Climate variability, food security and poverty: Agent-based assessment of policy options for farm households in Northern Ghana

Environmental Science and Policy

Volumn 47, Issue , 2015, Pages 95-107

  Wossen, Tesfamicheal ^a,b   Berger, Thomas ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HOHENHEIM   (Germany)

^b International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)   (Viet Nam)

Author keywords

Bio economic modelling; Climate impact assessment; Food security; Mixed rain fed agriculture; Multi agent systems; Policy simulation

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; EMPLOYMENT STATUS; ENERGY CONSUMPTION; FOOD CROP; FOOD INTAKE; FOOD SECURITY; GHANA; HARVEST; HOUSEHOLD; HUMAN; INCOME; MARKET; POLICY; POVERTY;

EID: 84916910927     PISSN: 14629011     EISSN: 18736416     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2014.11.009     Document Type: Article

References (60)

1. Acosta-Michlik L., Espaldon V. Assessing vulnerability of selected farming communities in the Philippines based on a behavioral model of agent's adaptation to global environmental change. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2008, 18(4):554-563.
2. Angus S., Parris B., Hassani-M.B. Climate change impacts and adaptation in Bangladesh: an agent-based approach. 18th World IMACS/MODSIM Congress 2009, http://mssanz.org.au/modsim09.
3. Arribas A., Glover M., Maidens A., Peterson K., Gordon M., MacLachlan C., Graham R., Fereday D., Camp J., Scaife A.A., Xavier P., Colman A., Cusack S. The GloSea4 ensemble prediction system for seasonal forecasting. Mon. Weather Rev. 2011, 139:1891-1910.
4. Aurbacher J., Parker P.S., Calberto A., Steinbach J., Reinmuth E., Ingwersen J., Dabbert S. Influence of climate change on short term management of field crops: a modelling approach. Agric. Syst. 2013, 119:44-57.
5. Barrett C.B., Reardon T., Webb P. Nonfarm income diversification and household livelihood strategies in rural Africa: concepts, dynamics and policy implications. Food Policy 2001, 26:315-331.
6. Berger T. Agent-based spatial models applied to agriculture: a simulation tool for technology diffusion, resource use changes and policy analysis. Agric. Econ. 2001, 25:245-260.
7. Berger T., Birner R., Diaz J., McCarthy N., Wittmer H. Capturing the complexity of water uses and water users within a multi-agent framework. Water Resour. Manage. 2007, 21:129-148.
8. Berger T., Schreinemachers P., Woelcke J. Multi-agent simulation for development of less-favored areas. Agric. Syst. 2006, 88:28-43.
9. Berger T., Troost C. Agent-based modeling of climate adaptation and mitigation options in agriculture. J. Agric. Econ. 2013, 10.1111/1477-9552.12045.
10. Bharwani S., Bithell M., Downing T.E., New M., Washington R., Ziervogel G. Multi-agent modelling of climate outlooks and food security on a community garden scheme in Limpopo, South Africa. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B: Biol. Sci. 2005, 360(1463):2183-2194.
11. Bobojonov I., Hassan A.A. Impacts of climate change on farm income security in Central Asia: an integrated modeling approach. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2014, 188(2014):245-255.
12. Briner S., Elkin C., Huber R., Grêt-Regamey A. Assessing the impacts of economic and climate changes on land-use in mountain regions: a spatial dynamic modeling approach. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2012, 149:50-63.
13. Claessens L., Antle J., Stoorvogel J., Thornton P.K., Herrero M. A method for evaluating climate change adaptation strategies for small-scale farmers using survey, experimental and modeled data. Agric. Syst. 2012, 111:85-95.
14. Cooper P.J.M., Dimes J., Rao K.P.C., Shapiro B., Shiferaw B., Twomlow S. Coping better with current climatic variability in the rain-fed farming systems of Sub Saharan Africa: an essential first step in adapting to future climate change. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2008, 126:24-35.
15. Deaton A., Muellbauer J. An almost ideal demand system. Am. Econ. Rev. 1980, 70(3):312-326.
16. Dercon S., Christiaensen L. Consumption risk, technology adoption and poverty traps: evidence from Ethiopia. J. Dev. Econ. 2011, 96:159-173.
