Predicting plausible impacts of sets of climate and land use change scenarios on water resources

Applied Geography

Volumn 32, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 477-489

  Tong, Susanna T Y ^a   Sun, Yu ^a   Ranatunga, Thushara ^a   He, Jie ^a   Yang, Y Jeffrey ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CINCINNATI   (United States)

^b U S ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY   (United States)

Author keywords

CA Markov; Climate change; HSPF; Hydrologic regime; Land use change; Water quality

Indexed keywords

CELLULAR AUTOMATON; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; GIS; HYDROLOGICAL REGIME; LAND USE CHANGE; NUTRIENT CYCLING; PREDICTION; STREAMFLOW; WATER QUALITY; WATER RESOURCE; WATERSHED;

LITTLE MIAMI RIVER; OHIO; UNITED STATES;

EID: 79960559302     PISSN: 01436228     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2011.06.014     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. de Almeida C.M., Batty M., Monteiro A.M.V., Camara G., Soares-Filho B.S., Cerqueira G.G., et al. Stochastic cellular automata modeling of urban land use dynamics: empirical development and estimation. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 2003, 27:481-509.
2. Anderson J.R., Hardy E.E., Roach J.T., Witmer R.E. A land use and land cover classification system for use with remote sensor data 1976, Geological Survey Professional Paper 964, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.
3. Bicknell B.R., Donigian A.S., Jobes T.H., Chinnaswamy R. Modeling nitrogen cycling and export in forested watershed using HSPF 1996, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Athens, GA.
4. Bicknell B.R., Imhoff J., Kittle J., Jobes T., Donigian A.S. Hydrological simulation program - Fortran user's manual 2000, Release 12, Office of Water, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C.
5. Bronstert A., Niehoff D., Bürger G. Effects of climate and land-use change on storm runoff generation: present knowledge and modeling capabilities. Hydrological Processes 2002, 16(2):509-529.
6. Chun K.C., Chang R.W., Williams G.P., Chang Y.S., Tomasko D., LaGory K., et al. Water quality issues in the Nakdong River Basin in the Republic of Korea. Environmental Engineering and Policy 2001, 2:131-143.
7. Cryer S.A., Fouch M.A., Peacock A.L., Havens P.L. Characterizing agrochemical patterns and effective BMPs for surface waters using mechanistic modeling and GIS. Environmental Modeling and Assessment 2001, 6:195-208.
8. Dagnachew L., Vallet-Coulomb C., Gasse F. Hydrological response of a catchment to climate and land use changes in tropical Africa: case study of south central Ethiopia. Journal of Hydrology 2003, 275(1-2):67-85.
9. Debrewer L.M., Rowe G.I., Reutter D.C., Moore R.C., Hambrook J.A., Baker N.T. Environmental setting and effects on water quality in the Great and Little Miami River Basins, Ohio and Indiana 2000, Water Resources Investigations Report 99-4201. National Water-Quality Assessment Program, U.S. Geological Survey, Columbus, Ohio.
10. Donigian A.S., Crawford N.H. Modeling nonpoint pollution from land surfaces 1976, EPA-600/3-76-083, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Athens, GA.
11. Donigian A.S., Huber W.C. Modeling of nonpoint source water quality in urban and non-urban areas 1991, EPA-600/3-9/039, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Athens, GA.
12. An innovative approach to identifying key priorities for improving water quality in the East Fork Little Miami River: A national demonstration project for watershed management 2007, East Fork LMR Collaborative, Final Grant Report, Clermont Office of Environmental Quality, Ohio.
13. Gleick P.H. The development and testing of a water balance model for climate impact assessment: modeling the Sacramento Basin. Water Resources Research 1987, 23(6):1049-1061.
14. Guo S., Wang J., Xiong L., Ying A., Li D. A macro-scale and semi-distributed monthly water balance model to predict climate change impacts in China. Journal of Hydrology 2002, 268(1-4):1-15.
15. Hotchkiss R.H., Jorgensen S.F., Stone M.C., Fontaine T.A. Regulated river modeling for climate change impact assessment: the Missouri River. Journal of American Water Resources Association 2000, 36(2):375-386.
16. IDRISI 2008, IDRISI, Clark Lab, Clark University, Accessed 02.11.09. http://www.clarklabs.org.
17. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, 2007 2008, IPCC, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
18. Janosy S.D. Trace elements and synthetic organic compounds in streambed sediment and fish tissue in the Great and Little Miami River Basins, Ohio and Indiana, 1990-98 2003, National Water-Quality Assessment Program, Water Resources Investigations Report 02-4305, U.S. Geological Survey, Columbus, Ohio.
19. Jones J.B. Benthic organic matter storage in streams: influence of detrital import and export, retention mechanisms, and climate. Journal of the North American Benthological Society 1997, 16(1):109-119.
20. Karl T.R., Knight R.W., Easterling D.R., Quayle R.Q. Indices of climate change for the United States. Bulletin American Meteorological Society 1996, 33:279-292.
21. Lerch N.K., Hale W.F., Milliron E.L. Soil survey of Clermont County 1975, Soil Conservation Services, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Ohio.
22. Liu Z., Tong S.T.Y. Using HSPF to model the hydrologic and water quality impacts of riparian land-use change in a small watershed. Journal of Environmental Informatics 2011, 17(1):1-14.
