Prolonged instability prior to a regime shift

PLoS ONE

Volumn 9, Issue 10, 2014, Pages

  Spanbauer, Trisha L ^a   Allen, Craig R ^b   Angeler, David G ^c   Eason, Tarsha ^d   Fritz, Sherilyn C ^a   Garmestani, Ahjond S ^d   Nash, Kirsty L ^e   Stone, Jeffery R ^f  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA LINCOLN   (United States)

^c SWEDISH UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES   (Sweden)

^d U S ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY   (United States)

^e JAMES COOK UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^f INDIANA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; INFORMATION PROCESSING; MODEL; SPECIES; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS; LAKE;

CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; LAKES;

EID: 84919757130     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0108936     Document Type: Article

References (42)

1. Scheffer M, Carpenter SR, Foley JA, Folke C, Walker B (2001) Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 413: 591-596.
2. Scheffer M, Carpenter SR (2003) Catastrophic regime shifts in ecosystems: linking theory to observation. Trends Ecol Evol 18: 648-656.
3. Folke C, Carpenter S, Walker B, Scheffer M, Elmqvist T, et al. (2004) Regime shifts, resilience, and biodiversity in ecosystem management. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst. 35: 557-581.
4. McCabe GJ, Palecki MA, Betancourt JL (2004) Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 101: 4136-4141.
5. Pederson GT, Fagre DB, Gray ST, Graumlich LJ (2004) Decadal-scale climate drivers for glacial dynamics in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. Geophys Res Lett 31: doi:10.1029/2004GL019770.
6. Stone JR, Fritz SC (2004) Three-dimensional modeling of lacustrine diatom habitat areas: Improving paleolimnological interpretation of planktic:benthic ratios. Limnol Oceanogr 49: 1540-1548.
7. Scheffer M, Carpenter SR, Lenton TM, Bascompte J, Brock W, et al. (2012) Anticipating critical transitions. Science 338: 344-348.
8. Eason T, Garmestani A, Cabezas H (2014) Managing for resilience: early detection of catastrophic shifts in complex systems. Clean Techn Environl Policy, 16: 773-783.
9. Angeler DG, Viedma O, Moreno J (2009) Statistical performance and information content of time lag analysis and redundancy analysis in time series modeling. Ecology 90: 3245-3257.
10. Carpenter SR, Brock WA (2006) Rising variance: a leading indicator of ecological transition. Ecol Lett 9: 311-318.
11. Dakos V, Scheffer M, Van Nes E, Brovkin V, Petoukhov V, et al. (2008) Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105: 14308-14312.
12. Drake JM, Griffen BD (2010) Early warning signals of extinction in deteriorating environments. Nature 467: 456-459.
13. Dai L, Vorselen D, Korolev KS, Gore J (2012) Generic indicators for loss of resilience before a tipping point leading to population collapse. Science 336: 1175-1177.
14. Hastings A, Wysham DB (2010) Regime shifts in ecological systems can occur with no warning. Ecol Lett 13: 464-472.
15. Dakos V, Carpenter SR, Brock WA, Ellison AM, Guttal V, et al. (2012) Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data. PLoS ONE 7: e41010. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0041010.
16. Biggs R, Carpenter SR, Brock WA (2009) Turning back from the brink: detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106: 826-831.
17. Mayer AL, Pawlowski CW, Cabezas H (2006) Fisher information and dynamic regime changes in ecological systems. Ecol Model 195: 72-82.
18. Fath BD, Cabezas H, Pawlowski CW (2003) Regime changes in ecological systems: an information theory approach. J Theor Biol 222: 517-530.
19. Fath BD, Cabezas H (2004) Exergy and Fisher information as ecological indices. Ecol Model 174: 25-35.
