메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 519, Issue PD, 2014, Pages 2869-2889

Verification of temperature, precipitation, and streamflow forecasts from the NOAA/NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS): 1. Experimental design and forcing verification

Author keywords

Bias correction; Ensemble verification; Operational forecasting; Precipitation; Skill; Temperature

Indexed keywords

CLIMATOLOGY; PRECIPITATION (CHEMICAL); STREAM FLOW; TEMPERATURE;

EID: 84918831729     PISSN: 00221694     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.028     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (40)

References (51)
  • 1
    • 4444283099 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On model uncertainty, risk and decision making
    • Beven K.J. On model uncertainty, risk and decision making. Hydrol. Process. 2000, 14:2605-2606.
    • (2000) Hydrol. Process. , vol.14 , pp. 2605-2606
    • Beven, K.J.1
  • 2
    • 3242742139 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Distributions-oriented verification of ensemble streamflow predictions
    • Bradley A.A., Schwartz S.S., Hashino T. Distributions-oriented verification of ensemble streamflow predictions. J. Hydrometeorol. 2004, 5(3):532-545.
    • (2004) J. Hydrometeorol. , vol.5 , Issue.3 , pp. 532-545
    • Bradley, A.A.1    Schwartz, S.S.2    Hashino, T.3
  • 3
    • 0003010182 scopus 로고
    • Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability
    • Brier G.W. Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Mon. Weather Rev. 1950, 78:1-3.
    • (1950) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.78 , pp. 1-3
    • Brier, G.W.1
  • 4
    • 34447633042 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Increasing the reliability of reliability diagrams
    • Bröcker J., Smith L.A. Increasing the reliability of reliability diagrams. Weather Forecasting 2007, 22(3):651-661.
    • (2007) Weather Forecasting , vol.22 , Issue.3 , pp. 651-661
    • Bröcker, J.1    Smith, L.A.2
  • 5
    • 77949420242 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Prospects for the open treatment of uncertainty in environmental research
    • Brown J.D. Prospects for the open treatment of uncertainty in environmental research. Prog. Phys. Geogr. 2010, 34:75-100. 10.1177/0309133309357000.
    • (2010) Prog. Phys. Geogr. , vol.34 , pp. 75-100
    • Brown, J.D.1
  • 6
    • 84871438655 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of a nonparametric post-processor for bias-correction and uncertainty estimation of hydrologic predictions
    • Brown J.D., Seo D.-J. Evaluation of a nonparametric post-processor for bias-correction and uncertainty estimation of hydrologic predictions. Hydrol. Process. 2013, 27(1):83-105. 10.1002/hyp.9263.
    • (2013) Hydrol. Process. , vol.27 , Issue.1 , pp. 83-105
    • Brown, J.D.1    Seo, D.-J.2
  • 7
    • 77949571388 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Ensemble Verification System (EVS): a software tool for verifying ensemble forecasts of hydrometeorological and hydrologic variables at discrete locations
    • Brown J.D., Demargne J., Seo D.-J., Liu Y. The Ensemble Verification System (EVS): a software tool for verifying ensemble forecasts of hydrometeorological and hydrologic variables at discrete locations. Environ. Model. Softw. 2010, 25:854-872.
    • (2010) Environ. Model. Softw. , vol.25 , pp. 854-872
    • Brown, J.D.1    Demargne, J.2    Seo, D.-J.3    Liu, Y.4
  • 8
    • 84918830573 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Verification of temperature, precipitation, and streamflow forecasts from the NOAA/NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS): 2. Streamflow verification
    • Brown J.D., He M., Regonda S., Wu L., Lee H., Seo D.J., 2014. Verification of temperature, precipitation, and streamflow forecasts from the NOAA/NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS): 2. Streamflow verification, J. Hydrol. 519, 2847-2868.
    • (2014) J. Hydrol , vol.519 , pp. 2847-2868
    • Brown, J.D.1    He, M.2    Regonda, S.3    Wu, L.4    Lee, H.5    Seo, D.J.6
  • 9
    • 84864767580 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Verification of precipitation forecasts from NCEP's Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system with reference to ensemble streamflow prediction using lumped hydrologic models
    • Brown J.D., Seo D.-J., Du J. Verification of precipitation forecasts from NCEP's Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system with reference to ensemble streamflow prediction using lumped hydrologic models. J. Hydrometeorol. 2012, 13(3):808-836.
    • (2012) J. Hydrometeorol. , vol.13 , Issue.3 , pp. 808-836
    • Brown, J.D.1    Seo, D.-J.2    Du, J.3
  • 10
    • 1642284456 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Schaake Shuffle: a method for reconstructing space-time variability in forecasted precipitation and temperature fields
