A perspective on model-data surface temperature comparison at the Last Glacial Maximum

Quaternary Science Reviews

Volumn 107, Issue , 2015, Pages 1-10

  Annan, J D ^a   Hargreaves, J C ^a  

^a JAPAN AGENCY FOR MARINE EARTH SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY   (Japan)

Author keywords

Climate model; Last Glacial Maximum; Proxy reconstruction

Indexed keywords

LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM; PROXY RECONSTRUCTION; SURFACE TEMPERATURES;

CLIMATE MODELS;

CLIMATE MODELING; LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM; RECONSTRUCTION; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SURFACE TEMPERATURE; TEMPERATURE ANOMALY;

EID: 84910026075     PISSN: 02773791     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.09.019     Document Type: Review

References (77)

1. Annan J.D., Hargreaves J.C. Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006, 33:L06704.
2. Annan J.D., Hargreaves J.C. Anew global reconstruction of temperature changes at the Last Glacial maximum. Clim. Past 2013, 9(1):367-376. http://www.clim-past.net/9/367/2013/, 10.5194/cp-9-367-2013.
3. Annan J.D., Hargreaves J.C., Ohgaito R., Abe-Ouchi A., Emori S. Efficiently constraining climate sensitivity with paleoclimate simulations. Sci. Online Lett. Atmos. 2005, 1:181-184.
4. Ballantyne A.P., Lavine M., Crowley T.J., Liu J., Baker P.B. Meta-analysis of tropical surface temperatures during the Last Glacial Maximum. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2005, 32:L05712. 10.1029/2004GL021217.
5. Ballarotta M., Brodeau L., Brandefelt J., Lundberg P., Döös K. Last Glacial Maximum world ocean simulations at eddy-permitting and coarse resolutions: do eddies contribute to a better consistency between models and palaeoproxies?. Clim. Past 2013, 9(6):2669-2686. http://www.clim-past.net/9/2669/2013/, 10.5194/cp-9-2669-2013.
6. Bartlein P.J., Harrison S.P., Brewer S., Connor S., Davis B.A.S., Gajewski K., Guiot J., Harrison-Prentice T.I., Henderson A., Peyron O., Prentice I.C., Scholze M., Seppaä H., Shuman B., Sugita S., Thompson R.S., Viau A.E., Williams J., Wu H. Pollen-based continental climate reconstructions at 6 and 21 ka: a global synthesis. Clim. Dyn. 2011, 37(3):775-802.
7. Braconnot P., et al. Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum, Part 1: experiments and large-scale features. Clim. Past 2007, 3(2):261-277.
8. Braconnot P., et al. Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum-Part 2: feedbacks with emphasis on the location of the ITCZ and mid-and high latitudes heat budget. Clim. Past 2007, 3(2):279-296.
9. Braconnot Pascale, Harrison Sandy P., Kageyama Masa, Bartlein Patrick J., Masson-Delmotte Valerie, Abe-Ouchi Ayako, Otto-Bliesner Bette, Zhao Yan Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data. Nat. Clim. Change 2012, 2(6):417-424.
10. Brewer S., Guiot J., Torre F., et al. Mid-Holocene climate change in Europe: a data-model comparison. Clim. Past 2007, 3(3):499-512.
11. CLIMAP Project Members The surface of the ice-age earth. Science 1976, 191(4232):1131-1137.
12. CLIMAP Project Members Seasonal Reconstruction of the Earth's Surface at the Last Glacial Maximum 1981.
13. CLIMAP Project Members The Last Interglacial ocean. Quat. Res. 1984, 21(2):123-224.
14. Crowley T.J. CLIMAP SSTs re-revisited. Clim. Dyn. 2000, 16(4):241-255.
15. Crucifix M. Does the Last Glacial Maximum constrain climate sensitivity?. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006, 33:L18701. 10.1029/2006GL027137.
16. Dong B., Valdes P.J. Simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum climates using a general circulation model: prescribed versus computed sea surface temperatures. Clim. Dyn. 1998, 14(7-8):571-591.
17. Farrera I., Harrison S.P., Prentice I.C., Ramstein G., Guiot J., Bartlein P.J., Bonnefille R., Bush M., Cramer Wv, Von Grafenstein U., et al. Tropical climates at the Last Glacial Maximum: a new synthesis of terrestrial palaeoclimate data. i. vegetation, lake-levels and geochemistry. Clim. Dyn. 1999, 15(11):823-856.