17. Di Falco S., Veronesi M., Yesuf M. Does adaptation to climate change provide food security? A micro-perspective from Ethiopia. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 2011, 93(3):829-846.
18. Di Falco S., Yesuf M., Kohlin G., Ringler C. Estimating the impact of climate change on agriculture in low-income countries: household level evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Environ. Resour. Econ. 2011, 52:457-478.
19. GLSS5 (Ghana Living Standard Survey) GLSS report of the fifth round 2008, Ghana Statistical Service.
20. GSS (Ghana Statistical Survey) Ghana Living Standard Survey Report (GLSS4), 1998/99 2004, Accra, Ghana.
21. GSS (Ghana Statistical Survey) Patterns and Trends of Poverty in Ghana 1991-2006 2007, Accra, Ghana.
22. Gyasi O., Schiffer E., McCarthy N. Community Needs Assessment and Local Water Governance Appraisal in the Upper East Region, Ghana 2006, Draft, Submitted to EPTD Discussion Paper, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA.
23. Hailegiorgis A.B., Kennedy W.G., Rouleau M., Bassett J.K., Coletti M., Balan G.C., Gulden T. An agent-based model of climate change and conflict among pastoralists in East Africa. International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (iEMSs) 2010 International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software Modelling for Environment's Sake, Fifth Biennial Meeting 2010, http://www.iemss.org/iemss2010/index.php?n=Main.Proceedings, D.A. Swayne, W. Yang, A.A. Voinov, A. Rizzoli, T. Filatova (Eds.).
24. Hansen J., Fung I., Lacis A., Rind D., Lebedeff S., Ruedy R., Russell G. Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard institute for space studies. Three-dimensional model. J. Geophys. Res. 1988, 93(8):9341-9364.
25. Hatch G.P., Smith S. The bioeconomic implications of various drought management strategies for a communal cattle herd in the semi-arid savanna of KwaZulu-Natal. Afr. J. Range Forage Sci. 1997, 14(1):16-24.
26. Hertel T., Burke M., Lobell D. The poverty implications of climate-induced crop yield changes by 2030. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2010, 20:577-585.
27. Hertel T., Rosch S. Climate change, agriculture and poverty. Appl. Econ. Perspect. Policy 2010, 1(3):1-31.
28. Ito T., Kurosaki T. Weather risk, wages in kind, and the off-farm labor supply of agricultural households in a developing country. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 2009, 91(3):697-710.
29. Janmaat J., Anputhas M. Development of an agent based coupled economic and hydrological model of the Deep Creek watershed in British Columbia, Canada. International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (iEMSs). 2010 International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software Modelling for Environment's Sake, Fifth Biennial Meeting 2010, http://www.iemss.org/iemss2010/index.php?n=Main.Proceedings, D.A. Swayne, W. Yang, A.A. Voinov, A. Rizzoli, T. Filatova (Eds.).
30. Jung G., Kunstmann H. High-resolution regional climate modeling for the Volta region of West Africa. J. Geophys. Res. 2007, 112:23-108.
31. Kijima Y., Matsumoto T., Yamano T. Nonfarm employment, agricultural shocks, and poverty dynamics: evidence from rural Uganda. Agric. Econ. 2006, 35:459-467.
32. Kniveton D., Smith C., Wood S. Agent-based model simulations of future changes in migration flows for Burkina Faso. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2011, 21:34-40.
33. Knox J., Hess T., Daccache A., Wheeler T. Climate change impacts on crop productivity in Africa and South Asia. Environ. Resour. Lett. 2012, 10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034032.
34. Lobell D., Burke M., Tebaldi C., Mastrandrea M., Falcon W., Naylor R. Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science 2008, 319:607-610.
35. Marohn C., Schreinemachers P., Quang D.V., Berger T., Siripalangkanont P., Nguyen T.T., Cadisch G. A software coupling approach to assess low-cost soil conservation strategies for highland agriculture in Vietnam. Environ. Model. Softw. 2013, 45:116-128.
36. Mendelsohn R., Reinsborough M. A Ricardian analysis of US and Canadian farmland. Clim. Chang. 2007, 81(2007):9-17.
37. McCarl B., Apland J. Validation of linear programming models. South. J. Agric. Econ. 1986, 18:155-164.