    • Clark M., Gangopadhyay S., Hay L., Rajagopalan B., Wilby R. The Schaake Shuffle: a method for reconstructing space-time variability in forecasted precipitation and temperature fields. J. Hydrometeorol. 2004, 5:243-262.
    • (2004) J. Hydrometeorol. , vol.5 , pp. 243-262
    • Clark, M.1    Gangopadhyay, S.2    Hay, L.3    Rajagopalan, B.4    Wilby, R.5
  • 12
    • 0022266169 scopus 로고
    • Extended streamflow forecasting using NWSRFS
    • Day G.N. Extended streamflow forecasting using NWSRFS. J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage. 1985, 111(2):157-170.
    • (1985) J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage. , vol.111 , Issue.2 , pp. 157-170
    • Day, G.N.1
  • 13
  • 15
    • 84871458201 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The European Flood Alert System and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management
    • Demeritt D., Nobert S., Cloke H.L., Pappenberger F. The European Flood Alert System and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management. Hydrol. Process. 2013, 27:147-157. 10.1002/hyp.9419.
    • (2013) Hydrol. Process. , vol.27 , pp. 147-157
    • Demeritt, D.1    Nobert, S.2    Cloke, H.L.3    Pappenberger, F.4
  • 16
    • 0001737050 scopus 로고
    • The use of model output statistics (MOS) in objective weather forecasting
    • Glahn H., Lowry D. The use of model output statistics (MOS) in objective weather forecasting. J. Appl. Meteorol. 1972, 11(8):1203-1211.
    • (1972) J. Appl. Meteorol. , vol.11 , Issue.8 , pp. 1203-1211
    • Glahn, H.1    Lowry, D.2
  • 17
    • 26844438590 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Weather forecasting with ensemble methods
    • Gneiting T., Raftery A.E. Weather forecasting with ensemble methods. Science 2005, 310(5746):248-249.
    • (2005) Science , vol.310 , Issue.5746 , pp. 248-249
    • Gneiting, T.1    Raftery, A.E.2
  • 20
    • 32544435618 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reforecasts: an important data set for improving weather predictions
    • Hamill T.M., Whitaker J.S., Mullen S.L. Reforecasts: an important data set for improving weather predictions. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2006, 87(1):33-46.
    • (2006) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.87 , Issue.1 , pp. 33-46
    • Hamill, T.M.1    Whitaker, J.S.2    Mullen, S.L.3
  • 21
    • 52149093177 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic forecast calibration using ECMWF and GFS ensemble reforecasts. Part II: Precipitation
    • Hamill T.M., Hagedorn R., Whitaker J.S. Probabilistic forecast calibration using ECMWF and GFS ensemble reforecasts. Part II: Precipitation. Mon. Weather Rev. 2008, 136:2620-2632.
    • (2008) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.136 , pp. 2620-2632
    • Hamill, T.M.1    Hagedorn, R.2    Whitaker, J.S.3
  • 23
    • 0023780330 scopus 로고
    • The robustness of the ''binormal'' assumptions used in fitting ROC curves
    • Hanley J. The robustness of the ''binormal'' assumptions used in fitting ROC curves. Med. Decis. Making 1988, 8:197-203.
    • (1988) Med. Decis. Making , vol.8 , pp. 197-203
    • Hanley, J.1
  • 25
    • 1842583695 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A generic framework for spatial prediction of soil variables based on regression-kriging
    • Hengl T., Heuvelink G.B.M., Stein A. A generic framework for spatial prediction of soil variables based on regression-kriging. Geoderma 2004, 120(1-2):75-93. 10.1016/j.geoderma.2003.08.018.
    • (2004) Geoderma , vol.120 , Issue.1-2 , pp. 75-93
    • Hengl, T.1    Heuvelink, G.B.M.2    Stein, A.3
  • 26
    • 0034292468 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decomposition of the continuous ranked probability score for ensemble prediction systems
    • Hersbach H. Decomposition of the continuous ranked probability score for ensemble prediction systems. Weather Forecasting 2000, 15:559-570.
    • (2000) Weather Forecasting , vol.15 , pp. 559-570
    • Hersbach, H.1
  • 27
    • 0000100596 scopus 로고
    • The attributes diagram: a geometrical framework for assessing the quality of probability forecasts
    • Hsu W.-R., Murphy A.H. The attributes diagram: a geometrical framework for assessing the quality of probability forecasts. Int. J. Forecast. 1986, 2:285-293.
    • (1986) Int. J. Forecast. , vol.2 , pp. 285-293
    • Hsu, W.-R.1    Murphy, A.H.2
  • 29
    • 14944381637 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Confronting input uncertainty in environmental modeling
    • AGU Books, Washington, DC, Q. Duan, H. Gupta, S. Sorooshian, A.N. Rousseau, R. Turcotte (Eds.)
    • Kavetski D., Franks S.W., Kuczera G. Confronting input uncertainty in environmental modeling. Calibration of Watershed Models 2002, 49-68. AGU Books, Washington, DC. Q. Duan, H. Gupta, S. Sorooshian, A.N. Rousseau, R. Turcotte (Eds.).
