A georeferenced agent-based model to analyze the climate change impacts on ski tourism at a regional scale

International Journal of Geographical Information Science

Volumn 28, Issue 12, 2014, Pages 2474-2494

  Pons, Marc ^a,b   Johnson, Peter A ^c   Rosas, Martí ^b   Jover, Eric ^a  

^a AD600 Sant Julià de Lòria   (Andorra)

^b UNIVERSITAT POLITÈCNICA DE CATALUNYA   (Spain)

^c UNIVERSITY OF WATERLOO   (Canada)

Author keywords

adaptation; agent based model; climate change; GIS; winter tourism

Indexed keywords

EID: 84918831757     PISSN: 13658816     EISSN: 13623087     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/13658816.2014.933481     Document Type: Article

References (67)

1. Abegg, B., 1996. Klimaänderung und Tourismus. Klimafolgenforschung am Beispiel des Wintertourismus in den Schweizer Alpen. Zurich: vdf Hochschuleverlag an der ETH.
2. Abegg, B., et al., 2007. Climate change impacts and adaptation in winter tourism. In: S. Agrawala, ed. Climate change in the European Alps: adapting winter tourism and natural hazards management. Paris: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, 25–60.
3. Alexandru, A., de Elia, R., and Laprise, R., 2007. Internal variability in regional climate downscaling at the seasonal scale. Monthly Weather Review, 135 (9), 3221–3238. doi:10.1175/MWR3456.1.
4. Andorra Turisme, 2012. National tourism surveys. Andorra Government.
5. ATUDEM, 2013. Dossier de premsa 2012–2013 [online]. Associación Tursítica de Estaciones De Esquí y Montaña. Available from: http://atudem.org/prensa/temporada-de-esqui.html [Accessed 21 February 2014].
6. Axtell, R.L., et al., 2002. Population growth and collapse in a multi-agent model of the Kayenta Anasazi in long house valley. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 99 (3), 7275–7279. doi:10.1073/pnas.092080799.
7. Baggio, R., 2008. Symptoms of complexity in a tourism system. Tourism Analysis, 13, 1–20. doi:10.3727/108354208784548797.
8. Balbi, S., et al., 2013. A spatial agent-based model for assessing strategies of adaptation to climate and tourism demand changes in an alpine tourism destination. Environmental Modelling & Software, 45, 29–51. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.10.004.
9. Becken, S., 2005. Harmonising climate change adaptation and mitigation: the case of tourist resorts in Fiji. Global Environmental Change, 15 (4), 381–393. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2005.08.001.
10. Behringer, J., Buerki, R., and Fuhrer, J., 2000. Participatory integrated assessment of adaptation to climate change in alpine tourism and mountain agriculture. Integrated Assessment, 1 (4), 331–338. doi:10.1023/A:1018940901744.
11. Bithell, M. and Brasington, J., 2009. Coupling agent-based models of subsistence farming with individual-based forest models and dynamic models of water distribution. Environmental Modelling & Software, 24 (2), 173–190. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.06.016.
12. Botti, L., Goncalves, O., and Peypoch, N., 2012. Benchmarking Pyrenean ski resorts. Journal of Alpine Research, 100–104. doi:10.4000/rga.1855.
13. Crooks, A.T., 2010. Constructing and implementing an agent-based model of residential segregation through vector GIS. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 24 (5), 661–675. doi:10.1080/13658810903569572.
14. Dawson, J., 2009. Climate change vulnerability of the US northeast ski sector: a multi-methods systems-based approach. Thesis (PhD). Department of Geography and Environmental Management, University of Waterloo.
15. Dawson, J., Havitz, M., and Scott, D., 2011. Behavioral adaptation of alpine skiers to climate change: examining activity involvement and place loyalty. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 28 (4), 388–404. doi:10.1080/10548408.2011.571573.
16. Dawson, J. and Scott, D., 2013. Managing for climate change in the alpine ski sector. Tourism Management, 35, 244–254. doi:10.1016/j.tourman.2012.07.009.
17. Dawson, J., Scott, D., and Havitz, M., 2013. Skier demand and behavioural adaptation to climate change in the US Northeast. Leisure/Loisir, 37 (2), 127–143. doi:10.1080/14927713.2013.805037.
18. Dawson, J., Scott, D., and Mcboyle, G., 2009. Climate change analogue analysis of ski tourism in the north eastern USA. Climate Researcher, 39, 1–9. doi:10.3354/cr00793.
19. DSF, 2012. Recueil d’indicateurs et analyses 2012 [online]. Domaines Skiables de France. Available from: http://www.domaines-skiables.fr/downloads/uploads/Indicateurs-et-Analyses%202012-BD-2.PDF [Accessed 21 February 2014].
20. Ford, J.D., et al., 2010. Case study and analogue methodologies in climate change vulnerability research. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 1 (3), 374–392. doi:10.1002/wcc.48.