20. Cabezas H, Pawlowski CW, Mayer AL, Hoagland NT (2005) Sustainable systems theory: ecological and other aspects. J Clean Prod 13: 455-467.
21. Rico-Ramirez V, Reyes-Mendoza PA, Ortiz-Cruz JA (2010) Fisher Information on the performance of dynamic systems. Ind Eng Chem Res 49: 1812-1821.
22. Shastri Y, Diwekar U, Cabezas H, Williamson J (2008) Is sustainability achievable? Exploring the limits of sustainability with model systems. Environ Sci Technol 42: 6710-6716.
23. Karunanithi AT, Cabezas H, Frieden BR, Pawlowski CW (2008) Detection and Assessment of ecosystem regime shifts from Fisher information. Ecol Soc 13: 22 URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art22/.
24. Eason T, Cabezas H (2012) Evaluating the sustainability of a regional system using Fisher information, San Luis Basin, Colorado. J Environ Manage 94: 41-49.
25. Eason T, Garmestani AS (2012) Cross-scale dynamics of a regional urban system through time. Region et Developpement 36: 55-77.
26. Stone JR, Fritz SC (2006) Multidecadal drought and Holocene climate instability in the Rocky Mountains. Geology 34: 409-412.
27. Williams JW, Blois JL, Shuman BN (2011) Extrinsic and intrinsic forcing of abrupt ecological change: case studies from the late Quaternary. J Ecology 99: 664-667.
28. Booth RK, Jackson ST, Forman SL, Kutzbach JE, Bettis III EA, et al. (2005) A severe centennial-scale drought in mid-continental North America 4200 years ago and apparent global linkages. The Holocene 15: 321-328.
29. Bracht-Flyr B, Fritz SC (2012) Synchronous climatic change inferred from diatom records in four western Montana lakes in the U.S. Rocky Mountains. Quat Res 77: 456-467.
30. Stevens LR, Stone JR, Campbell J, Fritz SC (2006) A 2200-yr record of hydrologic variability from Foy Lake, Montana, USA, inferred from diatom and geochemical data. Quat Res 65: 264-274.
31. Frank KT, Petrie B, Fisher JAD, Leggett WC (2011) Transient dynamics of an altered large marine ecosystem. Nature 477: 86-89.
32. Krauss J, Bommarco R, Guardiola M, Heikkinen RK, Helm A, et al. (2010) Habitat fragmentation causes immediate and time delayed biodiversity loss at different trophic levels. Ecol Lett 13: 597-605.
33. Menéndez R, González Megías A, Hill JK, Braschler B, Willis SC, et al. (2006) Species richness changes lag behind climate change. Proc R Soc London Ser B 273: 1465-1470.
34. Hughes TP, Linares C, Dakos V, van de Leemput IA, van Nes EH (2013) Living dangerously on borrowed time during slow, unrecognized regime shifts. Trends Ecol Evol 28: 149-155.
35. Brock WA, Carpenter SR (2006) Variance as a leading indicator of regime shift in ecosystem services. Ecol Soc 11: 9 URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss2/art9.
36. van Nes EH, Scheffer M (2007) Slow recovery from perturbations as a generic indicator of a nearby catastrophic shift. Am Nat 169: 738-747.
37. Scheffer M, Bascompte J, Brock W, Brovkin V, Carpenter S, et al. (2009) Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature 461: 53-59.
38. Mayer AL, Pawlowski CW, Fath BD, Cabezas H (2007) In: Frieden BR, Gatenby RA, editors. Exploratory Data Analysis Using Fisher Information. London: Springer-Verlag. pp. 217-244.
39. Cabezas H, Eason T (2010) Fisher information and order. In: Heberling MT, Hopton ME, editors. San Luis Basin Sustainability Metrics Project: A Methodology for Assessing Regional Sustainability. US EPA Report: EPA/600/R-10/182. pp. 163-222.
40. Borcard D, Legendre P (2002) All-scale spatial analysis of ecological data by means of principal coordinates of neighbour matrices. Ecol Model 153: 51-68.
41. Borcard D, Legendre P, Avois-Jacquet C, Tuomisto H (2004) Dissecting the spatial structure of ecological data at multiple scales. Ecology 85: 1826-1832.
42. Legendre P, Gallagher ED (2001) Ecologically meaningful transformations for ordination of species data. Oecologia 129: 271-280.