    • (2002) Calibration of Watershed Models , pp. 49-68
    • Kavetski, D.1    Franks, S.W.2    Kuczera, G.3
  • 30
    • 0002098934 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A bivariate meta-Gaussian density for use in hydrology
    • Kelly K.S., Krzysztofowicz R. A bivariate meta-Gaussian density for use in hydrology. Stoch. Hydrol. Hydraul. 1997, 11:17-31.
    • (1997) Stoch. Hydrol. Hydraul. , vol.11 , pp. 17-31
    • Kelly, K.S.1    Krzysztofowicz, R.2
  • 31
    • 84863230678 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Coauthors Evolving multisensor precipitation estimation methods: their impacts on flow prediction using a distributed hydrologic model
    • Kitzmiller D., Coauthors Evolving multisensor precipitation estimation methods: their impacts on flow prediction using a distributed hydrologic model. J. Hydrometeorol. 2011, 12:1414-1431.
    • (2011) J. Hydrometeorol. , vol.12 , pp. 1414-1431
    • Kitzmiller, D.1
  • 32
    • 84871400489 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluating the predictive skill of post-processed NCEP GFS ensemble precipitation forecasts in China's Huai river basin
    • Liu Y., Duan Q., Zhao L., Ye A., Tao Y., Miao C., Mu X., Schaake J.C. Evaluating the predictive skill of post-processed NCEP GFS ensemble precipitation forecasts in China's Huai river basin. Hydrol. Process. 2013, 27:57-74. 10.1002/hyp.9496.
    • (2013) Hydrol. Process. , vol.27 , pp. 57-74
    • Liu, Y.1    Duan, Q.2    Zhao, L.3    Ye, A.4    Tao, Y.5    Miao, C.6    Mu, X.7    Schaake, J.C.8
  • 33
    • 72149083024 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluating uncertainty in integrated environmental models: a review of concepts and tools
    • Matott L.S., Babendreier J.E., Parucker S.T. Evaluating uncertainty in integrated environmental models: a review of concepts and tools. Water Resour. Res. 2009, 45:WO6421. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007301.
    • (2009) Water Resour. Res. , vol.45 , pp. WO6421
    • Matott, L.S.1    Babendreier, J.E.2    Parucker, S.T.3
  • 34
    • 0002822137 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • "Proper'' binormal ROC curves: theory and maximum-likelihood estimation
    • Metz C.E., Pan X. "Proper'' binormal ROC curves: theory and maximum-likelihood estimation. J. Math. Psychol. 1999, 43:1-33.
    • (1999) J. Math. Psychol. , vol.43 , pp. 1-33
    • Metz, C.E.1    Pan, X.2
  • 35
    • 72149128601 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating the uncertainty of hydrological forecasts: a statistical approach
    • Montanari A., Grossi G. Estimating the uncertainty of hydrological forecasts: a statistical approach. Water Resour. Res. 2008, 44:W00B08. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008WR006897.
    • (2008) Water Resour. Res. , vol.44 , pp. W00B08
    • Montanari, A.1    Grossi, G.2
  • 36
    • 0023486961 scopus 로고
    • A general framework for forecast verification
    • Murphy A.H., Winkler R.L. A general framework for forecast verification. Mon. Weather Rev. 1987, 115:1330-1338.
    • (1987) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.115 , pp. 1330-1338
    • Murphy, A.H.1    Winkler, R.L.2
  • 37
    • 69949178790 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The skill of ECMWF precipitation and temperature predictions in the Danube basin as forcings of hydrological models
    • Pappenberger F., Buizza R. The skill of ECMWF precipitation and temperature predictions in the Danube basin as forcings of hydrological models. Weather Forecasting 2009, 24:749-766.
    • (2009) Weather Forecasting , vol.24 , pp. 749-766
    • Pappenberger, F.1    Buizza, R.2
  • 38
    • 27644532560 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Cascading model uncertainty from medium range weather forecasts (10days) through a rainfall-runoff model to flood inundation predictions within the European Flood Forecasting System (EFFS)
    • Pappenberger F., Beven K.J., Hunter N., Bates P.D., Couweleeuw B.T., Thielen J., de Roo A.P.J. Cascading model uncertainty from medium range weather forecasts (10days) through a rainfall-runoff model to flood inundation predictions within the European Flood Forecasting System (EFFS). Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2005, 9:381-393.
    • (2005) Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. , vol.9 , pp. 381-393
    • Pappenberger, F.1    Beven, K.J.2    Hunter, N.3    Bates, P.D.4    Couweleeuw, B.T.5    Thielen, J.6    de Roo, A.P.J.7
  • 39
    • 0005452798 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Integration of meteorological forecasts/climate outlooks into an ensemble streamflow prediction system
    • American Meteorological Society, Phoenix, Arizona.