21. Fukushima, T., et al., 2002. Influences of air temperature change on leisure industries: case study on ski activities. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 7, 173–189. doi:10.1023/A:1022803405470.
22. Gimblett, R. and Skov-Petersen, H., 2008. Monitoring, simulation, and management of visitor landscapes. Tuscon: University of Arizona.
23. Gössling, S., et al., 2012. Consumer behaviour and demand response of tourists to climate change. Annals of Tourism Research, 39 (1), 36–58. doi:10.1016/j.annals.2011.11.002.
24. Grimm, V., et al., 2006. A standard protocol for describing individual-based and agent-based models. Ecological Modelling, 198 (1–2), 115–126. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.04.023.
25. Grimm, V., et al., 2010. The ODD protocol: a review and first update. Ecological Modelling, 221, 2760–2768. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.08.019.
26. Hamilton, L., Brown, C., and Keim, B.D., 2007. Ski areas, weather and climate: time series models for New England case studies. International Journal of Climatology, 27, 2113–2124. doi:10.1002/joc.1502.
27. Hennessy, K., et al., 2003. The impact of climate change on snow conditions in mainland Australia. Aspendale: CSIRO Atmospheric Research.
28. Hoffmann, V.H., et al., 2009. Determinants of corporate adaptation to climate change in winter tourism: an econometric analysis. Global Environmental Change, 19 (2), 256–264. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.12.002.
29. IPCC, 2007. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
30. Isard, W., 1960. Methods of regional analysis: an introduction to regional science. Cambridge: The MIT Press.
31. Itami, R., et al., 2002. RBSim 2: simulating the complex interactions between human movement and the outdoor recreation environment. In: A. Arnberger, C. Brandenburg, and A. Muhar, eds. Conference proceedings monitoring and management of visitor flows in recreational and protected areas, 30January–02 February 2002. Vienna: Institute for Landscape Architecture and Landscape Management University of Agricultural Sciences, 191–198.
32. Janssen, M.A., 2009. Understanding artificial Anasazi. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation [online], 12 (4), 13. Available from: http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/12/4/13.html [Accessed 21 February 2014].
33. Johnson, P.A. and Sieber, R.E., 2009. Agent-based modelling: a dynamic scenario planning approach to tourism PSS. In: S. Geertman and J. Stillwell, eds. Planning support systems: best practices and new methods. Berlin: Springer, 211–226.
34. Johnson, P.A. and Sieber, R.E., 2010. An individual-based approach to modeling tourism dynamics. Tourism Analysis, 15 (5), 517–530. doi:10.3727/108354210X12889831783198.
35. Johnson, P.A. and Sieber, R.E., 2011. An agent-based approach to providing tourism planning support. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 38 (3), 486–504. doi:10.1068/b35148.
36. Jung, W.S., Wang, F., and Stanley, H.E., 2008. Gravity model in the Korean highway. EPL (Europhysics Letters), 81, 48005. doi:10.1209/0295-5075/81/48005.
37. Kaluza, P., et al., 2010. The complex network of global cargo ship movements. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 7, 1093–1103. doi:10.1098/rsif.2009.0495.
38. Karemera, D., Oguledo, V.I., and Davis, B., 2000. A gravity model analysis of international migration to North America. Applied Economics, 32 (13), 1745–1755. doi:10.1080/000368400421093.
39. Kohler, T.A. and Gumerman, G.J., 1999. Dynamics in human and primate societies: agent-based modeling of social and spatial processes. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
40. Krings, G., et al., 2009. Urban gravity: a model for intercity telecommunication flows. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment, 2009, L07003.
41. Lamothe and Périard Consultants, 1988. Implications of climate change for downhill skiing in Québec. Climate Change Digest 88-03. Ottawa: Environment Canada.
42. Ligmann-Zielinska, A. and Jankowski, P., 2007. Agent-based models as laboratories for spatially explicit planning policies. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 34, 316–335. doi:10.1068/b32088.
43. López-Moreno, J.L., Goyette, S., and Beniston, M., 2009. Impact of climate change on snowpack in the Pyrenees: horizontal spatial variability and vertical gradients. Journal of Hydrology, 374, 384−396. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.049.