23. Mailhot A., Duchesne S., Caya D., Talbot G. Assessment of future change in intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for Southern Quebec using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). Journal of Hydrology 2007, 347:197-210.
24. Mimikou M., Kouvopolos Y., Cavadalis G., Vayianos N. Regional hydrological effects of climate change. Journal of Hydrology 1991, 123:119-146.
25. Muzik I. A first-order analysis of the climate change effect on flood frequencies in a subalpine watershed by means of a hydrological rainfall-runoff model. Journal of Hydrology 2002, 267:65-73.
26. Nash J.E., Sutcliffe J.V. River flow forecasting through conceptual models. Part 1: a discussion of principles. Journal of Hydrology 1970, 10(3):282-290.
27. NCSL, CIER (2008). Ohio: assessing the costs of climate change, economic and environmental costs of climate change reports. Paper presented at the National Conference of State Legislatures and the Center for Integrative Environmental Research, University of Maryland. Accessed 01.05.11. http://www.ncsl.org/IssuesResearch/EnvironmentandNaturalResources/ClimateChangePublications/tabid/13242/Default.aspx.
28. Ng H.Y.F., Marsalek J. Sensitivity of streamflow simulation to changes in climatic inputs. Nordic Hydrology 1992, 23:257-272.
29. Reports in population and housing - population estimates 2005, Ohio Department of Development, Annual population estimates for Ohio counties: 1960-2009. Census and preliminary estimates of the intercensal population of Ohio and Counties, 2000-2009, Accessed 18.08.08. http://development.ohio.gov/research/Reports_In_Population_and_Housing-Population_estimates.htm.
30. Population and housing: Ohio's population 2010, Ohio Department of Development, Accessed 6 October 2010. http://development.ohio.gov/research/files/p0006.pdf.
31. Water inventory of the Little Miami and Mill Creek Basins and adjacent Ohio River tributaries 1964, Ohio DNR, Ohio Water Plan Inventory Report 18, Ohio Department of Natural Resources.
32. Ohio water resource inventory, executive summary: Summary, conclusions, and recommendations 1996, Ohio EPA, Division of Surface Water and Monitoring Assessment Section. Ohio Environmental Protection Agency, Columbus, Ohio.
33. Biological and water quality study of the Little Miami River Basin, 1998 2000, Ohio EPA, OEPA Technical Report Number MAS/1999-12-3, Ohio Environmental Protection Agency, Columbus, Ohio.
34. Pielke R., Prins G., Rayner S., Sarewitz D. Lifting the taboo on adaptation. Nature 2007, 445:597-598.
35. Proctor, W. (2001). Multi-criteria analysis and environmental decision-making: a case study of Australia's forests. PhD Thesis, Canberra: Australian National University.
36. Schneider W.J. Relation of geology of streamflow in the Upper Little Miami Basin. The Ohio Journal of Science 1957, 57(1):11.
37. Stonefelt M.D., Fontaine T.A., Hotchkiss R.H. Impacts of climate change on water yield in the Upper Wind River Basin. Journal of American Water Resources Association 2000, 36(2):321-336.
38. Stoto M.A. The accuracy of population projections. Journal of the American Statistical Association 1983, 78(381):13-20.
39. Thomson A.M., Brown R.A., Rosenberg N.J., Srinivasan R., Izaurralde C. Climate change impacts for the conterminous USA: an integrated assessment, Part 4: water resources. Climate Change 2005, 69:67-88.
40. Tobler W.R. A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region. Economic Geography 1970, 46:234-240.
41. Tsihrintzis V.A., Fuentes H.R., Gadipudi R.K. GIS-aided modeling of nonpoint source pollution impacts on surface and ground water. Water Resources Management 1997, 11:207-218.
42. Census 2000 datasets 2008, US Census Bureau, Population Division. U.S. Bureau of the Census, Accessed 08.08.08. http://www2.census.gov/census_2000/datasets.
43. United States census 2000 2010, US Census Bureau, Bureau of the Census, Accessed 01.08.09. http://www.census.gov/.
44. The wild and scenic river study process 1999, USDA, Technical Report Prepared for the Interagency Wild and Scenic Rivers Coordinating Council, U.S. Forest Service and National Park Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Oregon.
45. Climate change in Ohio 1998, USEPA, EPA-236-F-98-007s, Office of Policy, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C.
46. National recommended water quality criteria 2005, USEPA, Office of Water. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C.
47. Heavily used pesticides found in more than 90% of stream samples in southwestern Ohio 2004, USGS, News Release, May 2004, U.S. Geological Survey, Accessed 27.12.07. http://oh.water.usgs.gov/miam/MIAM_NAWQ_SUM_RPT.
48. White R., Engelen G. Cellular automata and fractal urban form: a cellular modeling approach to the evolution of urban land-use patterns. Environment and Planning A 1993, 25(8):1175-1199.
49. Wilby R.L., Whitehead P.G., Wade A.J., Butterfield D., Davis R.J., Watts G. Integrated modelling of climate change impacts on water resources and quality in a lowland catchment: River Kennet, UK. Journal of Hydrology 2006, 330:204-220.
50. Yang Y.J. Redefine water infrastructure adaptation to a nonstationary climate. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 2010, 136:297-301.
51. Zandbergen P.A. Urban watershed risk assessment using GIS: a case study of the Brunette River watershed in British Columbia, Canada. Journal of Hazardous Materials 1998, 61:163-173.
52. Zhu T., Jenkins M.W., Lund R. Estimated impacts of climate warming on California water availability under twelve future climate scenarios. Journal of American Water Resources Association 2005, 41(5):1027-1038.