Combined impacts of future climate and land use changes on discharge, nitrogen and phosphorus loads for a Canadian river basin

Journal of Environmental Management

Volumn 151, Issue , 2015, Pages 76-86

  El Khoury, A ^a   Seidou, O ^a   Lapen, D R L ^b   Que, Z ^a   Mohammadian, M ^a   Sunohara, M ^b   Bahram, D ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OTTAWA   (Canada)

^b AGRICULTURE AND AGRI FOOD CANADA   (Canada)

Author keywords

Climate change; Land use projections; Nitrogen; Phosphorus; SWAT

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELS; LAND USE; NEAREST NEIGHBOR SEARCH; NITROGEN; PHOSPHORUS; STREAM FLOW; WATER QUALITY; WATERSHEDS;

FUTURE CLIMATE; LAND USE PROJECTION; LANDUSE CHANGE; NITROGEN AND PHOSPHORUS; NITROGEN LOADS; ORGANIC NITROGEN; PHOSPHORUS LOADS; RIVER BASINS; SOIL AND WATER ASSESSMENT TOOLS; TREND SIMULATION;

SWAT;

NITRITE; NITROGEN DERIVATIVE; ORGANIC NITROGEN; ORGANOPHOSPHORUS COMPOUND; NITROGEN; PHOSPHORUS; SOIL POLLUTANT; WATER POLLUTANT;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; DISCHARGE; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; LAND USE CHANGE; NITROGEN; PHOSPHORUS; REGIONAL CLIMATE; RIVER BASIN; STREAMFLOW; WATER QUALITY; WATERSHED;

ARTICLE; CALIBRATION; CANADA; CLIMATE; CLIMATE CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT; ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS; LAND USE; RIVER BASIN; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS; VALIDATION PROCESS; WATER CYCLE; WATER QUALITY; WATER QUANTITY; WATERSHED; CHEMISTRY; FORECASTING; HUMAN; RIVER; SOIL POLLUTANT; THEORETICAL MODEL; TRENDS; URBANIZATION; WATER POLLUTANT;

CANADA; CLIMATE CHANGE; FORECASTING; HUMANS; MODELS, THEORETICAL; NITROGEN; PHOSPHORUS; RIVERS; SOIL POLLUTANTS; URBANIZATION; WATER POLLUTANTS, CHEMICAL; WATER QUALITY;

EID: 84919361219     PISSN: 03014797     EISSN: 10958630     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.12.012     Document Type: Article

References (35)