44. Manson, S.M. and Evans, T., 2007. Agent-based modeling of deforestation in southern Yucatán, Mexico, and reforestation in the Midwest United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104 (52), 20678–20683. doi:10.1073/pnas.0705802104.
45. March, H., Saurí, D., and Llurdés, J.C., 2014. Perception of the effects of climate change in winter and summer tourist areas: the Pyrenees and the Catalan and Balearic coasts, Spain. Regional Environmental Change, 14 (3), 1189–1201. doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0561-0.
46. Moen, J. and Fredman, P., 2007. Effects of climate change on alpine skiing in Sweden. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 15, 418–437. doi:10.2167/jost624.0.
47. Monge, G., 1781. Mémoire sur la Théorie des Déblais et de Remblais. Histoire de l’Académie Royale des Sciences de Paris, avec les Mémoires de Mathématique et de Physique pour la même année. Paris: De l’Imprimerie Royale, 666–704.
48. Parker, D.C., et al., 2003. Multi-agent systems for the simulation of land-use and land-cover change: a review. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 93 (2), 314–337. doi:10.1111/1467-8306.9302004.
49. Perez, L. and Dragicevic, S., 2010. Modeling mountain pine beetle infestation with an agent-based approach at two spatial scales. Environmental Modelling & Software, 25 (2), 223–236. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2009.08.004.
50. Pons-Pons, M., et al., 2012. Modeling climate change effects on winter ski tourism in Andorra. Climate Researcher, 54, 197–207. doi:10.3354/cr01117.
51. Pöyhönen, P., 1963. A tentative model for the volume of trade between countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archives, 90, 93–100.
52. PüTz, M., et al., 2011. Winter tourism, climate change, and snowmaking in the Swiss Alps: tourists’ attitudes and regional economic impacts. Mountain Research and Development, 28, 292−298.
53. Scott, D., Dawson, J., and Jones, B., 2008. Climate change vulnerability of the US northeast winter recreation – tourism sector. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 13 (5–6), 577–596. doi:10.1007/s11027-007-9136-z
54. Scott, D., Gössling, S., and Hall, C.M., 2012. Climate change and tourism: impacts, adaptation and mitigation. London: Routledge, 423 pp.
55. Scott, D., Mcboyle, G., and Mills, B., 2003. Climate change and the skiing industry in southern Ontario (Canada): exploring the importance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation. Climate Researcher, 23, 171−181. doi:10.3354/cr023171.
56. Scott, D., et al., 2006. Climate change and the sustainability of ski-based tourism in eastern North America: a reassessment. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 14 (4), 376–398. doi:10.2167/jost550.0.
57. Simini, F., et al., 2012. A universal model for mobility and migration patterns. Nature, 484, 96–100. doi:10.1038/nature10856.
58. Ski Andorra. 2013. Available from: www.skiandorra.ad [Accessed 21 November 2013].
59. Smajgl, A., et al., 2009. Simulating impacts of water trading in an institutional perspective. Environmental Modelling & Software, 24 (2), 191–201. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.07.005.
60. Steiger, R., 2010. The impact of climate change on ski season length and snowmaking requirements in Tyrol, Austria. Climate Researcher, 43, 251−262. doi:10.3354/cr00941.
61. Steiger, R., 2011. The impact of snow scarcity on ski tourism: an analysis of the record warm season 2006/2007 in Tyrol (Austria). Tourism Review, 66 (3), 4–13. doi:10.1108/16605371111175285
62. Steiger, R. and Abegg, B., 2013. The sensitivity of Austrian ski areas to climate change. Tourism, Planning and Development, 10 (4), 480–493.
63. Thiemann, C., et al., 2010. The structure of borders in a small world. Plos ONE, 5, e15422. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0015422.
64. Uhlmann, B., Goyette, S., and Beniston, M., 2009. Sensitivity analysis of snow patterns in Swiss ski resorts to shifts in temperature, precipitation and humidity under conditions of climate change. International Journal of Climatology, 29, 1048–1055. doi:10.1002/joc.1786.
65. Unbehaun, W., Pröbstl, U., and Haider, W., 2008. Trends in winter sport tourism: challenges for the future. Tourism Review, 63 (1), 36–47. doi:10.1108/16605370810861035.
66. Viaggi, D., Bartolini, F., and Raggi, M., 2009. Combining linear programming and principal–agent models: an example from environmental regulation in agriculture. Environmental Modelling & Software, 24 (6), 703–710. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.10.014.
67. Zipf, G.K., 1946. The P1P2/D hypothesis: on the intercity movement of persons. American Sociological Review, 11, 677–686. doi:10.2307/2087063.