetation changes, and greenhouse gas warming. J. Climate, 20, 1445-1467, doi:10.1175/JCLI4056.1.