Estimating the uncertainty of hydrological forecasts: A statistical approach

Water Resources Research

Volumn 44, Issue 12, 2008, Pages

  Montanari, Alberto ^a   Grossi, Giovanna ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BOLOGNA   (Italy)

^b UNIVERSITY OF BRESCIA   (Italy)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EXPLANATORY VARIABLES; FORECASTING PROCEDURES; HYDROLOGICAL FORECAST; REAL-TIME FLOOD FORECASTING; REAL-WORLD IMPLEMENTATION; SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY; STATISTICAL APPROACH; UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATES;

FLOOD CONTROL; PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS; STATISTICAL TESTS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

FORECASTING;

EID: 72149128601     PISSN: 00431397     EISSN: 19447973     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2008WR006897     Document Type: Article

References (25)

1. Bacchi, B., and R. Ranzi (2003), Hydrological and meteorological aspects of floods in the Alps: An overview, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 784-798.
2. Bacchi, B., G. Grossi, R. Ranzi, and A. Buzzi (2002), On the use of coupled mesoscale meteorological and hydrological models for flood forecasting in midsize mountain catchments: Operational experience and verification, in Flood Defence '2002, B. Wu et al., pp. 965-972, Science, New York.
3. Beven, K. J. (2006a), A manifesto for the equifinality thesis, J. Hydrol., 320, 18-36.
4. Beven, K. J. (2006b), On undermining the science?, Hydrol. Processes, 20, 3141-3146, doi:10.1002/hyp.6396. (Pubitemid 44404695)
5. Bougeault, P., P. Binder, A. Buzzi, R. Dirks, R. Houze, J. Kuettner, R. B. Smith, R. Steinacker, and H. Volkert (2001), The MAP special observing period, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 82, 433-462, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2001) 082<0433:TMSOP>2.3.CO;2. (Pubitemid 33637112)
6. Boyle, D. P. (2000), Multicriteria calibration of hydrological models, Ph.D. dissertation, Dep. of Hydrol. and Water Resour., Univ. of Ariz., Tucson.
7. Buzzi, A., and L. Foschini (2000), Mesoscale meteorological features associated with heavy precipitation in the southern Alpine region, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 72, 131-146.
8. Cook, R. D., and S. Weisberg (1994), An Introduction to Regression Graphics, John Wiley, New York.
9. Cowpertwait, P. S. P. (1995), A generalized spatial-temporal model of rainfall based on a clustered point process, Proc. R. Soc. London, Ser. A, 450, 163-175. (Pubitemid 26439501)
10. Franchini, M. (1996), Use of a genetic algorithm combined with a local search method for the automatic calibration of conceptual rainfall runoff models, Hydrol. Sci. J., 41, 21-39. (Pubitemid 26479443)
11. Grossi, G., and N. Kouwen (2004), Intercomparison among hydrologic simulations coupled to meteorological predictions provided by different mesoscale meteorological models, paper presented at 29th National Conference onHydraulics andHydraulicWorks,Univ. of Trento, Cosenza, Italy, 7-10 Sept. (Available at http://dicata.ing.unibs.it/grossi/ggnk-trento2004.pdf)
12. Kelly, K. S., and R. Krzysztofowicz (1997), A bivariate meta-Gaussian density for use in hydrology, Stochastic Hydrol. Hydraul., 11, 17-31, doi:10.1007/BF02428423. (Pubitemid 127823850)
13. Krzysztofowicz, R. (2001), The case for probabilistic forecasting in hydrology, J. Hydrol., 249, 2-9, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00420-6. (Pubitemid 32664992)
14. Krzysztofowicz, R. (2002), Bayesian system for probabilistic river stage forecasting, J. Hydrol., 268, 16-40, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00106-3. (Pubitemid 35307221)
15. Laio, F., and S. Tamea (2007), Verification tools for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1267-1277. (Pubitemid 46707033)
16. Mantovan, P., and E. Todini (2006), Hydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment: incoherence of the GLUE methodology, J. Hydrol., 330, 368-381, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.04.046. (Pubitemid 44528546)
17. Montanari, A. (2005), Large sample behaviors of the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) in assessing the uncertainty of rainfallrunoff simulations, Water Resour. Res., 41(8), W08406, doi:10.1029/2004WR003826. (Pubitemid 41393335)
18. Montanari, A. (2007), What do we mean by 'uncertainty'? The need for a consistent wording about uncertainty assessment in hydrology, Hydrol. Processes, 21, 841-845, doi:10.1002/hyp.6623. (Pubitemid 46470747)
19. Montanari, A., and A. Brath (2004), A stochastic approach for assessing the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff simulations, Water Resour. Res., 40, W01106, doi:10.1029/2003WR002540.
20. Montanari, A., R. Rosso, and M. S. Taqqu (1997), Fractionally differenced ARIMA models applied to hydrologic time series: Identification, estimation and simulation, Water Resour. Res., 33, 1035-1044, doi:10.1029/97WR00043.
21. Nash, J. E., and J. V. Sutcliffe (1970), River flow forecasting through conceptual models 1: A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282-290, doi:10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6.
22. Ranzi, R., B. Bacchi, and G. Grossi (2003), Runoff measurements and hydrological modelling for the estimation of rainfall volumes in an Alpine basin, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 129, 653-672, doi:10.1256/qj.02.60. (Pubitemid 36400631)
23. Stedinger, J. R., R. M. Vogel, and E. Foufoula-Georgiou (1993), Frequency analysis of extreme events, in Handbook of Hydrology, edited by D. R. Maidment, pp. 18.1-18.66, McGraw-Hill, New York.
24. Vrugt, J. A., H. V. Gupta, W. Bouten, and S. Sorooshian (2003), A Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm for optimization and uncertainty assessment of hydrologic model parameters, Water Resour. Res., 39(8), 1201, doi:10.1029/2002WR001642.
25. Wagener, T., D. P. Boyle, M. J. Lees, H. S. Wheater, H. V. Gupta, and S. Sorooshian (2001), A framework for development and application of hydrological models, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 5, 13-26. (Pubitemid 32710655)