1. Abbaspour K.C., Vejdani M., Haghighat S. SWAT-CUP calibration and uncertainty programs for SWAT. Proc.Intl. Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM'07) 2007, 1603-1609. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, Melbourne, Australia. L. Oxley, D. Kulasiri (Eds.).
2. Arnold J.G., Srinivasan R., Muttiah R.S., Williams J.R. Large area hydrologic modelling and assessment part I; model development. J.Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 1998, 34:73-89.
3. Barlage M.J., Richards P.L., Sousounis P.J., Brenner A.J. Impacts of climate change and land use change on runoff from a great lakes watershed. J.Gt. Lakes. Res. 2002, 28:568-582.
4. Bingner R.L., Theurer F.D., Yuan Y. AnnAGNPS Technical Processes 2007, Available at:, (accessed 15.06.09.). ftp://199.133.90.201/pub/outgoing/AGNPS/AGNPS_Web_Files/pdf_files/AnnAGNPS_Technical_Documentation.pdf.
5. Burger G., Murdock T.Q., Werner A.T., Sobie S.R., Cannon A.J. Downscaling extremes: an intercomparison of multiple statistical methods for present climate. J.Clim. 2012, 25:4366-4388.
6. Burger G., Sobie S.R., Cannon A.J., Werner A.T., Murdock T.Q. Downscaling extremes: an intercomparison of multiple methods for future climate. J.Clim. 2013, 26:3429-3449.
7. CH2MHILL Eastern Ontario Water Resources Management Study Final Report.CH2MHILL 2001.
8. Chen H., Xu C.-Y., Guo S. Comparison and evaluation of multiple GCMs, statistical downscaling and hydrological models in the study of climate change impacts on runoff. J.Hydrol. 2012, 434-435:36-45.
9. Chiew F., Kirono D., Kent D., Frost A., Charles S., Timbal B., Nguyen K., Fu G. Comparison of runoff modelled using rainfall from different downscaling methods for historical and future climates. J.Hydrol. 2010, 387:10-23.
10. Dibike Y.B., Coulibaly P. Hydrologic impact of climate change in the Saguenay watershed: comparison of downscaling methods and hydrologic models. J.Hydrol. 2005, 307:145-163.
11. Dunn S., Brown I., Sample J., Post H. Relationships between climate, water resources, land use and diffuse pollution and the significance of uncertainty in climate change. J.Hydrol. 2012, 434-435:19-35.
12. El-Khoury A., Seidou O., Lapen D.R.L., Sunohara M., Que Z., Mohammadian M., Bahram D. Prediction of land-use conversions for use in watershed-scale hydrological modeling: a Canadian case study. Can. Geogr. 2014, (published online 22/08/2014). 10.1111/cag.1210.
13. Environment Canada Archived Hydrometric Data 2008, Environment Canada. http://www.wsc.ec.gc.ca/applications/H2O/index-fra.cfm.
14. Felzer B.S. Carbon, nitrogen, and water response to climate and land use changes in Pennsylvania during the 20th and 21st centuries. Ecol. Model. 2012, 240:49-63.
15. Gachon P., Radojevic M., Pison E., Saad C., Lefaivre L. DAI (Data Access Integration) Atlas: Climatological Maps from the Canadian RCM & the Canadian Global Climate Model Simulations over North America for the Current (1961-1990) & Future (2041-2070) Periods 2009, Retrieved from:http://loki.qc.ec.gc.ca/DAI/doc/catalogue/DAI/s/do5(A)TLAS/s/do5(V)1.0/s/do5(F)EB26th2009.pdf.
16. Jakob Themeßl M., Gobiet A., Leuprecht A. Empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction of daily precipitation from regional climate models. Int. J. Climatol. 2011, 31:1530-1544.
17. Kalnay E., Kanamitsu M., Kistler R., Collins W., Deaven D., Gandin L., Iredell M., Saha S., White G., Woollen J., Zhu Y., Leetmaa A., Reynold R. The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year reanalysis project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 1996, 77:437-471. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077%3c0437:TNYRP%3e2.0.CO;2.
18. Kim J., Choi J., Choi C., Park S. Impacts of changes in climate and land use/land cover under IPCC RCP scenarios on streamflow in the Hoeya River basin. Korea. Sci. Total Environ. 2013, 452-453:181-195.
19. Legesse D., Vallet-Coulomb C., Gasse F. Hydrological response of a catchment to climate and land use changes in tropical Africa: case study south central Ethiopia. J.Hydrol. 2003, 275:67-85.
20. Liu A., Tong S., Goodrich J. Land use as a mitigation strategy for the water-quality impacts of global warming: a scenario analysis on two watersheds in the Ohio River basin. Environ. Eng. Policy 2000, 2:65-76.
21. Liu J., Zhang L., Zhang Y., Hong H., Deng H. Validation of an Agricultural Non-point Source (AGNPS) pollution model for a catchment in the Jiulong River watershed, China. J.Environ. Sci. 2008, 20:599-606.
22. Maraun D., Wetterhall F., Ireson A.M., Chandler R.E., Kendon E.J., Widmann M., Brienen S., Rust H.W., Sauter T., Themeßl M., Venema V.K.C., Chun K.P., Goodess C.M., Jones R.G., Onof C., Vrac M., Thiele-Eich I. Precipitation downscaling under climate change: recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user. Rev. Geophys. 2010, 48. http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2009RG000314, 10.1029/2009RG000314.
23. Ministry of the Environment Provincial (Stream) Water Quality Network 2009, Ministry of the Environment, Government of Ontario, Toronto, Ontario, Accessible at:. https://www.ontario.ca/environment-and-energy/provincial-stream-water-quality-monitoring-network-pwqmn-data.
24. Philips S., Laanbroek H.J., Verstraete W. Origin, causes and effects of increased nitrite concentrations in aquatic environments. Rev. Environ. Sci. Biotechnol. 2002, 1:115-141.
25. Que Z. Evaluation of the Impact of Controlled Tile Drainage on Surface Water Quality in the South Nation River Watershed 2011, (Unpublished master thesis), University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada.
26. Reuter H.I., Nelson A., Jarvis A. An evaluation of void filling interpolation methods for SRTM data. Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci. 2007, 21(9):983-1008.
27. Sala O.E. Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science 2000, 287:1770-1774.
28. Sample J., Dunn S., Brown I., Towers W. Scotland's Water Resources: Impacts of Land Use and Climate 2012.
29. Semenov M.A., Barrow E.M. LARS-WG: a stochastic weather generator for use in climate impact studies 2002, Rothamsted Res., Retrieved June 15, 2013 from:. http://www.rothamsted.ac.uk/mas-models/download/LARSWG-Manual.pdf.
30. Seung-Hwan Y., Jin-Yong C., Sang-Hyun L., Yun-Gyeong O., Dong Koun Y. Climate change impacts on water storage requirements of an agricultural reservoir considering changes in land use and rice growing season in Korea. Agric. Water Manag. 2013, 117:43-54.
31. Soil Landscapes of Canada Working Group Soil Landscapes of Canada Version 3.2. (Digital Map and Database at 1:1 Million Scale) 2010, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa, Ontario.
32. Tong S.T., Sun Y., Ranatunga T., He J., Yang Y.J. Predicting plausible impacts of sets of climate and land use change scenarios on water resources. Appl. Geogr. 2012, 32:477-489.
33. Tu J. Combined impact of climate and land use changes on streamflow and water quality in Eastern Massachusetts, USA. J.Hydrol. 2009, 379:268-283.
34. Wilby R.L., Dawson C.W., Barrow E.M. SDSM - a decision support tool for the assessment of regional climate change impacts. Environ. Model. Softw. 2002, 17:145-157.
35. Wilson C.O., Weng Q. Simulating the impacts of future land use and climate changes on surface water quality in the Des Plaines River watershed, Chicago metropolitan statistical area. Ill. Sci. Total Environ. 2011, 409:4387-4405.