    • Perica, S., 1998. Integration of meteorological forecasts/climate outlooks into an ensemble streamflow prediction system. In: 14th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, American Meteorological Society, Phoenix, Arizona.
    • (1998) 14th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
    • Perica, S.1
  • 40
    • 84896532189 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Short-term water management decisions: user needs for improved climate, weather, and hydrologic information. In: A Report of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Bureau of Reclamation, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    • CWTS 2013-1. Available at: (accessed 01.04.13).
    • Raff, D., Brekke, L., Werner, K., Wood, A., White, K., 2013. Short-term water management decisions: user needs for improved climate, weather, and hydrologic information. In: A Report of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Bureau of Reclamation, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, CWTS 2013-1. Available at: (accessed 01.04.13). http://www.ccawwg.us/docs/Short-Term_Water_Management_Decisions_Final_3_Jan_2013.pdf.
    • (2013)
    • Raff, D.1    Brekke, L.2    Werner, K.3    Wood, A.4    White, K.5
  • 42
    • 84880015692 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting using operationally produced single-valued streamflow forecasts - a Hydrologic Model Output Statistics (HMOS) approach
    • Regonda S., Seo D.-J., Lawrence B., Brown J.D., Demargne J. Short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting using operationally produced single-valued streamflow forecasts - a Hydrologic Model Output Statistics (HMOS) approach. J. Hydrol. 2013, 497(8):80-96. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.05.028.
    • (2013) J. Hydrol. , vol.497 , Issue.8 , pp. 80-96
    • Regonda, S.1    Seo, D.-J.2    Lawrence, B.3    Brown, J.D.4    Demargne, J.5
  • 44
    • 84856608113 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A statistical post-processor for accounting of hydrologic uncertainty in short-range ensemble streamflow prediction
    • Seo D.-J., Herr H.D., Schaake J.C. A statistical post-processor for accounting of hydrologic uncertainty in short-range ensemble streamflow prediction. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2006, 3:1987-2035.
    • (2006) Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. , vol.3 , pp. 1987-2035
    • Seo, D.-J.1    Herr, H.D.2    Schaake, J.C.3
  • 46
    • 77953228336 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Water vapor fluxes and orographic precipitation over Northern California associated with a landfalling atmospheric river
    • Smith B.L., Yuter S.E., Neiman P.J., Kingsmill D.E. Water vapor fluxes and orographic precipitation over Northern California associated with a landfalling atmospheric river. Mon. Weather Rev. 2010, 138:74-100. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR2939.1.
    • (2010) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.138 , pp. 74-100
    • Smith, B.L.1    Yuter, S.E.2    Neiman, P.J.3    Kingsmill, D.E.4
  • 47
    • 84871407564 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Post-processing hydrological ensemble predictions intercomparison experiment
    • van Andel S.J., Weerts A., Schaake J., Bogner K. Post-processing hydrological ensemble predictions intercomparison experiment. Hydrol. Process. 2013, 27:158-161. 10.1002/hyp.9595.
    • (2013) Hydrol. Process. , vol.27 , pp. 158-161
    • van Andel, S.J.1    Weerts, A.2    Schaake, J.3    Bogner, K.4
  • 48
    • 0018677550 scopus 로고
    • Weather and circulation of January 1979
    • Wagner J.A. Weather and circulation of January 1979. Mon. Weather Rev. 1979, 107:499-506.
    • (1979) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.107 , pp. 499-506
    • Wagner, J.A.1
  • 50
    • 34447309549 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparison of ensemble-MOS methods using GFS reforecasts
    • Wilks D.S., Hamill T.M. Comparison of ensemble-MOS methods using GFS reforecasts. Mon. Weather Rev. 2007, 135:2379-2390. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR3402.1.
    • (2007) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.135 , pp. 2379-2390
    • Wilks, D.S.1    Hamill, T.M.2
  • 51
    • 79952005381 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Generation of ensemble precipitation forecast from single-valued quantitative precipitation forecast via meta-Gaussian distribution models
    • Wu L., Seo D.-J., Demargne J., Brown J.D., Cong S., Schaake J. Generation of ensemble precipitation forecast from single-valued quantitative precipitation forecast via meta-Gaussian distribution models. J. Hydrol. 2011, 399(3-4):281-298.
    • (2011) J. Hydrol. , vol.399 , Issue.3-4 , pp. 281-298
    • Wu, L.1    Seo, D.-J.2    Demargne, J.3    Brown, J.D.4    Cong, S.5    Schaake, J.6


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.