18. Ganopolski Andrey, Rahmstorf Stefan, Petoukhov Vladimir, Claussen Martin Simulation of modern and glacial climates with a coupled global model of intermediate complexity. Nature 1998, 391(6665):351-356.
19. Gates W Lawrence The numerical simulation of ice-age climate with a global general circulation model. J.Atmos. Sci. 1976, 33(10):1844-1873.
20. Gersonde Rainer, Crosta Xavier, Abelmann Andrea, Armand Leanne Sea-surface temperature and sea ice distribution of the Southern Ocean at the EPILOG Last Glacial Maximuma circum-antarctic view based on siliceous microfossil records. Quat. Sci. Rev. 2005, 24(7):869-896.
21. Grotch Stanley L., MacCracken Michael C. The use of general circulation models to predict regional climatic change. J.Clim. 1991, 4(3):286-303.
22. Guilderson Thomas P., Fairbanks Richard G., Rubenstone James L. Tropical temperature variations since 20,000 years ago: modulating interhemispheric climate change. Science 1994, 263(5147):663-665.
23. Guiot J., Boreux J.J., Braconnot P., Torre F. Data-model comparison using fuzzy logic in paleoclimatology. Clim. Dyn. 1999, 15(8):569-581.
24. Hansen J., Lacis A., Rind D., Russell G., Stone P., Fung I., Ruedy R., Lerner J. Climate sensitivity: analysis of feedback mechanisms. AGU Geophysical Monograph 1984, vol. 29:130-163. American Geophysical Union.
25. Hansen James E., Lacis Andrew A. Sun and dust versus greenhouse gases: an assessment of their relative roles in global climate change. Nature 1990, 346:713-719.
26. Hargreaves J.C., Abe-Ouchi A., Annan J.D. Linking glacial and future climates through an ensemble of GCM simulations. Clim. Past 2007, 3(1):77-87.
27. Hargreaves J.C., Paul A., Ohgaito R., Abe-Ouchi Ayako, Annan James D. Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis?. Clim. Past Aug 2011, 7(3):917-933. 10.5194/cp-7-917-2011.
28. Hargreaves J.C., Annan J.D., Yoshimori M., Abe-Ouchi A. Can the Last Glacial Maximum constrain climate sensitivity?. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2012, 39(24). ISSN 1944-8007. 10.1029/2012GL053872.
29. Hargreaves Julia C., Annan James D., Ohgaito Rumi, Paul Andre, Abe-Ouchi Ayako Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene. Clim. Past 2013, 9(2):811-823.
30. Harrison S.P. Palaeoenvironmental data sets and model evaluation in PMIP. Proceedings of the Third PMIP Workshop. WCRP-111; WMO/TD-no. 1007 2000, 9-25. La Huardiére, Canada. P. Braconnot (Ed.).
31. Harrison S.P., Bartlein P.J., Brewer S., Prentice I.C., Boyd M., Hessler I., Holmgren K., Izumi K., Willis K. Climate model benchmarking with glacial and mid-Holocene climates. Clim. Dyn. 2013, 1-18.
32. Hays J.D., Imbrie J., Shackleton N.J. Variations in the earth's orbit: pacemaker of the ice ages. Science 1976, 194(4270):1121-1132.
33. Hewitt C., Stouffer R., Broccoli A., Mitchell J., Valdes Paul J. The effect of ocean dynamics in a coupled GCM simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum. Clim. Dyn. 2003, 20(2-3):203-218.
34. Hoffert Martin I., Covey Curt Deriving global climate sensitivity from palaeoclimate reconstructions. Nature 1992, 360(6404):573-576.
35. Holden Philip B., Edwards N.R., Oliver K.I.C., Lenton T.M., Wilkinson R.D. Aprobabilistic calibration of climate sensitivity and terrestrial carbon change in GENIE-1. Clim. Dyn. Jul 2009, 35(5):1-22. 10.1007/s00382-009-0630-8.
36. Houghton J.T., Ding Y., Griggs D.J., Noguer M., Van Der Linden P.J., Dai X., Maskell K., Johnson C.A. Climate Change 2001: Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2001, Cambridge University Press.
37. Jansen, Overpeck J., Briffa K.R., Duplessy J.-C., Joos F., Masson-Delmotte V., Olago D., Otto-Bliesner B., Peltier W.R., Rahmstorf S., Ramesh R., Raynaud D., Rind D., Solomina O., Villalba R., Zhang D. Palaeoclimate. Climate Change 2007: the Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA., (Chapter 6).
38. Joussaume S., Taylor K.E. The paleoclimate modeling intercomparison project. Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP): Proceedings of the Third PMIP Workshop, Pages 43-50, Canada, 1999 2000, World Meteorological Organization, TD-1007. P. Braconnot (Ed.).