38. Mideksa T. Economic and distributional impacts of climate change: the case of Ethiopia. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2010, 20:278-286.
39. Nelson G.C., Rosegrant M.W., Koo J., Robertson R., Sulser T., Zhu T., Ringler C., Msangi S., Palazzo A., Batka M., Magalhaes M., Valmonte-Santos R., Ewing M., Lee D. Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and Costs of Adaptation 2009, Food Policy Report 21, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC, USA.
40. Nolan J., Parker D., van Kooten G.C., Berger T. An overview of computational modeling in agricultural and resource economics. Can. J. Agric. Econ. 2009, 57(4):417-429.
41. Owusu V., Abdulai A., Abdul-Rahman S. Non-farm work and food security among farm households in Northern Ghana. Food Policy 2011, 36:108-118.
42. Pandey S., Bhandari H., Hardy B. Economic costs of drought and rice farmers' coping mechanisms: A cross-country comparative analysis 2007, International Rice Research Institute, Manila.
43. Parry M.L., Rosenzweig C., Iglesias A., Livermore M.G.F. Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2004, 14:53-67.
44. Quang D.V., Siripalangkanont P., Berger T. Ex-ante assessment of soil conservation methods in the uplands of Vietnam: an agent-based modeling approach. Agric. Syst. 2014, 123:108-119.
45. Rosenzweig M.R., Udry C. Rainfall forecasts, weather, and wages over the agricultural production cycle. Am. Econ. Rev. 2014, 104(5):278-283.
46. Sadoulet E., de Janvry A. Quantitative Development Policy Analysis 1995, The John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, London.
47. Schreinemachers P., Berger T. An agent-based simulation model of human-environment interactions in agricultural systems. Environ. Model. Softw. 2011, 26(7):845-859.
48. Schreinemachers P., Berger T., Aune J. Simulating soil fertility and poverty dynamics in Uganda: a bio-economic multi-agent systems approach. Ecol. Econ. 2007, 64:387-401.
49. Schreinemachers P., Berger T., Sirijinda A., Praneetvatakul S. The diffusion of greenhouse agriculture in northern Thailand: combining econometrics and agent-based modeling. Can. J. Agric. Econ. 2009, 57:513-536.
50. Schreinemachers P., Potchanasin C., Berger T., Roygrong S. Agent-based modeling for ex-ante assessment of tree crop technologies: litchis in northern Thailand. Agric. Econ. 2010, 41:519-536.
51. Swallow B. Potential for poverty reduction strategies to address community priorities: case study of Kenya. World Dev. 2005, 33(2):301-321.
52. Thornton P.K., Jones P.G., Alagarswamy G., Andresen J. Spatial variation of crop yield response to climate change in east Africa. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2009, 19(1):54-65.
53. Thornton P.K., Jones P.G., Owiyo T., Kruska R.L., Herrero M., Orindi V., Bhadwal S., Kristjanson P., Notenbaert A., Bekele N., Omolo A. Climate change and poverty in Africa: mapping hotspots of vulnerability. Afr. J. Agric. Resour. Econ. 2008, 2:24-44.
54. Troost C., Berger T. Dealing with Uncertainty in agent-based simulation: farm-level modeling of adaptation to climate change in Southwest Germany. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 2014, 10.1093/ajae/aau076.
55. van Wijk M.T., Rufino M.C., Enahoro D., Parsons D., Silvestri S., Valdivia R.O., Herrero M. A review on farm household modelling with a focus on climate change adaptation and mitigation 2012, CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Copenhagen, Working Paper No. XX.
56. Wang J., Brown D.G., Riolo R., Page S., Agrawal A. Exploratory analyses of local institutions for climate change adaptation in the Mongolian grasslands: an agent-based modeling approach. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2013, 23(2013):1266-1276.
57. Wheeler T., von Braun J. Climate change impacts on global food security. Science 2013, 341:508-513.
58. Wossen T., Berger T., Swamikannuh N., Ramilan T. Climate variability, consumption risk and poverty in semi-arid Northern Ghana: adaptation options for poor farm house-holds. Environ. Dev. 2014, 12:2-15.
59. Yilma T., Berg E., Berger T. The agricultural technology-market linkage under liberalization in Ghana: evidence from micro data. J. Afr. Econ. 2008, 17(1):62-84.
60. Ziervogel G., Bharwani S., Downing T. Adapting to climate variability: pumpkins, people and policy. Nat. Resour. Forum 2006, 30:294-305.