39. Kageyama M., Laine A., Abe-Ouchi A., Braconnot P., Cortijo E., Crucifix M., De Vernal A., Guiot J., Hewitt C.D., Kitoh A., Kucera M., Marti O., Ohgaito R., Otto-Bliesner B., Peltier W.R., Rosell-Mele A., Vettoretti G., Weber S.L., Yu Y. Last Glacial Maximum temperatures over the North Atlantic, Europe and western Siberia: a comparison between PMIP models, MARGO sea-surface temperatures and pollen-based reconstructions. Quat. Sci. Rev. 2006, 25(17-18):2082-2102. 10.1016/j.quascirev.2006.02.010.
40. Kageyama Masa, Peyron Odile, Pinot Sophie, Tarasov Pavel, Guiot J., Joussaume Sylvie, Ramstein Gilles The Last Glacial Maximum climate over Europe and western Siberia: a PMIP comparison between models and data. Clim. Dyn. 2001, 17(1):23-43.
41. Kitoh Akio, Murakami Shigenori, Koide Hiroshi Asimulation of the Last Glacial Maximum with a coupled atmosphere-ocean gcm. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2001, 28(11):2221-2224.
42. Kucera M., Rosell-Melé A., Schneider R., Waelbroeck C., Weinelt M. Multiproxy approach for the reconstruction of the glacial ocean surface (MARGO). Quat. Sci. Rev. 2005, 24(7-9):813-819.
43. Lea David W., Pak Dorothy K., Spero Howard J. Climate impact of late Quaternary equatorial pacific sea surface temperature variations. Science 2000, 289(5485):1719-1724.
44. Levavasseur G., Vrac M., Roche D.M., Paillard D., Martin A., Vandenberghe J. Present and LGM permafrost from climate simulations: contribution of statistical downscaling. Clim. Past 2011, 7(4):1225-1246. http://www.clim-past.net/7/1225/2011/, 10.5194/cp-7-1225-2011.
45. Linsley Braddock K., Rosenthal Yair, Oppo Delia W. Holocene evolution of the Indonesian throughflow and the western Pacific warm pool. Nat. Geosci. 2010, 3(8):578-583.
46. Mahowald N., Kohfeld K., Hannson M., Balkanski Y., Harrison S.P., Prentice I.C., Schulz M., Rodhe H. Dust sources during the Last Glacial maximum and current climate: a comparison of model results with paleodata from ice cores and marine sediments. J.Geophys. Res. 1999, 104:15895-15916.
47. Manabe S. The dependence of atmospheric temperature on the concentration of carbon dioxide. Global Effects of Environmental Pollution 1968, 25-29. D. Reidel Publishing Co. S.F. Singer (Ed.).
48. Manabe S., Smagorinsky J., Strickler R.F. Simulated climatology of a general circulation model with a hydrological cycle. Mon. Weather Rev. 1965, 93:769-798.
49. Manabe Syukuro, Broccoli A.J. Acomparison of climate model sensitivity with data from the Last Glacial Maximum. J.Atmos. Sci. 1985, 42(23):2643-2651.
50. MARGO Project Members Constraints on the magnitude and patterns of ocean cooling at the Last Glacial Maximum. Nat. Geosci. 2009, 2(2):127-132. 10.1038/NGEO411.
51. Mix A.C., Bard E., Schneider R. Environmental processes of the ice age: land, oceans, glaciers (EPILOG). Quat. Sci. Rev. 2001, 20(4):627-657.
52. Otto-Bliesner B.L., Schneider R., Brady E.C., Kucera M., Abe-Ouchi A., Bard E., Braconnot P., Crucifix M., Hewitt C.D., Kageyama M. Acomparison of PMIP2 model simulations and the MARGO proxy reconstruction for tropical sea surface temperatures at Last Glacial Maximum. Clim. Dyn. 2009, 32(6):799-815.
53. Peltier W Richard Ice age paleotopography. Science 1994, New York then Washington pages 195-195.
54. Peltier W.R. Global glacial isostasy and the surface of the ice-age earth: the ice-5g (vm2) model and grace. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 2004, 32:111-149.
55. Peyron Odile, Guiot Joël, Cheddadi Rachid, Tarasov Pavel, Reille Maurice, de Beaulieu Jacques-Louis, Bottema Sytze, Andrieu Valérie Climatic reconstruction in europe for 18,000 yr bp from pollen data. Quat. Res. 1998, 49(2):183-196.
56. Pinot S., Ramstein G., Harrison S.P., Prentice I.C., Guiot J., Stute M., Joussaume S. Tropical paleoclimates at the Last Glacial Maximum: comparison of paleoclimate modeling intercomparison project (PMIP) simulations and paleodata. Clim. Dyn. 1999, 15(11):857-874.
57. Ramstein G., Kageyama M., Guiot J., Wu H., Hély C., Krinner G., Brewer S. How cold was Europe at the Last Glacial Maximum? A synthesis of the progress achieved since the first PMIP model-data comparison. Clim. Past 2007, 3(2):331-339. http://www.clim-past.net/3/331/2007/, 10.5194/cp-3-331-2007.
58. Rind D., Peteet D. Terrestrial conditions at the Last Glacial Maximum and CLIMAP sea-surface temperature estimates: are they consistent?. Quat. Res. 1985, 24(1):1-22.
59. Rohling E.J., Sluijs A., Dijkstra H.A., Köhler P., van de Wal R.S.W., von der Heydt A.S., Beerling D.J., Berger A., Bijl P.K., Crucifix M., et al. Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity. Nature 2012, 491:683-691.
60. Rosell-Melé Antoni Project takes a new look at past sea surface temperatures. Eos Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 1998, 79(33):393-394.
61. Sakaguchi Koichi, Zeng Xubin, Brunke Michael A. Temporal-and spatial-scale dependence of three cmip3 climate models in simulating the surface temperature trend in the twentieth century. J.Clim. 2012, 25(7):2456-2470.
62. Sarnthein Michael, Gersonde Rainer, Niebler S., Pflaumann U., Spielhagen Robert, Thiede Jörn, Wefer Gerold, Weinelt Martin Overview of glacial Atlantic Ocean mapping (GLAMAP 2000). Paleoceanography 2003, 18(2).
63. Schäfer-Neth Christian, Paul A. The Atlantic Ocean at the Last Glacial Maximum: 1. objective mapping of the GLAMAP sea-surface conditions. The South Atlantic in the Late Quaternary 2004, 531-548. Springer.
64. Schmidt G.A., Annan J.D., Bartlein P.J., Cook B.I., Guilyardi E., Hargreaves J.C., Harrison S.P., Kageyama M., LeGrande A.N., Konecky B., et al. Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5. Clim. Past 2014, 10(1):221-250.
65. Schmittner A., Urban N.M., Shakun J.D., Mahowald N.M., Clark P.U., Bartlein P.J., Mix A.C., Rosell-Melé A. Climate sensitivity estimated from temperature reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum. Science 2011, 334(6061):1385-1388.
66. Schneider von Deimling T., Ganopolski A., Held H., Rahmstorf S. How cold was the Last Glacial Maximum?. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006, 33(14):L14709. 10.1029/2006GL026484.
67. Schneider von Deimling T., Held H., Ganopolski A., Rahmstorf S. Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climate. Clim. Dyn. 2006, 27(2-3):149-163.
68. Strandberg Gustav, Brandefelt Jenny, Kjellström Erik, Smith Benjamin High-resolution regional simulation of Last Glacial Maximum climate in europe. Tellus A 2011, 63(1):107-125.
69. Tarasov P.E., Peyron O., Guiot J., Brewer S., Volkova V.S., Bezusko L.G., Dorofeyuk N.I., Kvavadze E.V., Osipova I.M., Panova N.K. Last Glacial Maximum climate of the former Soviet Union and Mongolia reconstructed from pollen and plant macrofossil data. Clim. Dyn. 1999, 15(3):227-240.
70. Taylor Karl E., Stouffer Ronald J., Meehl Gerald A. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2012, 93(4):485-498.
71. Telford R.J., Li C., Kucera M. Mismatch between the depth habitat of planktonic foraminifera and the calibration depth of SST transfer functions may bias reconstructions. Clim. Past 2013, 9(2):859-870.
72. Weaver Andrew J., Eby Michael, Fanning Augustus F., Wiebe Edward C. Simulated influence of carbon dioxide, orbital forcing and ice sheets on the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum. Nature 1998, 394(6696):847-853.
73. Webb Robert S., Rind David H., Lehman Scott J., Healy Richard J., Sigman Daniel Influence of ocean heat transport on the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum. Nature 1997, 385(6618):695-699.
74. Weber S.L., Drijfhout S.S., Abe-Ouchi A., Crucifix M., Eby M., Ganopolski A., Murakami S., Otto-Bliesner B., Peltier W.R. The modern and glacial overturning circulation in the atlantic ocean in PMIP coupled model simulations. Clim. Past 2007, 3(1):51-64.
75. Williams J., Barry R.G., Washington W.M. Simulation of the atmospheric circulation using the NCAR global circulation model with ice age boundary conditions. J.Appl. Meteorol. 1974, 13(3):305-317.
76. Yoshimori M., Hargreaves J.C., Annan J.D., Yokohata T., Abe-Ouchi Ayako Dependency of feedbacks on forcing and climate state in perturbed parameter ensembles. J.Clim. 2011, 24:6440-6455.
77. Zhang Xu, Lohmann Gerrit, Knorr Gregor, Xu Xu Different ocean states and transient characteristics in Last Glacial Maximum simulations and implications for deglaciation. Clim. Past 2013, 9:2319-2333.